Christian Gregor DieseldorffSEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group
SEMI Theater at SEMICON West 2010July 14, 2010
Companies Roar Again:Fab Spending andCapacity Trends
Companies Roar Again:Fab Spending andCapacity Trends
2Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Sources and definition
• All numbers (historic and forecast) are fromthe SEMI “World Fab Watch” and “World Fab Forecast”Check for “Fab Database reports”: www.semi.org/fabs
• All forecasts are estimates. Forecasted numbers shown are subject to change. Final numbers are available through one of SEMI’s Fab Database Reports.
• All data refer to Front End Facilities• All capacity numbers are installed capacity in 200mm equivalent wafers
per month (wpm) unless otherwise specified. • All spending numbers are in US$ unless otherwise specified.
3Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Outline
Overview of World Fab Database Reports Construction Projects Equipping Fabs Capacities LEDs Summary
4Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
AcknowledgementGood Times in the Middle of
‘Somewhat More Than Normal Uncertainty’
George BurnsPresident
Strategic Marketing Associates
Quarterly Fab Report, July 2010
“Verify, verify, verify”
I
5Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Overview of World Fab Database Reports Semiconductor Front End Facilities (no Back End, Assembly & Test) Volume production, Pilot, R&D, Consortia Includes: such as EPI Wafer fabs, MEMS fabs, LEDs, Discretes
$ Excel 3 Years of data Forecast (1 ½ years)
Main features: Construction Equipping CapacitiesWafer Sizes Tech Nodes Products
By Fab on quarterly basis
Closed/For Sale
6Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Overview of World Fab Database ReportsAvailable Fab Database Reports
World Fab Forecast (over 1000 records)World Fab Watch (over 1000 records) FabFutures (only fabs with investments) NEW: Opto/LED Fab Watch
Transition Report(Fabs closed, will be closed, for sale etc)
Custom reports such as- Regional Report (NA, China, Japan)- Historic Reports- Product Type- 300mm report- Construction Monitor- Fabs Equipping Monitor
World Fab Forecast May 2010:
Total changes: 299 on 235 fabs New records: 25 Total number of records: 1117 Operational: 994 (Volume: 804) Future Facilities: 69*
Overview and Activity
* Future Facilities with various probabilities
7Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Fab Construction Projects
Fab Construction Projects
8Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Fab Construction Projects:Spending by Region
Spending on Fab construction projects in 2009 was below $1.6 Billion (lowest since at least 1995)
Spending on Construction Projects (Front End)
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
In US$ Million
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Taiwan
SE Asia
S. Korea
Japan
Europe & ME
China
Americas
Change %
9Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Fab Construction Projects:New Facilities Starting Construction
2010: Europe/Mideast: 1
2011:S.Korea: 1
2010: China: 8
2010: Japan: 3
2010: Korea: 2
2010: Taiwan: 4
Probability >60%. Showing: Volume + (R&D/Pilots)
2010: Americas: 3
2010: 21 facilities: Only 9 are Non-Discrete Volume Fabs
IV
10Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Equipping Fabs
Equipping Fabs
Litho3000
11Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Equipping Fabs: Effect of Economy on Forecast
Worldwide Spending on Equipping Fabs All spending related to equipping Front End Facilities (incl Discretes)
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
US$Billion
Begin/m id 2008 Feb 13, 2009
end June 2010US$B US$B
Report date 2009 2010 2009 2010 June 2009 -48% 60%
Aug 2009 -49% 63% Nov 2009 -47% 65% Feb 2010 -45% 88% 14 27
mid May 2010 -45% 117% 14 31end June 2010 -45% 120% 14 32
SEMI World Fab Forecast PredictionsSpending on equipping fabs
12Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Equipping Fabs: Spending by Region
Spending on Front End facilities equipping declined by 46% to about $14B in 2009 - the lowest level since 1994.
Money spent on equipping Front End Facilitiesby Year and by Region
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
US $ Billion
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
Change (YoY)
Taiwan
SE Asia
S. Korea
Japan
Europe &MideastChina
Americas
Change %
13Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Equipping Fabs: Spending vs. Count of Fabs Equipping (including Discretes)
Money spent Equipping Fabs and Count of Fabs equipping
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
US$ Billion
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecas t reports (June 2010)
0
50
100
150
200
250Count of fabs
Spending for EquippingAll300mm200mm
14Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Equipping Fabs: Top SpendersCompanies with about equal or more than $900M equipment spending
Share of total WW
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20119 10 6 3 9 11
Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung SamsungIntel Intel Intel Intel Intel Intel
Hynix Hynix Hynix Hynix HynixTSMC TSMC TSMC TSMC TSMC
Powerchip Powerchip Globalfoundries Globalfoundries Globalfoundries Globalfoundries
Sony Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba
UMC UMC Elpida Elpida Elpida
Micron Micron Micron Micron Micron SMIC NanYa NanYa NanYa
65% 66% 60% 49% 72% 73%
15Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Equipping Fabs: New Facilities Starting Operation (Pilot)
2011: 26Americas: 3 China: 9Europe/Mideast: 4Japan: 2 Korea: 2SE Asia: 2Taiwan: 4
2010: Japan: 3
2010: China: 7
2010: Taiwan: 4
2010: Americas: 32010: Europe/Mideast: 6
2010: 23 (12 are for LEDs, 3-4 for 8-inch, 4-5 for 12-inch)
V
16Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Capacity
Capacity
Artist’s impression
17Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Capacity:Change of Plan
Change of Plan: Installed Capacity Forecast(Volume fabs, without Discretes)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
In millions wafers per month
Source: World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
Aug 2008
Change of Plan: Installed Capacity Forecast(Volume fabs, without Discretes)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
In millions wafers per month
Source: World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
Aug 2008 Sept 2009
Change of Plan: Installed Capacity Forecast(Volume fabs, without Discretes)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
In millions wafers per month
Source: World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
Aug 2008 Sept 2009 June 2010
18Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Worldwide Installed Capacity (without Discretes)
11.8%
7.0% 5.8%
12.7%
1.0%3.4%
9.9%
14.3%14.9%
22.6%20.9%
7.6%
-3.7%
8.3% 7.4%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
In Millions200mm Equivalent
w afers/month
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Change in %
Taiwan
SE As ia
S. Korea
Japan
Europe &Mideas tChina
Am ericas
Change
Capacity: Capacity by Region (without Discretes)
12%2008 to 2011
4%2008 to 2010
Change of CapacityCompare 2010 and
2011 with 2008
10%14%Europe/ME
23%37%Japan
53%22%Asia Pacific
14%27%Americas
20111997Share of Capacity by Region
We have never before seen installed capacity with negative change rate (YoY)!
Worldwide Installed Capacity (without Discretes)
11.8%
7.0% 5.8%
12.7%
1.0%3.4%
9.9%
14.3%14.9%
22.6%20.9%
7.6%
-3.7%
8.3% 7.4%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
In Millions200mm Equivalent
w afers/month
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Change in %
Taiwan
SE As ia
S. Korea
Japan
Europe &MideastChina
Am ericas
Change
19Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Count of Facilities Closed and Starting ProductionFront End Facilities (R&D, Pilot, Volume) with Discretes
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
010203040506070
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)
Number Facilities started vol prod
Number Facilities closed
Capacity: Count of Fabs Starting vs. Closed
Closed in 2009 and 2010: 53Americas: 26China: 2Europe/ME: 10Japan: 13Korea: 2Taiwan: 0
About 22 facilities will close in 2010:8-inch: 6 (1 MPU, 3 Logic)6-inch: 9< 6-inch: 7No Memory facility close in 2010
About 31 facilities closed in 200912-inch: 2 (3 with R&D) (memory)8-inch: 11 (7 for memory)6-inch: 7 (1 for memory)< 6-inch: 9
VI
20Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
LEDs
21Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
LEDsChanging LED Landscape:
3 3 3
6 15 36
1 2 4
7 9 12China
Japan
SKorea 4 8 9
SEAsia 0 0 3
Taiwan 13 22 38
42,219
34
2001
Capacity (in 200mm EQs w/m)
Count Volume fabs
Year (begin operation)
107,288
59
2006
>375,000
105
2011 (est)
Americas Europe/Mideast
22Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Growth rate of capacity for LED dedicated fabs is double digits every year.>40>332218343013102722Change % Capacity
2011201020092008200720062005200420032002Year (begin operation)
MajorMajor PlayersPlayers
Capacity >10k wafers per month (200mm EQs)Capacity >10k wafers per month (200mm EQs)(sorted by capacity in descending order)(sorted by capacity in descending order)
Rohm
Sanken
Epistar
Nichia
In 2007: 4
Osram
Samsung LED
Rohm
LG Innotek
Sanken
Cree
Epistar
Nichia
In 2009: 8
Rohm
Formosa Epitaxy
Sanken
Genesis
Osram
Epistar
LG Innotek
Lextar
Cree
Toyoda Gosei
Samsung :LED
Nichia
In 2011: 12
LEDs:Changing Landscape: LED dedicated Fabs VII
23Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010
Summary Sudden rush of record investments by some companies, with some
companies beginning to invest more in capacity.
Installed Capacity has slow recovery with single digit growth in 2010 and 2011.
2010 Fab investments are still way below the 2006 level (just surpassing 2004).It will take until about 2011 to reach same levels as we had in 2007.
Fabs equipping expected to have spending growth rate of 120% in 2010and 10-20% in 2011. Spending for equipping also still below 2006 level.
New LED fabs pop up like mushrooms: strongest presence in Asia. LED capacity growth for 2010 >35% and 2011 >40%
Good Times in the Middle of‘Somewhat More Than Normal Uncertainty’
George Burns, July 2010