3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 1
Some developments at ECMWFduring 2005
Mariano Hortal
ECMWF
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 2
Overview
• New PBL scheme
• Wavelet Jb in 4D-Var
• TL799L91 in preoperational mode
• TL2047
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 3
Is there any skill in cloud forecasts?
( )1
( )
RMSE forecastSKILL
RMSE persistence
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 4
ECMWF PBL parameterization (- 2004)(similar at NCAR, NCEP, Arpege, DWD,…)
moist mass-flux convection
dry K diffusion PBL
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 5
PBL cloud unification – an MK approachMartin Köhler, ECMWF
key ingredients:
• moist conserved variables
• combined Mass-flux/K-diffusion solver
• cloud variability
• transition between stratocumulus and shallow convection
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 6
A statistical mass flux framework for organized updrafts
PDF of {w, qt ,ql }
Mass flux
Top % of updrafts that are explicitly modelled
K diffusion
{w, qt ,ql }
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 7
improved marine stratocumulus (MK PBL-old)
T511 time=10d
n=140
old: CY28R4 new MK PBL
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 8
Peruvian stratocumulus: model column vs EPIC observations
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 9
European Stratus in December 2004
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 10
Wavelet Jb
• Wavelet Jb defines the analysis’ “change-of-variable” and the background cost function as:
– Index j denotes “scale” (wavenumber band).
– The functions Ψj are localized spatially, and in wavenumber.
– The Vj are block-diagonal, with vertical covariance matrix blocks, and one block per gridpoint.
• Convolution with Ψj limits the influence of Vj to a band of wavenumbers and to nearby gridpoints.
• The result is a covariance model that allows both spatial and spectral variation of covariances.
T
1 1
1and
2
K K
b j j j b j jj j
J
x x Ψ V χ χ χ
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 11
Wavelet Jb – 2D Example
• As an example, we illustrate a 2D covariance model on the sphere: approximately-Gaussian structure functions with spatially-varying length scale (300km – 1300km).
• The rows of the covariance matrix can be shown by plotting Bx, with x a set of delta functions.
• For the wavelet Jb covariance model, we have:
2j j j
j
Bx Ψ Ψ x
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 12
Wavelet Jb – 2D Example
• The prescribed length scales are:
1299998.1299996.
300000. 300007.
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 13
Wavelet Jb:
Ψ̂ j
0 .0 00 03 4
0 .0 00 03 4
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
0 .0 00 03 5
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
-0.3 10- 5
-0.2 10- 5
-0.2 10 - 5
-0.2 10 - 5
-0.1 10- 5
-0.8 10- 6
-0.4 10- 6
0.4 10- 6
0.4 10- 6
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
-0 .0 0 0 1
-0 .0 0 0 1
-0 .0 0 0 0 8
-0 .0 0 0 0 8
-0 .0 00 06
-0 .0 00 06
-0 .0 00 04
-0 .0 00 04
-0 .0 00 02
-0 .0 00 02
0 .0 00 02 0 .0 00 02 0 .0 00 02 0 .0 00 02
0.0
0004
0.0
0004
0.0
0004
0.0
0004
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
Where x is a set of delta functions
j x
2j j j
j
Bx Ψ Ψ x
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 14
Wavelet Jb
Scale with σj2
at each gridpoint, and for each scale.
0 .0 250 .0 25
0 .0 5
0 .0 5
0 .0 75 0 .0 75
0 .0 75
0 .0 750 .0 75
0 .1
0 .1
0 .1 25
0 .1 250 .1 5
0 .1 5 0 .1 750 .1 75
0 .1 750 .2
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0 .0 05-0 .0 03 75-0 .0 02 5
-0 .0 01 25
-0 .0 01 25
0 .0 01 250 .0 01 25
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0 .2 4-0 .1 6
-0 .1 6
-0 .0 8
-0 .0 8
-0 .0 8
0.0
8
0.0
8
0.0
8
0.0
8
0.1
6
0.1
6
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0 .0 8-0 .0 8-0 .0 8 -0 .0 8
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 15
Wavelet Jb
Convolve again with
0 .0 1 5
0 .0 3
0 .0 4 5
0 .0 6
0 .0 7 5
0 .0 9
0 .1 0 5
0 .1 2
0 .1 3 5
0 .1 5
0 .1 6 5 80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0 .0 02 4
-0 .0 02
-0 .0 01 6
-0 .0 01 6
-0 .0 01 6
-0 .0 01 2
-0 .0 01 2
-0 .0 00 8
-0 .0 00 8
-0 .0 00 4
-0 .0 00 4
0 .0 00 4
0 .0 00 4
0 .0 0 0 8
0 .0 00 8
0 .0 008
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0 .2-0 .1 5-0 .1-0 .0 5
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.0
5-0 .0 5
0.0
5
0.0
5
0.0
5
0.0
5
0.0
5
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
5
0.1
50.1
5
0.1
5
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0.0
8
-0 .0 8 -0 .0 8
-0.0
8
-0.0
8
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80
°S
80
°S
60
°S
60
°S
40
°S
40
°S
20
°S
20
°S
0°0°
20
°N
20
°N
40
°N
40
°N
60
°N
60
°N
80
°N
80
°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
80°S
80°S
60°S
60°S
40°S
40°S
20°S
20°S
0°0°
20°N
20°N
40°N
40°N
60°N
60°N
80°N
80°N
160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E
ˆ ( )j n
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 16
Wavelet Jb
• Add together to give:
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity
-0.0812
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
2j j j
j
Bx Ψ V Ψ x
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 17
Wavelet Jb
• Example: Horizontal and vertical Vorticity Correlations.
North America Equatorial Pacific
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...
AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 55 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
850 hPa VECTOR WIND
FORECAST VERIFICATION
Wavelet Jb
OPER (28r2)
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - dai Wed Sep 28 11:13:20 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...
AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 55 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
200 hPa VECTOR WIND
FORECAST VERIFICATION
Wavelet Jb
OPER (28r2)
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - dai Wed Sep 28 11:14:05 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...
AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 53 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
850 hPa VECTOR WIND
FORECAST VERIFICATION
Wavelet Jb
OPER (28r2)
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - dai Wed Sep 28 13:07:36 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...
AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 53 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
200 hPa VECTOR WIND
FORECAST VERIFICATION
Wavelet Jb
OPER (28r2)
MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - dai Wed Sep 28 13:07:36 2005 Verify SCOCOM
Against analysis Against analysis
Against observations Against observations
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 19
L91 0.01
0.02
0.03
0.050.07
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
1
2
3
5
7
10
20
30
50
70
100
200
300
500
700
1000
Pre
ssur
e (h
Pa)
60 levels 91 levels
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12
14
16
18
20
25
30
35
40455055606570
91
Leve
l num
ber
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 20
Higher horizontal and vertical resolution
Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for northern hemisphere
T511 L60
T799 L91
Day
Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004
User Meeting: June 2005
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 21
Higher horizontal and vertical resolution
Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe
T511 L60
T799 L91
Day
Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004
User Meeting: June 2005
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 22
Higher horizontal and vertical resolution
Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for southern hemisphere
T511 L60
T799 L91
Day
Mean over 197 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 23
Statistical significancet test, 500hPa root-mean-square error
Day 3 Day 5 Day 7
N Hem 0.2% - -
S Hem 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Europe 5% 5% -
Green denotes T799L91 better
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 24
RMS tropical temperature errors against radiosondes
T511 L60
T799 L91
Mean over 197 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005
500hPa 300hPa
100hPa 50hPa
DayDay
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 25
Fit to TEMP observations
used TTEMP-T N.Hemisexp:0028 , ref:oper 2005080100-2005083112(12)
nobsexp
61584 79947 109924 114094 81440 63595 53647 58174 55511 69593 48957 42841 38446 34198 32598 7364
exp - ref
+957 +413 +18
+136 +98
+114 +231 +398 +370 +391 +187 +125 +80 +54 +17 +9
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
STD.DEV
1000 850 700 500 400 300 250 200 150 100 70 50 30 20 10 5
Pre
ssur
e (h
Pa)
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
BIAS
1000 850 700 500 400 300 250 200 150 100 70 50 30 20 10 5
background departure o-b(ref)background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)
analysis departure o-a
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 26
Forecasts of KatrinaD+108h
T511 L60 T799 L91
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 27
105
1
959
980
980
990
990
990
1000
1000
10001000
1000
100030°N 30°N
90°W
90°W 20050826 00UTC t+72h VT: 20050829 00UTCT511
Hurricane Katrina - MSLP and 3h accum. precipitation
0.5
1
2
5
10
20
40
70
125
200
300
500
1000
T511
Hurricane Katrina at T511 and T799
198
1
921970
980
980
990
990
990
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
30°N 30°N
90°W
90°W 20050826 00UTC t+72h VT: 20050829 00UTCT799
Hurricane Katrina - MSLP and 3h accum. precipitation
0.5
1
2
5
10
20
40
70
125
200
300
500
1000
T799
Observed low of 902hPa
921
959
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 28
IFS Model Run-times on IBM p690+Resolution
& time-step
CPUs Wall time for 1-day forecast
(minutes)
Gflops on IBM p690+
% of Peak*
T511 L60
900 sec
128 7 81 8.4
T799 L91
720 sec
256 16 177 9.1
T1279 L60
450 sec
512 23 354 9.1
T2047 L60
300 sec
768 68 537 9.2
* Peak is 7.6 Gflops per PE for IBM p690+
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 29
Profile for T2047on IBM p690+ (768 CPUs)
Legendre Transforms~17% of total cost of model
Physics ~36% of total cost
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 30
Comparison of profilesat different resolutions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
no
rmal
ized
% c
ost
T511
T799
T1279
T2047
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 31
40km
25km
10km
Spectra of total KE
log10k
k-3
k-5/3
Power spectra of total kinetic energy at T511, T799 & T2047
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 32
Case-study of an event of heavy rainfall (orographically induced) with severe flooding in the South of France in
September 2002(Observed rainfall in excess of 500mm/24h):
Comparison of precipitation forecast (24-48h range) at
T511, T799, T1279 and T2047
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 33
43°N 43°N
44°N44°N
45°N 45°N
3°E
3°E 4°E
4°E 5°E
5°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 1 January 1996 00UTC Surface: geopotential(orography)
500
2500
4500
6500
8500
10500
12500
14500
16500
18500
20500
21310
10.0m/s
43°N 43°N
44°N44°N
45°N 45°N
3°E
3°E 4°E
4°E 5°E
5°E
Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+36 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 00UTC Surface: 10 mtr u/10 mtr v
10m-Wind for the South of France on 9 September 2002 at 0UTC
10m-wind from T204736h-forecast
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 34
Total precipitation accumulated over 24-48h FC-range
30
30
30
30
30
43°N 43°N
44°N44°N
45°N 45°N
3°E
3°E 4°E
4°E 5°E
5°E
Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 12UTC Surface: **large scale precip
30
60
78.52 30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
90
90
43°N 43°N
44°N44°N
45°N 45°N
3°E
3°E 4°E
4°E 5°E
5°E
Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 12UTC Surface: **large scale precip
30
60
90
120
150
150.0
30
30
3030
30
30
30
30
90
90
90
150
150
43°N 43°N
44°N44°N
45°N 45°N
3°E
3°E 4°E
4°E 5°E
5°E
Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 12UTC Surface: **large scale precip
30
60
90
120
150
180
197 30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
90
90
90
150
150
43°N 43°N
44°N44°N
45°N 45°N
3°E
3°E 4°E
4°E 5°E
5°E
Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 12UTC Surface: **large scale precip
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
322.0
T511
T1279
T799
T2047
max ~78mm
max ~150mm
max ~197mm
max ~321mm
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 35
Rainfall Verification over South of Francefor T2047 24-48h forecast
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 36
2000/07/18-2005/02/15 100% extreme rain percentile (1674)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Lead-time (days)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0C
orr
ela
tion
Ski
ll
Z500PT2PPT
Precipitation skill as a function of model resolution
T2047
T1279
T799
T511 (ops)
ACC Z500ACC PT2Station location TP
2000/07/18 – 2005/02/15
Extreme observed rainfall 2002/09/08
H
H
H
L
L
L
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 14 September 2005 00UTC Surface:
Resolution Europe France
T2047 0.56 0.61
T1279 0.52 0.60
T799 0.45 0.55
T511 (op) 0.38 0.41
90% confidence intervals indicated
3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 37
Thank you very muchfor your attention