©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
ThinkSmallCellWebinarSeries
SmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight
DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell
CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkTechnologyResearch
KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts
Dec 2016
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
Agenda
§ IntroducMon,DavidChambers,ThinkSmallCell
§ AnalystForecastsandAssumpMons§ CarolineGabriel,RethinkResearch§ KyungMun,MobileExperts
§ QuesMonandAnswerSession
§ Conclusion
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
AverageWirelessConnecMonSpeed
AverageworldwidedataratesmeasuredbyuserdevicesSource:Opensignal
2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HSPA LTE Wi-Fi
4.316.52
8.77
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HSPA LTE Wi-Fi
4.316.52
8.77
3.3
17.4
10.82014
2016
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
Introducingsomenewchoices
LWA,LWIP Wi-FiAggregaMonboostLTEandWi-Fiinparallel
CompaMblehandsetsandsomecorenetworkequipment
CBRS StandardLTEat3.5GHzFullcellularserviceasstandalone/roaming
DynamicallyallocatedspectrumfromcentraldatabaseserverUSonlyschemefornow
LAA AugmentsLTElicensedwithmodifiedLTEat5GHzBoostsdownloadcapacity
NewphysicallayerchipsListen-Before-Talkrequireslocalintelligence,smallercells
eLAA AddsuplinktoLAAat5GHz SameasLAAbutbi-direcMonal
MulteFire ModifiedLTEat5GHzDownlinkanduplinkCanbeindependentofcellularnetwork
SameaseLAA
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
AnalystViewpointSmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight
DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell
CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkResearch
KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts
Smallcelldeploymentoutlook
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Millions
ofn
ewunitsdep
loye
dpe
ryea
r
Residential Enterpriseprivate Enterprisepublic
Urbanpublic Ruralandremote
Rethinkmethodology
Highestgrowth(79%CAGR)inurban
Densitydrivingnewecosystem
Tippingpointshavebeenlaterthanexpected(2015forecast)
Enterprisetrends
NewdeploymentsofsmallcellsbyenvironmentSourceRethinkTechnologyResearch2016
Theimpactofnewspectrum
CBRSinUSand3.5GHzelsewhere
LTEinunlicensedand5Gdynamicspectrum
NewlicensedbandsandmmWave
Allthesearefocusedondensity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Licensedsub-6GHzband
Unlicensed CBRSand3.5GHz
6GHzto20GHz
Above20GHz
%New
dep
loym
ents
2017 2021
%ofnewsmallcelldeploymentsbyspectrumband.Source:RethinkTechnologyResearch2016
Pathto5GLongsurvivalforLTE
NTTDocomoDeutscheTelekom
Variabletimescalesfor5GLeadingusecases–fixedwireless,largeevents45%ofMNOswillwaitafter2023tomakefirstmovesButdefinitive5Gelementswillstartearlier–C-RAN,density,MEC
Manyofthesestartinsmallcelllayer,andwillreshapeit
RETHINKTECHNOLOGYRESEARCH2016
8
79
69
47
1613
45
5
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5Gradio DenseHetNet C-RANandMEC
%ofM
NOs
Before2020 2020-2023 2024andlater
%ofMNOsplanningtoembarkon5GandHetNet.Source:Rethink
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
AnalystViewpoint
SmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight
DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell
CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkResearch
KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts
SmallCellShipmentForecast
CarrierspreferunlicensedLTE
Unlicensedspectrumprovideslower“costperbit”uniteconomics
IncreasingUseofUnlicensedLTEAPs
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
AudiencePoll
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
Q&ASession
SmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight
DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell
CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkResearch
KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts
©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.
Followup
• FindawiderangeofinsightsandinformaMon– www.thinksmallcell.com– Signupforournewsleber– ContactusregardingmarkeMngandwhitepapers
• Contacteitherofouranalystsforfollowup– CarolineGabriel,RethinkResearch– KyungMun,MobileExperts
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