The Modular Modeling The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A System (MMS): A
Toolbox for Water- and Toolbox for Water- and Environmental-Environmental-
Resources Modeling Resources Modeling
and Managementand Management G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom, R.J. Viger, and L.E. Hay
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO USA
STARTING POINTSSTARTING POINTS
There are no universal modelsThere are no universal models Models for different purposes require Models for different purposes require
different levels of detail and different levels of detail and comprehensivenesscomprehensiveness
Appropriate model process Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of applicationspatial and temporal scales of application
Modeling ConundrumModeling Conundrum
Experimental science builds on Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published based on earlier published hypotheses and resultshypotheses and results
Modelers tend to build from the Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models ground up because existing models are not well designed for are not well designed for incremental incremental improvement by othersimprovement by others
TOOL BOX MODELING TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWSVIEWS
Research Model Developer Research Model Developer Complex Complex DetailDetail
Application Model DeveloperApplication Model Developer Model UserModel User Resource ManagerResource Manager Policy Maker Policy Maker Condensed Condensed
AnalysisAnalysis
LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN
PROCESSPROCESS MODELMODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT
TOOLSTOOLS
Single Purpose
Multi-objective, Complex
LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN
PROCESSPROCESS MODELMODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLSANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
CRITERIA AND RULES CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE FOR GOOD MODULE
DESIGNDESIGN
relate directly to real world relate directly to real world components or processescomponents or processes
have input and output variables have input and output variables that are measurable valuesthat are measurable values
communicate solely via these communicate solely via these input and output variablesinput and output variables
Modules should
Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16
Model Building Tool - XMBUILD
SELECTED MODELS SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN AND MODULES IN
MMSMMS USGSUSGS
PRMSPRMS GSFLOWGSFLOW WEBMODWEBMOD
OTHEROTHER TOPMODELTOPMODEL Hydro-17 (NWS Hydro-17 (NWS
snowmelt)snowmelt) Sacramento Model Sacramento Model
(NWS)(NWS) Snowmelt Runoff Snowmelt Runoff
Model (SRM) (ARS)Model (SRM) (ARS) ENNS Model ENNS Model
(modified HBV, (modified HBV, Austria)Austria)
LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN
PROCESSPROCESS MODELMODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLSANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling
MODFLOW
PRMS
DAFLOW
GSFLOW -- Coupled GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone and Unsaturated Zone
ModelsModels
Streamflow
Unsaturated Zone Model:
PRMS to UNSAT UNSAT to MODFLOW
PRMS to SFR
PRMS to MODFLOW
MODFLOW to SFR
LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN
PROCESSPROCESS MODELMODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLSANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
LOOSELEY COUPLED LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELSMODELS
Watershed Model
Hydraulics Model
Database
Fish Model
Data Management Interface (DMI)
MMS Model
Off-the-shelf Model
LOOSELEY COUPLED LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELSMODELS
Watershed Model
Hydraulics Model
Fish Model
Velocity HSI - Brown Trout
00.20.40.6
0.81
1.2
0 1 2 3 4
velocity m/s
HS
I
Adult
Juvenile
Fingerling
Spawning
LOOSELEY COUPLED LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELSMODELS
Watershed Model
Hydraulics Model
Fish Model
PRMSPRMS
Habitat Habitat Suitability Suitability
IndexIndex
Channel Geometry Analysis Program
(CGAP)
Coupled Model ResultsCoupled Model Results
LOOSELEY COUPLED LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELSMODELS
Watershed Model
Hydraulics Model
Database
Fish Model
Data Management Interface (DMI)
MMS Model
Off-the-shelf Model
Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]
OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)
LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN
PROCESSPROCESS MODELMODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLSANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
Watershed and River Systems Management
Program
Recreation
Municipal & Industrial
Riparian Habitat
Hydropower
Irrigation
Endangered Species
Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.
RiverWare – Lower Colorado River
Upper Gunnison River Upper Gunnison River DSSDSS
HydrologicDatabase
Hydromet
Real-time climate data feed
RiverWareReservoir and River System
Operations Model
DMI
DMI
DMI
Object User InterfaceInterface for data visualization
and modelingModular Modeling System
Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)
DMI
Generic DSS Framework Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of for a Wide Range of Management IssuesManagement Issues
AnyDatabase
Climate Data Source
Object User InterfaceInterface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling SystemPhysical Process Models
DMI
DMI
DMI
MMI
Any Resource Management Model
WARSMP WARSMP BasinsBasins
Currently Active
Under Development
Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima
San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia
Future
Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon
LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN
PROCESSPROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT
TOOLSTOOLS
GIS WEASELDelineation:•Only requires elevation Grid as input
•Interactively delineate •Area of Interest•Many kinds of features
•Streams•Elevation bands•Landuse•Contributing areas•Topographic index•……
Vegetation Type (USFS)
Vegetation Density (USFS)
Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)
DIGITAL DATABASESDIGITAL DATABASES STATSGO Soils (USDA)
Satellite SW Radiation (U Md)
Monthly PET
AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL
GIS WEASELParameterization:•200+ methods available•Easily add custom methods
•Configure recipes•Apply to feature maps
•Exploit many types of data•Produce maps and ASCII files of parameters
PARAMETER
PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD
MODEL RECIPE FILE
Multi-step CalibrationMulti-step Calibration
Multi-step calibration Multi-step calibration visualizationvisualization
ANALYSIS and ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLSSUPPORT TOOLS
Currently Available
Statistical and Graphical Analyses
Parameter Optimization
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
Beta TestingShuffle Complex Evolution Optimization
Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM)
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)
Visualization
Forecast MethodologiesForecast Methodologies
- Historic data as analog for the future
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
-Synthetic time-series
Weather Generator
- Atmospheric model output
Dynamical Downscaling
Statistical Downscaling
MMS Development is MMS Development is Accomplished Through Accomplished Through
Collaborative Multi-Collaborative Multi-disciplinary Effortsdisciplinary Efforts
Sleepers River, Vermont
Trout Lake, Wisconsin
Panola Mountain, Georgia
Luquillo, Puerto Rico
Loch Vale, Colorado
WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM
USGS
WEBMODWEBMOD
PRMS
National Weather Service - Hydro17
TOPMODEL
Next step: Use tracers to constrain the hydrologic solutions
Use Chemical and Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Simulated Evaluate Simulated
Flow Paths and Flow Paths and Residence TimesResidence Times
Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC
Satellite image of the Rodeo and Chediski fires before they merged into one fire, eventually burning some 470,000 acres
Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation Change on Water and Energy Change on Water and Energy
PartitioningPartitioning
Fool Creek Watershed, Fraser Experimental Forest, Colorado (714 acres)
Managed Natural
Issues: Process, Scale, Parameter Estimation
Vegetation Management ModelUS Forest Service,
Missoula, Mt
•Simulates vegetation patterns and processes emphasizing the dynamics of landscape level change. •Produces ensemble output
Integrating Science with Resource Management through Collaborative Approaches and
Adaptive Modeling Systems
Land Use Climate CO2 Human population Invasive species
GD WRD
BRDNMD
Physicalmodels
•Resource availability
•Public land management
•Restoration plans
•…
•Flood & drought impacts
•Vegetation change
•Wildland fire
•Grazing impacts
•Landslides
•Water quality
Science Synthesis Modeling Framework Development
NPS CESU
USFSBLM
SIMPPLLE +
Resource Management
Initial DSS Development
AreaUSGS, NPS, USFS, BLM, BIA, CO State University, N AZ University
Integrating Water-Integrating Water-Resource and Socio-Resource and Socio-
Economic ModelsEconomic Models Population and Demand ForecastsPopulation and Demand Forecasts Water MarketsWater Markets
(change in ownership in perpetuity)(change in ownership in perpetuity) Water BankingWater Banking
(lease options over some period of (lease options over some period of time)time)
Issue: The better the prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of water, the better the markets can perform.
This requires the full integration of physical-process and socio-economic models to optimize economic and institutional analyses.
Adding Water Banking Adding Water Banking to a Water Resources to a Water Resources
Decision-Support Decision-Support SystemSystem
HydrologicDatabase
Hydromet
Real-time climate data feed
RiverWareReservoir and River System
Operations Model
Object User InterfaceInterface for data visualization
and modelingModular Modeling System
Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)
DMI
DMI
DMI
DMIWater
Banking
DMIs
MMS UNIVERSITY MMS UNIVERSITY COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION
University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona NSF fundedNSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid -- Sustainability of semi-Arid
Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA)Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) University of ColoradoUniversity of Colorado
NOAA fundedNOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecaststerm forecasts
University of Nevada RenoUniversity of Nevada Reno Desert Research Institute fundedDesert Research Institute funded – Watershed – Watershed
modeling and coupled SW/GW modelingmodeling and coupled SW/GW modeling Colorado State UniversityColorado State University
Interagency MOU funded – Interagency MOU funded – GeoLEM and GeoLEM and Parameter estimation, optimization, and Parameter estimation, optimization, and sensitivity analysis toolssensitivity analysis tools
Working with the NRCS to incorporate the USGS Modular Modeling
System into the NRCS forecasting
toolbox
Integrated Framework Integrated Framework DevelopmentDevelopment
Collaborative effort to integrate the Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the
Modular Modeling System (MMS)Modular Modeling System (MMS)
OMS PlatformM
odelC
ore
ModelB
uild
er
RZ
WQ
M
PR
MS
Data
base
Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,…
Java C
om
pile
r
XM
L
Test
ing
C+
+
Oth
er…
- ARS - USGS - NRCS
-Friedrich Schiller University, Germany
Branding
Other Model Integration Other Model Integration ApproachesApproaches
U.S.U.S. BASINS (EPA)BASINS (EPA) FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA)FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA) DIAS (DOE)DIAS (DOE) XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS
Inc.)Inc.) OMS (USDA)OMS (USDA)
InternationalInternational HarmonIT (Europe)HarmonIT (Europe) Catchment Modeling Toolkit Catchment Modeling Toolkit
(Australia)(Australia)
MMS SUMMARYMMS SUMMARY Integrated toolbox approach to model Integrated toolbox approach to model
development and application for water- and development and application for water- and environmental-resources managementenvironmental-resources management
Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-specific needsspecific needs
Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systemsdecision support systems
Flexible framework approach enables the Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology as well as databases, and computer technology as well as changes in management objectiveschanges in management objectives
Open source software design allows many to Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costsshare resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs
Chicken Soup for the Modeling Chicken Soup for the Modeling SoulSoul
“A fool with a tool is still a fool.”
System Development magazine
POINTPOINT
MORE INFORMATIONMORE INFORMATION
http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mmshttp://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms
http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weaselweasel
http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmpwarsmp
http://oms.ars.usda.govhttp://oms.ars.usda.gov
http://www.iscmem.orghttp://www.iscmem.org