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SECTOR UPDATE REPORT
MNC Sekuritas Research Division October 20, 2017
Please see important disclaimer at the back of this report
Sales in Retail Sectors Remain Weak in 1H17 Bank Indonesia reported that the Real Retail Sales Index grew 6.3% YoY in June 2017, against June 2016's high point of 16.3% YoY. While data on retail sales growth in 2016 stayed in the double-digits, since early 2017 it has slipped to 10% or even below, into single digits. The momentum of a new school year, along with the Idul Fitri festive in 2Q17, distorts consumer priorities; ultimately, retail sales growth in this festive season was not as high as it was in 2016. Risk to Outlook Based on Nielsen Indonesia's research, overall retail sales growth during 1H17 was only 3.7%, while over the previous few years it had recorded double digits for the same period. The closing down of several retail outlets and stagnation of the shopping center occupancy rate is evidence of a slowdown in the industry. Decreasing budgets for consumption, turning to savings and investment, also meant people tended to restrain expenditures. This can be evidenced by the upward trend in deposits of third-party funds (DPK) which rose by 10.29% YoY in June 2017, with a total of Rp 5,045.99 trillion. In our view, the central issue we must be concerned about is the behaviorial shift in shopping patterns of people who were historically generally keen to shop in conventional retail stores, now evolving into a pattern of shopping through online applications: this can be seen either as an opportunity or a threat to retail business. Focus on Efficiency and Innovation In such a current situation of uncertainty, retail business players adopt survival strategies for business sustainability: 1) Closing unproductive stores and focusing on developing productive outlets; 2) transformation strategy, changing the sales format (tenant mix) and shop refreshment; 3) Business development through mini-market concept, 4) Focus on efficiency to manage profitability. Sophisticated development of middle-class society in Indonesia, coupled with the government's policy of eliminating VAT on basic foods, has the potential of stimulating people's purchasing power. NEUTRAL Outlook with Top Picks: ERAA, MAPI and RALS Overall, we believe that the retail industry in Indonesia is experiencing a slowdown due to the decrease in purchasing power, occasioned by factors such as 1) the elimination of an electricity subsidy; 2) reluctance to raise UMR; 3) Idul Fitri momentum, and tight competition among retailers. We think that in the near future retailers will continue to focus on business efficiency and resist excessive expansion in opening new outlets. Taking several of the above factors into account, we recommend NEUTRAL for the retail sector. Nevertheless, we recommend certain preferred stocks, such as ERAA (BUY, TP: Rp1,100) that received a positive catalyst from the government's fight against illegal mobile phones; MAPI (BUY, TP: Rp7,650) able to maintain its operational and fundamental performance and RALS (BUY, TP: Rp1,140) which focuses on improving potential outlets and its ability to maintain margins.
RETAIL SECTOR UPDATE Retail Wars: are The Stores Dead?
Sources: Bloomberg, MNCS Estimate (as of 17 October 2017)
Ticker Market Cap
(Rp bn) P/S (x) PER (x)
Rec. Target Price
(Rp) FY17E FY18F FY17E FY18F
MAPI 10,997.50 0.80 0.63 30.14 21.83 BUY 7,650 MPPA 3,388.12 0.21 0.19 NA 103.57 SELL 550 RALS 6,670.24 1.34 1.01 15.54 13.80 BUY 1,140
ACES 22,037.75 3.70 3.48 28.92 25.45 HOLD 1,220 AMRT 28,444.28 0.51 0.39 43.06 32.03 BUY 780 LPPF 28,230.86 3.34 2.51 13.69 12.57 BUY 11,700
ERAA 2,523.00 0.15 0.10 8.32 7.17 BUY 1,100
Research Analyst
Victoria Venny [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52236
www.mncsekuritas.id MNC Sekuritas 1-500-899 [email protected]
Sector Update Report | MNC Sekuritas Research Division
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Please see important disclaimer at the back of this report
1H17 Retail Sector Sales Remain Weak …
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a strengthening of household consumption, which continues to be the main driver of national economic growth, with a contribution of 55.61% to total GDP in 1H17. Household consumer sector grew 4.95% YoY in 1H17 (vs. 5.07% YoY in 1H16) or below Indonesia's 5.01% economic growth recorded in 1H17.
Exhibit 01. Indonesia’s 1H17 GDP Composition Breakdown
Source : Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Retail industry sales is one of the indicators relied upon to assess the growth of the consumer sector, which we observe is in a significant decline. A survey by Bank Indonesia reports that the Real Retail Sales Index grew 6.3% YoY in June 2017, or lower compared to the June 2016 figure of 16.3% YoY; this is in line with a general weakening of national economic growth (Exhibit 2). Historically, data on retail sales growth in 2016 has always been in the double digits, but since the beginning of 2017, retail sales sank below 10% into single digits. The lowest point occurred in July 2017, where retail sales contracted by 3%, even though they bounced back in August 2017. Sales of basic needs such as foods, beverages and tobacco were observed as stable, but the decline was seen in other components, such as clothing, spare parts, accessories to household appliances (Exhibit 3).
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8,5
16,3
6,3
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
4,85
4,9
4,95
5
5,05
5,1
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15
Mei
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
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t-15
Sep-
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Okt
-15
Nop
-15
Des-
15
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16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
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-16
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6
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t-16
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-16
Nop
-16
Des-
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-17
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17
Mei
-17
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Jul-1
7
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t-17
Sep-
17
GDP Growth (%) Retail Index Growth (% YoY) Festive MomentGDP Retail Index
Exhibit 02. Indonesia’s GDP and Retail Sales Index Growth (% YoY)
Source : Bank Indonesia Survey
55.6%31.4%
8.6%1.3%
3.1%
Private Consumption Fixed Investment Government Spending Net Export-Import Others
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Exhibit 03. Retail Sales Index by Category (% MoM)
Source : Bank Indonesia Survey
In addition, consumer confidence in Indonesia is increasing, although not significantly. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was at a level of 121.9 in August 2017. Consumer confidence was on a high in May 2017, or before Idul Fitri Day, the result of an increase in income and stability of goods and services prices, along with optimism about job availability (Exhibit 4). But the momentum of the new school year started at the same time as the Idul Fitri holiday in 2Q17, and this forced people to prioritize one thing at a time, which ultimately depressed retail sales growth for Idul Fitri (lower compared to 2016).
www.mncsekuritas.id MNC Sekuritas 1-500-899 [email protected]
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Mei-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Agust-17 Sep-17
Food and Beverage Fashion Food and Beverage %MoM Fashion %MoM
Exhibit 04. Consumer Confidence Index 2017
Source : Bank Indonesia Survey
115.5
117.1
121.5
123.7
125.9
122.4123.4
121.9
Januari Februari Maret April Mei Juni Juli Agustus
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Exhibit 05. Trade Channel Growth (1H16 vs 1H17)
Source : PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)
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A Bank Indonesia Survey estimates that there are pressures to increase prices at the retail level until November 2017, as reflected in the next 3 months’ Price Expectation Price Index of 145.0, higher than the 135.5 recorded the previous month. On the other hand, the Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs Association (Aprindo) predicts the growth rate of retailers will be at a level of 7%-9% by the end of 2017. We see the usual peak consumption during the new school year and Idul Fitri festivities has ended so it looks problematical for retailers to stimulate sales.
The slowdown of the retail sector is also reflected in a weakening trend of trade distribution channels, both modern and traditional (Exhibit 5). Modern trade channels only grew by 4.8% YTD in June 2017, or lower compared to 11.4% YTD in June 2016, followed by a 7% growth in mini-markets in June 2017 (vs. 18.0% in June 2016).
… and slow growth in 2H17 is predicted to linger
Current retail business conditions are very different from those of previous years. Based on Nielsen Indonesia's calculations, overall retail sales growth during 1H17 was only 3.7%, whereas it recorded double digits for the same period in recent years. The reality in 1H17 was that many closings of retail outlets were the result of a lack of patrons and a significant decline in revenue. The closing of several retail stores, such as Glodok Shopping Center, 7 Eleven, Ramayana and Matahari Department Store stands as proof that retail conditions in Indonesia are currently in a vulnerable and unstable condition (Exhibits 6-9). PT Modern Internasional Tbk (MDRN) officially closed all of its 7 Elevens in June 2017 – a total of 175 outlets. Meanwhile, PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS) closed eight of its supermarket stores in August 2017, followed by the closure of two PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (LPPF) outlets, one each in Pasaraya Blok M and Manggarai, Jakarta.
Is the Closing of Outlets Fallout from Low Public Purchasing Power?
10.211.4
9.4
3.74.8
2.9
Indonesia Modern Trade Traditional Trade
1H16 1H17
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Exhibit 06. Stores Closing at Glodok Trading Center, Jakarta
Source : Kompas
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The overall occupancy rate of shopping centers in Jabodetabek has been confirmed as stagnant, at 80% for the last five years, while high-end premium consumer class rate shopping centers have been able to maintain a 97% level for several years. This is however inversely proportional to the occupancy rate of lower-middle-class shopping centers, showing a downward trend of nearly 70% (Exhibit 10). Meanwhile, the average rental rate for shopping centers in Jakarta increased by 3% YTD to Rp599,335/sqm/month in 2Q17. This growth was lower than for the same period in 2016. Based on the class of consumer, the growth of rental rates in upper-middle-class shopping centers has been higher. Average rental rates for upscale shopping centers grew 18% YTD to Rp798,604/sqm/month in 2Q17, while middle-to-lower class shopping centers focused more on increasing their rate of occupancy; thus the trend of rental rates for this segment has been stagnant (Exhibit 11).
Stagnation of Shopping Center Occupancy Rates
Exhibit 07. The Closing of 7 Eleven Store
Source : Kompas
… Glodok Shopping Center looks deserted because of the number of shops that have shut down
... On June 30, 2017, 7-Eleven closed all outlets in Indonesia, explaining that sales did not reach targeted numbers; as of March 2017, the Company reported a loss of Rp447.93 billion to the owners.
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Exhibit 08. The Closing Ramayana Supermarket Store
Source : CNN News
www.mncsekuritas.id MNC Sekuritas 1-500-899 [email protected]
... Ramayana closed 8 of its supermarket outlets; however, this did not signify operations were shutting down, but rather the sales format was to convert to fashion outlets
Exhibit 09. Multiple Matahari Department Store
Source : Kompas
Exhibit 11. Average Asking Rents in Jakarta, Based on Grade of Mall
Source : Colliers International Indonesia - Research 2Q17
Exhibit 10. Occupancy in Jakarta, Based on Grade of Mall
Source : Colliers International Indonesia - Research 2Q17
... before officially ceasing operations, Matahari Department Store in Pasaraya Blok M offered deep discounts on remaining merchandise
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Elimination of Electricity Subsidies Undercut Purchasing Power
Exhibit 12. Increase in Electricity Rate: Rp/Kwh to 900 Va
Source : Permen ESDM 28/2016, MNC Sekuritas
The government decided to gradually withdraw electricity subsidies from 19.0 million households with 900 Volt Ampere (VA) installed, from January 2017. This revocation was scheduled for three phases, starting from January 2017 and then continuing in March and May. We appraise this policy as having the potential to degrade people's purchasing power, as their monthly expenditures will rise, with less discretionary income for consumption. This elimination of these subsidies was justified as allowing the allocation of state funds to more productive sectors, such as health, education and infrastructure.
Unequal Rise in Compensation
Another cause of shrinking purchasing power of the lower-middle-class is Government Regulation No. 78 year 2015, which confines annual minimum wage rate increases. In our opinion, this minimum wage increase is only adjusted for inflation and national economic growth, without considering the increase in the price of goods due to a domino effect (removal of fuel and electricity tariff subsidies). Based on data from BPS, the effective increase of UMR from 2015-2017 is steadily declining, a trend which will of course further reduce the public’s disposable income.
Exhibit 13. Indonesia’s UMR Growth in 2012-2017
Source : Statistics Indonesia (BPS), MNC Sekuritas
989 1.089
1.297
1.584 1.790
1.998 2.163
10,1%
19,1%22,2%
13,0%11,6%
8,3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
UMR (Rp thousand) UMR's growth
605
791
1,034
1,352
2016 Januari Maret Mei
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Changing Behavior Pattern: More Savings and Investment
Exhibit 14. Increased Savings in 2017
Source : OJK, MNC Sekuritas
In our view, one of the causes of declining retail sales is a diversion of discretionary income from consumption into increased savings and investment. This can be verified by looking at increasing third-party-fund deposits (DPK), which strengthened 10.29% YoY in June 2017, to a total of Rp 5,045.99 trillion. In addition, public awareness of the importance of investment also increased, as can be observed by the increasing interest of upper-middle-class citizens in becoming investors. According to OJK, the number of mutual fund investors rose by 536,150 per July 2017, compared to 2015, which added just 116% (247,982 investors).
Will the Retail Sector ever Revive?
It should be acknowledged that while the retail industry is currently under pressure, in our opinion and from an investment point of view, retail is still attractive and has room to grow. The fact is that retail industry profits continued to increase from 2015-2017.
Exhibit 15. Retail Industry Profits, 2015-2017
Source : Indonesia Investment, MNC Sekuritas
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jun-16 Jun-17
Third Party Funds (IDR Trilion) Third Party Funds Growth
181 200 225
1,209 1,300
1,401
2015 2016 2017
in trilion Rupiah Retail Industry Profits F&B Industry Sales
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Exhibit 16. Prediction of Increasing Number of Middle Class Citizens in Indonesia 2012 vs 2020
Source : BCG (Finance Ministry’s Education and Training)
Further, a growing middle class in Indonesia will potentially have increased purchasing power. According to the Alvara Research Center (2016) the middle class is an engine of growth, as its high purchasing power can function as an economic driver of the consumer sector. Middle and upper-middle classes are predicted to grow by 113% and 64%, from 2012 to 2020 (Exhibit 16).
Key Innovation Idea: Shifting to Small Convenience Stores!
Information: • Elite : Monthly expenditures greater than Rp 7,500,000 • Affluent : Monthly expenditures between Rp 5,000,000 - RP 7,500,000 • Upper Middle : Monthly expenditures between Rp 3,000,000 - Rp 5,000,000 • Middle : Monthly expenditures between Rp 2,000,000 - Rp 3,000,000 • Emerging Middle : Monthly expenditures between Rp 1,500,000 - Rp 2,000,000 • Aspirant Middle : Monthly expenditures between Rp 1,000,000 - Rp 1,500,000 • Poor Middle : Monthly expenditures less than Rp 1,000,000
2.56.6
23.2
41.6 44.4
65.4 64.5
6.9
16.5
49.3
68.2
50.5 47.9
28.3
Elite affluent upper middle middle emerging middle
aspirant poor
Thousand People 2012 2020
In response to depressed public purchasing power, retailers need to implement a business strategy that can support their sustainability. According to a Groedu International Consultant strategy, retail sales can be boosted through a ‘5R Merchandising Strategy’: Right merchandise, Right price, Right place, Right amount of merchandise (right quantity) and the Right time. This strategy is offered in the attempt to improve the competitiveness of retail businesses. One example of the strategy implemented by retailers is to shut down unproductive stores, such as has been implemented by PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (LPPF) and instead focus on developing productive outlets. PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) radically revised their sales format by closing 8 of their supermarket outlets, replacing them with a department store format, while PT Hero Supermarket Tbk (HERO) innovated by developing the concept of a ‘Minimarket Giant Mart’ to be closer to the community.
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Exhibit 17. Frequency of Visits
Source : Nielsen,2Q17
The shifting from a supermarket business model to a mini-market one has emerged as a prime retailer strategy for maintaining growth. According to Nielsen, the growth trend of the number of consumer visits to mini-markets is higher than the growth trend of the number of consumer visits to supermarkets, even as the number of visits to traditional markets is trending downward (Exhibit 16). This shows that there is a shifting pattern of foot traffic, from Modern Hypermarket stores and Supermarkets as a routine shopping destination to a Mini-Market concept store which is closer to their residences.
Focus on Efficiency to Manage Profitability
With the slowdown of the retail sector, some retailers have implemented an efficiency strategy in the hope their business can continue to run normally. Based on the Association of Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs (Aprindo), efficiency is implemented as a result of slow growth of the retail business in 2016. This means reducing operational costs such as cutting down on air conditioning, using electric LED lights, and fewer working hours or a smaller number of employees. Fewer air conditioners or replacing lamps with LED lights will save on the cost of electricity used, as this is one of the largest operational expenditures. Through applying efficiency, financial performance has the potential to improve. One example of companies that augment efficiency this way is Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (Alfmart).
3 2
6
25
14
21
2 2
8
23
15
22
2 3
9
21
15
25
Hypermarket Supermarket Minimarts Traditional Groceries
Wet Market Vegetable Vendor
in Times in A Month 2015 2016 2017
Supported by Govt Policy to Wipe Out VAT on Primary Products
The Government has decided to abolish value added tax (VAT) on certain basic needs as stipulated in Minister of Finance Regulation No. 116 / PMK.010 / 2017. A total of 13 commodities are subject to the abolition of VAT: rice, grain, corn, sago, soybeans, salt, meat, eggs, milk, fruits, and vegetables. This policy has the potential of increasing people's purchasing power in the real sector.
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Exhibit 18. Internet User Prediction 2014-2019 in Indonesia (in millions)
Source : Statita (2016) in Alvara Research Center (2016)
A survey conducted by the Association of Internet Network Providers Indonesia (APJII) found that in 2016 as many as 132.7 million people in Indonesia were connected to the internet, out of a total population of 256.2 million. This indicates a 52% internet penetration in Indonesia. According to Nielsen in their 2Q17 report, as many as 38% of internet users in Indonesia are online shoppers. Thus, an increasing number of internet users have the potential to grow retail business on line: in the 2017 Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), Indonesia is already in eighth position.
Currently there is a shift in shopping pattern behavior of those who were formerly keen to shop in bricka & mortar retail stores; now they are tending to shop through internet applications (online stores). To cope with this, some retail companies are trying to grasp the opportunity to engage their own online retail business: PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI), PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT), PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (ACPF), PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES ) and PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS). Changes in the shopping behavior of people can be seen from spending on secondary products, especially electronics. The underlying reason for such shifts in behavior is lower prices and practicality in purchases. Here is an example of a price comparison of Samsung Galaxy 8: consumers can buy one online for Rp 8,390,000, which is 13% lower than one than a store purchase, at Rp 9,499,000.
Revolutionary Transformation to E-Commerce: Threat or Opportunity?
Exhibit 19. Online Price Comparison Samsung Galaxy 8
Source : www.pricebook.co.id
84 93
103 113
123 134
2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*
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Exhibit 20. E-commerce Sales Growth in Indonesia (USD Billion)
Source : e-Market (B2C E-commerce Climbs Worldwide, as Emerging Markets Drive Sales Higher)
Indonesia is one of the largest e-commerce markets in ASEAN. Indonesian e-commerce is predicted to continue to grow rapidly, supported by the entry of foreign investors who are pushing their way into Indonesia. In 2017, Alibaba (Asian e-commerce giant) invested in Tokopedia, a local e-commerce firm. Alibaba has also invested, in Lazada e-commerce. We see an injection of funds from foreign sources will boost the extension of Indonesian e-commerce out to remote areas not served by bricks & mortar outlets. Three types of goods generally purchased online today are fashion, electronics and airline tickets. We assess the development of e-commerce as not boomeranging on the retail sector in the near future, as there are still many more practical products to be purchased at conventional outlets, such as staple goods and goods with specific requirements. However, clothing and electronic product shops will have difficulty in competing with e-commerce outlets.
Stock Market Cap
(IDR bn) Revenue Operating profit Net Profit
YoY 15 YoY 16 Yoy 17 YoY 15 YoY 16 Yoy 17 YoY 15 YoY 16 Yoy 17
ACES 19,293.75 2.20% 5.29% 18.05% -8.35% 0.15% 39.44% 1.14% -4.04% 37.64%
AMRT 29,482.40 14.65% 21.48% 13.58% 4.30% 2.44% 12.70% -57.16% 76.40% -16.38%
HERO 5,020.36 11.35% -0.51% -3.86% 803.99% -32.15% -70.02% -133.34% -163.01% 258.65%
LPPF 28,887.39 17.78% 32.10% 10.76% 24.52% 70.47% 14.92% 79.08% 78.63% 15.64%
MAPI 11,412.50 10.91% 9.15% 15.80% -36.06% 81.92% 58.82% -67.82% 38.84% 278.01%
MPPA 3,361.23 6.65% 1.39% -3.36% -11.54% -86.40% -669.11% -13.61% -100.30% -32,022.37%
RALS 6,812.16 -4.81% 24.87% 9.79% -72.79% 1162.30% 61.07% -11.87% 179.72% 45.16%
ERAA 2,364.50 28.95% 19.33% 6.70% 0.43% 12.70% -3.26% -2.22% 14.50% 10.35%
Exhibit 21. Retail Financial Performance
Source : Bloomberg, as of September 22, 2017
Most retail business performance in Indonesia in 1H17 continues to record positive growth (Exhibit 20), with a new school year and Idul Fitri helping publicly-listed retail companies push topline growth, maintain margins and stimulate bottomline growth in 1H17.
0.56
1.04
1.79
2.6
3.56
4.49
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Exhibit 22. Retail Sector Revenue 2011-2016
Source : Bloomberg, MNC Sekuritas
The improvement in performance was led by MAPI, with a 15.64% increase in revenue, an increase in operating profit of 58.82%, and 278.01% higher net profit. The second-largest increase was ACES, with an increase of 18.05% in revenue, followed by an increase in operating profit of 39.44%, and a 37% increase in net profits. The first semester, RALS experienced revenue growth of 9.79% with a 61.07% increase in operating profits and a 45.16% rise in net profit, while LPPF recorded an increase in revenue of 10.76%, with operating profit 14.92% higher and a 15.64% increase in net profit.
MAPI Leading the Race to Growth Profitability while ...
Against retail business players who recorded positive performance, HERO and MPPA stalled. MPPA recorded revenue down -3.36%, with a negative SSSG growth rate, followed by a decline in operating profit of -669.11% and a significant decrease in net profit. HERO revenue dropped -3.86%, with operating profit off -70.02% - but a rise in net profit of 258.65%, thanks to a significant reduction in financial costs. AMRT saw growth in operating income and profit of 13.58% and 12.70%, respectively, but net profit off -16.38%, the victim of increased sales and financial expenses.
… HERO, MPPA and AMRT still Stuck in the Red Line
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
ACES RALS LPPF MPPA HERO MAPI AMRT
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Exhibit 23. Retail Sector Sales Growth 2012-2016
Source : Bloomberg, MNC Sekuritas
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
ACES AMRT HERO LPPF MAPI MPPA RALS
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Exhibit 24. Retail Sector Estimate
Source : Bloomberg, MNCS Estimate
Overall, we believe that the retail industry in Indonesia is experiencing a slowdown due to the decrease in public purchasing power caused by several factors, such as 1) the elimination of electricity subsidy; 2) suppression of UMR increase; 3) Idul Fitri momentum and tight competition among retailers. We think that in the near future retailers will still focus on business efficiency and resist excessive expansion in the opening of new outlets. Taking into several factors above, we recommend NEUTRAL to the retail sector. Nevertheless, we still recommend some preferred stocks such as ERAA (BUY, TP: Rp1,100) that get a positive catalyst from the government's fight against illegal mobile phones; MAPI (BUY, TP: Rp7,650) that able to maintain its operational and fundamental performance and RALS (BUY, TP: Rp1,140) which focused on improving potential outlets and ability to maintain margin.
NEUTRAL Outlook with Top Picks: ERAA, MAPI and RALS
Ticker Market Cap
(Rp bn) P/S (x) PER (x)
Rec. Target Price
(Rp) FY17E FY18F FY17E FY18F
MAPI 10,997.50 0.80 0.63 30.14 21.83 BUY 7,650 MPPA 3,388.12 0.21 0.19 NA 103.57 SELL 550 RALS 6,670.24 1.34 1.01 15.54 13.80 BUY 1,140
ACES 22,037.75 3.70 3.48 28.92 25.45 HOLD 1,220 AMRT 28,444.28 0.51 0.39 43.06 32.03 BUY 780 LPPF 28,230.86 3.34 2.51 13.69 12.57 BUY 11,700
ERAA 2,523.00 0.15 0.10 8.32 7.17 BUY 1,100
Exhibit 25. ERAA’s PS Band
Source : Bloomberg
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
Sep-
14O
kt-1
4
Nop
-14
Des
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15M
ei-1
5
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Agus
t-15
Sep-
15O
kt-1
5
Nop
-15
Des
-15
Jan-
16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6
Apr-
16M
ei-1
6
Jun-
16Ju
l-16
Agus
t-16
Sep-
16O
kt-1
6N
op-1
6D
es-1
6
Jan-
17
Feb-
17M
ar-1
7
Apr-
17M
ei-1
7
Jun-
17Ju
l-17
Agus
t-17
Sep-
17
PS Ratio mean std-1 std-2 std+1 std+2
Sector Update Report | MNC Sekuritas Research Division
Page 15
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Exhibit 26. MAPI’s PS Band
Source : Bloomberg, MNCS Estimate
NEUTRAL Outlook with Top Picks: ERAA, MAPI and RALS
Exhibit 27. RALS’s PS Band
Source : Bloomberg, MNCS Estimate
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
Sep-
14
Okt
-14
No
p-14
Des
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Mei
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-
15
Agus
t-15
Sep-
15
Okt
-15
No
p-15
Des
-15
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
Mei
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-
16
Agus
t-16
Sep-
16
Okt
-16
No
p-16
Des
-16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17M
ar-1
7
Apr
-17
Mei
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-
17
Agus
t-17
Sep-
17
PS Ratio Mean STD-1 std-2 std+1 std+2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
Sep-
14
Okt
-14
Nop
-14
Des
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15
Mei
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Agu
st-1
5
Sep-
15
Okt
-15
Nop
-15
Des
-15
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr-
16
Mei
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Agu
st-1
6
Sep-
16
Okt
-16
Nop
-16
Des
-16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr-
17
Mei
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Agu
st-1
7
Sep-
17
PS Ratio Mean STD-1 std-2 std+1 std+2
MNC SEKURITAS RESEARCH TEAM
Edwin J. Sebayang Head of Retail Research, Technical, Auto, Mining [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52233
I Made Adi Saputra Head of Fixed Income Research [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52117
Disclaimer This research report has been issued by PT MNC Sekuritas, It may not be reproduced or further distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. PT MNC Sekuritas has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; PT MNC Sekuritas makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility to liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expression of opinion herein are those of the research department only and are subject to change without notice. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any investment. PT MNC Sekuritas and its affiliates and/or their offices, director and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. PT MNC Sekuritas and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting position in the securities of companies discusses herein (or investment related thereto) and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies.
Page 16
Sector Update Report | MNC Sekuritas Research Division
Victoria Venny Telco, Toll Road, Logistics, Consumer, Poultry [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52236
Rr. Nurulita Harwaningrum Banking, Auto, Plantation [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52237
Krestanti Nugrahane Widhi Research Associate, Plantation, Consumer [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52166
Sukisnawati Puspitasari Research Associate, Cement, Mining [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52307
Thendra Crisnanda Head of Institutional Research, Strategy [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52162
Gilang Anindito Property, Construction, Mining, Media [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52235
Rheza Dewangga Nugraha Junior Analyst of Fixed Income [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52294
MNC Research Investment Ratings Guidance BUY : Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
HOLD : Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% of the next 12 months SELL : Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated : Stock is not within regular research coverage
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Gilang Ramadhan Manager Equity Trader [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52178
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