The Population Trends That Are Reshaping Michigan
Reynolds FarleyPopulation Studies Center
Institute for Social ResearchUniversity of Michigan
Observations prepared for a conference organized by:GOVERNING and the American Association of Retired
PersonsLansing, Michigan
June 6, 2012
Michigan’s Slow Population Growth
in Recent Decades
Low Fertility
Net loss of population in exchange with other states
Relatively few immigrants from abroad
Michigan loses the economic stimulus of population growth
Michigan loses political influence
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Michigan Rest of the USA
FIGURE 1. Percent Change by Decade for Michigan’s Population and for the Nation’s Population, 1860 to 2010
FIGURE 2. Michigan’s Share of the Nation’s Total Population, 1850 to 2010
2.0%
2.8%3.0%
3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1%
3.5%
3.9% 4.0%4.2% 4.3% 4.4%
4.1%
3.7%3.5%
3.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
FIGURE 3. Number of Congressional Seats Apportioned to Michigan after Each Census, 1850 to 2010
4
6
9
1112 12
13 13
17 1718
19 1918
1615
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
NU
MB
ER
OF
CO
NG
RE
SS
ION
AL
SE
AT
S
MAP 1. Percent Change in Population of Michigan Counties, 2000 to 2011
Iron
Delta
LuceMarquette
Kent
AlgerGogebicChippewa
Huron
Baraga
Sanilac
Ontonagon
Lake
Ionia
Bay
Schoolcraft
Allegan
Mackinac
Clare
Oakland
Tuscola
Barry
Iosco
Alcona
Cass
Eaton
Saginaw
Lapeer
Newaygo
St. Clair
WayneJackson
AlpenaAntrim
Calhoun
Gratiot
Dickinson
ClintonOttawa
LenaweeBerrien
Mason
Oscoda
Monroe
Otsego
Isabella
Ingham
Montcalm
Emmet
Branch
Genesee
Osceola
Hillsdale
Wexford
Oceana MidlandMecosta
Gladwin
Ogemaw
Kalkaska Crawford
Manistee
WashtenawVan Buren
Presque Isle
Arenac
Benzie
Menominee
Houghton
Cheboygan
LivingstonMacomb
Missaukee
Kalamazoo
Muskegon
St. Joseph
Roscommon
Shiawassee
Montmorency
Leelanau
Charlevoix
Keweenaw
Grand Traverse
Houghton
Keweenaw
Chippewa
Legend
-2.6% and Below (Population Decline)
0% to -2.5% (Very Slow Loss)
1% to 2.5% (Very Slow Growth)
2.6% to 11.0% (Moderate Growth)
Over 11% (Grew Faster than the Nation)
FIGURE 4. Population Change in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, 2000 to 2010
10.7%
6.8%
4.5%
4.2%
3.7%
3.6%
1.2%
-1.3%
-2.2%
-2.4%
-3.5%
-3.5%
-4.7%
0.4%
10.1%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
United States, Except Michigan
Non-metropolitan Michigan
Saginaw
Holland-Grand Haven
Detroit
Niles-Benton Harbor
Flint
Bay City
Battle Creek
Jackson
Lansing
Kalamazoo
Monroe
Grand Rapids
Ann Arbor
TABLE 1. State Births Per 1,000 Women Ages 15 to 44 in 2010 State Births per 1,000 Women
States with Highest Birth Rates
Utah 92 Alaska 83 Montana 82 Mississippi 81 Nevada 80
Big Ten/Northwest Territory States
Iowa 74 Total United States 72 Illinois 69 Wisconsin 67 Minnesota 67 Ohio 66 Indiana 65 Michigan 67
States with the Lowest Birth Rates Massachusetts 57 West Virginia 57 Delaware 56 District of Columbia 56 Vermont 51
TABLE 2. State Age-Adjusted Death Rates Per 100,000 in 2009
State
Deaths per 100,000
States with Lowest Death Rates
Hawaii 620 Minnesota 652 California 652 Arizona 653 New York 666
Big Ten/Northwest Territory States Wisconsin 709 Iowa 725 Total United States 741 Illinois 743 Michigan 786 Ohio 814 Indiana 816
States with Highest Death Rates Louisiana 888 Kentucky 898 Alabama 920 Mississippi 926 West Virginia 902
FIGURE 5. Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) and Net Internal Migration, Annual Estimates, 1980 to 2010
-175
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
TH
OU
SA
ND
S
Natural Increase(Population Gain)
Net Internal Migration(Population Loss)
29.2
33.6
33.8
33.8
34.6
36.6
37
37.2
37.4
38.1
38.5
38.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
41.1
41.3
41.5
42.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Utah
Texas
Alaska
District of Columbia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Total United States
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Florida
New Hampshire
West Virginia
Vermont
Maine
AGE IN YEARS
OLDEST STATES
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR BIG TEN STATES
YOUNGEST STATES
FIGURE 6. Median Age of the Population of “Oldest” States, Northwest Territory or Big Ten States, and “Youngest” States, Census 2010
MAP 2. Percent Age 65 and Over in the Counties of Michigan and in Comparison to the Nation, Census 2010
Legend
Michigan_Counties
Age 65 and Over.AGE_65_PLU
Less than 12% (Younger)
13.9% to 12.1% (Close to National Average)
14.0% to 17.0% (Somewhat Older)
17.1% to 23.9% (Older)
Over 24% (Much Older)
Iron
Delta
LuceMarquette
Kent
AlgerGogebicChippewa
Huron
Baraga
Sanilac
Ontonagon
Lake
Ionia
Bay
Schoolcraft
Allegan
Mackinac
Clare
Oakland
Tuscola
Barry
Iosco
Alcona
Cass
Eaton
Saginaw
Lapeer
Newaygo
St. Clair
WayneJackson
AlpenaAntrim
Calhoun
Gratiot
Dickinson
ClintonOttawa
LenaweeBerrien
Mason
Oscoda
Monroe
Otsego
Isabella
Ingham
Montcalm
Emmet
Branch
Genesee
Osceola
Hillsdale
Wexford
Oceana MidlandMecosta
Gladwin
Ogemaw
Kalkaska Crawford
Manistee
WashtenawVan Buren
Presque Isle
Arenac
Benzie
Menominee
Houghton
Cheboygan
LivingstonMacomb
Missaukee
Kalamazoo
Muskegon
St. Joseph
Roscommon
Shiawassee
Montmorency
Leelanau
Charlevoix
Keweenaw
Grand Traverse
Houghton
Keweenaw
Chippewa
MAP 3. Natural Decrease Counties in Michigan―Counties with More
Deaths than Births, July 2010 to June 2011
Iron
Delta
LuceMarquette
Kent
AlgerGogebicChippewa
Huron
Baraga
Sanilac
Ontonagon
Lake
Ionia
Bay
Schoolcraft
Allegan
Mackinac
Clare
Oakland
Tuscola
Barry
Iosco
Alcona
Cass
Eaton
Saginaw
Lapeer
Newaygo
St. Clair
WayneJackson
AlpenaAntrim
Calhoun
Gratiot
Dickinson
ClintonOttawa
LenaweeBerrien
Mason
Oscoda
Monroe
Otsego
Isabella
Ingham
Montcalm
Emmet
Branch
Genesee
Osceola
Hillsdale
Wexford
Oceana MidlandMecosta
Gladwin
Ogemaw
Kalkaska Crawford
Manistee
WashtenawVan Buren
Presque Isle
Arenac
Benzie
Menominee
Houghton
Cheboygan
LivingstonMacomb
Missaukee
Kalamazoo
Muskegon
St. Joseph
Roscommon
Shiawassee
Montmorency
Leelanau
Charlevoix
Keweenaw
Grand Traverse
Houghton
Keweenaw
Chippewa
Counties shown in red report more deaths than births.
FIGURE 7. Michigan’s Population by Age in 2009 and Projected Population in 2030 (in Thousands)
POPULATION (000)
1,000 600800 200400 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+Michigan, 2009
Total Population: 9,996,000Median Age: 37.6 years
Michigan, 2030Total Population: 10,692,000
Median Age: 40.2 years
FIGURE 7. Number of Jobs Each Month from January 2000 to March 2011 in Michigan and the Rest of the United States (in thousands)
Total United States, Except Michigan
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NU
MB
ER
OF
JO
BS
(00
0)
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NU
MB
ER
OF
JO
BS
(00
0)
Michigan
FIGURE 8. Employment Change by Industry in Michigan and Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010, and Percent of Employment in Major Industrial Sectors, 2010
7.7%-10.8%
-0.1%-15.8%
-20.4%-29.3%
29.8%26.0%
16.4%-0.2%
-4.7%11.8%
-0.7%-30.5%
5.6%0.0%
11.7%-11.4%
14.8%-4.6%
30.6%19.0%
-21.6%-37.1%
13.8%-4.7%
13.6%
38.0%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Michigan Rest of U.S.
Michigan Rest of U.S.
NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURING
SOCIAL SERVICES
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE
CONSTRUCTION
REPAIR AND PERSONAL SERVICES
POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING
5.7%6.4%
3.7%
100%
4.0%3.5%
4.0%5.2%
4.2%4.7%
4.7%6.2%
3.3%4.2%
4.1%
100%
3.0%3.0%
DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES
ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION
RETAIL TRADE18.7%
27.7%
12.7%6.5%
9.9%11.3%
5.9%6.2%
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
11.9%10.6%
FIGURE 9. Economic Status of Persons Living in Michigan and Elsewhere in the United States: Per Capita Income for Residents 21 and Over, Median Household Income and Poverty Rate, 1950 to 2008
1950 1960 19801980
1970 1990 2000 2008 1950 1960 19801980
1970 1990 2000 2008
PER CAPITA INCOME$15,358
$23,273
$32,338$33,555
COMFORTABLE(Incomes 500% or more of the poverty line)
MIDDLE CLASS(Incomes 300% to 499% of the poverty line)
NEAR POOR(Incomes 100% to 199% of the poverty line)
IMPOVERISHED(Incomes below the poverty line)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MICHIGAN ELSEWHERE IN UNITED STATES
$34,574 $35,084
$40,333$13,982
$21,186
$28,851$30,846
$34,750 $38,370
$39,099
FIGURE 10. Job Growth Rates for States from January 2011 to April 2012 (Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Survey of Employers)
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
2.2%
0.1%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Wisconsin
New Hampshite
Rhode Island
Maine
Mississippi
Illinois
Total United State
Iowa
Ohio
Minnesota
Michigan
Indiana
North Dakota
Texas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Utah
STATES WITH HIGHEST RATES OF NEW JOB GROWTH
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR TRADITIONAL BIG TEN STATES
STATES WITH NO NET JOB GROWTH OR A LOSS OF JOBS
FIGURE 8. Index of Labor Productivity in Manufacturing for the Nation, 1990 to 2011: Number of Workers Needed in Years Past to Achieve Output of 100 Workers in 2011
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NU
MB
ER
OF
WO
RK
ER
S
FIGURE 9. Population of Michigan Age 65 and Over, 1990 to 2030
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
MIL
LIO
NS
FIGURE 10. Percent Change in Employment in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, the Remainder of Michigan, and the Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010
9.1%
-10.8%
-7.2%
-11.0%
-6.3%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-1.8%
-23.8%
-10.6%
-11.9%
1.9%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Remainder of United States
Total State of Michigan
Remainder of Michigan
Saginaw-Bay City-Midland
Lansing-East Lansing
Kalamazoo-Battle Creek
Jackson
Grand Rapids-Muskegon
Flint
Detroit
Benton Harbor
Ann Arbor
FIGURE 11. Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Persons Aged 21 and Percent Change
in Constant Dollar Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Most Prosperous States, Big Ten States, and Least Prosperous States
$35,832
$26,842
$27,569
$28,474
$29,426
$30,161
$31,882
$32,509
$32,821
$33,882
$34,852
$35,283
$37,829
$39,490
$46,393
$47,483
$48,163
$51,205
$55,973
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000
Total United States
Mississippi
West Virginia
Arkansas
Kentucky
Idaho
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio
Iowa
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Minnesota
Massachusetts
Maryland
New Jersey
Connecticut
District of Columbia
LEAST PROSPEROUS STATES
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR "BIG TEN" STATES
MOST PROSPEROUS STATES
Percent Changein Decade
4.7%
-8.9%
-6.4%
-2.3%
-4.6%
-20.6%
-14.4%
-5.6%
-11.0%
-5.9%
-11.3%
-7.5%
-15.6%
-5.3%
--8.3%
-10.0%
-12.4%
-10.8%
-15.6%
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