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2018
THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Facts, Figures, Players, Trends
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THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Facts, Figures, Players, Trends Available in English from 30th May 2018. Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6 for more information). Although there are no physical links between or across them, the railway markets of Africa and the Middle East share a number of characteristics and trends. Core markets in the region are part of major international transport corridors to Asia and Europe. In this context, they have become subject to substantial spending from interested parties. Major network enhancements and upgrades and rolling stock procurements followed. After the downturn on the global commodity markets, however, several dedicated freight-only railway developments have been postponed. In parallel, governments and railway companies have been promoting passenger rail transport in and between conurbations. All these trends together define a highly interesting landscape of market structures and business opportunities. Against this background, the present study draws a coherent and up-to-date picture of the market’s current landscape and its major development trends – based on current market data collected in our database and processed by our experts, applying our proven and tested forecast methodology and thus enabling sustainable strategic decisions. In concrete terms, the market study “The Railway Market in Africa and the Middle East” provides:
– An overview of the region’s political, demographic and economic situation, its opportunities and threats
– An independent and differentiated view on current foreign investment, related national and international policies and strategies
– A special focus on the recent and future development of Sino-African relations
– An analysis and forecast of the transport markets for freight and passenger mainline services and urban rail transit
– The present inventories, developments and market volumes for infrastructure, system technology and rolling stock for mainline railways and urban rail transit
– Listings of recent, current and known future infrastructure projects and rolling stock procurements
The annex contains approx. 40 fact sheets presenting the major present and future corridors and etworks for passenger and freight rail services, as well as of transport companies, infrastructure managers, investors, and manufacturers.
Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format
– All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets, installed bases and deliveries are transparently and comprehensively available
– Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement available market data
SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we
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specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industries, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level. Contact: SCI Verkehr GmbH Alexander Apking Phone: +49 221 93178 20 Email: [email protected]
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CONTENTS
1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 20
1.1 General Findings ........................................................................................................ 20
1.2 Installed Base, Network and Fleet Development ....................................................... 22
1.3 The Transport Market ................................................................................................. 24
1.4 The Equipment Market: Products and Services ........................................................ 28
2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study............................................ 30
2.1 Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................... 31
2.2 Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................... 38
3 Market Environment ............................................................................................. 44
3.1 Social and Economic Framework .............................................................................. 44
3.2 Political Antagonisms ................................................................................................. 46
3.3 Economic Influence of Other Regions ....................................................................... 47
3.4 Mining and Logistics .................................................................................................. 49
3.5 Railway Infrastructure ................................................................................................. 50
3.6 Passenger Rail ........................................................................................................... 51
3.7 Summary .................................................................................................................... 54
4 The Railway Market in the Middle East ............................................................... 55
4.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 55
4.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 56
4.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 59
4.4 Core Market: Iran ....................................................................................................... 60
4.5 Core Market: Israel ..................................................................................................... 68
4.6 Core Market: Saudi Arabia ......................................................................................... 75
5 The Railway Market in Northern Africa ................................................................ 82
5.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 82
5.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 82
5.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 85
6 The Railway Market in Sub-Saharan Africa ......................................................... 86
6.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 86
6.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 86
6.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 89
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7 The Railway Market in Southern Africa ............................................................... 90
7.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 90
7.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 90
7.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 92
8 The Railway Market in South Africa..................................................................... 93
8.1 Socio-Economic Indicators and Market Overview ..................................................... 93
8.2 Market Environment, Market Conditions, Investment ................................................ 94
8.3 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 96
8.4 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 98
9 The Equipment Market: Infrastructure and System Technology ........................ 99
9.1 Installed Base and Network Development ................................................................. 99
9.2 Important Infrastructure Projects ............................................................................. 100
9.3 Track System ........................................................................................................... 105
9.4 Electrification ............................................................................................................ 108
9.5 Control Command and Signalling ........................................................................... 112
9.6 Passenger-Related Information Technology ........................................................... 114
10 The Equipment Market: Rolling Stock ............................................................... 116
10.1 Locomotives ............................................................................................................. 116
10.2 Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches).................................................................................................................................. 130
10.3 Urban Rail Transit Vehicles (Metro and Light Rail Vehicles) .................................... 148
10.4 Freight Wagons ........................................................................................................ 162 ANNEXE
1 Major Infrastructure Developments ................................................................... 172
2 Important Transport Companies and Infrastructure Managers ........................ 172
3 Important Rail Sector Investors and Holding Companies ................................ 172
4 Manufacturers .................................................................................................... 172
The study includes 67 figures and 62 tables.
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DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT
DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW
1 Market Overview
1.1 World Market Overview (Pivot)
1.2 Network Length (Pivot)
1.3 Transport Performance (Pivot)
1.4 Market Volume (Pivot)
1.5 World Market Overview (Data)
1.6 Network Length (Data)
1.7 Transport Performance (Data)
1.8 Market Volume (Data)
2 Installed Base
2.1 Installed Base Overview (Pivot)
2.2 Installed Base Country (Pivot)
2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)
2.4 Installed Base Overview (Data)
2.5 Installed Base Country (Data)
2.6 Installed Base Age (Data)
3 Deliveries
3.1 Deliveries Manufacturer (Pivot)
3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer (Data)
4 Additional Tables
4.1 Project Overview (Data)
4.2 Additional Figures
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1 Extract from the Study
(…)
Network Length 2017
[route-km] Network Length 2022
[route-km]
CAGR 2017–2022
[% p.a.]
By Subregion and Core Market
Middle East xx xx xx
– Iran xx xx xx
– Israel xx xx xx
– Saudi Arabia xx xx xx
Northern Africa xx xx xx
Sub-Saharan Africa xx xx xx
Southern Africa xx xx xx
South Africa xx xx xx
By Transport Market
High Speed Rail xx xx xx
Conventional Railway xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Network lengths at year’s end and rounded to the nearest 10 route-km. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 1: Africa / Middle East – Current Average Market Volumes, Market Shares, and Market Development by Subregion and Core Market Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview
(…)
Subregion Transport Performance 2016
[million tkm] Share [%]
Middle East xx 16
Northern Africa xx 2
Sub-Saharan Africa xx 9
Southern Africa xx 5
South Africa (including Lesotho) xx 66
Africa / Middle East xx 100
Transport performance rounded to the nearest 10 million tkm
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Table 2: Africa / Middle East – Fleet Development Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview
More than 80% of all freight rail transport performance is realised in the Middle East and South Africa, which means practically in Iran and the Republic of South Africa (both are core markets in this study). This market structure is not about to change in the near future. (…)
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Average Market Volume
2017 [EUR million]
Average Market Volume
2022 [EUR million]
CAGR 2017–2022
[% p.a.]
Volatility [%]
By Subregion and Core Market
Middle East xx xx xx xx
– Iran xx xx xx xx
– Israel xx xx xx xx
– Saudi Arabia xx xx xx xx
Northern Africa xx xx xx xx
Sub-Saharan Africa xx xx xx xx
Southern Africa xx xx xx xx
South Africa xx xx xx xx
By Transport Market
High Speed Rail xx xx xx xx
Conventional Railway xx xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit xx xx xx xx
By Product Group
Track System xx xx xx xx
Electrification xx xx xx xx
Control Command and Signalling xx xx xx xx
Passenger-Related Information Technology
xx xx xx xx
Locomotives xx xx xx xx
Mainline Passenger Vehicles xx xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit Vehicles xx xx xx xx
Freight Wagons xx xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx xx
Market volumes rounded to the next EUR 10 million. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum
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Table 3: Africa / Middle East – Transport Performance by Subregion – Urban Rail Transit Data table (additional offer): 1.3 Transport Performance
(…) The region is home to more than 1.4 billion, of whom 226 million (~16%) live in the Middle East, which also accounts for approx. 15% of the region’s total surface. Population is growing in all subregions and core markets. The highest annual growth rates can be seen in Sub-Saharan and Southern Africa. Israel is showing the highest and Saudi Arabia the lowest population density; most other market areas range around the region’s average of 40/km2, which is a rather poor condition for the establishment of cost-efficient passenger rail transport. (…)
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Figure 1: Market Environment – Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East
(…)
Saudi Arabia
Region: Africa / Middle East
Subregion: Middle East
Socio-Economic Indicators
Territory 2 149 690 km2
Population 2017 32.4 million
Population Density 2017 15 inh./ km2
Population Growth 2017–2022 xx % p.a.
Level of Urbanisation 2017 xx %
Credit Rating 2016 xx
Ease of Doing Business Rank 2017 xx
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Prices 2017 USD xx billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in PPP 2017 USD xx billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita in PPP 2017 Int.-USD xx
GDP Growth (constant prices) 2017–2022 xx % p.a.
Inflation Rate 2017 xx %
… … … …
Table 4: Saudi Arabia – Socio-Economic Indicators, Rail Networks, Transport and Equipment Markets Data table (additional offer): 4.2 Additional Figures
(…)
Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East
Commuter Rail:
In Operation
Under Construction
Planned
Metro:
In Operation
Under Construction
Planned
Light Rail Transit:
In Operation
Under Construction
Planned
IRAQ
SAUDI ARABIA
UAEOMAN
YEMEN
SYRIA
JORDAN
LEBANON
ISRAELPALESTINE
IRAN
Jeddah
Kuwait City
ManamahJubail
DohaDubai
Abu Dhabi
Damascus
Amman-Zarqa
Haifa-Nazareth
Tel AvivJerusalem
Be‘er Sheva
´Mashhad
Tehran
Tabriz
AhwazEsfahan
Shiraz
Mecca
Riyadh
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Figure 2: Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail
(…)
Market Volume and Market Development Average Market
Volume 2017 [EUR million p.a.]
CAGR 2017–2022 [%]
Volitility [%]
by Product Group
Track System xx xx xx
Electrification xx xx xx
Control Command and Signalling xx xx xx
Passenger-Related Information Technology xx xx xx
Locomotives xx xx xx
Mainline Passenger Vehicles xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit Vehicles xx xx xx
Freight Wagons xx xx xx
by Transport Mode
High Speed Rail (HSR) xx xx xx
Conventional Railway (CR) xx xx xx
Metro (M) xx xx xx
Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx xx xx
by Investment Target
New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx xx xx
Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 5: Sub-Saharan Africa – Products and Services Data table (additional offer): 1.4 Market Volume
(…)
Forecast
35 070
29 300
29 890
32 880
26 900
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Base Case Upside Case Downside Case
Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail[million pkm]
Rounded to the nearest 10 million.
=
0
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
CAGR 2010–2016: –3.0%
CAGR 2016–2022: +0.3% (Base Case) +1.9% (Upside Case) –1.4% (Downside Case)
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Country Project Trans-port
Mode N/U
Route [km]
Status Start Com-
pletion
Invest [EUR
million]
Swaziland xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Namibia / Zambia
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
… … … … … … … … …
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Table 6: Infrastructure and System Technology – Projects / Southern Africa Data table (additional offer): 4.1 Project Overview (Data)
(…)
Drivers Brief Description Relevance 5-Year Future
Trend
Available Investment Funds
xx xx xx
Political Backing of Network Development
xx xx xx
… … … …
Relevance: = Very high, = High, = Medium, = Low, = Very low 5-Year Future Trend (Compared to Expected Real Economic Growth):
= Much above, = Above, = In line, = Below, = Much below
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Table 7: Track System – Procurement Drivers
(…)
Figure 3: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017 Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview
(…)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Other Countries
Syria
Nigeria
Kenya
Iraq
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Egypt
Iran
South Africa
Diesel Locomotives Electric Locomotives
Africa / Middle East: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017 [units]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Total: ~8,360 units
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Figure 4: Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure Data table (additional offer): 2.3 Installed Base Age
(…) Table 8: Electric Multiple Units – Procurements
Country Type Units [No.]
Max. speed [km/h]
Delivery from/to
Remarks
Middle East
Iran planned EMU investment
100 140e 2020e–2026e
In 2008 Siemens and MAPNA signed a technology transfer agreement covering the production of 150 IranRunner diesel locomotives, the first 30 of which were supplied from Germany. However in January 2010 Siemens announced it would withdraw from the Iranian market on the completion of its existing contracts. On 6 January 2016, Islamic Republic of Iran Railways (RAI) and Siemens signed a memorandum of understanding for potential co-operation in the rail sector.
… … … … … …
Northern Africa
… … … … … …
Sub-Saharan Africa
… … … … … …
Southern Africa
… … … … … …
South Africa
… … … … … …
e = estimated
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
(…)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
before 1978 1978-1982 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017
High-Speed Trains Diesel Multiple Units Electric Multiple Units Passenger Coaches
Africa / Middle East: Mainline Passenger Vehicles(High-Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure [units]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Average Age: High Speed Trains – 1.9 years; DMUs – 19.9 years; EMUs – 38.4 years;Passenger Coaches: 32.2 years; Total: 32.0 years
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By Subregion and Core Market Average
Fleet Size 2017
CAGR 2017–2022
[% p.a.]
Volatility [%]
Middle East
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
− Iran
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
− Israel
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
− Saudi Arabia
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Northern Africa
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
… … … … …
Africa / Middle East
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Fleet sizes rounded to the nearest 10 units/cars. (…)
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 9: Urban Transit Vehicles – Installed Base and Fleet Development Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview
(…)
Figure 5: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers’ Market Shares 2013–2017
xx%
xx%
xx%
xx%
xx%
xx%
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
Others
Africa / Middle East: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers‘ Market Shares 2013–2017 [units]
Figures rounded to the nearest 10 units.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Total:~xx units
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