THE CHALLENGE
Planetary Stability
for Eugene City Club
May 2, 2014
Tom Bowerman
PolicyInteractive Researchwww.policyinteractive.org
1
Some findings draw from Oregon Values & Beliefs Project-198 Questions using three surveys spaced 2 weeks apart
-Diverse range of topics: Economy, Education, Healthcare, Environment, Public Safety, Transportation, etc.
This presentation of findings, observations and conclusions reflects the judgment of this presenter and not necessarily the views of the sponsoring organizations.
2
7%
10%
41%
53%
20%
30%
24%
9%
9%
7%
13%
9%
8%
63%
42%
8%
5%
9% 6% 15%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Climate change fromhuman causes is a hoax
and not occurring.
Climate change is veryunsettled in scientific
evidence.
Climate change isoccurring and in the long
term the impacts willprobably becatastrophic.
Climate change isoccurring from human
causes like burning fossilfuels.
Strongly Agree Lean toward Agree Undecided Lean toward Disagree Strongly Disagree Don’t knowEugene Random Sample N=300 Source: DHM Research, PI Research, November 2011
HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOREACH STATEMENT.
75% 15%
16% 78%
71%
4
World-view ItemsUsing A/B Forced-choice Style:
Which statement do you agree with more even if neither
represents your view exactly?(Ordering randomized & A/B item rotates)
5
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Statement A Statement B Don’t know
72%
21%
Statement A:
Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply
Statement B:
If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later
Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q32 n=29716
Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern0%
20%
40%
60%
80%72%
76%72%
64% 62%
72%
21% 18% 20%
28% 30%
21%
7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7%
Statement B: If climate change becomes a problem, we can deal with it later.
Statement A: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply.
Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)
S1-Q3277
S1-Q28 n=2971
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Statement A Statement B Don’t know
38%
53%
Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars
Statement B: We should invest more in public transit
Which statement comes closest to your view?
Tone Key:Light: Lean towardsDark: Feel strongly
8
38% 37% 39%45%
46%38%
53% 55% 53%48%
45%
53%
8% 8% 9%7% 9% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern
Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars
Statement B: We should invest more in public transit
Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)
S1-Q279
Economic growth will be more important than addressing climate change
Probability
5%
9%
13%
14%
33%
26%
0% 20% 40%
Don’tknow
Veryunlikely
Somewhatunlikely
Neutral
Somewhatlikely
Very likely
Desirability
5%
22%
18%
17%
17%
20%
0% 20% 40%
Don’t know
Strongly undesirable
Somewhat undesirable
Neutral
Somewhat desirable
Strongly desirable
S2-17
59% 37%
19%40%
11
3%
12%
10%
19%
28%
29%
0% 20% 40%
Don’t know
Strongly undesirable
Somewhat undesirable
Neutral
Somewhat desirable
Strongly desirable
(How desirable or undesirable?)
There should be stronger government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
S3-Q46
57%
22%
12
3%
16%
10%
20%
29%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Don’t know
Strongly undesirable
Somewhat undesirable
Neutral
Somewhat desirable $
Strongly desirable $$
(How desirable or undesirable; with $$ and $ cost implications)A carbon emission tax established to discourage greenhouse gas
emissions and used to invest in green jobs and technologies
S3-Q48
50%
26%
13
(How much Agree – Disagree with:) Science and human ingenuity will solve climate change with little need to change our way of life
4%
6%
13%
16%
25%
36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don’t know
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Neutral
Somewhat Disgree
Strongly Disgree
S3-47
61%
19%
14
16 Our country would be a better place if we all consumed less.
PI – Oregon Random Dial March 2008 n=400 moe 4.7%
36
51
63
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strong Agree Agree Disagree Strong Disagree
Political Party Ideology ComparisonCompare - Global Warming : Consume less
PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (% Combined Agreement of Sector)
Global Warming Concern 'Our Country Better Consume Less'
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
34
64
7680
Republican n=128 Democrat n=228
17
18 Cultural Ideology Comparison Christian Conservative & EnvironmentalistCompare Global Warming / Consume less
PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (expressed as % Agreement of Sector)
Global Warming Concern 'Our Country Better Consume Less'
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
45
67
7781
Ch. Conservative n=126 Environmental n=236
19
With roughly two-thirds of consumers saying they care, why is ethical
consumption so minimal and so rarely transformative?
- Dana O’Rourke, book review of Market for Virtue by David Vogle
23
ATTITUDE ADISSONANCE• Anxiety• Grief• Avoidance• Denial
BEHAVIOR B
X
CONSTRAINTS• Habits• Norms (conformity)• Self identity• Ideology (social)• Desires• Physical constraints
24
24
“It is naive to ask consumers to voluntarily downscale, and give up their desires without offering
them alternative dreams.”Tim Jackson, Sustainable Development Commission, U.K.
One Measure of “hopes and dreams”: Life Satisfaction
All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays, with 1 being not satisfied at all and 10 being
completely satisfied?
(annual Gallup World Survey and many others, normally on 1-10 scale)
24
Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Nation (normalized) & Oregon Compared
USA Oregon
$47580$42360
17.5(t)
9.7(t)
7.4 7.5
Income ($US) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction Index
Income: Per Capita/Yr. World Bank 2013 estimate (Atlas Method) Emissions: Tons CO2/capita EPA 2013 estimateLife Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation) PI 2008
2526
Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared
USA China Est. Sustainable Range
0
5
10
15
20
25
17.5 M Tons/
capita
7.7 M Tons/capita
2 – 5M Tons/capita
Me
tric
To
ns
CO
2 /
Ca
pit
a
Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster)Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on fileImport – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries
26
Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared – Consumption Based
USA China Est. Sustainable Range
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2 – 5M Tons/capita
Me
tric
To
ns
CO
2 /
Ca
pit
a
Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster)Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on fileImport – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries
19.7 t with
imports
5.2 t w.o
exports
28
29 Income/Emissions/Life SatisfactionFour Nations & Oregon Compared
USA Oregon Costa Rica New Zealand Sweden
$52,610
$44447
$8,820
$36900
$5612017.5(t)
9.7 (t)
1.6(t)
7.2(t)
5.5(t)
7.4 7.5
8.5
7.8 7.9
Income ($US) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction IndexIncome: Per Capita World Bank 2013estimate (Atlas Method), Oregon: US Bureau of Economic AnalysisEmissions: Tons CO2/capita 2012 World Bank & EPA for OregonLife Satisfaction:: Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation); Oregon PI Dec 09
31
Thinking it through: • Push for Policy
• Live simply by being thoughtful, using lessLess money (correlation money = emissions)Less houseLess travel (air travel emits carbon)
• Know your emissions: “Oregon Carbon Calculator”
• Think Globally, act locallyWorld citizenshipCommunity self reliance (&sharing economy)
29
35 (City of Eugene Sustainability Message Study N=790 Internet Survey, PI 2012)
Q4 Role of Consumption in Society
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Reduce consumption makelife less enjoyable
Consump. Necessary foreconomy, not bad thing
Reduce consump bad for longterm economy
Difficult to consume less,comparison to others
Lower emphasis onproduction & consumption
To much economic activitydepends on waste
Leads to consumer debt
Threatens Ecosystem
Disagree Agree
*
*
36
If thoughtful consumption means:
• Share items with others• Purchase second hand if possible• Purchase locally when possible• Carefully consider environmental impacts• Purchase only what you need
Will lead to the following? (Disagree-Agree 5 pt.)
37
Q6. “Thoughtful Consumption” could mean:
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Less excitement
Hurt economy
Work less
More time/learn new things
More time w/family & frends
Happier life
More financial security
Simpler life
Keep Oregon beautiful
Good example for others
Better life/future generations
Less waste
Str.Disagree LeanDisagree Neither LeanAgree Str.Agree
38
Eugene Message Frame StudyResults shown in order: Aggregated EWEB + City Employee (in bold font); EWEB
Residential Customer; City Employee. 5 Votes
summarized
Future Generations: We all have a responsibility to pass this place on to the next generation in at least as good a condition as we inherited it ourselves. Both our leaders and we our selves must do more to protect this planet for future generations.
872527345
Live by Example: Each and every one of us is a teacher by how we act. We need to set a good example for each other and our children by considerate and thoughtful behavior as it applies to care of the earth and equitable sharing of resources.
630401229
Oregon Pride: Oregon is a special place which has attracted people who care for the land and natural resources. We have long been a leader in green practices and we can leverage this reputation to set an example for other states. We need to continue to build on our leadership through smart environmental behavior.
412265147
Waste Not: Waste is a bad thing, and it is a by-product of thoughtless consumption. It is important to reduce the amount of waste we create by shifting behaviors to a more sustainable lifestyle and living more simply.
735480255
Do the Right Thing: I feel better about myself when I know I’m doing the right thing. Recycling, being careful to reuse things, and making purchases with thoughtfulness about consequences gives a sense of self-satisfaction.
616352264
39
Synthesized Message Frame CompetitionPI Feb 2012 N=692 - 5 votes per person, distribute any way, not required to use all votes
412
616
630
735
872
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Oregon Pride - environmentalleadership
Do the Right Thing - recyle, reuse,reduce
Live by Example - thoughtfulbehavior
Waste Not - sustainable lifestyle
Care for Future Generations -protect the planet
Taxes are necessary to pay for the common good
4%
3%
7%
40%
46%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don’t know
Disagree Strongly
Disagree Somewhat
Agree Somewhat
Agree Strongly
S2-1041
There has been some discussion in Oregon recently about the level of public services and the cost to taxpayers. Which of the following
statements is closest to how you feel? (S2-5)
22%
44%
22%
28%
31%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
We don’t spend enough on publicservices and we should increase
some taxes
We spend about the right amounton public services and taxes should
remain the same
We spend too much on publicservices and taxes should be
reduced
2002 2013
42
Do you believe a change is needed in Oregon’s tax system at this time?
10%
25%
66%
16%
21%
64%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Don’t know
No
Yes
2002 2013
S2-543
(How desirable or undesirable?)
Reduce government regulations
4%
11%
17%
25%
23%
19%
0% 20% 40%
Don’t know
Strongly undesirable
Somewhat undesirable
Neutral
Somewhat desirable
Strongly desirable
S3-Q23
42%
28%
44
(How desirable or undesirable?)
Reduce business taxes
4%
14%
21%
25%
21%
14%
0% 20% 40%
Don’t know
Strongly undesirable
Somewhatundesirable
Neutral
Somewhat desirable
Strongly desirable
S3-Q27
35%
35%
45
Probability
43%
28%
38%
42%
43%
42%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Southern
Eastern
Central
W. Valley
Metro
Total
Desirability
84%
80%
83%
84%
85%
84%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Southern
Eastern
Central
W. Valley
Metro
Total
Oregonians from diverse backgrounds will find common ground and work together to make progress addressing the
critical issues we face as a stateCombined Very/Somewhat Responses
S3-Q2146