Assessing Global Patterns of Regime ShiftsJuan-Carlos Rocha - PhD student (2010-2015)
The problemDoes Johan need a new chair?? - NOUP
Frequency and intensity of regime shifts are likely to increase in the anthropocene & many ES’s may be substantially affected.
What are the main drivers globally?What can we do to manage them and avoid undesirable regime shifts?What are the possible cascading or synergistic effects?Where are they likely to happen?Vulnerable areas? Rockström et al., 2009
Yeah, sure... but how?By getting an office or figures more colorful than Johan’s?? - NOUP
Juan uses recent developments of network science and apply them to toy models of regime shifts. He plans to map vulnerability of regime shifts to climate change and apply data mining techniques to anticipate potential impacts on ecosystem services.
Network of causal loop diagrams for 19 regime shifts in polar, terrestrial and marine ecosystems
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Proportion of Regime Shifts (n=20)
Prop
ortio
n of
Driv
ers
shar
ing
caus
ality
to R
egim
e Sh
ifts
(n=5
5)
Agriculture
Atmospheric CO2
Deforestation
Demand
DroughtsFishing
Global warming
Human populationNutrients inputs
Urbanization
AgricultureAtmospheric CO2
DeforestationDemand
Droughts
Fishing
Global warming
Human population
Nutrients inputsUrbanization
What are the main drivers of Regime Shifts?
Food production & climate change are the most important drivers or regime shifts globally
Only 11 out of our 55 drivers cause 25-60% of the 20 regime shifts we analyzed in marine, terrestrial and polar ecosystems . These 11 drivers interact with 50-85% of other drivers when causing regime shifts.
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Dry land degradation Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries collapse
Floating plants
Forest to savannas
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Marine foodwebs
Monsoon weakening
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt marshes
Soil salinization
Soil structure
Thermohaline circulation
Tundra to Forest
Marine regime shifts tend to share significantly more drivers and tend to have similar feedback mechanisms, suggesting they can synchronize in space and time. By managing key drivers several regime shifts can be avoided in aquatic systems.
Terrestrial regime shifts share less drivers. Higher diversity of drivers makes management more context dependent.
How the drivers tend to interact?
What does it mean for management?
Floating plantsBivalves collapseEutrophication
Fisheries collapseCoral transitions
HypoxiaEncroachment
Salt marshesSoil salinization
Soil structureForest to savannas
Dry land degradationKelps transitions
Monsoon weakeningPeatlands
Marine foodwebsGreenland
Thermohaline circulationRiver channel change
Tundra to ForestLocalNationalInternational
Drivers by Management Type
Proportion of RS Drivers
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Avoiding regime shifts calls for poli-centric institutions.
Half of the drivers of 75% of the regime shifts require international cooperation to manage them.
Given the high diversity of drivers, focusing on well studied variables (e.g. nutrients inputs) wont preclude regime shifts from happening.
Parallel projects & collaboration
1. Text mining to infer potential ecosystem services affected by regime shifts (with Robin Wikström - Abo University)
2. Networks of Drivers and Ecosystem Services consequences of Marine Regime Shifts (with Peterson, Biggs, Blenckner & Yletyinen)
3. Experimental economics in Colombia: how people respond to abrupt ecosystem change? (with Schill, Crepin & Lindahl)
4. Resource - trade networks: Can we detect cascading effects among regime shifts by tracing trade signals?
5. Holling’s logic in reverse: Can networks infer resilience surrogates in SES?
Thanks!!
Welcome to join Juan’s licentiate defense: June 3rd 2013
Questions? [email protected]
Research blog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com
News and papers on regime shifts: @juanrocha