Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2005Implementation – July 2005
John McGinley, Steve Albers*, Ed Szoke*, Dan Birkenheuer
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
*In collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA),Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
OverviewOverview
Review of System DesignCase Studies - VerificationWork Accomplished Since 2004 TIMRecommended ScheduleIssuesDiscussion
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
System Design ReviewSystem Design Review
Basic requirements– New 24-h forecast every 6 hours– High spatial resolution (1 km objective)– Support launch weather operations and range safety
requirements for dispersion modeling– Integrate with display system (AWIPS)
Trades considered– Size of domain and nesting options– Forecast length vs. scale predictability– Computational resources vs. cost-benefit– Future upgrade path
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Basic SolutionBasic Solution
LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP modelUse diabatic initialization (“hot start”)Utilize parallel code on Linux clusterIntegrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
AWIPS IntegrationAWIPS Integration
AWIPSData Server AWIPS
Workstation
ModelingServer
NOAAPORT LDAD
LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids
Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Hardware ConfigurationHardware Configuration Linux Cluster Modeling Server
– 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors)– Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node– 60GB RAID array on front-end– Myrinet inter-connect
Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on
master node 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
LAPS Domain ConfigurationLAPS Domain Configuration Triple Nest Domain
– 97x97– 10.0/3.3/1.1 km x– 10km for Model Init– 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting
LAPS Runs – Hourly analyses– 41 Pressure levels– Runs at H+20 min– Available at H+30 min
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
RSA LAPS Data SourcesRSA LAPS Data Sources
National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed)– Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215)– Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity– GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR)– MDCARS– RAOBs– METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys– National Profiler Network
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
RSA LAPS Data SourcesRSA LAPS Data Sources
Sea Surface Temperature Data– NCEP internet FTP feed– GFS model
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
RSA LAPS Data SourcesRSA LAPS Data Sources
Local Data (via LDAD)– Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr)– Local ASOS Observations– 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers– MiniSODAR Wind Profiles– RASS– Tower observations– AMPS Soundings– Local MM5 forecast grids
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
MM5 Forecast ModelMM5 Forecast Model
MM5 v3 used for RSA application– Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002– FSL modifications for diabatic initialization– FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations
Concurrent post-processing– Supports multiple output formats– Allows viewing on workstation as model runs– Hourly temporal output
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
MM5 Forecast ModelMM5 Forecast Model
Two configurations for RSA– “Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS
Used for “downscaling” national model Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial) Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and NCEP SST Domain 1 (10km) only Not displayed on AWIPS
– Forecast run used for operational forecasts Diabatically intialized with LAPS Runs every 6 hours Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
MM5 Run ConfigurationMM5 Run Configuration(Development System Config)(Development System Config)
30-second timestep MRF PBL Scheme Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains 2-way feedback between nests Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic) Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
0-3 h QPF Verification0-3 h QPF Verification
IHOP 0-3 h QPF Equitable Skill Score (Event Equalized) 158 Runs from 16 May-25 June 2002
30172 Obs/Forecast Pairs
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Precip Threshold (in)
Eq
uit
ab
le S
kil
l S
co
re
MM5 12km
MM5 12km RR
WRF 12km
Eta 12km
IHOP 0-3 h QPF Bias Score (Event Equalized)158 Runs from 16 May-25 Jun 2002
30172 Obs/Forecast Pairs
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Precip Threshold (in)
Freq
uenc
y B
ias
MM5 12km
MM5 12km RR
WRF 12km
Eta 12km
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
0-6 h QPF Verification0-6 h QPF Verification
IHOP 0-6 h QPF Equitable Skill Score (Event Equalized) 157 Runs from 16 May-25 June 2002
29531 Obs/Forecast Pairs
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00
Precip Threshold (in)
Eq
uit
ab
le S
kil
l S
co
re
MM5 12km
MM5 12km RR
WRF 12km
Eta 12km
IHOP 0-6 h QPF Bias Score (Event Equalized)157 Runs from 16 May-25 Jun 2002
29531 Obs/Forecast Pairs
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00
Precip Threshold (in)
Freq
uenc
y B
ias
MM5 12km
MM5 12km RR
WRF 12km
Eta 12km
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
0-12 h QPF Verification0-12 h QPF Verification
IHOP 0-12 h QPF Equitable Skill Score (Event Equalized) 157 Runs from 16 May-25 June 2002
28802 Obs/Forecast Pairs
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00
Precip Threshold (in)
Eq
uit
ab
le S
kil
l S
co
re
MM5 12km
MM5 12km RR
WRF 12km
Eta 12km
IHOP 0-12 h QPF Bias Score (Event Equalized)157 Runs from 16 May-25 Jun 2002
28802 Obs/Forecast Pairs
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00
Precip Threshold (in)
Fre
qu
ency
Bia
s
MM5 12km
MM5 12km RR
WRF 12km
Eta 12km
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
JAX WRF QPF VerificationJAX WRF QPF Verification
0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Vertical Level ConfigurationVertical Level Configuration
41 Levels
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
LAPS-MM5 Production CycleLAPS-MM5 Production Cycle
National Model Forecast(Eta via SBN)
MM5 Update Cycle (10km)
1-h Forecast for First Guess
2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC
10-km LAPS Analysis
3.3-km LAPS Analysis
1.1-km LAPS Analysis
Hourly CycleHourly Cycle
MM5 Forecast(Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h- 3.3 to 12h- 1.1 to 9h
Observations via SBN and
LDAD
Diabatic Init. Cond.
Lateral Boundary Conditions
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
MM5 Forecast Run TimelineMM5 Forecast Run Timeline
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Valid Hour
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Actual Hour
All 3 Domains (2.3:1 Ratio)
2 Domains (7.8:1 Ratio)
1 Domain (36:1 Ratio)
Run time based on:12 processors for model1 processor for each post job
Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar VerificationCape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification9 Feb 049 Feb 04
RSA ExamplesRSA Examples
Eastern Range
June 8, 2005
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Series of plots for 15z 10 km run, model reflectivity is heavy cyan contours, observed is image
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, COAnalysis and beginning of the 21z/10 km run. Doesn’t get echoes to start.
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO15z 3 km run
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO15z 1 km run; at 1 km cells do develop faster
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CONext 2 are from 09z run. Seeing if it got the overnight land breeze line off the east coast.
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Build HistoryBuild History
RSA LAPS/MM5 V1: Dec 2001– Initial installation at WR
RSA LAPS/MM5 V2: Aug 2002– Initial installation at ER
– Included “easy” install CD, provided to LMMS
RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.1: July 2003– Delivered to LMMS on CD
RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.2: July 2004– Delivered to LMMS on CD
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Current StatusCurrent Status
Current RSA status– Fully adapted to AS 2.1 OS– Testing criteria delivered to LM– Model status
Improved Schultz microphysics Shallow Cu scheme
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities
Current activities– Data failure test simulated at FSL
/data/fxa disk mount disabled for ~40 minutes Model forecast continued to run with degraded
analysis Analyses were interrupted, changes since made to
help prevent this
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Next few month deliverablesNext few month deliverables
Deliverables (next few months)– New LAPS/MM5 build in July 2005
Accommodates AS 2.1/2.3 Deliver installation CD Test CD installation needed? (what procedure)?
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Future DeliverablesFuture Deliverables
Future Deliverables– MM5 to WRF transition – New modeler on staff July 18, 2005
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Deficiencies in Build V2.1Deficiencies in Build V2.1
Deficiencies:– TKE PBL schemes in MM5 under-predict
diurnal temperature range– Microphysics require saturation in cloudy grid
boxes
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Accomplishments Since Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIMJune 2004 TIM
LAPS Analysis Improvements– QC flag codes 13-20 now interpreted
– Edit flag now checked for AMPS data
– Dense SODAR levels processing improved
– Met TOWER QC now applied
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Accomplishments Since Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIMJune 2004 TIM
LAPS Analysis Improvements– Surface analysis parameters adjusted based on study
of Hurricane Charlie
– 3-D reflectivity mapping improved to minimize artifacts in high-resolution domains
– Moisture analysis component changes to use GOES gradient structure
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
LAPS Moisture Variational Step LAPS Moisture Variational Step now Relies on Satellite Gradientsnow Relies on Satellite Gradients
Other aspects of the moisture analysis have not changed
The International H2O Project identified problems with satellite derived product moisture – (too moist, or more specifically moist biased)
Two approaches are now underway to address this problem
– Correct the bias problem in the GOES moisture data
– Modify the analysis system to ignore this moisture bias by using moisture gradients from this source
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
The new approach is to utilize only The new approach is to utilize only satellite gradients in the analysissatellite gradients in the analysis
Old method New method
Better structureLess moist bias
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Accomplishments Since Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIMJune 2004 TIM
MM5 Forecast Improvements– Implementing daily GFS SST analyses
Provides better forecasts than “pseudo-SST” Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis
– Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for TKE field for
HYPACT integration
– Updated scripts for new OS (Nov 2004)– Implemented new Schultz II microphysics– Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Accomplishments Since Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIMJune 2004 TIM
Verification Package– Surface observations vs. MM5 forecast– Requires MySQL database– Interactive query capability
Command line or web based User customization options
– Being set up on development system for 10-km MM5 grids
– Still testing interface scripts
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Recommended ScheduleRecommended Schedule
Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.0 – July 2005– CD delivery to LMMS with installation scripts– Includes all changes discussed previously
Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.1 – Jan 2006?– Incorporate WRF forecast model– 30-minute analysis cycle– Adds AMPS ingest– improved verification package
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Outstanding IssuesOutstanding Issues
FSL access to RTAMPS dataComplete real-time data preferable to partial archived
– Helps evaluate spatial distribution and QC performanceAnalysis bulls-eyes and QC
– Land/sea weighting functionNOAAPORT buoy data timing
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Outstanding Issues (cont)Outstanding Issues (cont)
Additional SST testing
Ingest /Analysis of Soil sensor data
Interface to GOES Sounder on NOAAPORT?
30-min LAPS cycle
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Narrowband / SoilNarrowband / Soil
Narrowband (Level-III) radar– AWIPS to LAPS NetCDF converter needs repair
Soil moisture– Overall Soil Moisture currently in Big File– Add other soil related fields?– What soil observations are at Ranges?
– Data formats?
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
VerificationVerification
Verification package– Can run on more powerful headnode
Requires another software package (MySQL) Web server running on headnode for interactive
displays Forecasters use web browser to access verification
info Product reliability monitor will be included
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
Model output to AMUModel output to AMU
Model output to AMU– Exportation of “bigfile” via ftp or LDAD– Multiple options possible
Should model grids be enlarged?– More computer power may be needed for this
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
SBN data limitationsSBN data limitations
SBN data limitations– Partially mitigated by use of NCEP SST– LMMS EDS project should fully mitigate
15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO
SummarySummary
July build on-track– Improved LAPS analysis with additional local
data and improved algorithms– Better forecasts from new microphysics, better
SST
Apache server installed for verification display at ranges
Continue planning for future
Discussion?Discussion?