The Next Generation era and
“The Changes we need”By Surapon KiattiyossakunTrue Corp.29 Jan.09
TCT & TTA Seminar :NGN Broadband
DevelopmentBangkok, 29 January 2009
Prediction “Traffic on world’s networks will increase
46% annually from 2007 to 2012. As a result, there will be an annual bandwidth demand of approx. 522 exabytes, or more than half a zettabyte !”
1 2
Conventional Telco Model - 10 years ago
Fix Line
Mobile ITUE.164
International Gateways
Country
A
Country
A
Country
B
Country
B
Country
C
Country
C
Voice Communicationhas dominated telecommunication
since 1877 until Now .
Telecom
Service Provider
Consumer
Old Eco-System : Telecom Service
Business
ISP
Int’lGateway
Government
ContentProvider
NetworkSuppliers
1,2051,1701,092
1,045983
907844793743692
646
1,388
1,773
1,593
1,132
1,146
936730
478
308206
1368655
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004f 2005fYear
Mai
n L
ines
/Mo
bile
Su
bsc
rib
ers
(mill
ion
s)
Main Telephone Lines
Mobile Subscribers
World’s Mainlines vs Mobile Sub.
Telecom Market has changed
Fix Line
Mobile
Broadband
Search Web 1.0
Email Web 2.0
Internet Protocol
Internet has kicked off rapid growth inData Communication – the IP protocol
DNS
BroadbandAccess
Internet
PtP
e-Commerce
Internet
LegacyPSTN/Mobile
SBC
Soft-SWSIP-I
Service Provider ‘A’
InternetUser
VoIP Boom … the start of NGN Model
SBC
Soft-SW
Service Provider ‘B’
LegacyPSTN/Mobile
MGMG
IPPABX
IPPABX
MG AGAG MG
Fix Line
Mobile
Broadband
Search Web 1.0
PtP Email Web 2.0
e-Commerce InternetServers
Access
Internet Backbone
New Business comes ‘Over The Top’
Competition on
Coverage
Competition on
Innovative&TTM
Since 1993 (Mosaic), millions of data & applications. are served
to the Global Communities over Internet.
Demand for Internet Bandwidth
The New York Times report in Mar.08
Global Internet traffic could
quadruple by 2011.
Voice Trend : Changes in Usage
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2007 2012 2017
% of Total Mobile Voice Minutes, Europe
Traditional Telephony (Circuit or IP Equivalent)
Enhanced Carrier Voice
(Presence, Wideband Audio)
Private Voice Apps & Handsets (eg. Skype, Google)
Others (eg. Click-to-Call, Social Networking, Game with voice)
Source :
Fragmentation of the ‘Service Transport’
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
PSTN& Broadband OtherMSC Internet
Proportion of end-user value that flow to each major service/content transport system
PSTN & SMSC NGN Broadband Internet Others (incl. internet app.)
Source :
Today(2007)
2012 2017
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
PSTN& Broadband OtherMSC Internet
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
PSTN& Broadband OtherMSC Internet
% % %
Now Eco-System : Digital Delivery & Community
Email, Messaging & Search
e-Commerce & Logistics
Peer-to-Peer
Digital Contents
Web 2.0
OnlineCommunity
Geography Positioning
Broadband AccessBy Telcos
- Social Network- Blogs- Wikipedia- Virtual Reality
Person of the year 2006 You ! (Times New Year 2007)
New Era of the Industry, Convergence to come
Brokers may be required to deliver SLA to various Service Providers from various Network Providers in each
country.
DevicesEnd User ServicesService
ProvidersNetworks/
Technologies(suppliers)
ConsumersHouseholdsYouthProfessionalSeniorsetcBusinessSMECorporateHomesAutomobiles
Fixed phoneMobile phoneDesktop PCLaptopPDASmartphonePersonal GWCameraMP3 playerGames
console
VoiceEmailIMSMS/TextMMSGamesVideo confVideo
streamingeCommerceBrowsingEnterprise appsTrackingTelemetryPush-to-Talk
Pure fixedBTPure mobile.VodafoneMVNOsVirginTescoTele2Fixed/MobileVerizonOrange
Fixed voice PSTNCellularGSM/GPRS/W-CDMA/
HSDPACDMA/1x/EVDOFixed Wireless802.11802.16802.20Smart antennasSoftware defined radioSoft switchesBluetooth/UWBDAB, DVB-H/TCompression…
NewsCNNNews CorpImages & VideoTime WarnerSonyDisneyMusicEMISonyiTunes
Industry Convergence
Media/ Content
Communication
“Voice”
Fix Line
Mobile
OtO, OtM
“Internet”
Broadband
iPhoneAppStore
MSoftSkyMarket
AndroidMarket
Different OS Environment
App. Partnership
ApplicationStores
Access
Bit&Pipe Telco
AtP“Online Market
Place”Symbian Window
MobileiPhone Android
NokiaMarket
Next Evolution will be towards Application Delivery
MobileBroadband
Convergence in view of network operator means to open your network to various new business opportunities from various new applications that serve lifestyles of the Internet Communities (may not just your country)
What is Convergence ?
( in a smart way that could keep your
business growing. )
FixlineNGN
Internet = Global Backbone
Country ‘A’
IMS Service Provider
New IMS Model
IMSTer.
AG
HSS
MobileNGN
Country ‘B’
New IntelligentUser Devices
AG
VoIP Service Provider
SIPTer.
NetPC
FixlineNGN
MobileNGN
SIP-I
SIP
AG
VoIPServer
SIP AS
DigitalContents
HSS
MGMG
SIP
SIP
PPC
MC@home
IPTV
S/W basedIP agent
SIP SIP SIP
SIP
SIP
Distribution(Wholesale& Retails)
Printing &Publishing
OthersFinancialservice
GovernmentEducation
Identity, Authentication & Security
Marketing, Customer Service & Business Intelligence
Sales & Distributions
Order Fulfillment - Offline
Order Fulfillment – Online (electronic content)
Billing & Payments
Serv
ice
Cap
abili
tiesIndustries
Telco’s Core Competencies which can be used across multiple Verticals
Source : www.stlpartners.com
Fix Line
Mobile
Broadband
Banking Mobile OfficeInteractive
media
Email Web 2.0 RT-MM
Telco’s Core Competencies
App. Server
Access
Billing, CM, D&S
HostedApp.
Service Exchange Framework
Leverage # Mobile
Sub.
LeverageHandset Intelligent
Outsourced IT Service
ASPGlobal
Partners ASP
MobileConsumer
Telcos
Find where you’ll be fitted in the New Eco-System
Mobile Payments
Digital Delivery
Distribution Ch.
MarketMarket
OHA “Open Handset Alliance”
PIPE
““SkymarketSkymarket””
3
Wireless Broadband
500 millions !500 millions !milestone iPhone app.milestone iPhone app. is reached recently.is reached recently.
NetworkOperator
InfrastructureWholesaler
ConvergenceProvider
AllianceValue Chain Partners
ApplicationProvider
Each operator will need its own roadmap
1. “How big is the overall market for specific
or combined service capabilities ?
2. “Which are the most attractive industries to
target first ?
Key Questions to identify your roadmap
Voice +Data
VAS focus on the supplements on voice call and data
services.
Simple CPE, no intelligence.
Network and Operation focus on capacity and reliability.
Legacy NGN
Voice service is provided by leverage on data network layer.VAS are in the form of multimedia
and new value chains. Advanced and many varieties of
CPEs w/ intelligences. Network and Operation has to focus furthermore on response time and security.
“Changes” We need to prepare.
SUMMARY