Scenarios - a helpful backdrop to China 2.0?
Graham Kill Irdeto CEO 24 May 2010
1
Irdeto – a global media technology company
Naspers FY09:
• Revenue ZAR 27B ($3.4B)
• Op Profit ZAR 5B ($0.6B)
• 2.5M subscribers
Irdeto:
• Secures 45% Naspers revenue
• 900 people, 26 countries
• Dual HQ - NL and PRC
MEDIA 1.0 MEDIA 2.0 MEDIA 3.0
Media 3.0 – powered by broadband
Traditional media Advertisers and content Consumers New Media
Media 3.0 – focus on the individual
Convergence of Video, Data and Voice Services
All services billed on a single bill
Introduction of the PVR.
Time shifting starts
Customers want access to their
content no matter where
they are.
Place shifting starts
Focus shifts from
Households to Individuals.
Targeted experience
starts
Channels no longer sold individually
Channel bundling starts
BUSINESS FOCUS
ANY… THING + HOW + TIME + WHERE + ONE
TIMEFRAME 1985-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
Stories that could happen & surprise us
The trick is not to ask if they will happen but,
What we do if this happens?
Challenge our assumptions They help us prepare for the
unthinkable
Scenarios are meant to
Generic scenarios for Media 3.0
World of proprietary technologies and controlled access by powerful middlemen using their controlled networks
Advertising and data exchange to access content via powerful middlemen
World of DRM and Content ecosystems
Artists in charge via an open web without proprietary controlling technologies
FREE FOR ALL
STRINGS ATTACHED
VALUE FOR MONEY
SOMETHING FOR NOTHING
Irdeto scenarios 2004
10Mbps and 20% : game changing speed and penetration
- Social Networking - Low quality video/TV - Basic video chat - Small files shared - SD IPTV
10Mb/s down / 5Mb/s up Low latency
- Video networking - Large files shared - High Definition video/TV
2008 to 2009 big step in quality in a number of countries to be ready for tomorrow
Source: Irdeto and Broadband Leadership Quality Study 2009, Said School of Business, Oxford University
CO
MP
THR
EAT
TO
INC
UM
BEN
TS
4G O
FFER
S LE
AP-
FR
OG
O
PPO
RTU
NIT
Y
How divided is the Digital Divide?
Source: The Broadband Quality Index 2009, Said Business School, Oxford and Research World, Issue 19, April 2010
BB leaders have government backed strategies to invest in infrastructure, e.g. Japan, Sweden
Penetration (% Households)
100= BQS ACTUAL
VALUE 66
BQ
S (N
orm
aliz
ed)
BRICs catching up fast: Brazil : 66M users – average 44 hours use/month - higher than the US, Japan and Australia
Developing nations move to mobile BB due to lack of infrastructure
Turning the world inside out?
Changes (Technology + Audience Behavior) = Different future value chain
Digital Assets
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS
Content Provision
Aggregation
Distribution Fixed and mobile
networks
Internet based
Source: Ofcom, “Entertainment in the UK in 2028” modified by Irdeto
AUDIO etc.. NEWS VIDEO
RADIO etc..
NEWS PAPERS TV
Digital assets
Strings Attached
Value for money
Free for All
Something for nothing
An Explosion of Choice Power blocks forming around DRM to
balance consumer power around “free”
Hybrid services position themselves as legal alternatives for “free” with premium content paid for e.g Voddler -
video version of Spotify
Service innovation to retain customers. Sports makes the
business tick.
Free for all mainly FTV catch-up
services, UGC, or pirate
A vital part of the consumer’s connected day