The Two Giants: Energy Policy in China and the United States
Gilley: Authoritarian vs. Democratic EnvironmentalismAuthoritarian –concentrates
authority in few executive agencies manned by capable and uncorrupt elites seeking to improve environmental outcomes
Democratic--spreads authority over several levels and agencies of government, including representative legislatures, and that encourages direct public participation from a wide cross-section of society
Gilley: Authoritarian Environmentalism in China“Citizen participation is limited
to learning and obeying state policies.” p. 291
China – energy governance National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) -primary policymaking and regulatory authority in the energy sector,
National Energy Administration (NEA) (formed 2008) key energy regulator for the country approves new energy projects sets domestic wholesale energy prices implements central government's energy policies,
National Energy Commission (formed 2010) – coordinate energy policy among the various agencies under the State Council
China’s boom Average annual growth
rate 2000-10: 10% From 1990 to 2009,
moved from net exporter of oil to world’s second largest net importer
World’s largest producer and consumer of coal –46% world’s coal consumption
US still 2x net oil importer
China – National Oil Companies China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) leading upstream player in China
publicly-listed arm PetroChina, together account for roughly 60 % domestic oil
and 80% natural gas output China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation
(Sinopec) downstream activities (refining and distribution)
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): offshore oil exploration and production
China - Coal
Oil, Coal consumption – US v ChinaCOAL
US 2010 – 1.0 billion short tons (flat or declining)
China 2010 – 3.7 billion short tons (rising)
OIL
US 2010 – 19.1 million bpd
China 2010 – 9.4 million bpd
Renewable share in electricity – US v China
CHINA
ss
US
ss
China GHG trends
Rank
Country
Annual CO2 emissions[7][8]
(in thousands of metric tonnes)
Percentage of global total
World 29,888,121 100%1 China[9] 7,031,916 23.33%2 United States 5,461,014 18.11%- European Union
(27) 4,177,817 [10] 14.04%3 India 1,742,698 5.78%4 Russia 1,708,653 5.67%5 Japan 1,208,163 4.01%6 Germany 786,660 2.61%7 Canada 544,091 1.80%
Per capita:
China: 4.6 tonnes/capita
US: 19.1 tonnes/capita
Projections are that by 2030 China will account for ½ global
2008 emissions
China GHG policy
Reduce emission intensity of GDP 40-45% by 2020 (over 2005 levels)
At Durban , China agreed to negotiate a legally binding treaty (including the possibility of an absolute emission cap) by 2020
Does authoritarian work? Can produce a rapid response to
problem
But if fragmentation remains, can undermine implementation due to illegitimacy
Low social concern makes authoritarianism more necessary and more difficult
2009 State of Union: To truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, ne need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy
US governance
Federalism: gives extensive powers to 50 states
Separation of powers Congress▪ 2 equal chambers▪ House – 435 seat elected every 2 years▪ Senate – 2 seats per state elected every 6
years President – elected separately every 4
years Courts
US governance: extraordinary majorities House: 50% +1 Senate: effective majority is 60% Treaties: 2/3rd of Senate requires President needs to sign laws passed
by Congress If president vetos, 2/3rd of both
houses can overturn
US governance: extraordinary majorities
Congress and president same party: working majority is 60%
Congress and president different party: working majority is 67%
Note contrast to Canada, China
Party Balance in Congress - Obama 2009 House: 257 D 178 R 2009 Senate: 58 D 40 R 2 I
Party Balance in House - Obama 2011 House: 193 D 242 R (55.6%)
Party Balance in Senate - Obama 2011 Senate: 51 D 47 R 2 I
Automobile efficiency standard 2001 – US cars
and trucks averaged 24.7 m.p.g.
2011 --29.6 m.p.g. New regs: up to 55
m.p.g. by 2025 Obama weekly
address
Nov 2011, Canada announced it would attempt to meet US 2025 targets
But unclear whether by regulation or voluntary
March 20, 2012 Sustainable Energy Policy 23
Climate Legislation - federal 2009 – House passes Waxman-Markey
17% reduction by 2020 Riddled with concession
2010 Senate Coalition building required giving everything away Coalition of senators fell apart when initiative got
framed as “gas tax” “on climate change, Obama grew timid and gave
up, leaving the dysfunctional Senate to figure out the issue on its own”
Personal impact
State initiatives: renewables As of April 2011, 32 states have RPS
or Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards; another six have voluntary standards (Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, 2011)
California most aggressive
State initiatives - GHG
California leadership Western Climate Initiative
Reflections on Two Giants