2020
The
Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications
GT2020, 7/05 1
September 2003Based on Studies for the
National Intelligence Council
Anny Wong, RAND CorporationAnny Wong, RAND Corporation
14 October 200814 October 2008
This briefing is based on the final report from a RAND study: MG-475-NIC, 2006, and TR-303-NIC, 2006. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsTechnology consultants:
Natalie Gassman (nano-drug delivery)Brian Jackson (biotech)Eric Landree (nanotech)Elaine Newton (general tech)Shari Lawrence Pfleeger (infotech)Calvin Shipbaugh (quantum)Felicia Wu (biotech)
Regional consultants:Ramesh Bapat (India)Keith Crane (Europe)
• Co-PIs:
– Richard Silberglitt
– Philip S. Antón
• Core project team
– David R. Howell
– Anny Wong
GT2020, 7/05 2
Keith Crane (Europe)Heather Gregg (Middle East)Nina Hachigian (Asia)Rollie Lal (South Asia)Kevin O’Brien (Africa)Bill Overholt (China)DJ Peterson (Russia)Angel Rabasa (Latin America)Somi Seong (Korea)
Research support:National Intelligence Council
Intelligence Technology Innovation CenterU.S. Department of Energy
Foresight of Technology and Its Implications Through 2020
• Objective:
– Analysis of likely global technology trends and applications
• Social, political, economic, environmental, personal, regional, international impacts
• Approach:
– Tech trend extrapolation and applications
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– Tech trend extrapolation and applications
• Trends were gleaned and balanced from existing outlooks, testimonies, and foresights, providing collective opinions and points-of-view from a broad spectrum of individuals
• Developed a vision of a range of future possibilities rather than a single prediction or scenario
– Regional needs
– Capacity to acquire and implement technology applications
High-Growth Developments: Widespread Food
Manipulation (à la BIO)• GM for food and drug production, improved
nutrition, natural pest resistances, edible vaccines, and environmental resilience
Key Drivers:
• Investments• Scientific
progress
Effects:• Improved nutrition• Improved crop yields & drought tolerance• More land considered arable• Reduced pesticides and deforestation for farming• Possible ecosystem changes• Possible “good gene” hoarding
Range of Possible Technology
Futures and Effects:
Genetically Modified Foods
GT2020, 7/05 42005 2010 2015 2020
Present-daystatus and vectors
Key Barriers:
• Social & ethical rejection
• Unintended environmental effects
Low-Growth Developments: Slow or No-Go
• Limited food, plant, and animal modification• Slow introduction and longer testing• Continued use of traditional GM procedures (cross
pollination, selective breeding, and irradiation of seeds)• Reliance on traditional pest controls and GM procedures
Effects:• Continued slow gains in food production efficiency• Increasing caloric and nutritional shortages in the
developing world
Technology Applications are Implemented to Promote Certain Ends
• Promote rural economic development
• Promote economic growth and international commerce
• Improve public health
• Improve individual health
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• Improve individual health
• Reduce resource use and improve environmental health
• Strengthen the military and warfighters of the future
• Strengthen homeland security and public safety
• Influence governance and social structure
Major Finding: Not All Nations Will Have Capacity to Acquire and Use All Future Technology Applications
• Capacity to acquire is based on S&T capacity in each country
– Acquisition may be through research & development, technology
transfer, licensing, off-the-shelf purchases, copying/piracy.
• Implementation is not automatic
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– Implementation is affected by a confluence of economic,
social, political and other mitigating factors.
• Capacity to use technology applications is based on
– Capacity to acquire + having sufficient drivers to overcome barriers
to implementation.
All Technology Applications Have Technical and Implementation Feasibility Issues
Niche market
(– –)
Medium or large market;
Public policy
issues(–)
Medium market; No public policy
issues(+)
Large market; No public policy
issues
(++)
Highly Feasible
Implementation Feasibility
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Feasible(++)
Feasible(+)
Uncertain(U)
Unlikely(–)
Highly Unlikely
(– –)
Te
ch
nic
al
Fe
as
ibil
ity
High Technical Feasibility,Large Market and No Public Policy Issues
Niche market
(– –)
Medium or large market;
Public policy
issues(–)
Medium market; No public policy
issues(+)
Large market; No public policy
issues
(++)
Highly Feasible
Implementation Feasibility
GT2020, 7/05 8
Feasible(++)
Feasible(+)
Uncertain(U)
Unlikely(–)
Highly Unlikely
(– –)
Te
ch
nic
al
Fe
as
ibil
ity
– Hybrid vehicles (#11)– Rapid bioassays (#5)– Rural wireless communications (#2) – (Internet)
Niche market
(– –)
Medium or large market;
Public policy issues
(–)
Medium market; No public policy
issues
(+)
Large market; No public policy
issues
(++)
Highly
Feasible
Implementation Feasibility
– Genetic Screening – GM Crops (#4)– Pervasive Sensors (#12)
– Implants for Tracking and ID
Technically Feasible Group but Moderated Market or Public Policy Issues
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Feasible(++)
Feasible(+)
Uncertain(U)
Unlikely(–)
Highly Unlikely
(– –)
Te
ch
nic
al
Fea
sib
ilit
y
– Implants for Tracking and ID – Xenotransplantation– CBRN Sensors on ERT
– GM Animals for R&D– Unconventional Transport
Niche market
(– –)
Medium or large market;
Public policy
issues(–)
Medium market; No public policy
issues(+)
Large market; No public policy
issues
(++)
Highly Feasible
Implementation Feasibility
Unlikely 2020 Technically Feasible butLarge to Moderate Market Group
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Feasible(++)
Feasible(+)
Uncertain(U)
Unlikely(–)
Highly Unlikely
(– –)
Te
ch
nic
al
Fe
as
ibil
ity – Cheap Autonomous Housing (#8)
– Print-to-Order-Books
– Drugs Tailored to Genetics – Hydrogen Vehicles
– Artificial Muscles and Tissue
Unlikely Technically Feasible with Moderated Market and/or Public Policy Issues
Niche market
(– –)
Medium or large market;
Public policy
issues(–)
Medium market; No public policy
issues(+)
Large market; No public policy
issues
(++)
Highly Feasible
Implementation Feasibility
– Chip implants for brain
– Memory-enhancing drugs
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Feasible(++)
Feasible(+)
Uncertain(U)
Unlikely(–)
Highly Unlikely
(– –)
Te
ch
nic
al
Fe
as
ibil
ity
– Memory-enhancing drugs
– Robotic scientist
– Super soldiers
– Genetic selection of offspring
– Proxy-bot
– Quantum computers
We Also Assessed Technology Applications for Their Societal Sector Impacts
Wa
ter
Fo
od
La
nd
Po
pu
latio
n
Go
ve
rna
nc
e
So
cia
l Stru
ctu
re
En
erg
y
He
alth
Ec
on
om
ic
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Ed
uc
atio
n
De
fen
se
/Co
nflic
t
En
viro
nm
en
t/ P
ollu
tion
GT2020, 7/05 12
Cheap Solar Energy x x x x x x x x x x
Rural Wireless Communications
x x x x x x x
Genetically Modified Crops
x x x x x x x x
Rapid Bioassays x x x x
Our Assessment Ranked 16 as the Top Illustrative Technology Applications for 2020 (out of 56)
1. Cheap solar energy
2. Rural wireless
Communications
3. Ubiquitous info access
4. Genetically modified crops
9. Green manufacturing
10. Ubiquitous Radio Frequency
Identification (RFID) tagging
11. Hybrid vehicles
12. Pervasive sensors
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4. Genetically modified crops
5. Rapid bioassays
6. Filters and catalysts
7. Targeted drug delivery
8. Cheap, autonomous
housing
12. Pervasive sensors
13. Tissue engineering
14. Improved diagnostic and
surgical methods
15. Wearable computers
16. Quantum cryptography
Countries Were Rated Based on Their Capability to Acquire Representative Applications
AdvancedProficient
DevelopingLagging
Needed Capability Technology ApplicationsCheap solar energyRural wireless communicationsGenetically modified (GM) cropsFilters and catalysts
Low
*** Not every country can acquire all these future technology applications
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Filters and catalystsCheap autonomous housingRapid bioassaysGreen manufacturingUbiquitous RFID taggingMediumHybrid vehiclesTargeted drug deliveryImproved diagnostic and surgical methodsHighQuantum cryptographyUbiquitous information accessTissue engineeringPervasive sensors
Very High
Wearable computers
29 Sample Countries, Ranking by S&T Capacity & No. of Technology Applications They Can Acquire
• Scientifically advanced countries
– Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, Japan, South Korea,
United States (all top 16 for each)
• Scientifically proficient countries
– China, India, Poland, Russia (12 of 16 for each)
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• Scientifically developing countries
– Brazil (9), Chile (9), Colombia (8), Indonesia (9), Mexico (9),
South Africa (9), Turkey (9)
• Scientifically lagging countries
– Cameroon, Chad, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Fiji, Iran,
Jordan, Kenya, Nepal, Pakistan (5 of top 16 for each)
Many Sources Used to Assess National Capacity (and Needs) in Addition to Expert Input
• United Nations Human Development Index
– Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (purchasing power parity)
– Population profile: size, growth rate, gender balance, age (2002, 2015)
– % of GDP for education, research & development, military
– Gender ratio in primary, secondary, tertiary education
– Percentage of population with access to improved water supply and sanitation
– No. of physicians and hospital beds per 100,000 persons
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– No. of physicians and hospital beds per 100,000 persons
– Electricity consumption, per capita in kilowatt hours
– % of population with fixed phone lines, internet access
• Freedom House Political Rights and Civil Liberties
• Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index
• RAND’s Country Index of Science and Technology Capacity
• World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index
– Innovation, Economic Incentive Regime, Education, Information Infrastructure
Drivers for, and Barriers to, Technology Implementation Were Assessed for Each Country
1. Cost and financing
2. Laws and policies
3. Social values, public opinions, politics
4. Infrastructure
5. Privacy concerns
These drivers/barriers
together represent the
Institutional, Physical,
and Human capacities
available in a society to
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5. Privacy concerns
6. Resource use and environmental health
7. Investment in R&D
8. Education and literacy
9. Population and demographics
10. Governance and stability
available in a society to
use technology.
Barriers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
Drivers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
Scientifically Advanced Country: United StatesTop 16 Technology Applications
1. Cheap solar energy
2. Rural wireless comm.
3. Ubiquitous info access
4. Genetically modified crops
5. Rapid bioassays
6. Filters and catalysts
7. Targeted drug delivery
8. Cheap, autonomous housing
9. Green manufacturing
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h. Education & Literacy
i. Population & Demographics
j. Governance & Stability
g. Investment in R&D
h. Education & Literacy
i. Population & Demographics
j. Governance & Stability
Scientifically advanced countries have many drivers and few barriers to enable use of all future technology applications
9. Green manufacturing
10. Ubiquitous RFID
11. Hybrid vehicles
12. Pervasive sensors
13. Tissue engineering
14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods
15. Wearable computers
16. Quantum cryptography
Scientifically Proficient Country: China
Drivers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
Top 16 Technology Applications
1. Cheap solar energy
2. Rural wireless comm.
3. Ubiquitous info access
4. Genetically modified crops
5. Rapid bioassays
6. Filters and catalysts
7. Targeted drug delivery
8. Cheap, autonomous housing
9. Green manufacturing
Barriers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
GT2020, 7/05 19
Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
h. Education & Literacy
i. Population & Demographics
j. Governance & Stability
Scientifically proficient countries have similar numbers of drivers and barriers
9. Green manufacturing
10. Ubiquitous RFID
11. Hybrid vehicles
12. Pervasive sensors
13. Tissue engineering
14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods
15. Wearable computers
16. Quantum cryptography
g. Investment in R&D
h. Education & Literacy
i. Population and Demographics
j. Governance & Stability
Scientifically Developing Country: Brazil
Barriers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
h. Education & Literacy
Drivers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
Top 16 Technology Applications
1. Cheap solar energy
2. Rural wireless comm.
3. Ubiquitous info access
4. Genetically modified crops
5. Rapid bioassays
6. Filters and catalysts
7. Targeted drug delivery
8. Cheap, autonomous housing
9. Green manufacturing
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h. Education & Literacy
i. Population, Demographics
j. Governance and Stability
h. Education and Literacy
i. Population, Demographics
j. Governance and Stability
9. Green manufacturing
10. Ubiquitous RFID
11. Hybrid vehicles
12. Pervasive sensors
13. Tissue engineering
14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods
15. Wearable computers
16. Quantum cryptography
Scientifically developing countries have some drivers but also many barriers
Scientifically Lagging Country: Pakistan
Barriers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
Drivers:a. Cost/Financing
b. Laws/Policies
c. Social Values, Politics
d. Infrastructure
e. Privacy Concerns
f. Resource Use, Env. Health
g. Investment in R&D
Top 16 Technology Applications
1. Cheap solar energy
2. Rural wireless comm.
3. Ubiquitous info access
4. Genetically modified crops
5. Rapid bioassays
6. Filters and catalysts
7. Targeted drug delivery
8. Cheap, autonomous housing
9.
GT2020, 7/05 21
h. Education & Literacy
i. Population & Demographics
j. Governance & Stability
Scientifically lagging countries have a large number of barriers and few drivers
h. Education & Literacy
i. Population & Demographics
j. Governance & Stability
9. Green manufacturing
10. Ubiquitous RFID
11. Hybrid vehicles
12. Pervasive sensors
13. Tissue engineering
14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods
15. Wearable computers
16. Quantum cryptography
Gap Between Scientifically Lagging and Scientifically Advanced Countries Is Enormous
Based on 16 Technology Applications Representative of General S&T Capacity
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Implications of Our Research for National Governments in Promoting S&T for Development
• Success in innovation requires S&T capacity building to integrate
with other areas of investment and growth (e.g., financial sector
reform, gender development, health, education)
• This research provides an approach to consider planning and
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• This research provides an approach to consider planning and
resourcing for S&T capacity building to achieve near- and long-
term goals in development
• Having metrics for drivers and barriers and the outputs and
outcomes of S&T capacity building sharpens focus on goals of
development and helps to track progress across sectors
The Global TechnologyThe Global Technology RevolutionRevolution
20202020
GT2020, 7/05 24
Richard Silberglitt, Philip S. Antón, David R. Howell, Anny WongRichard Silberglitt, Philip S. Antón, David R. Howell, Anny Wong
Illustrative Technology Applications for 2020
1. Cheap Solar Energy
2. Rural Wireless Communications
3. Ubiquitous Information Access
4. Genetically Modified Crops
5. Rapid Bioassays
6.
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6. Filters and Catalysts
7. Targeted Drug Delivery
8. Cheap Autonomous Housing
9. Green Manufacturing
10. Ubiquitous Radio Frequency Identification Tagging
Continue
11. Hybrid Vehicles
12. Pervasive Sensors
13. Tissue Engineering
14. Improved Diagnostic and Surgical Methods
15. Wearable Computers
16. Quantum Cryptography
GT2020, 7/05 26
16. Quantum Cryptography
17. Hands-free Computer Interface
18. In Silico Drug R&D
19. Smart Textiles
20. Resistant Textiles
Continue
21. Electronic Transactions
22. Genetic Screening
23. Genetically Modified Insects
24. Unconventional Transport
25. Commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
26. Drug Development from Screening
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26. Drug Development from Screening
27. Monitoring and Control for Disease Management
28. Enhanced Medical Recovery
29. Secure Data Transfer
30. Print-to-Order Books
Continue
31. Therapies based on Stem Cell R&D
32. Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Sensor Network in Cities
33. CBRN Sensors on Emergency Response Teams
34. Immunotherapy
35. Improved Treatments from Data Analysis
GT2020, 7/05 28
35. Improved Treatments from Data Analysis
36. Smart Systems
37. Hydrogen Vehicles
38. Implants for Tracking and Identification
39. Gene Therapy
40. Chip Implants for the Brain
Continue
41. Drugs Tailored to Genetics
42. Secure Video Monitoring
43. Biometrics as Sole Identification
44. Hospital Robotics
45. Military Nanotechnologies
46. Military Robotics
GT2020, 7/05 29
46. Military Robotics
47. Xenotransplantation
48. Artificial Muscles and Tissue
49. Genetically Modified Animals for R&D
50. High-Tech Terrorism
Continue
51. Memory Enhancing Drugs
52. Super Soldiers
53. Genetic Selection of Offspring
54. Proxy-bot
55. Quantum Computers
GT2020, 7/05 30
55. Quantum Computers
56. Robotic Scientist