The Mathematics of Poker– Implied Pot Odds

Strategy: No-Limit

What are implied pot odds?

► Implied pot odds ▫ Modified pot odds that speculate on another bet from your opponent if

you hit your hand.• Example: “the “Call20” rule from the SHC

▫ If calling before the flop is unprofitable through pot odds alone, it can still be profitable through implied pot odds.

▫ In No Limit Hold’em, you usually deal with implied pot odds, because the bets can be very high.

Implied pot odds:Ratio between the “current pot + suspected future bets from your opponent” : “the amount you have to pay”.

What are implied pot odds? – example #1

Hero (BB) $25 MP3 $25CO $25SB $25

Preflop:

5 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks.

Flop: ($ 1.00)

SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds.

Flop:Actual Pot Odds: 3:1Required Pot Odds: 4:1

Implied Pot Odds (Flop):For the required pot odds of 4:1, $0.50 are missing in the pot. This must be invested on the turn by an opponent if you hit.

The probability of this is high –> call.

Turn:Actual Pot Odds: 2.1:1Required Pot Odds: 4:1

Turn: ($ 2.00)

SB bets $1.75, Hero folds.

Implied Pot Odds (Turn): For the required pot odds of 4:1, $3.25 are missing in the pot. Since your play suggests a draw, it is improbable that your opponent will pay on the river if your flush comes–> Fold.

What influences your implied pot odds?

► How loose is your opponent?▫ If your opponent is very loose post-flop, your implied pot odds

increase.

▫ If your opponent is very loose pre-flop, your implied pot odds decrease.• Exception: Maniacs!

► How much strength is your opponent showing?▫ The stronger your opponent’s hand, the more difficult it will be for him

to give it up.

► How obvious is your hand?▫ The more obvious your hand, the less your implied pot odds.

What influences your implied pot odds?

► Do you have position on your opponent?▫ Your implied odds are better in position than out of position.

► Are you on the flop or turn?▫ You usually have more implied pot odds on the flop, because there are

still two betting rounds after this.

► How big are the stacks involved in the hand?▫ The more money that is there, the more you can win.

What are implied pot odds? – Example #2

Hero (CO) $25 UTG2 $25

Preflop:

1 fold, UTG2 calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero raises $1.25, 3 folds, UTG2 calls $1.

Flop: ($ 2.85)

UTG2 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG2 raises $6, Hero calls $4.

Flop:Actual Pot Odds: 2.7:1Required Pot Odds: 4:1

Implied Pot Odds (Flop):For the required pot odds of 4:1, $5.5 is missingin the pot. Since a check raise shows a lot ofstrength, it can be assumed that your opponentwill still invest money –> Call.

Turn:Actual Pot Odds: 2.8:1Required Pot Odds: between 4:1 & 5:1

Turn: ($ 14.85)

UTG2 bets $8, Hero folds.

Implied Pot Odds (Turn):The pot on the river with a call from youIs $30.85 and you can win an additional $10. Your implied pot odds on the turn are thusAt 4.1:1 –> Fold.

Summary

► Your implied pot odds increase…

▫ …if your opponent is showing strength.

▫ …if your hand is less obvious.

▫ …if it is harder for your opponent to fold a hand.

► Implied pot odds are…

▫ …higher on the flop than on the turn.

▫ …higher if you are playing in position.

Implied pot odds are important, but be careful when judging how much money your opponent is prepared to pay.