Bled, March 3 2011 Imagining the worstElightened catastrophism
Can we even look at it ?
Apocalypse by modernityIs the worst already there ?
World demography
2
3
World population
European middle age evolution
Combining biological S curves
Exp
an
sion
Saturation
Decline
Creation
stabilization(renaissance)
1100 1300 1500
Demography : simulation 1.8 children/woman limit
Inversion of the age pyramid
maximum then decline
Europe+CEI+Amérique du nord
Amérique du sud
Chine+Japon+Océanie
Inde+Asie sud est+moyen orient
Afrique
Océans, Espace
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200
World population
Men Women
Europe
Men Women
Africa
Men Women
Russian Federation
Men Women
Asia
Men Women
Northern America
Men Women
Latin America
Men Women
Global urbanization and demography
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 13
Shrinking cities
DetroitGlasgowLeipzig…
Collapse :Jared
Diamond
Planetary garden
To take care fo natureHumans have to live closeTo nature
The evolution of human species
is worrying
A challenge to reason
What happened ?
In 1953, Martin Heidegger, in an engineering school, talks « Die frage der teknik » :
1- the essence of technology is nothing technical
2- the essence of technology is the being itself
3- the essence of « modern » technologyis the ge-stell
In the most extreme danger also grows salvationInhabit earth as a poet (Hölderlin)
Industrial revolution1750-1980 in Europe
Steel, cement Combustion
Taylorism
Microbiology
Cognitive revolution1980-2180
Polymers Electricity
Optronics
Bio-ecology
Con
verg
ing
Towards a new « essence of technology »
Internet penetration 2010world 28,7%
Au 74,8Fr 68,9Sp 62,6It 51,7Fi 85,3 D 79,1UK 82,5Port 48,1Swe 92,5Isl 97,6Nl 88,6Be 77,8Ir 65,8Dk 86,1
India 6,9Pakistan 10,4Kazakhstan 34,3Indonesia 12,3Thaïland 26,3China 31,6Vietnam 27,1Singapour 77,8Malaisia 64,6Taiwan 70,1Japan 78,2Hong-Kong 68,8Korea 81,1
Venezuela 34,2Mexico 27,2Brazil 37,8Peru 27,0Argentina 64,4Chile 50,0
Canada 77,7USA 77,3
Algeria 13,6Egypt 21,2South Africa 10,8Tunisia 34,0Morocco
33,0
Source : internetworldstats.com
In 2025, more than 75% on the whole planet. Polycultural Internet. Telecom operators challenging banks…
Se 55,9Sk 74,3Sv 64,8Bo 31,2Ro 35,5Po 58,4Cz 65,5 Ru 42,8Gr 43,2Hu 61,8Cr 50Mn 44,1Ma 51Li 59,3Es 75,1La 67,8 Al 43,5
Cyberspace declaration of independance (Barlow, 1996)Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather.
We have no elected government, nor are we likely to have one, so I address you with no greater authority than that with which liberty itself always speaks. I declare the global social space we are building to be naturally independent of the tyrannies you seek to impose on us. You have no moral right to rule us nor do you possess any methods of enforcement we have true reason to fear.
Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. You have neither solicited nor received ours. We did not invite you. You do not know us, nor do you know our world. Cyberspace does not lie within your borders.Libertarians and Tea party…
The time barrier
We are not living in an information society, but in a« disinformation society »
Classical economics assumed that actors were perfectly informed lucid and watchful. The basic assumption being false, the theory is not valid any more
Desorientation is everywhere : Hyperchoice (Toffler), cognitive overload…
Vulnerability of the human brain
TV : less than 1h/day
TV : more than 3h/day
Instability of the 90-2010: 176 crisis during the last 25 years(Stiglitz)MexicoIndonesia ThaïlandKorea and even JapanRussiaArgentina…New techSubprime…
What is the merchant ruling class doing,
since it has unshared power : Bubbles !
Will the next bubbleBe a green one?
A new « essence of technology » ? :
Hannah Arendt (1958) : Persuasion
-> Ge-stell of the consumer’s motivations, storytelling
Web 2.0 (2005) and great software companies (google)
->Ge-stell of the user’s logic
Money overflow : towards world hyperinflation ?
Control of money on politics through media (Murdoch)
-> From democracy to lobbycracy
A large and growing number of products consist of many different components that are manufactured in various parts of the world… The strawberry yogurt… by wuppertal
Trade in intermediates accounts for the largest part of overall trade
Larger supply chains
Long supply chains are more vulnerable
31
From hyper capitalism to mafia capitalism ?
Natural resources looting continue
US Materials Intensity of Use
Ausubel and Langford eds.National Academy, 1997
Global resources scarcity
34
QuickTime™ et undécompresseur
sont requis pour visionner cette image.
36
Temperature increase 1990-2050Business as usual IPCC scenario
Rains and droughts
Business as usual IPCC scenario 2050How many climate refugees ? 200M ?
Hurricanes
Who will stop it ?
Pollutions
Forest destruction between 2002 and 2006Who will protect nature ?
Amazonia, Mato grosso
Epidemias
Other type of rescue and population control
Source : rebuilding america’s defence reportBy « new american century » (2000)
(Donald Kagan, Gary Schmitt, Paul Wolfowitz…)
Will nature protection become the n°1 military concern ?
2 missions in the scealed dome. From 26 september 1991 to 26 september 1993. From march to september 1994
Biosphere 2 : Noah’s arch of the third millenium
How many different species for a stable ecosystem?How many different species for a stable ecosystem?
Whenever youstudy or not,there is no futurefor you…Educated
unemployedAnd hunger riots
Rich and poor people at 100m on the whole planet
The critical times are coming
Thich Quang Duc, 73 years old 11 june 1963…
End of Viet Nam war : 1975It takes a longtime to understand !
1980-2020 : Disarray of the show business society
21st century foresight
Ended by a systemic crisis2010-2020
2020-2060 : Education and public works
21st century foresight
2060-2100 : Planetary (andinterplanetary?)
gardens
21st century foresight
O’Neill’s artificial planets
Declining : Rising :
From heteronomia to autonomia : the values
De WaalSimondonCyrulnik
DominationConquestPerformance
EmpathyIndividuationResilience
Authors :
To Homo Sapiens
Foresight for 21st century
From Homo Coca-colensis
21st century: A challenge to reason
Thanks for your attention