Christophe PILLOT [email protected]
+33(0)1 4778 4600
The worldwide battery
market 2011-2025
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT BATTERIES 2012
October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2011 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
SPONSORS
2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
80 SPEAKERS 24th october
Keynotes
AVICENNE
HP
TOYOTA
SB LIMOTIVE
BAR ILAN UNIV.
GTAI
J. PETERSEN
R&D TOYOTA FRAUNHOFER INST. US DOE R. BRODD IFP CEA SHMUEL DE-LEON SWEL
Portable TI INTEL ST ERICSSON CALL2RECYCLE
Battery Managmt. CHE EV INTERTEK RWTH AACHEN HEL LITHIUM BALANCE
3
25th october
Car Makers FORD PSA RENAULT DAIMLER TOSHIBA
Raw Mat. UMICORE PRAYON BASF CLARIANT TODA KOGYO QINGDAO
Manu-facturing MEGTEC POLYTYPE EIRICH SOVEMA
Raw Mat. DOW DUPONT DREAM WEAVER
Manu-facturing KROENERT PEC SCHENK
Raw Mat. FMC HITACHI ARKEMA JSR ENTEGRIS
Future ROLANDBERGER ELEMENT ENERGY MANZ TUBINGEN BUHLER
26th october
Safety SAE CELGARD MIJOBIL A&D
Battery NATUREO FINANCES GS YUASA SAFT LECLANCHE
Safety ETTEPLAN INERIS RECHARGE EUROBAT
Battery BASF-OVONIC POWERGENIX IKERLAN ILZRO-ALABC
Automotive LG CHEM
Energy Storage A123 ALTAIRNANO EDF IMTECH
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
AVICENNE PROFILE
Creation: 1992
Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA
AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
4 consultants in Paris
Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy
with in-depth research
The Rechargeable Battery market
21st Edition
Customized
survey
4
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH
TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
Conferences & Exhibitions
Top management contacts network > 17 000 contacts
In Depth analysis Of applications Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
Battery Users,
OEM
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
Safety
Substitution technologies:
SuperCap, Fuel cells
5
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES
WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATOFINA - ARKEMA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA DGA
DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI ITS
JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT
SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER
6
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
REALITY 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Mill
ion
HEV
po
we
red
by
LIB
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2011
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
AVICENNE 2007-2011
7
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
OUTLINE
THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2011/2012
LIB VALUE CHAIN
LIB RAW MATERIAL MARKET
2020 & 2025 FORECASTS
CONCLUSIONS
8
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
9
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2011
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
211 M Portable
PCs
65 M Tablets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2011
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000 2011
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Y
ear
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2011
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2010
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
10
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2011
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
>4 200 M cells – 28 000 MWh
9 700 M$
CAGR 2006/2011
+21% per year in Volume
+13% per year in value
11
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2011
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
> 4 200M cells – 28 000 MWh
9 700 M$
CAGR 2006/2011
+21% per year in Volume
+13% per year in value
12
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M
$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN
13
CATHODE SUPPLIERS
63 OOO T in 2011
Revenues: 1,8 B$
CAGR 06/11: +13%
ANODE SUPPLIERS
32 200 T
Revenues: 0,55 B$
CAGR 06/11: 9%
ELECTROLYTE
SUPPLIERS
21 000 T
Revenues: 0,4 B$
CAGR 06/11: 17%
SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS
440 M m²
Revenues: 0,8 B$
CAGR 06/11: 15%
CELL
MANUFACTURE
RS
Revenues:
9 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 0,5 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURE
RS
Revenues:
11 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
BINDER SUPPLIERS
4 800 Tons
Revenues: 0,15 B$
CAGR 06/11: 12%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS
BY CHEMISTRY
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
2
01
0
20
11
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials for LIB
in Tons, 2000-2011
Cathode active materials for LIB,
% of volume, 2011
14
LiCoO2 43%
NMC 32%
NCA 6%
LMO 11%
LFP 8%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2020
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials 2000-
2020 - Tons
Cathode active materials in
2011: 63 000 Tons
15
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices: 2010-2020: +11% per year in volume
HEV 3,7 M HEV/year in 2020 35% LIB
P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020 100% LIB
EV 1M EV/year in 2020 100% LIB
LCO 43%
NMC 32%
NCA 6%
LMO 11%
LFP 8%
Cathode active materials in
2020: 250 000 Tons
LCO 20%
NMC 40%
NCA 7%
LMO 19%
LFP 14%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2011
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SANYO
SONY
PANASONIC
SDI
LGC
BYD
Lishen
Maxell
ATL
BAK
A123
Others
ARTIFICIAL MCMB NATURAL
Amorphous METAL
16
Natural graphite is more & more used
Note:
MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Natural Graphite
59%
Artificial Graphite
30%
MCMB 8%
Amorphous 2%
Si or Sn Type 1%
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2011
LIB separator market, M$,
CAGR 2001/2011: +19%
LIB Separator supplier, market
share in 2011
17
Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…
ASAHI 25%
TORAY-TONEN
21% SUMITOMO 1% ENTEK
3%
SK 12%
CELGARD 26%
UBE 7%
Others 5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
M$
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
21 200 TONS IN 2011
LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2001/2011: +19%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market
share in 2011
18
Ube 11%
Mitsubishi 24%
In-House 4%
Tomiyama 3%
PANAX-ETEC 21%
Zhangjiagang Guotai-
Huarong 19%
Others 18%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Ton
s
Cellular Portable PC Tablets
Power tools Auto Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.
Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.
LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)
Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).
So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.
19
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
2011-2025
Portable PCs, net-book
Cellular Phones, Smartphones
Tablets
Camcorders
Cordless Tools, Gardening tools
Digital Camera
Games, MP3
Cordless Phones
Shavers, Toothbrush,
RC Cars
E-bikes
Security lighting
Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV
Energy Storage
Others
Applications covered Parameters analysis
20
Main segment trends
Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)
Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor
2011 -2020 Forecasts
OEM strategies and positions
Main drivers & limiters
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
21
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICE
FORECASTS 2011-2020
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
OTHERS
INDIA
ASIA
CHINA
JAPAN
EUROPE
USA
Cellular phone demand (M Units)
CAGR 2010-2020: +6%
Cellular Phone market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phone
trends
Pouch cell ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2010-2020
Polymer penetration: 16% -> 33%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Pouch
Prismatic
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
22
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2011-2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Emerging
Mature
Portable PC demand (M Units)
2010-2020 CAGR: +10%
Portable PC market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))
ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cells for portable PC trends
Thinner cells
Pouch cells penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 23% in 2020
> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cell demand 2010-2020
Polymer penetration: 7% -> 23%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Pouch
Prismatic
Cylindrical
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
2025 LIB FORECASTS
EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
MW
h
Others
E-bikes
Household devices
Toys
MP3
Video Games
Digital Camera
Camcorders
Cordless Phones
Power Tools
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (except Auto)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (Except Auto)
23
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/ye
ar
Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr
Laminates IIT - March 2012 (1)
(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference – Slide p 10
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LONG TERM HEV FORECAST
FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020
0,9
1,7
3,7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2015 2020
Mill
ion
AVICENNE (Feb 2012)
AVICENNE (Oct 2009)
AABC (2011)
IIT (March 2011)
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)
Roland Berger (Mini August 2011)
Nomura (March 2009)
24
AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC
COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS
DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST
25
Li-ion penetration in electronic
devices & HEV
(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario
(2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario
(3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,
(4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009
HEV powered by LIB
forecasts from 2008 to 2011
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2008 2009 2010 2011 M
illio
n H
EV p
ow
ere
d b
y LI
B
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
Cellular Phones
(to=1994)
Portable PCs (to=1994)
Power Tools (to=2004)
HEV Avicenne (to=2010)
HEV Avicenne 2 (to=2010)
HEV IIT (to=2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Li-i
on
pen
etra
tio
n in
ele
ctro
nic
de
vice
s &
HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LIB BUSINESS
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
26
More & more incidents & accidents
All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned
Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
27
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE
>50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500
PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US
Sony BYD
LG Chem JCI
A123 Sanyo Ener1
Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASA SB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - Compact … Nissan - Renault (UK)
Toshiba Blue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen
BAK SAFT US
SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy
Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LIB BATTERY COST
Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)
Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :
CAPEX,
labor cost,
R&D
Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)
Raw material needs / mAh
Electrode process Yield
Assembly Process Yield
Cell manufacturing cost
Module manufacturing cost
Pack assembly cost
…
Costs analysis Battery price in 2011
$/kWh
28
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
LIB 18650
cell
LIB EV Cell
LIB pack for EV
LIB HEV cell
LIB pack for HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2011-2020
LIB cell average cost
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
29
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode cost
Cathode cost 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Cel
l
Pac
k
Cel
l
Pac
k
Cel
l
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
Cell Manufacturing
Other Materials
Electrolyte
Separator
Anode
Cathode 2015* 2020* 2011*
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
EV FORECASTS
2011-2020
EV sold, in million units,
worldwide, 2010 - 2020
EV impact on the LIB & raw
material market is HUGE
30
IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale
IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale
Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009
Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes
AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Power Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2011-2020
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery
needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020
Total battery demand (MWh)
2000 – 2025
31
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M
Wh
NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2005 2010 2015 2020
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
32
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
ries
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
(+ EDLC
)
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
54%
MICRO HYBRID
40%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
TAKEAWAYS
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices
For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH
LIB begin really to compete in 2012
P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020
EV expectations attract large Chemical companies
New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards
HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020
P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020
Micro-hybrid will achieve 40%
Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value
Battery Market 2010-2020
CAGR = +8%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2020
33
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M
$
Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1990 2000 2010 2020 M
Wh
Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012
Nice, FRANCE
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
34