Generation 0 Vehicles.
Generation 0 Vehicles.
Generatio
n 3 HEVs
2014
Early core market:6-15% of market
Generation 2 HEVs
2010
Fast followers: 3-5% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market
Generation 1 HEVs
1996 (Japan) 2004Early market:1-2%
HEV market developed in 3 phases:
Japan: 3rd generation HEV sales reached 19% in 2012,
Prius is best selling vehicle 4 years in row
California: 3rd generation HEV sales reached 7-8% 2012, Prius best selling vehicle in CA in 2012 (60,000)
USA: 3rd generation HEV sales 3-4%,2012 = 434,645
2
USA: How are we doing so far with PEVs?
)US HEVs
(2 yrs from launch
US HEVs (2 yrs from
launch
4
USA sales 1st gen PHEVs: 9 quarters 2011-13
5
USA sales 1st gen BEVs; 9 quarters 2011-13
6
PEV market: glass half empty or half full?
• Stated annual USA PEV sales goals of car makers– Volt goals 45,000 - actual 2012 sales 23,500– Leaf goals 20,000 - actual 2012 sales 9,819
• Climate & energy independence goals – California - 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025 (5% of CA fleet) – USA: Obama - 1 million PEVs by 2015 (.3 % of USA
fleet)– Germany, France – 1 million EVs by 2020
7
Size of potential PEV market in California • 1991-95, 4 year, 4 step UCD study:
– A detailed project based on values, resources, vehicle purchase habits & travel needs of 600 CA households
– Main assumptions:• Hybrid household hypothesis: 2 vehicles: 1 BEV & 1• 80-120 miles of BEV range, PHEV 20 & 40• PEVs in midsize to compact sedans, priced close to ICE, • Competition from gasoline, CNG, diesel • no FCVs, no HEVs• Gasoline was $1.50, middle of SUV market growth
• BEVs: 15% of California annual sales• PHEVs: not as well understood, potentially larger
depending on prices…• CNGs: less than 5%
Wuppertal
Household Resources: A Small Percentage of Californians are Responsible for Most New Car
Purchases
8
(about 33% of the new vehicles sold.)
(In the last five years)
(about 67% of the new vehicles sold.)
Based on the CA sample of the NHTS 2009
Regulation: California Air Resources Board ZEV Program
Other states “adopting” CA rules: Oregon, Washington, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island
9
Governor’s Executive Order 2013
Current PEV price comparison
Vehicle Model MSRP
Purchase Price after Federal Tax
CreditLease Price per
Month
Chevrolet Volt $39,145 + $31,645 $299/mo
Nissan Leaf $28,800 - 34,800 $21,300 $200/mo
Prius PHEV $32,800 - 39,500 $30,300 $269 - $459
HEV Prius $24,000 $24,000
Toyota RAV4 EV $49,800 $42,300
Tesla Model S $67,000 $59,500 $500-600/mo
22/04/23
11
PEV Incentives
USA California
Tax credits $400 per kWh / 200,000 per manufacturer$2500 for Toyota Prius$7500 for Leaf$7500 for Volt
$2500 rebate
Registration NA
Roads HOV lanes
Electricity Time of Use and free electricity at many public & workplace chargers
12
Market trends in California for PEVs• USA:
– 250 million LDV vehicles– About 15 million vehicles sold per year
• California: – 23 million light duty vehicles total,– About 1.5 million vehicles sold per year (10% of
USA)• California PEV trends:
– More than 25,000 PEVs bought since 2010
– 45% of PEVs are BEVs vs. 34% in the US market. – PEV Sales last quarter of 2012:
• 2.5% of cars (1 in 40) (not including 138,000 trucks) 6,000 out of 232,512 cars sold in California
Wuppertal
Social context: PEVs sales in California are mostly in coastal communities 2010-2012
13
Regionalization of salesCalifornia coastal cities, Portland, Seattle, Washington, California Incentives: $2500 for ZEV & Advanced Technology (Volt), Allowed to drive in high occupant vehicle lanes (HOV)
Wuppertal
BEVs are in the core areas & PHEVs are in the suburbs (so far)
BEV to PHEV ratio
14
2007 UCD survey: 53% of US new car buyers have a 110 plug within 25 ft. of where they park at night
Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008
15
16
Those with detached houses & garages were more likely to have home recharge potential
Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008
17
California PEV Household Characteristics 2012
• 95% of the vehicles are owned by private individuals, 4% by businesses & 1% by government & NGOs
• 83% have yearly income higher than $100K – 46% incomes is higher than $150K – 16% decline to state.• 96% live in single family dwelling• 96% own their house– 1% rent in San Diego study– 5% rent in other areas • 42% have solar panels– 18% consider installation– 40% have no plan to install • Mostly men, middle age, but shifting
18
Household Fleet Changes With the New BEV
Wuppertal
Understanding the Additional Vehicles
19
Hybrids May Serve as a Gateway to Plug-ins but they are not replaced by the Leaf
Wuppertal
Sales are often clustered, with surprising density in some neighborhoods
21
22
BMW chose us to work with them on their MINI-E experiment in 2009-10, so we got to do some BEV
anthropology
• 1-year lease at $850/mo. + tax
• In-home charging stations (no public charging)
• Out of 550 MINI Es worldwide, 450 in US
PHEV center surveyed over 150 MINI E drivers & interviewed 39 households during the year
MINI E owners learn a lot about electricity, more than they knew about gasoline
• How far can I drive on a kWh?• Understanding of costs, efficiency• Regenerative braking new• Driving style and feeling for energy use
24
Most liked the MINI E & while it was impractical for some trips, drivers engaged in
developing their own EV Territory
• EV driving zone• Quiet driving
experience• Charging locations• BEV community• Geography of BEVs
(distances, uphills, downhills, routes)
• Technology for this zone (GIS systems) 25
MINI E drivers were most enthusiastic about the intersection of clean & fun
• Strong value intersection for buyers
• MINI E was quiet, smooth, easy to drive, fast
• Electric vehicle has special place in public values
26
New vehicle introduction takes time…
0%
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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emonstra
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evelopm
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R&D)
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type D
emonstra
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Product D
evelopm
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Researc
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Develo
pment (
R&D)
Generation 1 PEVs Generation 2 PEVs Generatio
n 3 PEVs
2010 202220182014
1-2% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market
Early core market:6-15% of market
PEVs (BEVs & PHEVs) market development
1st generation PEVs: partial conversions, loss leaders, ¼ scale production (less than 100,000 annual)
1st buyers (pioneers): High income, future focus, educated, willing to take risks.
Very regionalized: coastal Calif, Japan, Oslo, Portland Oregon: tech industries, regulations, high incentives
Charging system: home based, minimal public charging in non-optimal locations,
28
Generation 1 PEVs
Generation 2 PEVs Generatio
n 3 PEVs
2010 202220182014Early buyers 1-2%
3-5% of market 3-5% of market Early core market:6-15% of market
2nd generation PEVs market development
Generation 2 PEVs: purchases simplified, mass production, improved performance, dedicated platforms,
Fast followers: high income, still “future” focused, tech followers but social leaders in networks of first buyers
Market: intensifies in same regions
Charging system: simpler & optimized
29
Designing an optimal charger network
30
Charging surveys: What constraints do they face and what do they want?
Charging models: What do we think they want & need?(Home, workplace, public, DC fast network design tools)
Data acquisition: What, where & when do they charge?(need to monitor charge use- disaggregated through vehicle systems)
(also issues of etiquette, social practice)
Drs. Michael Nicholas, Gil TalJustin Woodjack 31
Charge network design & rollout? Location, type, density, redundancy
Wuppertal
Point of Diminishing Returns Reached at 200 DC Fast Charge Locations
-model created with 1 day record for 30,000 California drivers
Survey Results (What do people want?)More than 1000 Leaf household responses
• Charging is needed (regional systems)– 80% of drivers went to “1 bar” 8%– 40% of drivers exceeded “home-based” range– 7% would need charging to return from work
• Charging is used– 30% charge out of home regularly– Level 1 is used more than level 2 at work (53%)– Level 2 is used more than level 1 elsewhere (78%)
• Charging is wanted– 65% of Leaf owners suggested charger locations,
mostly DC QC– Median distance home-QC was 44 miles (71 km)
Wuppertal
Survey: Where do People Want Chargers?
34
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Given Only 5 Choices, Priority is Home Area
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
Wuppertal
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
4.8%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Work 1.2kW (L1)
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
4.8%1.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
Wuppertal
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% 4.8%
1.5%0.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%
1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% 4.8%
1.5%0.7%
4.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% 4.8%
1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%
• QC accommodates up to 10% additional
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh.= 59%
– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%
• QC accommodates up to an additional 10% EV miles
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)