Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Sustainable Cities 2030 - 2050 Pictures of the Future: Trends and Scenarios acatech CiSTUP symposium Bangalore April 25, 2012 V S Mani Siemens Information Systems Ltd.
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Committed to profit and growth
Revenue by Sector
Revenue and employees
Revenue by Region
Key figures
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
500
400
300
200
100
2000
Employees in thousands
1986 1990 1995 FY 2011
Revenue in millions of euros
Healthcare
€12.5 billion
Energy
€27.6 billion
45%
33%
16% Industry €32.9 billion
Other
Total revenue of Sectors and Cross-Sector Businesses
17%
43% 37% 26%
21%
Based on cluster location
15%
40%
18%
America
Germany
Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle East (excl. Germany)
Asia, Australia
19% 15%
38% 28%
Continuing operations (in millions of euros) FY2010 FY2011
New orders 74,055 85,582 Revenue 68,978 73,515 Income 5,974 9,242 Free cash flow 7,043 5,885 Employees 336,000 360,000
As of September 30, 2011
April 2012 Page 2 V S Mani
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Key R&D figures
R&D spending in percent of revenue
2009
5.1%
2010
5.2%
2011
5.3%
R&D spending: €3.925 billion in fiscal 2011, or 5.3% of revenue
27,800 R&D employees worldwide Roughly 17,000 software engineers 160 R&D locations in roughly
30 countries around the world 8,600 inventions in fiscal 2011 53,300 patents granted
2009
4.9%
2009
4.7%
Focus on sustainability
CO2 abatement at customers
(in € billions)
(in millions of tons)
2014 (target) 2010 2009
40
27.6 26.8
2010 2009
267 214
~40% of total revenue
Revenue from environmental portfolio
2011
317 …roughly equal to 1% of global CO2 emissions in 2010
2011
29.9
Innovation is our lifeblood
April 2012 V S Mani Page 3
21st most innovative company of 2012
Sector Leader for 4th year in a row.
World’s 3rd best green brand
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Four megatrends
Urbanization World's population in cities : 2007: 50 % 2050: 70% 3.4 billion 5.2 billion Contribution to world GDP 600 cities (22% population): 2007: 51% 2025: 60%1
Move to cities: ~ 70 million/year
Climate Change Cities consume/produce 75% of the world’s energy 60% of all drinking water 80% of all greenhouse gases Climate change strongly
linked to urbanization
Demographic Change
Globalization
Population of 65+ old people: 2011: 550 mn 2050:1,500 mn Need for institutions for health
and elder care
Annual GDP growth till 2020: India 8.6%, China 8.1%, USA ~3%, Ger. 1.7%2 Emerging markets offer
significant opportunities and also challenges
April 2012 Page 4 V S Mani
Cities are shaping our future!
1. McKinsey 2007, 2. IHS Global Insight 2011
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
City trends overview Framework for scenarios
273 Trends imp. for cities
Healthcare & Well-being
Aging society Nano-/Bio-/Gentech
Energy
Climate change energy demand / energy independence
Work & Leisure
Remote work places 24x7 working life stress levels Virtual technologies
Quality of life Social
Structures
migration Pervasion of ICT technologies Individualization/ flexibility
Transportation & Logistics
traffic volume/ congestion Regulation changes Traffic/mobility pattern
Water
global water stress
Resources & Recycling
Lack of landfill space Scarcity of agricultural land
Safety & Security
Cyber crime Ubiquitous sensor networks
Admin., Finance & Participation
partnerships ICT as key enabler/ driver
Strategy Plg. & Identity
complexity demand for new living spaces/land
Architecture & Plg./Mgmt.
ICT/building automation Laws/incentives for energy efficiency
Information & Comm. Tech.
penetration of IT Sensor pervasion Digital natives
12 Trend Clusters
Environment
Management and development
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
2050 Most of the power from renewable energy /
CO2-free sources
Power corridors with very low transmission losses through new technologies
More decentralized energy
Integration of energy grid with mobility concept and with demand side management of buildings
Highly resilient electrical infrastructure in case of failure based on smart grid
Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Energy
April 2012 Page 6 V S Mani
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2050 New mobility concepts will improve capacity
and flexibility of transportation infrastructure (autonomous, zero-accident transport capsules, zero pollution, convoy-configuration, 3D-bus).
Integrated intelligent infrastructure and traffic management system using real-time data and forecast s to optimize.
Always-on services, dematerialization and decentralization will reduce individual traffic
Intermodal, seamless and demand-oriented mobility as a preferred service with "zero effort“ traveling
Efficient hub concepts e.g. mega hubs and consolidation centers: intelligent, multi-purpose infrastructure
Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Transportation & Logistics
April 2012 Page 7 V S Mani
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2050 Global migration leads to social and cultural
diversity in urban areas.
A structural shift of economic power is based on rising wealth, better education and living standards of middle classes, especially in Asia.
Down ageing: live long - stay young
Virtual/ICT technologies and highly flexible lifestyle will lead to “Access Society” influencing human values and traditions.
Successful vertical democracy and appreciated social engagement raising communities / cooperative individualism creates new communities
Flexible life style and planning
Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Social Structures & Values
April 2012 Page 8 V S Mani
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2050 CO2-free housing-standard will be mandatory for
all new buildings.
Building clusters with multi-level infrastructure provide living space, work- and leisure opportunities at close distance.
Scalability is achieved via decentralized infrastructures (waste, water, energy).
New shapes and materials result in green and highly efficient building constructions optimized for regional climate and environment.
Quality of life is improved by building (cluster) construction (e.g. daylight concepts), green layers (in/out/betwen buildings)
Improved mobility concepts inside of buildings and between buildings/building clusters.
Recycling of building and city constructions (lifecycle)
Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Architecture & Urban Planning/Management
April 2012 Page 9 V S Mani
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Decentralized City
Me X- Lifestyle
Seamless Mobility
Sensible City
City in environmental balance
Sub-scenarios
Sustainable City Comprehensive Scenario 2030 - 2050
April 2012 Page 10 V S Mani
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Scenario 2030 – 2050 City in Environmental Balance
Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation
Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings
Implementation of 3R-water systems and rain water collection facilities
Building as a tree
Harmonization of citizens and environment: Common understanding for environmental impacts: green mindset, “me-green” footprint
New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable
Building automation for optimized energy management
April 2012 Page 11 V S Mani
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Scenario 2030 – 2050 City in Environmental Balance
Energy harvesting e.g. body heat, step pressure
Integrated solar cells
Integrated wind wheels on building roofs, balconies, parking areas,…
Integrated river turbines
Use of waste water heat for building heating
International water institution and water recycling
Waste to power/ new logistic concepts in building/city districts
CO2 reduction by synthetic photosynthesis Methanol/H2
Building automation improves energy efficiency
Integrated phase change materials optimize heat exchange
Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation
Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings
Implementation of R³-water systems and rain water collection facilities
Building as a tree
Citizens in harmony with the environment: Common view of environmental impact - green mindset
New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable
Building automation for optimized energy management
April 2012 Page 12 V S Mani
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Energy Efficiency Vision
Passive climate by thermal insulation
Natural light supported by high efficient artificial light / OLED
Solar energy on roof and facade
Energy storage
Part of smart grid
Prism windows guiding light depending on the
sun’s position Phase change
material regulating room climate
Cars buffer energy
Heat exchanged with the earth
April 2012 Page 13 V S Mani
Buildings consume ~40% of worldwide energy and produce 21% of all CO2 emissions. Saving potential: 40%
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Innovative, sustainable and energy efficient solutions for urban spaces
April 2012 V S Mani Page 14
We have an unmatched portfolio of solutions for cities
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Toll System: intelligent video systems that traffic volume by 20% street congestion by 26% CO2 emissions by50,000 tons/yr cars on streets by 60,000
Solutions for the city of London
April 2012 V S Mani Page 15
Smart Grid: Siemens is working on a power distribution concept to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% by 2020
Heathrow Express: Siemens Desiro trains travel time from 50 to 15 min Carry 16,000 passengers/day
London Array offshore wind farm: World’s largest offshore wind farm 175 wind turbines produce 630 MW Energy for ~750,000 households CO2 emissions by 1.9 mn tons/yr
Electric mobility: London's goal is to have 1,300 public charging stations in operation across the entire city by 2013 We're supplying software solutions and related services
Hybrid buses: combination of diesel-electric engines and energy storage systems fuel consumption by 40% emissions by 40%
We have an unmatched portfolio of solutions for cities
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Building Management Solutions Effective Intelligent Energy Management …
Energy consumption in buildings Siemens Headquarters Mumbai
22% Energy consumption
38% Energy Costs
1.4 years ROI
No BMS
BMS with energy monitoring
BMS without energy monitoring
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Time
BMS with efficiency measures
… can result in significant savings even in old buildings!
April 2012 Page 16 V S Mani
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Effective Transportation Solutions 3-Phase Propulsion Systems …
Suburban trains of Mumbai
30% Energy consumption
… superior technology delivers greater benefits!
40% CO2 level in coach (better ventilation)
Improved Ride comfort
Increased Speed
April 2012 Page 17 V S Mani
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Energy Distribution Solutions DMS system for Maharashtra R-APDRP program
Challenges Distribution Management System
Secure network control and current information
Easy scheduled switching
Easy fault location/isolation and service restoration Better utilization of network capacity
Better reliability and quality
Solution
T&D losses
Dependency on sub-station staff
Poor quality of service to the consumers
Poor integration between network operations and IT systems
SCADA and DMS system at control rooms
RTUs at substations and FRTUs at RMUs
Communication backbone
Data Recovery Center
April 2012 Page 18 V S Mani
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V S Mani Marketing Corporate Development Center India Siemens Information Systems Ltd. Phone: +91 80 3313 4366 E-Mail: [email protected]
Questions?
Visit us at the Indo-German Urban Mela
June 22 – July 1, 2012
Palace Grounds, Bangalore
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Definition of sustainable city
April 2012 V S Mani Page 20
The concept of sustainable development is an evolving, debatable term. There is no one single definition. As an example, the definition for sustainable urban development that was agreed on in the preparatory meetings for the URBAN21 Conference (Berlin, July 2000) is referred to in the following: "Improving the quality of life in a city, including ecological, cultural, political, institutional, social and economic components without leaving a burden on the future generations. A burden which is the result of a reduced natural capital and an excessive local debt. Our aim is that the flow principle, that is based on an equilibrium of material and energy and also financial input/output, plays a crucial role in all future decisions upon the development of urban areas.“ Reference: http://archive.rec.org/REC/Programs/SustainableCities/what.html
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Thank You!
Any Questions?
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Moore s Law: Computing Power goes low cost commodity ubiquituous … a universal enabler
Data - Information - Knowledge:
universal access to information
tremendous cost decrease
ubiquitous production
Main enabler for the digital society
Megatrends:
Urbanisation Demografic change Climate change
Specific demand side trends
Global Trends:
Globalisation of supply chains
Interdependency of politics and trade, …
“Market Pull” “Technology Push”
Alignment and goal orientation
Innovation engine
Specific technology trends
Looking into the future Big challenges ahead
April 2012 V S Mani Page 22
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Urbanization
April 2012 V S Mani Page 23
More people are being born, live in or are moving to cities
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The urban millennium
April 2012 V S Mani Page 24
Source: McKinsey 2007
Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.
Solutions for the city of London
April 2012 V S Mani Page 25
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Sustainability is top of mind for city administrators
April 2012 V S Mani Page 26
Global competitiveness
Clean environment
Quality of life
Technologies
Challenges
Population
Economic power