1
Don Smale Secretary-General
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
International Copper Study Group International Nickel Study Group
CNIA/Antaike China Nonferrous Metals Forum London, United Kingdom, 13 October 2015
The Impact of China’s ‘New Normal’ on the Global Copper, Lead Zinc and Nickel Market
China’s ‘New Normal’
Slower but better quality growth
Rebalancing and diversifying economy
Shift to consumer-led demand
Focus on the environment and sustainability
More equitable distribution of benefits
Importance of innovation emphasised
2 International Copper Study Group
INTERNATIONAL STUDY GROUPS INTRODUCTION
Shared headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal, since 2006
Intergovernmental organizations consisting of member governments plus the European Union representing metals producing and using countries
International Lead and Zinc Study Group: established in 1959, has presently 30 members
International Copper Study Group: established in 1992, has presently 24 members
International Nickel Study Group: established in 1990, has presently 15 members
3 International Copper Study Group
STUDY GROUPS MAIN OBJECTIVES & FUNCTIONS
To conduct consultations and exchanges of information on the international copper, nickel, lead & zinc economies.
To improve statistics on these metals.
To increase market transparency.
To undertake studies on issues of interest to the Groups.
To consider special problems or difficulties that exist or may arise in these metal’s international economies. The Study Groups endeavour to provide its membership with the most accurate, comprehensive and timely information on capacities, production, usage, trade, stocks, prices, technologies, research and development, and other areas that may influence the supply and demand for copper, nickel, lead & zinc.
4 International Copper Study Group
Markets: forecasts of supply and demand for metals a year ahead
Trade: monitoring of international trade in metals
Environmental policy: sharing information on approaches to regulation
Industry Advisory Panel: metals industry executives provide input to member governments
Invite observer countries, industry and observer organizations such as UNCTAD, World Bank, UNIDO, Common Fund for Commodities and metals associations
STUDY GROUPS FORUMS FOR DISCUSSION
5 International Copper Study Group
ICSG Membership
Australia
Belgium
Chile
China
Finland
European Union
France
Germany
Greece
India
Italy
Japan
Iran
Spain
Sweden
United States
Zambia
Luxembourg
Mexico
Peru
Poland
Portugal
Russian Fed.
Serbia
Membership open to any country involved in copper production, usage, or trade. 24 member governments (>80% of global copper industry)
ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS
Copper Bulletin (monthly): includes annual and monthly statistics, by country, on copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper usage and trade, as well as stocks and exchange prices, providing a global view of supply and demand.
Statistical Yearbook : As above, covering the past 10 years.
Monthly Press Release on the state of the copper market (to be included in the email distribution list please contact [email protected])
World Copper Market Forecast: Prepared twice a year for the following two years.
Copper Factbook: The Factbook provides a broad overview of all facets of copper, from production to trade, usage, recycling and more. It is designed to promote copper and educate readers about the importance and contribution of copper to society. Available in ICSG Website, in PDF and in hard copies.
7 International Copper Study Group
ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS Directory of Copper Mines & Plants (semi-annual): The Directory of Copper Mines and Plants highlights current capacity and provides a five year outlook of forecasted capacity for over 1,000 existing and planned copper mines, smelters and refineries on a country by country basis. Salient details for each operation are included and the Directory separates operations between Operating, Developing, Exploration and Feasibility stages.
Directory of Copper & Copper Alloy Fabricators - First Use (annual): This directory provides a global overview of companies and plants involved in the first use of copper. First users are semis fabricators that process refinery shapes into semi-finished copper & copper alloy products. The Directory covers wire rod plants, ingot makers, master alloy plants, brass mills, and electrodeposited copper foil mills.
ICSG Online Statistical Database: The ICSG maintains one of the world's most complete historical and current databases with statistics on copper production capacities, data on copper production, consumption, stocks, prices, recycling and trade for copper products. The database is accessed via ICSG website. Specific data extraction tools enable users to download the data they require with the layout best suited for their analysis into an Excel spreadsheet.
8 International Copper Study Group
9 9
ILZSG Membership
Membership open to any country involved in lead and/or zinc production, usage, or trade.
30 members (>85% of global lead/zinc industry):
Australia
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
China
Finland
France
Germany
India
Iran
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea Rep. Mexico
Serbia
Sweden
Thailand
Turkey
United States
European Community
Morocco
Namibia
Netherlands
Norway
Peru
Poland
Portugal
Russian Fed.
10
ILZSG Main Publications
Lead and Zinc Statistics: Monthly Statistical Bulletin (including access to Interactive Statistical Database – data 1988-2014)
Lead and Zinc Interactive Mine and Smelter Database
Lead and Zinc New Mine and Smelter Projects 2015
Zinc Recovery from Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Dust 2015
Lead-Acid Industrial Batteries 2015
The Chinese Primary and Secondary Lead Metal Sector 2014
Environment and Health Controls on Lead 2014
Environment and Health Controls on Zinc 2014
Risk Factors in Developing Mineral and Metal Projects 2014
World Directory: Lead and Zinc Mines 2014
World Directory: Primary & Secondary Zinc Plants 2014
The By-Products of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel
China Lead Acid Battery Market (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)
China Zinc Recycling Industry (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)
50% Discount
For companies based in member
countries
INSG Member Countries
European Union
Greece
Portugal
Brazil
France
Japan
Sweden
Australia
Finland
Italy
Russian
Federation
Cuba
Germany
Norway
United
Kingdom
12
INSG Main Publications
World Nickel Statistics - Monthly Bulletin and Yearbook (includes access to Online Statistical Database)
World Directory of Nickel Production Facilities 2015 (July 2015)
Primary Nickel Usage: New Frontiers in China (March 2015, prepared for INSG by Antaike)
Nickel – A Surface Technology Material 2014 (July 2014, prepared for INSG by Heinz Pariser)
China's Nickel Mine and Refined Nickel Production 2014 (March 2014, prepared for INSG by BGRIMM)
Cobalt as a By-Product of Copper and Nickel (March 2014)
Report on Taxation and Fiscal Incentives of Copper, Zinc, Lead And Nickel (January 2014)
Report on Risk Factors (January 2014)
Other publications
Up to 50% discount
For companies based in member
countries
13
Review and Outlook for Copper
14
2014 World Copper Reserves & Mine Production (contained copper metal)
Identifyed Resources 2,100 Mt
Reserves 700 Mt
1/ Undiscovered resources not including deep sea nodules and land-based and submarine massive sulfides Source: USGS (resources/reserves data) and ICSG (capacity/production data)
Not to scale
Mine Capacity 21.7 Mt Mine
Production 18.7 Mt
Total Resources (identified and undiscovered1)
5,600 million tonnes (Mt)
International Copper Study Group
World Copper Reserves 2014 Breakdown
• Despite increased consumption of copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more copper available to the world than at any other time in the past.
Chile, Australia and Peru account for half of the current World Copper Reserves reported by USGS
15
Chile30%
Australia13%Peru
10%United States
5%
Mexico5%
China4%
Russia4%
Indonesia4%
Poland4%
DRC3%
Zambia3%
Other15%
Source: USGS
16
Average annual grow rate in the last century: 4% Average annual grow rate in the last decade: 2.3 %
Average annual grow rate in this decade: 2.8% Source: ICSG
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
World Copper Mine Production, 1900-2015 (thousand metric tonnes copper)
Source: ICSG
Concentrates SX-EW
17
Market changed substantially since last 5 months FALLING COPPER PRICE
PRODUCERS REACTING with PRODUCTION CUTS
EXTREME WEARTHER CONDITIONS (El Niño impact)
CHINA SLOWDOWN (New Normal?)
WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED DOWNWARDS
Issues led to revisions in previous forecasts for 2015/2016
Market changed substantially in last 5 months
FALLING COPPER PRICE The Copper price fell from 6200US$/t at the April meeting to around 5000US$/t currently It reached the lowest level since Jul 2009 on 24th August (4888US$/t) The 2015 average to date (5700$/t) is the lowest since 2009 and prices declined by 20% since the beginning of the year
18
Cu price since ICSG April Meeting Cu price since 2008 crisis
475052505750625067507250775082508750
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$/tLME Copper Price
2007-2015*
*2015 to date
4,750
5,000
5,250
5,500
5,750
6,000
6,250
6,500
23/A
prM
ay15
Jun1
5
Jul1
5
Aug
15
Sep
15US$/t
LME Copper Price(daily 23/Apr - 30/Sep 2015)
Market changed substantially in last 5 months
PRODUCERS REACTION TO FALLING COPPER PRICES: Reduction in capital expenditure Cuts in planned production Savings in operating, administrative and exploration costs Deferral in project investment Temporary closures Increased efforts to avoid further decline in company share prices
19
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
(000
t C
u)
Mine projects currently under feasibility
Mines currently in development
Mines currently operating (incl. expansions & closures)
Copper Price (US$/t)
World Copper Mine Production Capacity Trend vs Copper Price
Financial Crisis
201 5 copper price is avg Jan-Sep
Source: ICSG
Market changed substantially in last 5 months ANNOUNCED PRICE-RELATED PRODUCTION CUTS
20
Country Mine Operator Process 2014 production
(kt Cu)
Announcement date
Action Duration
USA Miami Freeport SX-EW 26 end Aug 15 closure
USA Tyrone Freeport SX-EW 43 end Aug 15 50% cut mining rates
Chile El Abra Freeport/ Codelco SX-EW 166 end Aug 15 50% reduction of mining and
stacking rates
Chile CollahuasiAnglo American/ Glencore
Concs & SX-EW 445 & 25 end Sep 15 Cut in SX-EW production of
30ktpy NA
USA Ray Asarco Concs & SX-EW 53 & 29 end Aug 15
40% cut in output (indefinite shutdown of concentrator and reduction in stripping for leach operation)
adjustments may be made as market conditionswarrant.
CongoKatanga (Kamoto) Glencore SX-EW 160 Sep-15 suspension of operations 18 month
ZambiaMopani mines Glencore Concs &
SX-EW 110 Sep-15 suspension of operations 18 month
ZambiaMopani refinery Glencore Eletrolytic/
SX-EW 185 Sep-15suspension of operations (might continue concs toll smelting and refined production)
18 month
NamibiaOtjihase and Matchless Weatherly Concs 6 Sep-15 closure to be reviwed when market
conditions improve
Botswana Mowana African Copper Concs 10 Mar-15 C&M NA
These plans will continue to be reviewed and additional adjustments may be made
as market conditions warrant
Source: ICSG
Market changed substantially since last 5 months
EXTREMER WEARTHER CONDITIONS (El Niño impact) Drought in the central part of Chile affecting the mining industry after operations were affected by severe rain at the beginning of 2015 Los Bronces total net impact of water constraints in 1H2015 is 28kt Cu. Centinela copper in concentrate production for 1H2015 was 4.7% lower reflecting lower throughput as a result of the heavy rains in the Atacama Desert in March. Los Pelambres production impacted by protesters that blocked access to the mine for ten days seeking action to help alleviate the current drought conditions in the region. (-15kt Cu) In 3Q2015 Grasberg milling operations impacted by a reduction in process water available under El Nino conditions (-10kt Cu) OK Tedi mine closed in August as dry weather is preventing navigation in the Fly river to access the mine (-30kt Cu) In Zambia reduced rainfall let to electricity shortage with power being reduced by 30% to the mining industry. Mines and plants operating at reduced levels, Sentinel new mine project process plant shut in July
21 Kt= Thousand Tons,
22
CHINA DATA WEAKER THAN EXPECTED China represents 45% of the world demand (1% change in Chinese usage growth is currently equivalent to around 100kt) August PMI fell to the lowest level (47 points) since March 2009 Worse than expected industrial copper demand in July and August led analysts to revise downwards usage growth rates Lower electronic products exports, lower aircon sales, slower growth in auto production, lower auto production, sluggish house market But strong growth is seen in the infrastructure and power industry as China is accelerating spending in power distribution
Forecast 2015 2016April 15 4.2% 4.5%Sep 15 3.7% 3.7%
China Indutrial UsageForecast Revisions
ICSG Survey avg
Market changed substantially since last 5 months
But beside production cuts/temporary closures ... some new mines are expected to start/expand in 2015-2016
23
Country 2015 2016Armenia Teghout 30kt (Conc.), started Jan 2015
Canada Red Chris 40kt (conc), production Feb 2015
Chile Antucoya 85kt (SXEW)
ChinaJiaMa phase II 15kt exp in 2016 (Conc.), Shaxi
16kt (Conc.), Duobaoshan 10kt exp (Conc.), Zijinshang 18kt exp (conc)
DRC Kalumines 40kt (conc)Sicomines 50kt (SX-EW), Kipoi 25kt exp
(SXEW), Frontier 20kt exp (conc)
Iran Darehzar 26kt (Conc.)
Kazakhstan Bozshakol 100kt (Conc.) , Aktogay 15kt (SXEW)
Mexico Boleo 56kt (SXEW),Buenavista new SXEW III plant started 2014 reaching full cap 120kt in 1Q2016 (SXEW),
Concentrator 188kt exp in 4Q15 (Conc) Myanmar Monywa exp 40 to 50kt (SX-EW) Letpadaung 100kt (SXEW) Namibia Tschudi 17kt (SXEW)
Peru Constancia 120kt (Conc.) started end 2014 with production in 2015
Las Bambas 400kt (Conc.), Cerro Verde II 270ktpy exp (conc)
Romania Baita Bihor 25kt (Conc.)Saudi Arabia Jabal Sayid 45kt (Conc.) Spain Rio Tinto Mines 37kt (Conc.)USA Morenci 100kt exp (conc)
Zambia Sentinel 250kt (conc) Chambishi 50kt expansion (Conc.),
Kt= Thousand Tons, Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants
2015/16 World Copper Mine Production Forecast
24
Recent supply constrains referred led to a downward revision in mine production growths since last ICSG forecast (April) After balancing supply constrains and additional output from new or expanded projects, ICSG expected that world copper mine production might grow by around 1% in 2015 (4% expected in April) and 4% 2016 (5% in April), reaching 18.7Mt copper this year and increasing to 19.5Mt in 2016.
Most of the projects starting in 2014 and also in 2015/2016 are producing concentrates which combined with the recovery in concentrate production in Indonesia will lead to higher growth rates in world concentrate production In 2015, Indonesia and Peru will be the biggest contributors to mine production growth with production declining in Chile, the USA, Zambia and the DRC In 2016 Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Zambia will be the biggest contributors to growth DRC 2015/2016 output impacted by announced production cuts
Source: ICSG
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Concentrate production growth
SX-EW production growth
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Indonesia
Peru
Chile
Zambia
Mexico
United States
China
DRC
Tonnage change - Mine Production ('000t Cu)
20152016
25
Distribution of Copper Mine Production by Country (1990 vs 2016)
Chile to continue the biggest copper mine producer in the world United States losing share and China and Peru increasing its share Africa maintaining the same share at around 10% but more than doubling production to 2Mt copper China share increased from 3% in 1990 to 9% in 2014 and in 2016 will be sharing with Peru the 2nd place as biggest world producer
Source: ICSG
Chile , 17.2%
China , 3.2%
Peru , 3.3%
United States , 17.2%
Australia , 3.5%
Zambia , 4.6%Congo , 3.9%
Russian Fed. , 8.7%
Canada , 8.6%
Indonesia , 1.8%
Mexico , 3.6%
Poland , 3.6%
Kazakhstan , 3.4%
Iran , 0.7%Brazil , 0.4%
Others, 16.3% 1990 Chile, 29.1%
China, 9.1%
Peru, 8.9%United States,
6.6%
Australia, 4.9%
Zambia, 4.4%Congo, 4.2%
Russian Fed., 3.7%
Canada, 3.5%
Indonesia, 4.4%
Mexico, 3.5%
Poland, 2.1%
Kazakhstan, 2.5%
Iran, 1.4% Brazil, 1.8%Others , 9.9% 2016
2015/16 World Refined Copper Production Forecast
26
Chinese refined production is continuing its expansion trend although at more “New normal” lower growth levels than the 14% average annual growth of the last three years (avg 6% for 2015/2016) China will still remain by far the biggest contributor to refined production growth in 2015/2016 Chile and the DRC production expected to decline due to decreases in SX-EW output SX-EW expansion in Zambia and Mexico contributing to world growth After strong growth of 7% in 2014, world copper refined production expected to grow by around 1% and 3% respectively in 2015 and 2016
Source: ICSG
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
'00
0t
Cu
World Refined Production
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
China
Zambia
Mexico
DRC
Indonesia
Korean Rep.
United States
EU
Japan
Chile
Tonnage change - Refined Production ('000t Cu)
2015
2016
27
Distribution of Copper Refined Production by Country (1990 vs 2016)
Source: ICSG
Strong growth in Chinese refined production, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to 36% by 2016 United States and Japan losing share Africa maintaining the same share at around 6% but more than doubling production to 1.4Mt copper
China, 5.2%
Chile, 11.1%
Japan, 9.3%
United States, 18.7%
Russian Fed., 7.4%India, 0.4%Zambia, 4.1%
Germany, 4.9%
Korean Rep., 1.7%
Poland, 3.2%
Australia, 2.5%
Spain, 1.6%Belgium, 3.1%
Kazakhstan, 3.4%
Peru, 1.7%
Others, 21.7% 1990
China, 36.4%
Chile, 10.6%
Japan, 6.6%United States,
4.5%
Russian Fed., 3.8%
India, 3.3%
Zambia, 2.3%
Germany, 2.9%
Korean Rep., 2.9%
Poland, 2.2%Australia, 2.1%
Spain, 1.8%Belgium, 1.6%
Kazakhstan, 1.6%
Peru, 1.6%
Others, 15.8% 2016
2015/2016 World Refined Copper Usage Forecast
Following growth of around 7% in 2014, ICSG expects world apparent refined usage in 2015 to decline by 1.2%. This is mainly because apparent demand in China is expected to remain essentially flat, although underlying “real” demand growth in China is estimated by others at around 3-4% (lower than the 4.5-5% anticipated growth in April). On the other hand, usage in the rest of the world is expected to decline by 1.5% impacted lower growth in the world economy For 2016, the growth in world apparent refined usage is expected at around 3% with underlying Chinese industrial demand growth expected at around 4%. Usage in the rest of the world is expected to increase by about 2%.
28 Source: ICSG
REGIONS COPPER USAGE
('000T Cu) 2014 2015 2016
(t) (%) (t) (%) (t) (%)
Africa 247 0 -0.1% 257 11 4.4% 263 6 2.2%
N.America 2,266 -51 -2.2% 2,319 53 2.3% 2,364 45 1.9%
Latin America 579 -33 -5.3% 546 -33 -5.8% 568 22 4.0%
Asean-10 and Oceania 908 -8 -0.9% 932 24 2.7% 1,004 72 7.7%
Asia ex Asean/CIS 14,498 1,454 11.1% 14,420 -78 -0.5% 14,939 519 3.6%
Asia-CIS 102 1 1.0% 103 1 0.5% 103 0 0.5%
EU 3,179 182 6.1% 3,191 13 0.4% 3,195 3 0.1%
Europe Others 1,115 -38 -3.3% 860 -255 -22.8% 875 15 1.8%
WORLD 22,893 1,507 7.0% 22,628 -265 -1.2% 23,310 682 3.0%
WORLD ex-China 11,898 172 1.5% 11,691 -207 -1.7% 11,921 230 2.0%
growth growth growth
29
Distribution of Copper Refined Usage by Country (1990 vs 2016)
Source: ICSG
Strong growth in Chinese apparent refined usage, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to around 49% by 2016 EU share in world usage declining from 29% in 1990 to 12% in 2016 United States share in world usage declining from 20% in 1990 to 8% in 2016 Japan share in world usage declining from around 15% in 1990 to 5% in 2016
China , 5%
United States , 20%
Germany , 9%
Japan , 14.5%
Korean Rep. , 2.9%Russian fed. ,
5.5%India , 1.2%
Italy , 4.4%
Turkey , 0.9%
Brazil , 1.3%Taiwan , 2.5%
Spain , 1.3%Mexico , 1.2%
Belgium , 3.6%
Others, 26%
1990
China, 49%
United States, 8%
Germany, 5%
Japan, 4.5%
Korean Rep., 3.2%
Russian fed., 1.5%
India, 2.1%Italy, 2.4%
Turkey, 2.0%Brazil, 1.6%
Taiwan, 1.9%Spain, 1.5%
Mexico, 1.6%Belgium, 1.1%
Others , 15% 2016
30 International Copper Study Group
Major Uses of Copper: Usage by Region and End Use Sector, 2014
Basis: copper content, thousand metric tonnes Source: International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) and International Copper Association (ICA)
Americas14%
Asia62%
ROW5%
Europe19%
Industrial12%
Transport12%
Infrastructure15%
Building Construction
30%
Equipment31%
ICSG World Copper forecast (Oct 2015) – summary table
ICSG projections for 2015 indicate that the market should essentially remain balanced, while in 2016 ICSG forecasts a small deficit of around 130Kt as demand growth outpaces production growth. This compares with a surplus of 360Kt and 230Kt for 2015 and 2016, respectively, forecast at our April 2015 meeting. The revisions reflect substantial changes in market conditions since April 2015. Although a downward revision has been made to global usage in view of lower than anticipated growth in China, larger downward adjustments have been made to production as a result of recent announcements of production cuts.
The International Copper Study Group recognizes that numerous factors create significant uncertainty, and that the global market balances could vary from those projected currently
1/ Based on a formula for the difference between the projected copper availability in concentrates and the projected use in primary refined production; 2/ Allowance for supply disruptions based on average ICSG forecast deviations for previous 5 years
31
Thousand tonnes Cu
REGIONS
(1000 t) 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
Africa 1,945 1,877 2,006 1,357 1,372 1,349 247 257 263N.America 2,595 2,520 2,741 1,812 1,789 1,894 2,266 2,319 2,364Latin America 7,562 7,705 8,167 3,344 3,191 3,178 579 546 568Asean-10 / Oceania 1,726 1,926 2,270 1,002 934 1,088 908 932 1,004Asia ex Asean/CIS 2,363 2,407 2,564 10,798 11,392 11,868 14,498 14,420 14,939Asia-CIS 578 616 679 370 432 478 102 103 103EU 845 854 873 2,741 2,713 2,696 3,179 3,191 3,195Europe Others 914 925 935 1,056 1,082 1,087 1,115 860 875
TOTAL 18,527 18,830 20,234 22,479 22,904 23,637 22,893 22,628 23,310
World adjusted 1/ 2/ 18,527 18,751 19,542 22,479 22,669 23,183 22,893 22,628 23,310
% change 1.2% 4.2% 0.8% 2.3% -1.2% 3.0%
World Refined Balance (China apparant usage basis) -414 41 -127
MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE
FORECAST TO 2016
32 Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015
The data presented in ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants reflects copper production capacity or capability, not necessarily meaning effective production rates or production forecasts. Actual production may in fact differ significantly from capacity as many factors may negatively impact output levels.
World mine production capacity expected to grow to 27.4 Mt of copper in 2018 from 21.7 Mt in 2014. Concentrate to grow to 21.7Mt and SX-EW to 5.7 Mt.
16,090 16,930 17,854 19,207 20,414 21,741
4,697 4,789 4,9345,187
5,4415,681
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
('000
t Cu)
Projected Trend in Annual World Copper Mine Production Capacity by Product Type
Concentrates SX-EW
33 Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(000
t Cu)
Mine projects currently under feasibility
Mines currently in development
Mines currently operating (incl. expansions & closures)
World Copper Mine Production Capacity Trend by Current Mine Status
Until 2018, 2.9 Mt additional capacities will come from expansion/ramp-up output at mines currently operating (including mines that started in 2014) and around 2.8 Mt will originate in new projects (including 2.2 Mt from projects already in development)
34 Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015
Africa5%
Asia17%
Europe11%
North America
20%
South America
39%
Oceania8%
SHARE in WORLD
2000
Chart 5A Africa13%
Asia22%
Europe8%
North America
14%
South America
38%
Oceania5%
SHARE in WORLD
2018
Chart 5B
0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,500
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
South America
Oceania
GROWTH 2014-2018
Chart 5CSouth America will continue to be the region with the largest copper mining production capacity and will maintain it’s share in world copper production capacity at around 38%. However much of this is owed to the rapid expansion of Peru copper mining industry Africa and Asia are increasing their share from 5% and 17% in 2000 to 13% and 22% by 2018 respectively due to the start-up of new projects.
Regional Trend in World Copper Mine Production Capacity
Chile will retain its position as the biggest copper mine producer in the world but Peru is the leading contributor to world growth
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 35
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Peru
Zam
bia
Mex
ico
Mon
golia
Chi
na
Con
go
Chi
le
Kaz
akhs
tan
Aus
tral
ia
Iran
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Afg
hani
stan
Bra
zil
Mya
nmar
Rus
sia
Oth
ers
('000
t Cu)
SX-EWConcentrates
Projected Copper Mine Production Capacity Increase by Country - 2014/2018
66% of World growth
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 36
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
Brazil Argentina Iran Mongolia Myanmar Papua New Guinea
Philippines Congo
Kt CuProjected Cu Mine Production Capacity at Countries that were
Producing at Low/medium Levels last decade
2000 2014 2018 End decade/Next decade (estim.)
In the last decade we have observed a geographical enlargement of the copper mining industry.
There has been growing interest in developing copper projects in countries that up to now are not mining copper or that had limited production.
Additional output is also arising in countries that have only started copper mine during the last decade or early this decade
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 37
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2008 2012 2014 2018
Kt Cu
Projected Cu Mine Production Capacity at Countries that Started Copper Mining in the Last Decade
Kyrgyzstan
Eritrea
Azerbaijan
Bolivia
Saudi Arabia
Dominican Rep.
Oman
Mauritania
Spain
Laos
Pakistan
Growing interest in developing projects in countries that up to now are not mining copper
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 38
050
100150200250300350400450500
Kt Cu
2015 2018 Medium Term Future (estim.)* Exploration projects
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 39
Resolution
El Pachon
Tampakan
Udokan
Radomiro Tomic (Sulphides)Cobre Panama
Kamoa La Granja
Agua Rica
Wafi Golpu
Quellaveco
El RelinchoDeziwa & Ecaille C
El Galeno
Galore CreekReko Diq
El Arco
Haquira
Rio BlancoPanantzaVizcachitas
Junin
Pumpkin Hollow
Altar
Frieda RiverMichiquillay
Pebble
Los Azules
El Morro
Sentinel Taca Taca
YanderaRosemont
Shaft CreekKing King
CañariacoQulongTia Maria Conga
Constancia CaspicheCerro CasaleMina Justa
Aynak
Las Bambas
Santo Domingo
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
COPPER MINE PROJECTS (cap ≥110Ktpy Cu)
Total annual Capacity of Listed Projects in this chart : 9.5Mt Cu
Projects in this box planned for after 2023
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 40
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Oly
mpi
c D
am
Sal
obo
And
ina
Col
lahu
asi
Que
brad
a B
lanc
a
Spe
nce
El A
bra
Esp
eran
za
Esc
ondi
da
Kam
oto
Bue
navi
sta
del C
obre
Cer
ro V
erde
(Sul
phid
e)
Toqu
epal
a
Kan
sans
hi
(000
t C
u)
2014 Capacity Expansion by 2018 Future currently planned expansion
Capacity Expansion at Selected Mines
Expanded capacity at listed mines = 2.7 Mt Cu
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 41
Looking into the future mining companies are starting now to look at possible offshore deep-sea minerals exploration. The oceans represent around 70% of the world surface and its floor is believed to contain important mineral resources among which are copper, zinc, nickel, manganese, gold and silver. To meet increasing copper demand, the discovery and exploration of new resources will be crucial and sea floor deposits could represent an important opportunity for additional supply. However, the challenge is to be able to exploit those deposits efficiently and turn them into economically-viable operations ICSG identified three off-shore copper projects that could be producing in the near future. Clipperton Fracture Zone in the International Waters of the Pacific Ocean, between Hawaii and Mexico, Atlantis II Bacin Project in Red Sea, and Solwara 1 project located in the Bismarck Sea, Papua New Guinea Other zones where interest in exploration opportunities has risen are mid-Atlantic Ridge and Southwest Indian Ridge.
Source: Nautilus Minerals Inc website
Offshore Deep-Sea Minerals Exploration
China will continue to increase its smelting capacity through expansions and new projects. Indonesia new mining law on banning ore exports leading to the development of new smelter projects in the country In most countries, the increase in smelting production capacity until 2018 is mainly due to expansions at existing plants but some new smelters projects are planned in China, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Zambia. Beyond 2018, a series of potential smelter projects have been announced with no firm confirmation yet.
42 Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 42
-500-250
0250500750
1,0001,2501,5001,750
Chin
a
Zam
bia
Mex
ico
Iran
Phili
ppin
es
Indo
nesi
a
Aust
ralia
Oth
ers
Indo
nesi
a
DRC
Pote
ntia
l (1)
('000
t Cu)
Projected Copper Smelter Production Capacity Increase by Country
(1) Include announced projects that are not yet approved or have been put on hold in India, Mongolia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia
Expected increase until 2018 and after 2018
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 43
Until 2018, world copper refinery capacity expected to grow by 2.9 Mt to 30.2 Mt. 2Mt of the expansion expected to come from electrolytic refineries and almost 1 Mt from electrowinning capacity. Supremacy of Asia over the other regions (currently 47% of total world capacity) Africa copper refined capacity almost tripled from 2000 to 2014 and is expected to increase further until 2018 (all in the form of electrowinning production)
816
3,596 3,3884,879
3,803
6052,459
3,522 3,953
14,907
4,583
7410
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Africa North America South America
Asia Europe Oceania
('000
t Cu)
WORLD COPPER REFINED CAPACITY BY REGION - 2000/2014/2018
2000
2014
2018
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 44
China is by far the biggest contributor to the growth with a strong increase of around 1Mt, representing 38% of the world growth in the period. The DRC and Mexico will be important contributors too These 3 countries represent almost 70% of the world growth
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Chin
a
Mex
ico
Cong
o
Iran
Peru
Indo
nesi
a
Phili
ppin
es
Mya
nmar
Zam
bia
Oth
ers
('000
t Cu)
Electrowinning
Electrolytic
Projected World Copper Refined Capacity Increase by Country - 2014/2018
68% of World growth
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 45
The data presented in ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants reflects copper production capacity or capability, not necessarily meaning effective production rates or production forecasts. Actual production may in fact differ significantly from capacity as many factors may negatively impact output levels. Economic and market conditions, as well as technological and business factors, may also result in production levels that vary from the indicated capacity: production levels may be affected by operational failures, unforeseen cuts in production and closures or by the delay or cancellation of projects.
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
%
'000
T Cu
MINE PRODUCTION CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES
World Mine Production World Mine Production Capacity Mine Capacity Utilization (%)
www.insg.org 46
Review and Outlook for Nickel
www.insg.org 47
Plenty of nickel reserves available to the world
Resources: 130 million tonnes (Mt)
Mine Production
2.1 Mt
Reserves 81 Mt
Not to scale
Source: USGS, INSG
2014
www.insg.org 48
World Nickel Ore Production
(f) forecast October 2015
Africa7%
Americas25%
Indonesia6%
Philippines19%
Other Asia7%
Europe12%
Oceania24%
Asia41%
2016 f
Africa5%Americas
33%
Indonesia10%
Philippines6%
Other Asia5%
Europe23%
Oceania18%
Asia18%
2006
www.insg.org 49
World Primary Nickel Production (1/2)
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2015
www.insg.org 50
World Primary Nickel Production (2/2)
(f) forecast October 2015
Africa5%
Americas16%
China P.R.28%
Other Asia17%
Europe23%
Oceania11%
Asia44%
2016 f
Africa4%Americas
23%
China P.R.10%
Other Asia13%
Europe38%
Oceania12%
Asia21%
2006
www.insg.org 51
NPI Production in China(Kt)
Source: Antaike, SMM, INSG estimates
AVG. 2015 = 34kt/month
www.insg.org 52
China NPI production and Imports of Nickel Ore and
Concentrates
Source: China Customs, INSG estimates
www.insg.org 53
China NPI production and Imports of Ferro-nickel
Source: China Customs, INSG estimates
www.insg.org 54
China NPI production and Imports of Unwrought Nickel
Source: China Customs, INSG estimates
www.insg.org 55
World Primary Nickel Usage (consumption) (1/2)
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2015
www.insg.org 56
World Primary Nickel Usage (consumption) (2/2)
(f) forecast October 2015
Africa1%
Americas10%
China P.R.52%
Other Asia19%
Europe18%
Oceania0.1%
Asia70%
2016 f
Africa3%
Americas13%
China P.R.18%
Other Asia31%
Europe35%
Oceania0.2%
Asia45%
2006
www.insg.org 57
World Primary Nickel Balance - annual
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2015
www.insg.org 58
First-use of nickel - 2014
Source: Heinz Pariser
www.insg.org 59
8.8 10.0 8.7 8.3 6.4 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.6
2.73.0
2.6 2.31.9
2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8
9.610.1
9.38.4
7.5
9.0 8.8 9.3 9.3 9.3
3.2
5.37.2
6.98.8
11.3 14.116.1
19.021.7
24.5
28.7 28.1
26.2 24.9
31.133.6
35.938.5
41.7 42.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
EuroAfrica Americas Asia w/o China China CEE
World Stainless Steel Melting Production
Source: ISSF
www.insg.org 60
Nickel projects Directory 2015
Ore & Concentrate
Intermediate Products
Refined products
Committed Developments 211,500 210,650 782,000
Likely Project Developments 220,300 58,400 114,000
Potential Project Developments 240,700 46,600 488,000
NPI Committed Developments - - 127,800
NPI Likely / Potential Developments - - 249,000
Capacity (Ni content, t/y)
www.insg.org 61
New Nickel Capacity
Note: no NPI projects included.
Project Name / Country Product Mode Estimated Production
Projected Total Production
Remarks
Ambatovy / Madagascar Class I Ramp Up ≈ 50,000 60,000 Open market
Long Harbour / Canada Class I Ramp Up ≈ 15,000 50,000 Mainly replacement
Tagaung Taung / Myanmar FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 21,000 23,000 China
Koniambo / New Caledonia FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 10,000 40,000 Open market
Onça Puma / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 25,000 28,000 Open market
Barro Alto / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 20,000 40,000 Open market
Goro / New Caledonia Semi / Class I Ramp Up ≈ 20,000 60,000 Australia & China
Ramu / PNG Semi Ramp Up ≈ 26,000 30,000 China & Other
Raventhorpe / Australia Semi Ramp Up ≈ 26,000 39,000 Australia & Other
Taganito / The Philippines Semi Ramp Up ≈ 30,000 35,000 Japan
Ban Phuc/Vietnam Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 8,000 10,000 China
Santa Rita / Brazil Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 20,000 25,000 Brazil & Finland
Eagle/USA Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 26,000 26,000 Open market
Kevitsa / Finland Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 6,000 10,000 Open market
www.insg.org 62
World Nickel Ore Production 2013 to 2016 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area 2013 2014 % change
2015 (f)
% change
2016 (f)
% change
Africa 120.1 136.7 13.8 145.2 6.2 153.2 5.5
America 500.9 510.9 2.0 545.0 6.7 567.0 4.0
Asia 1264.6 719.0 -43.1 685.2 -4.7 713.0 4.1
Europe 317.4 325.2 2.5 278.4 -14.4 279.4 0.4
Oceania 409.5 443.8 8.4 445.9 0.5 530.6 19.0
Total 2612.5 2135.6 -18.3 2099.7 -1.7 2243.2 6.8
(f) forecast October 2015
www.insg.org 63
World Primary Nickel Production 2013 to 2016 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area 2013 2014 % change
2015 (f)
% change
2016 (f)
% change
Africa 59.0 75.2 27.5 84.3 12.1 93.0 10.3
America 293.3 294.8 0.5 295.9 0.4 306.0 3.4
Asia 922.4 940.5 2.0 904.5 -3.8 877.5 -3.0
Europe 497.8 483.5 -2.9 462.9 -4.3 445.7 -3.7
Oceania 189.9 199.8 5.2 206.4 3.3 220.0 6.6
Total 1962.4 1993.8 1.6 1954.0 -2.0 1942.2 -0.6
(f) forecast October 2015
www.insg.org 64
World Primary Nickel Usage 2013 to 2016 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area 2013 2014 % change
2015 (f)
% change
2016 (f)
% change
Africa 22.9 21.4 -6.6 22.6 5.6 23.8 5.3
America 174.8 181.9 4.1 182.3 0.2 192.4 5.5
Asia 1233.6 1303.0 5.6 1347.8 3.4 1392.6 3.3
Europe 350.8 354.1 0.9 349.7 -1.2 353.4 1.1
Oceania 2.7 2.7 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.8 3.7
Total 1784.8 1863.1 4.4 1905.1 2.3 1965.0 3.1
(f) forecast October 2013
www.insg.org 65
The impact of Asia and China Nickel Usage (Consumption)
Asia: 47% China: 15%
Asia: 70% China: 51%
www.insg.org 66
Final Remarks • China’s stainless industry has expanded rapidly in recent years. China
economy is moving from investment driven growth to a more sustainable model centred on consumption, innovation and price mechanism. Key policy changes are: curb overcapacity, protect the environment, allocate resources according to the price mechanism. This will have a medium-long term effect on stainless steel production.
• The increase of NPI production in China has been in recent years the real game changer in the nickel market. Its gradual reduction due to the Indonesian ban on ore export will require the use of alternative raw material sources, at least in the short term.
• What effect will the investments in new downstream projects in Indonesia have on the world nickel supply/demand balance and ultimately on the nickel price in coming years?
67
Review and Outlook for Lead & Zinc
68
World Lead Reserves 2014
Resources: >2000 million tonnes (Mt)
Reserve Base 170 Mt
Mine Production
5.0 Mt
Reserves 87 Mt
Sources: USGS, ILZSG
Not to scale
contained lead metal
Australia 40%
China 16%
USA 6%
Peru 8%
Mexico 6%
India 3%
Russia 11%
Other 10%
69 69
World Lead Reserves 2014 Breakdown
Source: USGS
• Despite increased consumption of lead produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more lead available to the world than at any other time in the past
70
World Zinc Reserves 2014
Resources: about 1900 million tonnes (Mt)
Reserve Base 480 Mt
Mine Production
13.3 Mt
Reserves 230 Mt
Sources: USGS, ILZSG
Not to scale
contained zinc metal
71 71
World Zinc Reserves 2014 Breakdown
Source: USGS
Australia 27%
China 19% Peru
13%
Kazakhstan 4%
Mexico 7%
USA 4%
Canada 3%
Other 23%
• Despite increased consumption of zinc produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more zinc available to the world than at any other time in the past
72 72
Lead Mine Supply 1966-2016f
Source: ILZSG
73
Breakdown of Lead Mine Production By Continent, 2014
Europe 8% Africa
2%
America 21%
Asia 54%
Oceania 15%
Source: ILZSG
74
Distribution of Lead Mine Supply
Peru 8.8% USA
14.8%
China 21.4%
Australia 21.1%
Other 11.8%
Europe 12.1%
Canada 4.8%
Mexico 5.2%
Peru 5.6%
USA 7.5%
China 47.7%
Australia 14.6%
Other 11.3%
Europe 8.3% Canada
0.1%
Mexico 5.0%
2004 2014
Source: ILZSG
75
Selected Recent Lead Mine Openings and Closures
Openings:
Paroo Station, Australia George Fisher, Australia (expansion) McArthur River, Australia (expansion) Garpenburg, Sweden (expansion) Kayar, India
Closures:
Brunswick, Canada Paroo Station, Australia
Annual Capacity*
85,000t 36,000t 51,000t 20,000t 15,000t
-55,000t -85,000t
*Pb Metal contained
2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
2013 2015
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2014 and 2015 Reports, ILZSG
76 76
Zinc Mine Supply 1966-2016f
Source: ILZSG
77
Breakdown of Zinc Mine Production By Continent, 2014
Europe 8%
Africa 2%
America 29%
Asia 49%
Oceania 12%
Source: ILZSG
78
Distribution of Zinc Mine Supply
Peru 14.3%
China 21.3% Australi
15.2%
Other 27.1%
Europe 10.6%
Canada 8.3% India
3.3%
Peru 9.9%
China 36.6%
Australia 11.6%
Other 26.1%
Europe 7.7%
Canada 2.7% India
5.3%
2004 2014
Source: ILZSG
Australia
79
The End of Century -
Selected Zinc Mine Closures 2013 to 2016
Mine Brunswick, Canada
Perseverance, Canada
Lisheen, Ireland
Century, Australia
Bukowno Olkusz, Poland
Skorpion, Namibia
Annual Capacity 240,000t
115,000t
175,000t
510,000t
70,000
154,000t
Closure
2013
2013
2015
2015
2016
2016
80
Selected Recent Zinc Mine Openings Mine
Perkoa, Burkina Faso
Bracemac-McLeod, Canada
Valardena, Mexico
George Fisher, Australia (expansion)
McArthur River, Australia (expansion)
Kyzyl Tashtygskoe, Russia
Garpenburg, Sweden (expansion)
Pend Oreille, United States
Annual Capacity (Zn contained)
95,000t
90,000t
90,000t
64,000t
125,000t
90,000t
60,000t
44,000t
Opened
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2014 and 2015 Reports, ILZSG
81
Selected Committed Additions to Zinc Mine Capacity
Mine
Dugald River, Australia
Lady Loretta, Australia (expansion)
Halfmile Lake, Canada
Caribou, Canada
Cerro Lindo, Peru (expansion)
Ozernoye, Russia
Gamsberg, South Africa
Shalkiya, Kazakhstan
Annual Capacity (Zn contained)
210,000t
47,000t
55,000t
42,000t
45,000t
350,000t
250,000t
110,000t
Scheduled Opening
2017
2016
2016
2015
2015
2018/19
2018
2018
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2014 and 2015 Reports, ILZSG
82
Selected Zinc Mine Projects Under Consideration
Mine
Oued-Amizour (Tala Hamza), Algeria
San Gregorio, Peru
Selwyn (Howards Pass), Canada
Izok Lake, Canada
Bisha, Eritrea
Gergarub, Namibia
Khnaiguiyah, Saudi Arabia
Mehdiabad, Iran
Citronen, Greenland
Estimated Annual Capacity (Zinc contained)
164,000t
105,000t
100,000t
80,000t
90,000t
100,000t
80,000t
400,000t
170,000t
Possible Opening
2019/20
2017
2020
2018
2017
2018
2018
2019
2018
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 and 2014 Reports, ILZSG
More Zinc will be Recovered from EAF Dust
Befesa
Horsehead Corporation (new plant in North Carolina opened in May 2014)
ZincOx Resources
Global Steel Dust
Japan
83
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15
SHFE China Producers + Consumers + LME LME Cash Settlement Price
84
Lead Stocks and Prices Oct 2010 – Oct 2015
Source: ILZSG / LME
tonnes US $ per tonne
monthly average
85
World Lead Demand Forecast
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Source: ILZSG
ILZSG Forecast
•2015 - Global -0.7% - China -0.6% - Ex China -0.7%
•2016 - Global 2.6% - China 2.6% - Ex China 2.7%
Global Annual Change
86 86
Demand from E-bike Sector May Have Peaked E-bike production, China ‘000 units
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Using lithium-ion
Using lead-acid
Source: NBS, CRU, BGRIMM
87
World Lead Mine Supply Forecast (Glencore 9th October production cut not factored in)
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Source: ILZSG
Global Annual Change ILZSG Forecast
•2015 - Global -2.5% - China -1.2% - Ex China -3.6%
•2016 - Global 1.2%
- China 3.1% - Ex China -0.4%
88
World Lead Metal Supply Forecast
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Source: ILZSG
Global Annual Change
ILZSG Forecast
•2015 - Global -1.0% - China -1.1% - Ex China -0.9%
•2016 - Global 3.5% - China 3.2% - Ex China 3.7%
89
World Refined Lead Metal Balance
Source: ILZSG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15
SHFE + SRB China Producers + Consumers + LME LME Cash Settlement Price
90
Zinc Stocks and Prices Oct 2010 – Oct 2015
Source: ILZSG / LME
tonnes US $ per tonne
monthly average
91
World Zinc Metal Demand Forecast
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Source: ILZSG
Global Annual Change ILZSG Forecast
•2015 - Global 1.1% - China 1.4% - Ex China 0.8%
•2016 - Global 3.3%
- China 4.9% - Ex China 2.0%
92
Chinese Galvanized Sheet Production 1993 – 2015f
Source: NBS, Wood Mackenzie
93
World Zinc Mine Supply Forecast (Glencore 9th October production cut not factored in)
0.0%
1.3%
2.5%
3.8%
5.0%
2012 2013f 2014 2015f 2016f
Source: ILZSG
Global Annual Change ILZSG Forecast
•2015 - Global 0.3% - China 1.9% - Ex China -0.6%
•2016 - Global 1.8% - China 7.8% - Ex China -1.8%
94
World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Source: ILZSG
Global Annual Change ILZSG Forecast
•2015 - Global 3.7% - China 6.8% - Ex China 1.3%
•2016 - Global 1.6% - China 3.2% - Ex China 0.3%
95
Zinc Metal World Balance
Source: ILZSG
96
● ICSG: 9 - 10 March 2016
in conjunction with Metal Bulletin International Copper Conference, Lisbon, Portugal
● INSG & ILZSG: 25 - 27 April 2016
including a Joint INSG/ILZSG Seminar
Next Study Group Meetings in Lisbon, Portugal