Stratfor Net Assessments:Stratfor Net Assessments:The Soviet UnionThe Soviet Union
February 2, 2007February 2, 2007
RussiaRussia
Methodology:Methodology:The Importance of PlaceThe Importance of Place
The mindset of placeThe mindset of place– Place makes industry makes peoplePlace makes industry makes people– Easy transport = political unityEasy transport = political unity– Coasts + hinterland = contact + trade = Coasts + hinterland = contact + trade =
acceptance of changeacceptance of change
Korea vs. SingaporeKorea vs. Singapore
Methodology (example):Methodology (example):The Importance of PlaceThe Importance of Place
The Importance of PlaceThe Importance of Place
The result is The result is manic depressionmanic depression– SputnikSputnik– VietnamVietnam– Oil shocks, Oil shocks,
Japanphobia and Japanphobia and the 1980s the 1980s recessionsrecessions
– September 11, September 11, 20012001
The Geography of EuropeThe Geography of Europe
PeninsulasPeninsulas IslandsIslands MountainsMountains CoastlinesCoastlines RiversRivers Northern PlainNorthern Plain VeryVery small small
spacespace
The The Importance of Importance of
PlacePlaceDistinguished by ethnicity, Distinguished by ethnicity,
united by trade and united by trade and divided by wardivided by war
Who Russia IsWho Russia IsWhat Russia FacesWhat Russia Faces
GeographyGeographyHistoryHistoryCultureCultureSecuritySecurity
EconomicsEconomicsDemographyDemography
The Russian GeographyThe Russian Geography
No warm portsNo warm ports Useless riversUseless rivers Mostly barrenMostly barren
Vast distancesVast distances Negligible natural Negligible natural
barriersbarriers
A Very Brief History of A Very Brief History of RussiaRussia ~1100-1200: Clashes with First Reich~1100-1200: Clashes with First Reich
~1200-1480: Mongol Domination~1200-1480: Mongol Domination 1533-1584: Ivan the Terrible and religious 1533-1584: Ivan the Terrible and religious
“reformation”“reformation” 1598-1613: Time of Troubles (Poland helps)1598-1613: Time of Troubles (Poland helps) 1650-1680: Europe’s religious wars involve Russia1650-1680: Europe’s religious wars involve Russia 1682-1796: The Greats (Peter and Catherine)1682-1796: The Greats (Peter and Catherine) 1812: Napoleonic wars hit Russia1812: Napoleonic wars hit Russia 1904-1905: The Great Fleets1904-1905: The Great Fleets 1917: Peace! Land! Bread!1917: Peace! Land! Bread! 1930s: Stalin’s Terror1930s: Stalin’s Terror 1939-1945: The Great Patriotic War1939-1945: The Great Patriotic War 1962: Cuban Missile Crisis1962: Cuban Missile Crisis 1989-1994: Soviet Dissolution and Shock Therapy1989-1994: Soviet Dissolution and Shock Therapy 1998: Ruble Crisis1998: Ruble Crisis
Ultimately comes down to a Ultimately comes down to a cycle of three developmentscycle of three developments– Rejection of all things Rejection of all things
WesternWestern– Worship of all things WesternWorship of all things Western– OccupationOccupation
Security (or lack thereof)Security (or lack thereof) Indefensible SiberiaIndefensible Siberia The NATO hedgeThe NATO hedge The European PlainThe European Plain
Infrastructure Infrastructure limitationslimitations
The FSU’s Muslim beltThe FSU’s Muslim belt
Russian Society: Russian Society: A Culture With A Superiority A Culture With A Superiority
ComplexComplexBased on an Inferiority ComplexBased on an Inferiority Complex Geographic barriers to growth produce Geographic barriers to growth produce
insular mindsetinsular mindset Difficult topography encourages sense Difficult topography encourages sense
of prideof pride Endless vulnerability fosters culture of Endless vulnerability fosters culture of
paranoiaparanoia Shielding of Europe creates mentality Shielding of Europe creates mentality
of jealousy, resentment and of jealousy, resentment and entitlemententitlement
Military StatusMilitary Status
Technology nearly Technology nearly without peerwithout peer
Huge standing Huge standing armyarmy
Culture of sacrifice Culture of sacrifice and militarization and militarization
Military StatusMilitary Status Shadow of its former selfShadow of its former self Discredited by ChechnyaDiscredited by Chechnya Border facilities goneBorder facilities gone Warning system Warning system
compromisedcompromised Procurement phased outProcurement phased out
Keeping Up With the Keeping Up With the Neighbors: 1990Neighbors: 1990
0
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1000
Population (millions)
Russia China EU US
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7000
GDP (billions)
Russia China EU US
Keeping Up With the Keeping Up With the Neighbors: 2006Neighbors: 2006
0
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600
800
1000
1200
1400
Population (millions)
Russia China EU US
0
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6000
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GDP (billions)
Russia China EU US
Russia TodayRussia Today
BordersBorders Infrastructure Infrastructure IndustryIndustry DistributionDistribution Energy addiction Energy addiction
CorruptionCorruption OligarchsOligarchs SilovikiSiloviki
DemographicsDemographics– Birth/Death ratesBirth/Death rates– EthnicityEthnicity– DistributionDistribution– EmigrationEmigration– Immigration Immigration – DrugsDrugs– Disease (TB/HIV)Disease (TB/HIV)
Security and Economy: Workforce and Security and Economy: Workforce and ArmyArmy Mass army the only reasonable defense strategyMass army the only reasonable defense strategy
In 2005 57 percent of draftees were rejected on In 2005 57 percent of draftees were rejected on health groundshealth grounds
Mass technical training ceased in 1990Mass technical training ceased in 1990 In 2010 post-CW births become draft ageIn 2010 post-CW births become draft age In 2020 youngest with technical training reach In 2020 youngest with technical training reach
average Russian lifespanaverage Russian lifespan
Born Post-CW Current draftees
Youngest cohort with technical
training
Average mortality (57)
Russia’s Russia’s NightmaresNightmares
Russia in a NutshellRussia in a Nutshell Culture: insular, paranoid, prideful and Culture: insular, paranoid, prideful and
believe that believe that youyou owe them something owe them something better Geography: how could you be dealt better Geography: how could you be dealt a worse hand?a worse hand?
History: the amazing thing is that the History: the amazing thing is that the Russians are still hereRussians are still here
Economics: massive – and probably Economics: massive – and probably insurmountable – barriers to developmentinsurmountable – barriers to development
Security: impossible, yet they yearn for itSecurity: impossible, yet they yearn for it
Russia’s PathRussia’s PathThen and NowThen and Now
StrategyStrategy
PoliticsPolitics
Recent History:Recent History:The Current “Western The Current “Western
Worship”Worship”The USSR cannot win vs. the WestThe USSR cannot win vs. the West
save a thermonuclear exchangesave a thermonuclear exchange– Geographically: encircled by sea powersGeographically: encircled by sea powers– Industrial: always playing catch upIndustrial: always playing catch up– Information: missed the information Information: missed the information
revolutionrevolution– Technological: entire intellectual capital Technological: entire intellectual capital
based upon central dictatsbased upon central dictats– Economic: central planning vs. capitalismEconomic: central planning vs. capitalism
Andropov’s SolutionAndropov’s Solution Trade away the one thing that the Trade away the one thing that the
USSR had in abundance: geopolitical USSR had in abundance: geopolitical influenceinfluence
Mid-1980s: extra-European assetsMid-1980s: extra-European assets 1989-1991: Central Europe1989-1991: Central Europe 1992-1997: Central Asia1992-1997: Central Asia 1998-1999: Balkans, Financial 1998-1999: Balkans, Financial
independenceindependence 2000-2005: Baltics, Ukraine2000-2005: Baltics, Ukraine
Stratfor’s Internal Stratfor’s Internal DisagreementDisagreement
Our official view: Our official view: RevitalizationRevitalization– Russia boasts Russia boasts
tremendous tremendous regenerative powersregenerative powers
– Resurgence is in Resurgence is in progressprogress
– The future is of a The future is of a reformed Soviet Union reformed Soviet Union and a renewed (if we and a renewed (if we are lucky) Cold Warare lucky) Cold War
Stratfor’s Internal Stratfor’s Internal DisagreementDisagreement
The dissident view: The dissident view: Final collapseFinal collapse– Russia’s current fall Russia’s current fall
predates the Cold predates the Cold War’s endWar’s end
– The traditional The traditional Russian strength – Russian strength – demography – is now demography – is now a weaknessa weakness
– Institutional failure Institutional failure has already begunhas already begun
When We’ll Know: Three When We’ll Know: Three YearsYears
Independent estimates of Russian HIV cases Independent estimates of Russian HIV cases breached 1 million in 2001 (2m in ’06?)breached 1 million in 2001 (2m in ’06?)
In 2008-2010 mass AIDS deaths will likely In 2008-2010 mass AIDS deaths will likely begin to the tune of 500,000 / year, almost begin to the tune of 500,000 / year, almost exclusively in the under-30 age cohortexclusively in the under-30 age cohort
Depopulation could then reach Depopulation could then reach 1.0m-1.5m/year, nearly half among those of 1.0m-1.5m/year, nearly half among those of childbearing agechildbearing age
If Russia has not begun to move once this If Russia has not begun to move once this disaster becomes entrenched, it is finished disaster becomes entrenched, it is finished
Stratfor’s Internal Stratfor’s Internal AgreementAgreement
DissolutionDissolution– Stick with AndropovStick with Andropov– Concede UkraineConcede Ukraine– Allow foreign Allow foreign
management of management of energyenergy
– DenuclearizeDenuclearize– Allow secession of Allow secession of
Siberian, Baltic and Siberian, Baltic and Muslim regions Muslim regions
– Prepare for civil Prepare for civil breakdownbreakdown
RetaliationRetaliation– Abandon AndropovAbandon Andropov– Use energy to Use energy to
neutralize Europeneutralize Europe– Use weapons sales Use weapons sales
to complicate US to complicate US hegemonyhegemony
– Use diplomacy to Use diplomacy to hobble US imagehobble US image
– Burn resources in Burn resources in attempt to build attempt to build multi-polar worldmulti-polar world
The intent is obvious, so it all becomes a The intent is obvious, so it all becomes a question of capability.question of capability.
The oligarchsThe oligarchs– People who robbed People who robbed
the state blind in the state blind in the 1990sthe 1990s
St. Pete’s brigada St. Pete’s brigada – people who think people who think
they’d do better in a they’d do better in a more “Western” Russiamore “Western” Russia
Where From Here?Where From Here?The Political EnvironmentThe Political Environment
SilovikiSiloviki– Former (and current) military Former (and current) military
and security service personnel and security service personnel who want to see Russia who want to see Russia reemerge as a major reemerge as a major geopolitical forcegeopolitical force
PutinPutin– Westernizer who Westernizer who
knows Russia can knows Russia can never again never again become a major become a major powerpower
Where From Here?Where From Here?The Political EnvironmentThe Political Environment
The New Pragmatists The New Pragmatists – Dmitry MedvedevDmitry Medvedev– Sergei IvanovSergei Ivanov
A nationalist in a A nationalist in a reformist’s clothes and reformist’s clothes and vice versavice versa
Which does not mean Which does not mean that they have a plan that they have a plan yetyet
The New ParadigmThe New Paradigm
Getting Ready for Something Getting Ready for Something NewNew
Reassert control of Russia’s economic Reassert control of Russia’s economic backbonebackbone
Ensure zero internal political interferenceEnsure zero internal political interference Revitalize the militaryRevitalize the military Use economic tools to insinuate Russia Use economic tools to insinuate Russia
abroad to achieve maximum future abroad to achieve maximum future leverageleverage
Reconsolidate control over the Near Reconsolidate control over the Near AbroadAbroad
So What Is this ‘Something So What Is this ‘Something New’?New’?
??
Q&AQ&A