Transcript
  • The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour MarketIlaria MaselliCEPS

  • In this presentationLabour demand and supply with respect to educationDemand and its driversSupplyVertical mismatch?Future risks

    Research question: are there too many or not enough skills?

  • Evolution of labour demandJob polarisation in EU27, 2000-2010.

    Low qualified jobsMedium skilled jobs

  • ISCO classificationLow skilled jobs = cleaners, labourers in construction, manufacturing and transport and food preparation assistants.Medium qualified jobs = plant and machine operators, electrical and electronic trades workers and craft and related trades workers.High profile jobs = managers, professionals, technicians

  • Evolution of labour demand Italyvs Belgium (2000-2010)

    Low qualified jobsMedium skilled jobsHigh skilled jobsHigh skilled jobsMedium skilled jobs

  • Labour demand: 3 theoriesSkill-biased technological changeRoutinisation hypothesisGlobalisation - offshoring

  • Labour demand

    Job polarisationOtherBG, DE, EL, ES, FR, IT, CY, HU, MT, NL, AT, PL, RO, SL, FI, SE, UKBE, CZ, DK, ET, IE, LV, LT, LX, PT, SK

  • Labour supply: educational expansionEU27, 2000-2010Low skilled active pop 25-64High skilled active pop 25-64Medium skilled active pop 25-64

  • Labour supply: educational expansion

  • Demand and Supply wrt SkillsEU27, 2000-2010

  • Demand and Supply wrt SkillsEU27, 2010-2020 (CEDEFOP projections)

  • Demand and Supply wrt Skills

  • Vertical mismatch: risksShortage of low skilled workers = Korean scenarioLow skilled unemploymentMiddle skilled displacementOverqualification of high skilledEquilibrium!

  • Vertical mismatch: risks

  • Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers? Employment rate of high skilled high everywhere (around 80%)

  • Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers? No evidence that employment rate of HS is lower in countries that expanded educ faster

  • Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers?

    Yes BUT increase in heterogeneity:

    For ex: returns from education more differentiated by subject

  • Vertical mismatch: risks

  • Low skilled jobsNo Korean scenario: lack of people to take DDD jobsIn some countries still more low skilled workers that low skilled jobs => risk of low skilled unemployment high despite educational expansion (EL, IT, PT, MT, DK)

  • Vertical mismatch: risks

  • Shrinking middleIn Germany has shrunk from 62% to 54% of the populationSame in Denmark: 31.5% to 28.6% of the population

  • Conclusions (1): EU vs countriesEU27 as a whole in equilibrium But cross-country differences ...high mobility would solve the problem (and Eurozone crisis in part also!)

    Some countries will continue to deal with low skilled unemployment (Southern + DK)

  • Conclusions (2): shrinking middleOthers will face a new problem: excess of middle skilled workers=> what will they do?- Compete for higher skilled jobs (if possible)- Compete for lower skilled onesInnovation is @ workcreative destruction (Schumpeter)

  • Conclusions (3): shrinking middle again!Shrinking middle = main looser:What are the Consequences? higher income inequalityOver-education Less job satisfaction? Sociological and political science problems to be explored. For example, concerning the financing of welfare?

  • Conclusions (4): what we may not catchWe need further research to understand the skills interplay:

    Ex: the definition of a graduate job is not frozen in time: what we consider a graduate job today, like a journalist, did not require tertiary education twenty years ago. The same applies to non-graduate jobs: with the help of technology some former graduate jobs have been de-skilled (accounting for example) and the quality of other low skilled jobs has been increased. (Elias and Purcell 2004)

  • Thanks for the attention

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