State of the WA Environment Climate Change Vulnerabilities & Impacts:
The unavoidable need for managing change
Dr Wally Cox
Chairman
Environmental Protection Authority
SoE Overview • Report to community and decision
makers (every 5 years)• Major environmental issues and
trends• Raise awareness• ID responses required
• Report out in late 2006
WA State of the Environment 2006
Pressures State
Response
SOER
Scope
• Fundamental Pressures:– CLIMATE CHANGE , population &
consumption
• Major environmental themes:– Land, air, inland waters, marine,
biodiversity , human settlements, heritage
• NRM Sectors:– Agriculture, mining, energy, water supply
etc
WA State of the Environment 2006
Climate change identified in every section
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeAnthropogenic
Drivers
Vulnerability
Western Australian ImpactsWestern Australian Impacts
SpontaneousAdaptation
ResidualVulnerability
NaturalDrivers
WestWestAustralianAustralianActionAction
Emissions,MitigationEmissions,Mitigation
Planned Adaptation(ie reduction of vulnerability
WA State of the Environment 2006
Aspects of climate change
WA’s position
• Primary focus greenhouse gas emissions mitigation
• Global emissions reduction beyond our control
• Change is inevitable
• WA must prepare to live with and adapt to climate change
WA State of the Environment 2006
Vulnerabilities
• Key drivers temperature and rainfall
• Every living organism has a T & R range
• Implications for natural and economic systems in WA
WA State of the Environment 2006
Key vulnerabilities - natural systemsGeneral: Climate change will exacerbate current threats to biodiversity, natural systems
Individual species: Some threatened spp. even more vulnerable,Some too slow to adapt, move
eg Stirling Range Moggridgea sp. spider
V narrow range, highly vulnerable to fire, increased fire incidence will increase vulnerability
Endangered mammal spp. In the SW eg Dibbler
Exacerbation of existing threats – loss of habitat, increased fire threat
Vegetation assemblages Impacts on many vegetation types
eg Decline in Tuart, Wandoo
Already subject to a number of stresses
Decline in Karri, Marri, Tingles
Future risk from lower rainfall
Ecosystems
Coral reef bleaching Increase in # high sea temperature events
Loss of wetlands Lower rainfall, increased eutrophication
Decline in riverine ecosystems
Reduced streamflow, increased eutrophication
Key vulnerabilities - economic systemsGeneral: Most NRM sectors vulnerable to CC
Sector Vulnerability Drivers
Water supply -SW
Risks to quantity and quality of water supply
Decreased rainfall, increased evaporation, corresponding non-linear decrease in runoff & g/water recharge
Agriculture Changing productivity, impacts on farm profitability
Increased temperatures, changes in evaporation, enhanced CO2 concentrations, increased seasonal variability, changes in rainfall intensities
Pastoralism Decrease in viability of (southern) rangelands
Rainfall decline in southern rangelands leading to reduced pasture growth and water availability
Forestry Changing productivity, changes in sustainable yields from native forests
Rainfall decline, increasing temperatures, exacerbation of pests and diseases
Gnangara Mound decline
Consequences
Banksia littoralis
Banksia prionotes
Regelia ciliata
Yanchep Caves Stygofauna and root
matt communities
Median monthly flows for the Harris River, near Collie before and after 1976
Adaptation - Principles• Prevent and/or modify threats
• Change uses / activities
• Change location of activities
• Expand research into impacts, technologies and methods of adaptation
• Educate, inform and encourage behavioural change
WA State of the Environment 2006
Adaptation - capacity• Some areas will be able to adapt:
– Water sector– Coastal planning– Agriculture
• Some won’t– Vulnerable SW ecosystems – Wheatbelt spp.– Southern rangelands?– Coral reefs – Ningaloo, Dampier
Archipelago
WA State of the Environment 2006
Intervention?
WA State of the Environment 2006
Natural adaptation
Intervention: adaptive management
Extreme / deliberate intervention -‘Last line of defence’
Millenium Seed Bank Project, cryogenic chamber Yanchep stygofauna
Cost of intervention
Technology requirements
Timeframe
Knowledge
Conclusion
• The “Greenhouse Bulldozer” is coming • We have a moral obligation to reduce our
GHG emissions• We need to:
– Enhance our understanding of the impacts for WA environment and sectors
– Plan to adapt AND – Adapt
WA State of the Environment 2006