Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
February 2015 Survey Update
Issued 9th
March 2015
Richard Ramsey Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com [email protected]
Twitter @UB_Economics
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’
Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and
prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents
reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater
the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted
to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages
have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
Global output growth for both manufacturing and services picks up in February to a 5-month high
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
EZ manufacturing & service sector growth picks up with retail & construction still in contraction mode
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services
Construction Retail No Change
Source: Markit Economics Expansion
Contraction
The Eurozone’s composite PMI signals economic growth rate rising in Q1 2015
EZ GDP versus EZ Composite PMIComposite excludes construction
2025303540455055606570
2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52
GDP % Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI
Source: Bloomberg & Markit Economics, * Q1 = Jan & Feb
EZ Q4-14 GDP 0.3%
RoI posts the fastest rate of growth in February followed by the US with the UK in the top five performers
PMIs: Manufacturing Output February 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
AustraliaS.Africa
IndonesiaTurkeyFrance
SwitzerlandN.Zealand*
CanadaGreece
BrazilSingapore
AustriaNI
RussiaChina
EZGermanyS.Korea
IndiaVietnamTaiwan
EUGlobalJapan
NetherlandsItaly
SpainMexico
DenmarkUK
Czech RepublicPoland
USIreland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *January
RoI, UK & NI
€
The Republic of Ireland, US & the UK posted the fastest rates of service sector output growth in February
PMIs: Services Output February 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
RussiaNI
JapanItaly
AustraliaEmerging Markets
ChinaBrazil
FranceEU
IndiaEZ
GlobalDeveloped Markets
GermanySpain
UKUS*
Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
€
Top 4 Eurozone economies simultaneously growing for the first time in 10 months
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Contraction
Expansion
US, EZ & China Composite PMIs posted a pick up in their rates of growth in February. Japan saw growth rate ease
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Eurozone US (Markit) China Japan UK
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US begins Jul-11
ExpansionC
ontraction
The US ISM points to a significant slowdown in manufacturing activity in recent months
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone No Change
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
Diverging performance within Emerging Markets with India & Brazil growing & Russia’s recession deepening
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
Australia’s services & manufacturing sectors on both sides of the 50 threshold in February
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Manufacturing Services No Change
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Contraction
Expansion
NI records its 3rd consecutive month of contraction as it continues to diverge from the UK & RoI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
ExpansionC
ontraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index (combines indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) throughout 2014
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-6-5-4
-3-2-1012
345
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
NICEI Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: DFP NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI,Q2 2014 is latest data for NICEI. *Q1 refers to average of January & February
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI Expansion
ContractionE i
2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity, new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
NI’s recovery took hold in H2 of 2013 with all indicators improving in H1 2014 but easing in H2 2014
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
H220
07H1
2007
H220
08H1
2008
H220
09H1
2009
H220
10H1
2010
H220
11H1
2011
H220
12H1
2012
H220
13H1
2013
H220
14H1
2014
H2
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI has started 2015 on a negative note with output contracting and new orders broadly flat
NI Private Sector ActivityMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
Incoming orders for NI firms slump in H2 with January & February 2015 broadly flat
Private Sector New Orders3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Orders increasing
Orders C
ontracting
Backlogs of work continue to grow in the UK & RoI but NI posts a 5th month of contraction as activity slows
Private Sector Backlogs3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Increasing D
ecreasing
Export orders flat or falling in each of the last 4 months
NI New Export BusinessMonthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
New Export Orders No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Expansion
Contraction
PMI signals the fastest rate of jobs growth in 7 years in Q2 with the pace of job creation easing sharply since
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to average of January & February
Job creation accelerates in February for all 3 economies with NI rebounding after January’s contraction
Private Sector Employment LevelsMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
Inflationary pressures continue to ease with output prices falling
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
Price of goods & services falling
Regional Comparisons
NI was the only UK region to see a contraction in output in February
Output / Business ActivityFebruary 201550 = No change
48.8
50.2
60.5
57.0
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Y&H SE UK Wal NW East SW EM NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Most of the UK regions & the RoI posted strong rates of growth but NI remains at the foot of regional league table
Output / Business Activity 3 months to February 2015
50 = No change
56.5
60.7
48.9
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal SE East UK SW Y&H NW NE EM Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Expansion
Contraction
The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business activity over the last 12 months & Scotland the slowest
Output / Business Activity12 months to February 2015
50 = No change
55.5
57.9
60.3
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
Lon Wal NE SE East WM UK EM Y&H NW SW NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
ExpansionC
ontractionSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Employment on the rise again in NI after January’s decline. RoI continues to report the strongest rates of growth
Employment LevelsFebruary 2015
50 = No change59.4
52.8
56.8
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
WM East SE Lon NW UK EM Y&H Wal SW NE NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI & Scotland post the weakest rates of job creation within the UK over the last 3 months
Employment Levels3 months to January 2015
50 = No change
56.2
50.8
59.2
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East WM Lon UK NW SE Y&H Wal SW EM NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest
Employment Levels 12 months to February 2015
50 = No change
56
57.9
53.4
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East Y&H NW UK Lon WM SE EM SW Wal NI Scot NE RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasingSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Sectoral Comparisons
UK manufacturing & construction sectors report an acceleration in output growth in February
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Services Manufacturing Construction
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
UK posts strong rates of economic growth between Q1- 13 & Q3-14. Growth eased in Q4 but picks up in Q1-15
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMIUK Composite includes Construction
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, *Q1 = average of January & February
RoI output growth across all sectors but a marked slowdown in the pace of growth in construction output
RoI Business Activity - PMIsMonthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
All sector’s experienced weaker growth in the second half of the year relative to H1-14
NI Private Sector Business Activity (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
H220
07H1
2007
H220
08H1
2008
H220
09H1
2009
H220
10H1
2010
H220
11H1
2011
H220
12H1
2012
H220
13H1
2013
H220
14H1
2014
H2
PMI Index
Manufacturing Services Construction Retail ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
All sectors experienced a rapid slowdown in output growth in H2 with services outperforming the other sectors
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output 3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Expansion
Contraction
Services & construction firms reporting reasonable rates of employment growth with manufacturing flat
NI PMI - Employment Index 3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
Manufacturing firms report a sharp slowdown in Q4-14 with signs of stabilisation in Q1-15
NI Manufacturing Activity - PMI3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Grow
th C
ontraction
RoI firms continue to post strong rates of growth in output while NI firms reporting output is broadly flat
Manufacturing Output3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Slowdown in new orders growth is most marked amongst NI manufacturing firms
Manufacturing New Orders3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Until recently, NI had been outperforming most of its European competitors. But is now mid-table
Manufacturing Output - PMI
NI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI France
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
C
ontractionExpansion
Input cost inflation remains at a 6-year low. Output prices have fallen in 8 of the last 10 months
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
PMI signals a moderation in manufacturing employment growth in H2-14 & Q1-15 following record high in Q2
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES**
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to average of January & February
Service sector experiences its first fall (monthly) in orders & output in Feb-15 but jobs growth at 7-mth high
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Grow
th acceleratingC
ontraction accelerating
RoI firms maintain strong rates of output growth but NI firms post their 1st monthly fall in 20 months in February
Services Output (excluding Retail)3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
NI firms reported their first decline (monthly) in 20 months in February
Services New Orders (excluding Retail ) 3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
NI’s services firms still reporting input cost inflation but output prices have fallen in 9 of the last 13 months
NI Services Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
UK, RoI and NI firms all reporting a pick-up in service sector employment growth over the 3 months to Feb-15
Services Employment3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
UK RoI NI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Pace of job creation within the services sector eased in H2-14 but has picked up in Q1-15
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES**
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to average of January & February
NI retailers starting 2015 the way 2014 ended with output & orders contracting at a rapid rate
Northern Ireland Retail PMI3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Expansion
Contraction
Local retailers report heavy discounting with output prices falling at rates seen in mid-2009
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI Profits squeeze
Since Q2-14’s record rates of growth, NI’s construction firms report a significant easing in their rates of growth
NI Construction PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
50 = No change
Input cost inflation remains high but construction firms are at least still able to raise their prices
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-09 May-10 Jul-11 Sep-12 Nov-13 Jan-15
PMI IndexInput Prices Output Prices No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
InflationD
eflation
NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth since Q3 2013 but this is largely due to NI firms working outside of NI
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q3 2010 Q1 2012 Q3 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to average of January & February
Strong rates of output growth amongst UK & RoI firms with NI firms reporting growth albeit at a weaker rate
Construction Sector Output - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
NI orders growth continues to ease from recent record high with RoI growth slowing too. UK firms see growth stabilise
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
Opportunities for NI firms. However, civil engineering activity has slowed in recent months
UK Construction Activity - PMIs3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
…with opportunities within the RoI too
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
ExpansionC
ontraction
50 = No change
Slide 59
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