The Singularity
AKA The Rapture of the Nerds
Joel Pitt - http://blog.ferrouswheel.info/
Outline
Singularity definition Why is it important? How might it happen? Arguments against and problems Conclusions
Just what IS the “Singularity”?
The creation of greater than human intelligence.
The recursive self-improvement in said intelligence.
A point at which our predictions about the future break down.
Why is the Singularity important?
A major paradigm shift for humanity Raises, and potentially will answer,
questions about consciousness and intellect
Magic:– “Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic.” - Arthur C. Clarke
Ensure/Assist our survival against existential risks*
*http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html
Avenues to the Singularity
Artificial Intelligence Direct brain-computer
interfaces Biological augmentation of
the brain or genetic engineering
Ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation
The Trends
Ray Kurzweil’s take: It's all about exponential curves.– Moore’s Law– Paradigm Shifts
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2005) by Ray Kurzweil
The Gillette SingularityOn the caution of extrapolation…
But then, the rate of nano-tech R&D spending could mean we have nano-tech razors in 2015.
Artificial General Intelligence
Narrow vs. strong AI. Best/safest bet? Several strong candidates:
– Novamente (potentially opencog), Ben Goertzel– A2I2, Peter Voss– NARS, Pei Wang– Self-Aware Systems, Steve Omohundro
and if they fail, Google has AI on their project planner in the distant future at 2030.
Hard vs Soft Take-off
Dependent on:– Duration between improvement loops– Improvement factor
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Intelligence G/IQ/whatever
Good vs. Bad
The dilemma: If you make a recursively self-improving intelligence system, how do you ensure it plays nice with humans?
Friendly AI vs. Unfriendly AI Singularity Institute for Artificial
Intelligence’s research focus. Important to get it right first time!
Problems
The problem with extrapolation (e.g. The Gilette Singularity)
Can an intelligent entity design a more intelligent entity?
Is there some inherent limit to intelligence? Current inability to ensure a safe singularity
When might it happen?
Dependent on so many things, but let's use the wisdom of crowds:
from Bruce J. Klein's blog: http://www.novamente.net/bruce/index.php/?p=54
Conclusions
The Singularity, whether it eventuates or not, has the potential to cause tremendous good, but also the potential to result in great harm. Thus it is worth thinking about now, while we still have the ability to influence the direction it proceeds in.
We are in for interesting times…
Further reading
The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Institute for Artificial
Intelligence http://singinst.org/ The Wikipedia page on “Technological
singularity”