State of the Ecosystem Report:Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine
Sean Lucey, reporting on behalf of many
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
contributors
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
New England Fishery Management Council
17 April 2017
State of the Ecosystem reports, 2014-2016
• Shorter, targeted at fishery
management councils
• Similar docs in other regions
• Presented to NEFMC 2014-
2016
• Presented to MAFMC SSC
September 2016
• To both Councils April 2017
2
Current revision:
new outline
3
Big picture
Humans
Resource species
Protected species
Ecosystem base
Physics
Climate
Start with an ecosystem conceptual model
• Highlight
linkages
• Understand
how human
well-being is
affected by
changing
conditions
4
4/18/2017 5
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
Summary: performance relative to objectives
3
Single
species
objectives:
• Only 40% of stocks
managed by the
NEFMC are meeting
objectives
• 15 are within target
ranges
• 9 exceed F rates
and/or below B
reference points
• 14 have unknown
status
How to read the plots
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5 A
12141618202224
B
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Re
cre
atio
nal p
art
icip
ation
, 1
06n
Most recent
10 years
Significant long term trend
Significant
short term
trend
Standard
deviation
Functional groups of species
Proportion managed by NEFMC
• All plots include totals for the region including species not
managed by the NEFMC
• Table below shows the average proportion of managed
stocks over the past 5 years
11
Seafood production: Landings
• Seafood production
increasingly relies
on benthos and
benthivores
(scallops, lobsters)
• Other groups are
stable or decreasing
in landings
Seafood production: Landings
13
• Seafood production
increasingly relies
on benthos and
benthivores
(scallops, lobsters)
• Other groups are
stable or decreasing
in landings
Seafood production: Mariculture
• Collected state by state
• Able to gather information
from the state of Maine
and Rhode Island
14
RI Oysters
ME Salmon
ME Trout
ME Blue Mussels
ME Oysters
Profits objective
15
• Majority of Gulf of
Maine revenue is
from a single
species not
managed by the
council (Lobster)
• Majority of Georges
Bank revenue is
from a single
species (scallops)
Profits objective
16
• Majority of Gulf of
Maine revenue is
from a single
species not
managed by the
council (Lobster)
• Majority of Georges
Bank revenue is
from a single
species (scallops)
Recreational opportunities objective
17
• Recreational opportunitiesfrom fishing have also increased over the long term, according to numbers of anglers (A) and angler trips (B).
• However, there has been a significant decline over the past 10 years which may have started with the 2008 economic collapse, though recovery of recreational indices has not matched recovery in the wider economy.
Human community characteristics and risk
• New England
communities have
a higher reliance
on commercial
activities than the
Mid Atlantic
• Downeast Maine
has a stronger
reliance than other
parts of the region
18
Commercial
engagement
Recreational
engagement
Commercial
relianceRecreational
reliance
Human community characteristics and risk
• New England region has relatively low risk from sea level rise
• Moderate to high reliance on species vulnerable to climate
• Generally low catch diversity especially in the Gulf of Maine
19
Sea level
rise risk
Climate
vulnerability
Catch
diversity
Stability objective
• Stability is addressed with
indices of commercial fleet
and species revenue
diversity.
• These show long term
declines in the New
England, which may raise a
caution flag for stability
within the industry, but
requires further investigation
into mechanisms.
20
Number of fleets
Fleet revenue diversity
Species revenue diversity
Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends
• Biomass trends for aggregated trophic levels are similar
across seasons
• Forage fish and benthos show long term increases
• Higher trophic levels have stable or increasing trends
• Largely driven by non-commercial species
21
Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends
22
FallSpring
Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends
23
Spring Fall
Biomass and trophic structure: diversity
• Diversity has
increased in the
Gulf of Maine
• Remained stable or
decreased on
Georges Bank
24
Fish productivity: condition, reproduction
• Additional indicators in this report suggest a note of caution
for the aggregate productivity of commercial fish species
in the region
25
Fish weight per length dropped in 2000,
recovering recently?Aggregate numbers of small fish per large
fish biomass on the survey declining?
Protected species productivity
• While there are few time series for protected species, the North Atlantic right whale may be declining over the most recent few years after a slow but steady increase.
• Common terns have a longtermincrease while Artic terns have decreased
• Further, signals from the wider northwest Atlantic suggest a decrease in forage fish energy content.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
250300350400450500
Year
Min
imum
n a
live
Base of the food web
• Smaller less energy
dense zooplankton
have been
increasing
• Primary production
has been average
27
Temperature and Climate conditions• Temperature is increasing in long term sea surface records as
well as surface and bottom measurements from surveys. The
seasonal temperature signal also shows sustained warming.
28
Temperature and Climate conditions
29
Georges Bank
Gulf of Maine
Bottom Temperature (A: April, B: October) 2016 Seasonal Surface Temperature
Temperature and Climate conditions
• Warming waters have impacts on the ecosystem that can be
complex due to differential impacts at the species level,
including observed shifts in species distribution and
changes in productivity as thermal habitats shift30
Temperature and Climate conditions
31
Temperature and Climate conditions
• Regional climate indices show a northward movement of the Gulf Stream north wall which can be a local mechanism for increased temperature and species redistribution.
• Daily variation in sea surface temperature is increasing.
• Deep ocean circulation is weakening, leading to the northward Gulf Stream shift and enhancing sea level rise.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
38.6
38.8
39.0
39.2
39.4
YearG
ulf S
trea
m N
ort
h W
all,
°la
titu
de
Gulf of Maine
Georges Bank
Questions
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