The Saskatchewan Labour MarketThe Saskatchewan Labour Market
Presentation to:Yorkton Employer SeminarFebruary 12, 2004Yorkton, Saskatchewan
Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor444 19th AvenueRegina, SaskatchewanS4N 1H1Tel: 306-522-5515Fax: 306-522-5838Email: [email protected]: www.sasktrends.ca
2Feb 11, 2004
ContentsContents
� General Economic Overview– Population– Gross Domestic Product– Other Key Economic Indicators
� Definition of Labour Market Terms and Concepts� Employment - characteristics of jobs and persons working in them
– Hours of work– Industry– Category– Age and gender– Education level– Aboriginal identity– Sub-provincial regions
� The East Central Economic Region� Socioeconomic characteristics of those not employed� Reports re: Labour Market Information
3Feb 11, 2004
PopulationPopulation
� Saskatchewan’spopulation has been ator near 1 million for thepast 15 years.
� In fact, the populationhas fluctuated nearthis psychologicalfigure since the late1920s.
� An increase in out-migration and decliningin-migration led toannual populationdeclines in the late1990s.
970,000
980,000
990,000
1,000,000
1,010,000
1,020,000
1,030,000
1,040,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
4Feb 11, 2004
Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic Product
� The Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) is themost widely usedmeasure of overalleconomic activity.
� The GDP measures thevalue of goods andservices produced in theeconomy. Adjusted forinflation, it is called the“real GDP”.
� A decline in real GDP isthe technical definitionof a recession. Theprovincial economy was inrecession in 2001 and2002.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003est
CanadaSaskatchewan
annual increase in real GDP
5Feb 11, 2004
Resources/International TradeResources/International TradeValue of Mineral Production
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
value of oil/gas andmineral production$ billions
Value of International Merchandise Trade
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
international merchandise trade ($ billions)
6Feb 11, 2004
Farm Receipts and IncomeFarm Receipts and Income
� Drought, poor grainprices, and the BSEcase have led todeclining cash receiptsin 2002 and 2003.
� Net cash income hasbeen supported bygovernment transferpayments since 2000as it was in the last1980s and early 1990s.
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003est
$ billions
Farm cash receipts
Farm cash receiptsexcluding gov't transfers
expenses
acutal net cash income
7Feb 11, 2004
Consumer SpendingConsumer Spending
� Economic growth in2002 and 2003 hasbeen better thanexpected becauseconsumer spending isstrong.
� Motor vehicle sales, inparticular, havegenerated increases inretail spending wellabove the rate ofinflation.
� Other indicators ofconsumer confidencesuch as housing startsare also strong.
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
retail sales$ billions
actual
adjustedfor inflation
(constant 1992 dollars)
8Feb 11, 2004
EmploymentEmployment
� With the exception ofthe unprecedented dropin 2001, employment hasgrown at a reasonablepace in the past decade.
� From 1992 to 2000,employment grew at anaverage annual rate of1% per year.
� From 2000 to 2003,there has been virtuallyno change inemployment; two yearswere required torecover the 13,000 jobslost in 2001.
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
employment in thousands
1992 to 2000Average annualgrowth of 1.0%
2000 to 2003:0.1%
Employment and the Labour ForceEmployment and the Labour Force
10Feb 11, 2004
DefinitionsDefinitions
� The labour market data is all based on atelephone survey of individuals - theLabour Force Survey (LFS) - conductedmonthly by Statistics Canada.Approximately 5,000 Sask residentstake part in the LFS every month.
� The survey excludes those who live onIndian Reserves.
� Statistics Canada classifies all persons15 years of age or older into one ofthree categories:
– employed: working full-time or part-time, as a paid worker or self-employed
– unemployed: not working but activelyseeking employment
– not in the labour force: everybodyelse
� About one half of those “not in thelabour force” are retired seniors.
Adult (15 and older) Population in Saskatchewan, 2003
Unemployed29,000
Employed487,000
Not in the labour force
240,000
11Feb 11, 2004
Inter-provincial ComparisonsInter-provincial Comparisons
� Saskatchewan’semployment growth rateof 1.0% from 1992 to2000 was below thenational average but stillrespectable.
� The 0.1% average annualincrease since 2000 isthe lowest in Canada.
Average Annual Employment Increase
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Canada
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003
12Feb 11, 2004
Characteristics of Jobs - Hours of WorkCharacteristics of Jobs - Hours of Work
� In 2003, 23% of personsemployed were working parttime.
� In the early period - 1992 to2000 - full time jobs werereplacing part time ones.Since 2000, the increase hasbeen in part time jobs.
� Saskatchewan has thehighest proportion of multiplejob holders (persons with twoor more jobs simultaneously)in Canada but the incidence isdeclining. In 2003, 8% of theemployed had two or morejobs.
Average Annual Employment Increase
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
Full time
Part time
Multiple jobholders
1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003
13Feb 11, 2004
Characteristics of Jobs - IndustryCharacteristics of Jobs - Industry
� In effect, employment inthe province increaseswhen the non-agriculturalsector can absorb theongoing loss of agriculturejobs. Employment inagriculture accounted for10% of the total in 2003compared with 18% in1993.
� Employment in non-agricultural industrygroups increased by 1.8%per year from 1992 to2000 and 1.3% per yearfrom 2000 to 2003.
� Note that the industry isbased on the “main job”for multiple job holders.
Employment by Industry of "Main" Job
0
50
100
350
400
450
500
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
thousands
agriculture
non-agriculture
14Feb 11, 2004
Characteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture IndustriesCharacteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture Industries
Average Annual Employment Change
-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, warehousing
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Professional, technical, business services
Health and social services
Education services
Accommodation and food
Information, culture, recreation
Other services
Public administration
1992 to 20002000 to 2003
15Feb 11, 2004
Characteristics of the Employed - GenderCharacteristics of the Employed - Gender
� Employment amongwomen is increasingmore quickly than amongmen.
� Part (but not all) of thereason is the nature ofthe industry growth.That is, the fastestgrowing sectors arethose where women aremore likely to beemployed, e.g.
– health and socialservices
– education– information, culture,
recreation
Employment by Gender
175
200
225
250
275
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
thousands
16Feb 11, 2004
Characteristics of the Employed - AgeCharacteristics of the Employed - Age
� In the past ten to fifteenyears, the bulge in thepopulation called the “babyboom” generation has movedfrom their forties to theirearly fifties.
� The growth in employmentamong those 40 to 54 is anatural consequence of theaging of the population.The growth among those 55and older in the past threeyears is because of higherparticipation in the labourforce.
Average Annual Employment Increase
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
15 to 24
25 to 39
40 to 54
55 plus
1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003
17Feb 11, 2004
Characteristics of the Employed - Education LevelCharacteristics of the Employed - Education Level
� All of the employmentgrowth since 1990 hasbeen among those with apost-secondaryeducation.
� In 2002, over 85% ofthose 25 to 64 and with apost-secondary educationwere employed. Thiscompares with 61% ofthose with less thanGrade 12.
Employment: 25 to 64 Years of Age
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Post secondary graduates
Grade 12, some post-secondary
Less than grade 12
thousands
18Feb 11, 2004
Employment Rates, Aboriginal Population in 2001Employment Rates, Aboriginal Population in 2001
� The LFS doesn’t measureAboriginal identity; thesefigures are from the2001 census.
� The employment rate isthe percentage of thepopulation that wasemployed in June 2001.
� There is a sizable gap inemployment rates,particularly on Reserveand particularly amongyoung people.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Aboriginal on Reserve
Aboriginal off Reserve
Non-Aboriginal population
Aboriginal on Reserve
Aboriginal off Reserve
Non-Aboriginal population
Aboriginal on Reserve
Aboriginal off Reserve
Non-Aboriginal population
Aboriginal on Reserve
Aboriginal off Reserve
Non-Aboriginal population
15 to
24
25 to
34
35 to
44
45 &
old
er
employment rate
Employment by RegionEmployment by Region
20Feb 11, 2004
West Central
SouthwestSoutheast
East Central
North/Far North
SaskatoonCMA
ReginaCMA
Saskatchewan’s Economic RegionsSaskatchewan’s Economic Regions
� For the purposes ofthe LFS, theprovince is dividedinto five rural andtwo urban “economicregions”.
21Feb 11, 2004
Regina Census Metropolitan AreaRegina Census Metropolitan Area
West Central
SouthwestSoutheast
East Central
North/Far North
SaskatoonCMA
ReginaCMA
Regina CMA Employment in Thousands
92949698
100102104106108110
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
22Feb 11, 2004
Saskatoon Census Metropolitan AreaSaskatoon Census Metropolitan Area
West Central
SouthwestSoutheast
East Central
North/Far North
SaskatoonCMA
ReginaCMA
Saskatoon CMA Employment in Thousands
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
23Feb 11, 2004
Southeast Economic RegionSoutheast Economic Region
West Central
SouthwestSoutheast
East Central
North/Far North
SaskatoonCMA
ReginaCMA
Southeast Employment in Thousands
353637383940414243
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
24Feb 11, 2004
East Central Economic RegionEast Central Economic Region
West Central
SouthwestSoutheast
East Central
North/Far North
SaskatoonCMA
ReginaCMA
East Central Employment in Thousands
3536373839404142434445
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
25Feb 11, 2004
Employment OutlookEmployment Outlook
� The provincial economy can be viewed as having four “drivers”.– Consumers are the largest driver but consumer spending is expected to
slow after several years of increasing consumer debt.– The public sector is in a period of restraint for the short term as
expenditures exceed revenues at both the provincial and municipal levels.– The private sector is poised for a recovery after several years of below-
average performance.– The national and international marketplace is volatile because of the US
election and the rising Canadian dollar.� Based on this combination of factors, economic growth in 2004 and
2005 will probably be below average. Employment growth in 2004 isforecast at less than 1%.
� Over the long term, the province’s prospects are bright although theretiring baby boomers will put pressure on the labour market. Skilledworkers will be increasingly hard to come by; more new entrants tothe labour market will be Aboriginal.
East Central Economic RegionEast Central Economic Region
27Feb 11, 2004
Regional CharacteristicsRegional Characteristics
Compared with other rural areasin 2001, that is excluding theRegina and Saskatoon CMAs, theEast Central region’s population isdifferent in a number of ways.
– The population is concentratedin older age groups.
– People are less likely to live in alarge urban centre, i.e. theregion is more “rural”.
– A high proportion of dwellings(87%) are single detachedhouses and 77% are without amortgage.
– There are relatively few (12%)lone parent families.
– The population is stable - 71%did not change their addressfrom 1996 to 2001.
Age Distribution in 2001
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65 & older
Rural* Saskatchewan
East Central Region
* Saskatchewan population not including Regina and Saskatoon CMAs
28Feb 11, 2004
Regional Characteristics (continued)Regional Characteristics (continued)
– The Aboriginal population is 11%of the total compared with 17%in other rural areas.
– The region’s immigrantpopulation (3.2% of the total)are more likely to have come toCanada before 1961 - 56% didso.
– Polish and Ukrainian ancestryare much more common.
– Educational attainment levelsare below average.
– Average farm size is 1,005 acrescompared with 1,283 in otherrural areas. They are alsosmaller in terms ofcapitalization and revenue.
– Employment growth in theservice sector, private sectorservices in particular, has laggedbehind the provincial average.
Employment Growth, 1991 to 2001
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Agriculture/forestry
Other primary
Manufacturing/construction
Retail/wholesale trade
Public sector services
Accomodation and foodservices
Other private sectorservices
East CentralRegion
Rural*Saskatchewan
* provincial total not including the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs
29Feb 11, 2004
Regional Characteristics (continued)Regional Characteristics (continued)
– Household income in 2000was 89% of the ruralaverage compared with92% in 1990.
– Individual incomes were92% of the rural averagein 2000.
– 21% of income was fromgovernment transferscompared with 18%provincially.
– Relatively few householdshad incomes in excess of$60,000 in 2000 - 20½%compared with 26%.
Household Incomes in 2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under$10,000
$20,000-$29,999
$40,000-$49,999
$60,000-$69,999
$80,000-$89,999
$100,000and over
Rural* SaskatchewanEast Central Region
% of households
* provincial total not including the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs
30Feb 11, 2004
Fort Qu'Appelle
Wynyard
Kamsack
CanoraFoam Lake
Bredenbury
Esterhazy
Ituna
Melville
Yorkton
Employment Growth, 1991 to 2001(Provincial Average = 2%)
4% or more-4% to +3.9%
-10% to -3.9%Declined more than 10%
Employment Growth by RM, 1991 to 2001Employment Growth by RM, 1991 to 2001
Characteristics of those “Not Employed”Characteristics of those “Not Employed”
32Feb 11, 2004
DefinitionsDefinitions
� The labour market data is all based on atelephone survey of individuals - theLabour Force Survey (LFS) - conductedmonthly by Statistics Canada.Approximately 5,000 Sask residentstake part in the LFS every month.
� The survey excludes those who live onIndian Reserves.
� Statistics Canada classifies all persons15 years of age or older into one ofthree categories:
– employed: working full-time or part-time, as a paid worker or self-employed
– unemployed: not working but activelyseeking employment
– not in the labour force: everybodyelse
� About one half of those “not in thelabour force” are retired seniors.
Adult (15 and older) Population in Saskatchewan, 2003
Unemployed29,000
Employed487,000
Not in the labour force
240,000
33Feb 11, 2004
Not Employed: Socioeconomic CharacteristicsNot Employed: Socioeconomic Characteristics
� The characteristics of the 120,300 Sask residents who were, in 2002,– in the 20 to 64 age group and– were not working
were obtained from LFS data. (Remember that the LFS doesn’t includethe Reserve population.)
� Some key features are:– 62% were women;– 28% were 20 to 29 years of age; 29% were 55 or older;– 15% were attending school;– 48% live in households where no one is employed;– 33% had less than grade 12 and two thirds of these were 35 or older;– 19% were “unemployed”, that is, actively seeking employment;– 37% had worked in the past year, 52% had worked but not for at least a
year, 11% had never had a job; and– about one half of those who worked in the past year were laid off, the rest
left voluntarily.
34Feb 11, 2004
Family Status of those Not Employed, 2002Family Status of those Not Employed, 2002
� One quarter to a third ofthe family situationsinvolve young childrenand a parent that isprobably staying at hometo look after them.
� Another quarter seem tobe retirees and womenwho have never been inthe labour force.
� Many of the remainingpotential employees areyoung adults, some ofwhom are going to school.
Unattached individuals
17%
Women in families with
children under 18
17%
Women where husband is
employed, no young children
13%
Men in families with wife employed
10%
Neither employed, 50
or older15%
Lone parents under 50
7%
All others21%
35Feb 11, 2004
Labour Market StudiesLabour Market Studies
� The Labour Market Trends report mentioned in the binders iscurrently being updated. This report projects a declining non-Aboriginal labour force as the baby boomers retire.
� Research for the Public Service Commission and the CrownInvestment Corporation documents the aging of public sectoremployees.
� The Regional Employment Trends in Saskatchewan for 2003 may beupdated for 2004.
� Regional profiles (using census data) for the DCRE regions andregional college regions are being prepared.