TaiwanSSHACLevel3StudyCurrentGMCLogicTreeandHazardFeedback
TaiwanSSHACLevel3PSHAStudyWorkshop#3,June19-23,2017
Taipei,Taiwan
PTINorman Abrahamson
Outline
n Basecasen Hazardcurvesanddeaggregation(PGA,2s)n CurrentGMC LogicTreen GMCSensitivity
– Tornadoplot– ForAdjustedModels- median
2
GMCCrustalbasecaseSpectralFrequency
MedianGMPE
SingleStationSigmaModel
AdditionalEpistemicUncertainty
PGA
SA[5.0Hz]
SA[0.5Hz]
ASK14(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.2)
BSSA14
CB14
CY14
I14
(1.0)SWUS,CEN
(1.0)0.0
(1.0)
Formofln(SA)
Distribution
3
Traditionalnormal
GMCSubduction basecaseSpectralFrequency
AdditionalEpistemicUncertainty
PGA
SA[5.0Hz]
SA[0.5Hz]
(0.5)
(0.5)
BCH
LL08
(1.0)0.0
MedianGMPE
4
(1.0)BCH, CEN
(1.0)
Traditionalnormal
SingleStationSigmaModel
Formofln(SA)
Distribution
HAZARDDEAGGREGATION
Becausethesourcesisunderworking,theSSCteamsuggestedthatweusedthesourcessameasWS#2.
5
NPP1- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
6
PGA 2.0s
Period Source M R
PGA
Shanchiao (42%) 6.6-7.4 0-10
Intraslab (31%) 7.4-8.0 70-100
Interface(15%) 8.0-8.2 60-80
2s
Intraslab (52%) 7.5-8.2 150-230
Interface(30%) 8.4-9.0 60-80
Shanchiao (17%) 7.0-7.4 0-10
NPP2- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
7
PGA 2.0s
Period Source M R
PGAShanchiao (62%) 6.4-7.4 0-10
STII(20%) 6.4-7.4 0-10
2s
Shanchiao (38%) 7.0-7.4 0-10
Intraslab (24%) 7.5-8.2 150-230
Interface(22%) 8.4-9.0 50-80
STII(16%) 7.0-7.4 0-10
NPP3- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
8
PGA 2.0s
Period Source M R
PGAInterface(53%) 8-8.8 10-20
Hengchun (43%) 6.4-7.2 0-10
2sInterface(46%) 8-8.8 10-20
Hengchun (48%) 6.6-7.6 0-10
NPP4- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
9
PGA 2.0s
Period Source M R
PGA
Intraslab (37%) 7.5-8.0 70-100
Interface(32%) 8.2-9.0 40-70
Shallowarea(26%) 5-7 0-20
2sInterface(61%) 8-9 40-60
Intraslab (33%) 7.5-8.2 150-230
CURRENTGMC LOGICTREE
10
GMCSensitivityresults– Crustal– PGA(WM#3)
11
Node GMPEsusedinSensitivityGMRatiogreater than10%
NPP1 NPP2 NPP3 NPP4
1 GMPEforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
2 Additional EpistemicUncertaintyforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
3 SigmaSS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
4 FormofDistribution ofln(SA)
5 Splayfault(only forNPP3)
6 Deepevents
7 Dipimplementationforlistric fault(only forNPP2)
8 Directivitymodel (only forperiodlargerthan0.5sec)
9 StyleofFaulting ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
10 Hanging-wallEffect ✔ ✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
GMCSensitivityresults– Crustal– 2sec(WM#3)
12
Node GMPEsusedinSensitivityGMRatiogreater than10%
NPP1 NPP2 NPP3 NPP4
1 GMPEforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
2 Additional EpistemicUncertaintyforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
3 SigmaSS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
4 FormofDistribution ofln(SA)
5 Splayfault(only forNPP3)
6 Deepevents
7 Dipimplementationforlistric fault(only forNPP2)
8 Directivitymodel
9 StyleofFaulting ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
10 Hanging-wallEffect ✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
LogicTreeoftheMedianforCrustalSource
13
Model 1
...
Model 2
...
Model ...
...
Model 18
...
Median forVertical DipSS Faults
Mag. Dep.
...
Mag. Indep.
...
SOFFactors - I
Lower
0.2
Center
0.6
Upper
0.2
SOFFactors - II
Lower
0.2
Center
0.6
Upper
0.2
SOFFactors - II
Model 1
0.2
Model 2
0.2
Model 3
0.2
Model 4
0.2
Model 5
0.2
HWFactor
Model 1
1.0
Listric FaultFactor
Logic Tree of the Median for Crustal Source
17
14
LogicTreeoftheSigmaSS forCrustalSource
Global...
Taiwan...
TauModel-I
Mag. Dep.1.0
TauModel-II
Mag. Dep....
Mag. Indep....
TauModel-II
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
TauModel-III
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
TauModel-III
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
TauModel-III
Taiwan1.0
PhiSSModel-I
Mag. Dep....
Mag. Indep....
PhiSSModel-II
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
PhiSSModel-III
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
PhiSSModel-III
Model 11.0
ln(Sa)Distribution
Logic Tree for the SigmaSS for Crustal Sources
Wechoosetotestsensitivity
GMCSensitivityresults– Subduction – PGA
15
Node GMPEsusedinSensitivityGMRatiogreater than10%
NPP1 NPP2 NPP3 NPP4
1 GMPEforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔
2 Additional EpistemicUncertaintyforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
3 SigmaSS
4 FormofDistribution ofln(SA)
5 Depthscalingforintraslab
6 LargeMagscalingforintraslab ✔
7 EdgeEffectforinterface
✔
✔
✔
GMCSensitivityresults– Subduction – 2sec
16
Node GMPEsusedinSensitivityGMRatiogreater than10%
NPP1 NPP2 NPP3 NPP4
1 GMPEforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
2 Additional EpistemicUncertaintyforMedian ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
3 SigmaSS
4 FormofDistribution ofln(SA)
5 Depthscalingforintraslab
6 LargeMagscalingforintraslab
7 EdgeEffectforinterface
✔
✔
✔
17
LogicTreeoftheMedianforSubductionSource
Model 1
...
Model 2
...
Model ...
...
Model 18
...
Median
Model 1
1.0
Edge Effectfor Interface
Logic Tree of the Median for Subduction Source
17
18
LogicTreeoftheSigmaSS forSubductionSource
Global...
Taiwan...
TauModel-I
Mag. Indep.1.0
TauModel-II
Mag. Dep....
Mag. Indep....
TauModel-II
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
TauModel-III
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
TauModel-III
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
TauModel-III
Taiwan1.0
PhiSSModel-I
Mag. Dep....
Mag. Indep....
PhiSSModel-II
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
PhiSSModel-III
Lower0.2Center0.6Upper0.2
PhiSSModel-III
Model 11.0
ln(Sa)Distribution
Logic Tree for the SigmaSS for Subduction Sources
Wechoosetotestsensitivity
CRUSTALGMCSENSITIVITY
19
GMC—Crustal Sensitivity case(WS#3)MedianGMPE
EpistemicNode SOFNode
(1.0)
(1.0)
SWUSHW1
HWEffectNode
SpectralFrequency
PGA
SA[5.0Hz]
SA[0.5Hz] SWUSHW5
NoSOFeffect
(1.0)
NoHWeffect
Basecase5 models
ASB14
NewTaiwanmodelChao17
(1.0)0.0
Formofln(SA)
Distribution
(1.0)
(1.0)
SWUS,CEN(1.0)
PhiSSlow+Taulow(1.0)
PhiSSlow+Taumed(1.0)
PhiSSlow+TauHigh(1.0)
PhiSSmed+Taulow(1.0)
PhiSSmed+Taumed(1.0)
PhiSSmed+TauHigh(1.0)
PhiSSHigh+Taulow(1.0)
PhiSSHigh+Taumed(1.0)
PhiSSHigh+TauHigh(1.0)
SingleStationSigmaModel
normal
mixture
Published
MagDep.Low
MagDep.Cen
MagDep.High
MagInDep.Low
MagInDep.Cen
MagInDep.High
7Adjustedmodels
BI14
Node1:CrustalGMPEforMedianRegion Branch GMPEsusedinSensitivity
Global model(Basecase)
12345
ASK14(Abrahamson, etal.,2014)BSSA14(Boore etal.,2014)CB14(CampbellandBozorgnia,2014)CY14(Chiou andYoungs,2014)I14(Idriss,2014)
Europe(SIGMAprojectmodels)
67
ASB14(Akkaretal.,2014)BI14(Bindietal.,2014)
Adjustedmodel 891011121314
ASK14_C01BSSA14_C01CB14_C01CY14_C01I14_C01ASB14_C01BI14_C01
Taiwannewmodel 15 Chao17
21
Node2:StyleofFaulting
22
Branch GMPEs Value
1 Basecase5models Published
2 Basecase5models NoSoF
3 Basecase5models Magnitudedependent Center
4 Basecase5models Magnitudedependent High
5 Basecase5models Magnitudedependent Low
6 Basecase5models Magnitudeindependent Center
7 Basecase5models Magnitudeindependent High
8 Basecase5models Magnitudeindependent Low
Node3:Hanging-walleffect
Branch GMPEs Value
1 Basecase5models Published
1 Basecase5models NoHanging-wall effect
2 Basecase5models SWUSHWModel1
3 Basecase5models SWUSHWModel5
23
Node4:CrustalSigmaSS
n Usethe3TaiwanMagnitudeIndependent Phi_SSmodelswiththe3GlobalMagnitudedependenttaumodels(9total).
24
Branch Value
123
TaiwanphiSS low&globaltaulowTaiwanphiSS low&globaltaumedTaiwanphiSS low&globaltauhigh
456
TaiwanphiSS med&global taulowTaiwanphiSS med&global taumedTaiwanphiSS med&global tauhigh
789
TaiwanphiSS high&global taulowTaiwanphiSS high&global taumedTaiwanphiSS high&global tauhigh
Node5:CrustalFormofDistributionofln(SA)
25
Branch Value
1 NormalDistribution
2 SWUSMixtureModel
26
27
SUBDUCTIONGMCSENSITIVITY
28
GMC—Subduction Sensitivity case(WS#3)
29
SpectralFrequency
PGA
SA[5.0Hz]
SA[0.5Hz]
MedianGMPE
EpistemicNode
(1.0)0.0
Basecase2 models
NewTaiwanmodelChao17
AdjustedmodelsAGA16_C04
ZH06
Formofln(SA)
Distribution
(1.0)
(1.0)
SWUS,CEN(1.0)
PhiSSlow+Taulow(1.0)
PhiSSlow+Taumed(1.0)
PhiSSlow+TauHigh(1.0)
PhiSSmed+Taulow(1.0)
PhiSSmed+Taumed(1.0)
PhiSSmed+TauHigh(1.0)
PhiSSHigh+Taulow(1.0)
PhiSSHigh+Taumed(1.0)
PhiSSHigh+TauHigh(1.0)
SingleStationSigmaModel
normal
mixture
Node1:SubductionGMPEforMedianRegion Branch GMPEsusedinSensitivity
Global 1 BCH(BCHydro,2016)
Taiwan 2 LL08(LinandLee,2008)
Japan 3 ZH06(Zhaoetal.,2006)
Taiwannewmodel 4 Chao17
Adjusted model 5 AGA16_C04
30
Node2:Subduction SigmaSS
n Usethe3TaiwanMagnitudeIndependent Phi_SSmodelswiththe3GlobalMagnitudeindependenttaumodels(9total).
31
Branch Value
123
TaiwanphiSS low&globaltaulowTaiwanphiSS low&globaltaumedTaiwanphiSS low&globaltauhigh
456
TaiwanphiSS med&global taulowTaiwanphiSS med&global taumedTaiwanphiSS med&global tauhigh
789
TaiwanphiSS high&global taulowTaiwanphiSS high&global taumedTaiwanphiSS high&global tauhigh
Node3:Subduction FormofDistributionofln(SA)
32
Branch Value
1 NormalDistribution
2 SWUSMixtureModel
33
34
GMCSENSITIVITYRESULTSForAdjustedModels- median
35
0.5
LL08
BCH
ZH06
Chao17
AGA16C01
NPP1
36
0.5
ASK14CY14CB14BSSA14I14ASB14BI14ASB14.C01BI14.C01ASK14.C01CY14.C01BSSA14.C01I14.C01CB14.C01Chao17
PGA
2sec
PGA
2sec
Crustal
Subduction2
2
1
1
Upper:Originalmodels
Lower:Adjustedmodels
new
new
0.5
LL08
BCH
ZH06
Chao17
AGA16C01
NPP2
37
0.5
ASK14CY14CB14BSSA14I14ASB14BI14ASB14.C01BI14.C01ASK14.C01CY14.C01BSSA14.C01I14.C01CB14.C01Chao17
PGA
2sec
PGA
2sec
Crustal
Subduction2
2
1
1
0.5
LL08
BCH
ZH06
Chao17
AGA16C01
NPP3
38
0.5
ASK14CY14CB14BSSA14I14ASB14BI14ASB14.C01BI14.C01ASK14.C01CY14.C01BSSA14.C01I14.C01CB14.C01Chao17
PGA
2sec
PGA
2sec
Crustal
Subduction2
2
1
1
0.5
LL08
BCH
ZH06
Chao17
AGA16C01
NPP4
39
0.5
ASK14CY14CB14BSSA14I14ASB14BI14ASB14.C01BI14.C01ASK14.C01CY14.C01BSSA14.C01I14.C01CB14.C01Chao17
PGA
2sec
PGA
2sec
Crustal
Subduction2
2
1
1
40
Thankyou!
BACKUP
41
Interface,plotfordistancescalingZtor =depth=0km,Mag=8.4
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Interface,plotfordistancescalingZtor =depth=20km,Mag=8.4
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Interface,plotfordistancescalingZtor =depth=50km,Mag=8.4
44
Interface,plotfordistancescalingZtor =2,depth=20km,Mag=8.4
45
NPP1- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
46
PGA 0.2s 2.0s
NPP2- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
47
PGA 0.2s 2.0s
NPP3- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
48
PGA 0.2s 2.0s
NPP4- PGA- 5Hz– 0.5Hz
49
PGA 0.2s 2.0s
GMCSensitivitycases– Crustal
50
Node SensitivityCase
1 GMPEforMedian
DonebeforeWM#3
2 Additional EpistemicUncertaintyforMedian
3 SigmaSS
4 FormofDistribution ofln(SA)
5 Splayfault
6 Deepevents
7 Dipimplementation forlistric fault
8 Directivitymodel
9 StyleofFaulting
10 Hanging-wallEffect
GMCSensitivitycases– Subduction
51
Node SensitivityCase
1 GMPEforMedian
DonebeforeWM#3
2 Additional EpistemicUncertaintyforMedian
3 SigmaSS
4 FormofDistribution ofln(SA)
5 Depthscalingforintraslab
6 LargeMagscalingforintraslab
7 EdgeEffectforinterface
52
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54
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