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Technology & investments responses to market and regulatory developments
Baudouin KelecomJRC Conference 1st October
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
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0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
PercentGlobal Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 20001850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
HydroNuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040
3
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
PercentBy Region
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
Southeast Asia
India
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
44
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 20400
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
~500 Quads
Quadrillion BTUsDemand
What demand would be without efficiency gains
MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDP
-0.9%
-1.9%
Energy per GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPEnergy per GDP
Constant 2010 Level
DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
55
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
k TWhBy Sector
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
66
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind
OffshoreWind
Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Solar
$0/ton CO2
2011 Eurocents/KWh
Economic Choices for Europe ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030
Large PV, Thermal
Residential PV
*1 Euro = 1.4 USD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
77
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind
OffshoreWind
Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Solar
$60/ton CO2
2011 Eurocents/KWh
Economic Choices for Europe ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030
Large PV, Thermal
Residential PV
*1 Euro = 1.4 USD*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
88
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transport drives WW Demand Growth
PersonalMBDOE
CommercialMBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 20400
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOEDemand Changes
Distance per Vehicle
Mandated
Europe Personal Transportation Demand Falls
Fleet
Fuel Economy
Other
TransportationMBDOE
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Rail
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
10
Dieselisation of EU demand
Evolution of the middle distillate / gasoline demand ratio for refined products only
Source: CONCAWE
11
Biodiesel GHG’s* may be less positive than Ethanol
Source: IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) study for the EU
* GHG’s Green houses Gases** LUC Land Use Change
**
1212
Integrated set of solutions
mitigateemissions
expandsupply
increaseefficiency
TechnologyTechnology
1313
Expand supply: upstream technology
• Bitumen recovery • Shale Oil Recovery• Floating production storage,offloading vessel (FPSO)
• 4D Imaging• Directional drilling• Rapid Reservoir
Performance Prediction
• Unlocking Tight & Shale Gas• Large LNG Production• Advanced Hydrocarbon
Detection (R3MSM)
opportunities evaluation success
Breakthrough technologies help meet rising global energy demand and minimize environmental footprint
1414
Increase efficiency well to tank
crude recovery
crude transportation
crude refining to products
product storage & transportation
retail site
fuel vehicle
fuel use 85% GHGproduction of fuel 15% GHG
Cogeneration
Gasifier
X to Liquids
Carbon Sequestration
1515
Historical Overview Antwerp • 1953 Start-up of the Antwerp Refinery • 1956 Expansion • 1971 Commissioning of Rotterdam-Antwerp crude pipeline
Installation of Ethylene Terminal• 1976 Start-up of Modernized Refinery, • 1981 Major investment for Energy Conservation• 1984 Expansion of Ethylene Terminal • 1985 Revamp FCCU for higher conversion• 1991 Start-up Alkylation and Higher Olefins Plant• 1993 Start-up 45 MW Cogen unit: co-investment with Electrabel• 1997 Installation of VRU units• 2006 Capacity expansion to• 2008 Start-up new 130 MW Cogen• 2011 Start-up Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Unit
1616
New Cogen in 2009
130 MW of electricity= needs of 300,000 homes= production of 230 wind turbines
Steam and process heating
CO2 emissions reduced by 200,000 tonnes/yr= removing 90,000 cars from the roads
1717
New Diesel Desulphurization Unit in 2011
Produces ultra low sulphur diesel• The annual production of this lower
sulphur diesel in Antwerp will be equal to the annual consumption of 2 million diesel cars
1 million workhours in construction phase
Modular built
1818
Increase efficiency tank to wheel
On board reforming
Lithium battery films
crude recovery
crude transportation
crude refining to products
product storage & transportation
fuel vehicle
fuel use 85% GHGproduction of fuel 15% GHG
Advanced Biofuels
retail site
Combustion fundamentals
19
Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
Fuels for Advanced Combustion
Motivation for CONCAWE’s advanced combustion studies1. Understand fuel needs of future advanced combustion engines2. Explore whether efficient gasoline-fuelled engines could help correct the
European diesel/gasoline imbalance
Extensive test programme completed on bench engine and demo vehicle Diesel single-cylinder engine optimised for low temperature combustionEngine equipped with CLCC quite tolerant of a wide range of fuelsConclusion: a special fuel is NOT a requirement for advanced combustion diesel engines
Study results have been extensively published through CONCAWE Reports and technical papers
CONCAWE Reports and PublicationsPart 1: Impact of engine on HCCI combustion (Rpt 9/10 & SAE 2008-01-2405)Part 2: Impact of fuels on HCCI combustion (Rpt 10/10 & SAE 2008-01-2404)Part 3: Advanced combustion in a demonstrator vehicle
Results from the demo vehicle study (Part 3) presented at TAE Esslingen (01/2011) and AEC-MOU Working Group on HCCI (09/2010 and 09/2011)
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
Demo Vehicle Study: Six Fuels Selected
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Tota
l Aro
mat
ics
(% m
/m)
Derived Cetane Number (DCN)
DieselKeroseneGasoline-likeDieselineNaphtha
See SAE 2008-01-2404 and -2405 for bench engine results on other fuels
RefineryNaphtha 1
EN590BaselineDiesel
PRF25
Kerosene
RefineryNaphtha 2
‘Dieseline’
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
Demo Vehicle: Fuels for Advanced Combustion
Fuel flexibility achieved through Closed Loop Combustion Control of injection timing and sophisticated engine control system
Vehicle was able to operate on diesel and other fuels without recalibrationEfficiency matched or exceeded current diesel capabilityEuro 6 NOx limit could be met engine-out without catalyst for four fuels PM varied between fuels but was treatable by DPFA good oxycat would be needed to reduce HC and CO emissions
100
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180
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
CO
2 [g
/km
]
NOx [g/km]
Baseline Diesel1
Kerosene
PRF 25
'Dieseline1'
Refinery Naphtha 1
Refinery Naphtha 2
145g CO2/km target
Euro 6 NOxLimit
159g CO2/km forreference 2.2L vehicle
CO2 and NOx emissions over the NEDC measured on FEV’s advanced combustion vehicle without NOx aftertreatment
Duplicate tests on same fuel are shown
Diesel engine-based vehicle runs on a wide range of fuels, but higher octane gasoline presented problems achieving NOx and CO2 targets
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Implications summaryGlobal energy demand will increase by 30%Energy savings through 2040 will be 3 times the projected energy growth Europe energy consumption in transport will be essentially flatWorld fuels and especially European fuels are moving towards DieselAn engine with diesel-like efficiency operating on gasoline-range fuel would offer substantive WTW (Well to Wheel) benefits All economic energy sources should be pursued towards 2040
Science, WTW cost/benefit analyses should inform legislative initiativesWhen countries legislate GHG, economy-wide, predictable GHG costs shape business plans and investmentsMarket prices including CO2 costs allocate resources most efficiently to help ensure reliable, affordable energy
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Annexes
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CO2 Abatement Economic in Europe
Europe Cost of CO2 Avoidance
Source: JEC (2007), CARB (March 2009), EIA AEO
-100
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100
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300
400
€/Ton
Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear
Wind
Coal + CCS
*Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal
Gas + CCS
vs. New Coal
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
-100
0
100
200
300
400
€/TonEurope Cost of CO2 Avoidance
Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear
Wind
Coal + CCS
Conventional Engine Improvements
*Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal
Full Hybrids
2nd Gen Ethanol
1st Gen Ethanol
PHVsFuel Cells
Start-Stop Hybrids
Gas + CCS
CNG
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
vs. Existing Light Duty Vehicles
vs. New Coal
2525
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1990 2015 20400
2
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1990 2015 20400
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8
1990 2015 2040
k TWh
Gas
NuclearCoal
Wind
Other Renewables
Gas w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
Electricity Supply Varies Globally
United Statesk TWh
China
Oil
k TWhEurope
* Generation by Type
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2626
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400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
100
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600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases
BCFDProduction by Type
UnconventionalConventional
BCFDDemand by Region
North America
Middle East
AP Non OECD
Rest of OECD
Russia/Caspian
Rest of Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
Demo Vehicle Study: Objectives and Fuel Properties
Objectives:Meet Euro 6+ NOx emissions levels by using high levels of cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) and without using additional NOx aftertreatment
Diesel Demonstrator Vehicle over the regulatory New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)Similar hardware to that used in the single-cylinder engine studyCO2 and regulated emissions, with focus on engine-out NOx & PM
Achieving study objective required more air/fuel pre-mixing and lower combustion temperatures
Study the impact of fuel properties on advanced diesel combustion performance1, including the effects of:
Ignition Quality: by varying Derived Cetane Number (DCN)Volatility: by testing diesel, kerosene, & naphtha fuelsComposition: by varying the Total Aromatics Content
1) Source: CONCAWE Report 4/08 (2008)
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
Demo Vehicle: FEV’s High Efficiency Combustion System
Properties Demonstrator VehicleStroke 88.3 mm
Bore Diameter 75 mmSwept Volume 1560 cm³
Compression Ratio 15Valves per Cylinder 4
Valve Lift 8 mmCylinder Peak Pressure 200 bar
Fuel Injection System Bosch PiezoCommon Rail System
Maximum Injection Pressure 2000 barNozzle 8 x 153°
Nozzle Hole Diameter 109 µmHydraulic Flow Rate 310 cm³ / 30 seconds
Charge Air Cooling Level Valeo Euro 6 System
Combustion ControlConstant Center of Combustion
for all fuels by means ofClosed Loop Combustion Control
Glow Plug BERU Pressure Sensor Glow PlugEGR System High Pressure & Low Pressure Loops
Aftertreatment Diesel Particulate Filter & OxycatEmission Level Euro 6 Vehicle Weight 1590 kg
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
How to Fuel the Advanced Combustion Vehicle?
Both options would require a new fuel grade and vehicle modifications
Blending Pumpat Service Station?
Diesel or Gasoline Fuelor a ‘Dieseline’ Blend
Gasoline & DieselDelivered to Station
RefinerySeparate Pump
at Service Station?
Low Cetane Fuel:Fossil or BTL Naphtha
New ProductDelivered to Station
Blending Pumpat Service Station?
Diesel or Gasoline Fuelor a ‘Dieseline’ Blend
Gasoline & DieselDelivered to Station
RefinerySeparate Pump
at Service Station?
Low Cetane Fuel:Fossil or BTL Naphtha
New ProductDelivered to Station