Sustainability: a long-term journey
René Kemp
MERIT & DRIFT
On sustainability Sustainability is about protection and creation Requirements of sustainability are multiple and
interconnected Pursuit of sustainability hinges on integration Core requirements and general rules must be
accompanied by context-specific elaborations: Diversity is necessary Surprise is inevitable Transparency and public engagement are key
characteristics of decision making for sustainability
Explicit rules and processes are needed for decisions about trade-offs and compromises
The end is open
Key elements of SD strategy
policy integration common objectives, criteria, trade-off
rules and indicators information and incentives for practical
implementation programmes for system innovation (with
transition policies)(Kemp, Gibson and Parto, 2004)
Innovation is part of SD-- this is accepted by the European Commission
The Commission emphasises the role of policy at the EU scale, to generate major public and private investments in crucial sustainability-related areas – including the development and application of new, “environmentally-friendly” technologies – and more broadly to be catalyst for “institutional reform”, changes in corporate and consumer behaviour, and “innovative solutions” that create new, high-quality jobs (EC 2001b:2-3).
But innovation is different thingsPolicy innovationTechnological innovationNew sociotechnical systemsthat are interrelated
SD is a non-ending process of adaptive change involving multiple transitions
Policy should be concerned with “managing” transitions
A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)
Transitions are multi-level processes
Take off
Breakthrough
Predevelopment
Stabilisation
Time
Magnitude of societal change
The Dutch model of Transition management
…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and
visions… in which different visions and routes are explored:
system innovation and optimisation
Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic
Political margins for
change
State of development of solutions
Societal goals
Sustainability visions
Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)
Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)
Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.
... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and control policies
2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’
2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic
2003 2 à 3 %
‘Transition Paths’
C. Biofuels
B. Pyrolysis
A. Gasification
ExpvEO
SExp
Exp EOS: experiments : R&D
No definitive choice is made as to technological means
Different routes are investigated Decisions are made in an interative way Support is temporary Each option has to proof its worth Technology choices are made at the
decentralized level
1. The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism)2. The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to
overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes)
3. Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies)
4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability
5. Less domination by vested interests: opening up of policy process
What’s new about transition management?
Incrementalism Goal-oriented modulation —of which transition management is an example
Planning
Key actors Private and public actors
Private and public actors
Bureaucrats and experts
Steering philosophy
Partisan mutual adaptation
Modulation of developments to collectively chosen goals, government is facilitator & mediator
Hierarchy
Structuring form
Polyarchy Heterarchy
Hierarchy
Role for anticipation
Limited (no long-term goals)
Dynamic anticipation of desired futures as basis for interaction
Future is anticipated and implemented
Type of learning
First-order: learning about quick fixes for remedying immediate ills
Second-order and first-order (rethink following problem structuring)
First-order (instrumental)
Mechanism for coordination
Markets and emergent institutionalisation
Markets, network management, institutionalisation (both designed and emergent)
Hierarchy (top-down)
Degree of adaptivity
Adaptive Highly adaptive thanks to especially created adaptive capacity
Hardly adaptive
Role for strategy and plans
Limited role Important role for goals and strategic experiments for exploring social trajectories, as apart of adaptive programmes for system innovation.
Plans with steps
Interest mediation/ conflict resolution
Individual gains for everyone
Rewards for innovators, phase out of non-sustainable practices through markets and politics
Little mediation (implementation and enforcement)
Type of change that is sought
Incremental, non-disruptive change
System innovation and system improvement
Predetermined outcome