S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.University of Alaska-Anchorage * College of Business & Public Policy
* Marketing Management Simulation *
Course Intro & Overview
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
Professor Ed Forrest
• Telephone:
(cell) 854-8784
• Email:
ejforrest@ uaa.alaska.edu
THE CAPSTONE SIMULATION
• Adopted by major Adopted by major FortuneFortune 500500 companies companies
..General Motors, General ..General Motors, General Electric, Honeywell, Electric, Honeywell,
Dell, John Deere, Dell, John Deere, Citibank, Alcoa, BP, Citibank, Alcoa, BP, Allstate, Samsung, Allstate, Samsung,
Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft…Microsoft…
Most widely used Business – Most widely used Business – Simulation Program in the WorldSimulation Program in the World
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
Strategic Thinking
the ten big the ten big ideasideas
Strategic Thinking
the ten big the ten big ideasideas
•Simulation proffers you opportunity to experience
every key dimension of strategic thinking developed to
date:
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
7. Corporate culture- corporate behavior, and in particular the resistance of the organization to change, is inevitably a function of its culture
(Prof Thomas/ Penn St. able to predict final standings w/in 1 place
90% of time –after observing initial group interaction)
8. Leadership craft- Leaders responsible for assuring strategy links values of firm with its vision & that firm can successfully implement strategy thru effective HR mgt.
Strategic Thinking- the ten big ideas
Strategic Thinking- the ten big ideas
Today- Form Your CompanyToday- Form Your Company Today- Form Your CompanyToday- Form Your Company
Today – Begin Analysis of Your SituationToday – Begin Analysis of Your SituationToday – Begin Analysis of Your SituationToday – Begin Analysis of Your Situation
1. Long-range planning- considers the external factors that affect success & integrates the various functional strategies.
2. Strategic analysisMarket segmentation The lifecycle. SWOT analysis. Industry structure
Strategic Thinking- the ten big ideas
Strategic Thinking- the ten big ideas
• Moderate growth, Low inflation, Averaged interest rates
• No outside competitors or product substitutes
• No economic downturns or other surprises ...
• Moderate growth, Low inflation, Averaged interest rates
• No outside competitors or product substitutes
• No economic downturns or other surprises ...
Economic Environment
Whatever happens will be result of
your-tactical execution of
strategies… not by external factors!
Sim designed this way for one reason:
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
Concepts & Processes Equally Applicable
If Simulation Service Based:
• Instead of Sensors Sold--Units of Production=– Meals served– Seats sold– Rooms rented– Patients seen– Members joined– Lawns cut
0%
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%of GNP
1850 1950 2050
AgricultureManufacturingServices
0%
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%of GNP
1850 1950 2050
AgricultureManufacturingServices
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T. If you want Lectures:
• Foundations of Business Strategy
• Coursera
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
FinanceFinance
ProductionProduction
HRHRR&DR&D
MarketingMarketing
YOUR JOB:• Make every Make every
decisiondecision
• In every In every Functional Functional DomainDomain
• toto create, create, produce & produce & successfully successfully market your market your products… products…
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
…success contingent on strategic integration of decisions across all domains
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
You will Compete against other members of this class –running 5 other Corp’s ….
• AndrewsAndrews
• BaldwinBaldwin
• Chester Chester
• DigbyDigby
• ErieErie
• FerrisFerris
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
Plus…
your decisions & business performance will be compared against 1000+ other teams competing at other universities… around the world
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
& How –to date--& How –to date--have we fared in have we fared in this World-Wide this World-Wide Competition??Competition??
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T. 2001 Top Ten Teams, World-Wide, for Round 8
• Top Ten Teams, World-Wide, for Round 8 by success measurement There are currently 940 active teams that have played Round 8. For a team to make this list: Cumulative Profits above 0 Overall Market Share (in dollars) greater then 5.0% Asset Turnover less then 8.0 Profit for Round 8 Round 8 - Mean - $ 25,324,003
• Top Ten Active Teams Professor School/Course Simid Team Value
• 11 Dr. Minu Afza College of Business - Bloomsburg University93 481 Business Policy & Strategy CAP1742 Digby $ 238,235,245 2 2 Mr. Bill Gardner Penn State University -Fayette CampusContemporary Business Seminar CAP1513 Andrews $ 193,853,427 33 Dawn DeTienne University of Colorado at BoulderSenior Seminar CAP1656 Andrews $ 184,258,599 4 4 Prof. Howard Feldman University of PortlandManagerial Decisions and Policy-Undergrad B CAP1787 Erie $ 181,422,390
55 Dr. Ed Forrest University of AlaskaUniversity of AlaskaMarketing Management CAP1611 Baldwin $ 163,281,864 Marketing Management CAP1611 Baldwin $ 163,281,864 6 6 Dr. Eric Wiseman University of Colorado at BoulderBusiness Senior Seminar CAP1818 Chester $ 157,930,382 77 Dr. Murrow Drury CollegeStrategy and Policy Formulation CAP1838 Erie $ 149,235,238 8 8 Dr. Pettus Millikin UniversityBusiness Policy CAP1748 Baldwin $ 147,967,873 9 9 Doug Mayer Hartwick CollegeManagement VII-secA CAP1811 Digby $ 137,339,216 1010 Dr. Bruce A. Schooling Point Loma Nazarene UniversityStrategic Management CAP1794 Digby $ 121,289
5th
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
2003 Top Ten Teams, World-Wide @Rnd 8
• For a team to make this list: Cumulative Profits above 0 Overall Market Share (in dollars) greater than 6% Asset Turnover less then 8.0 Your class was ranked: with 711 Capstone ® teams completing round 8 by Apr 12, 2003. teams per game of 6 Category: All
• URL: http://www.capsim.com/prof/viewtopten.cfm?round=8&simid=C4806&version=KDate/Time: 04/12/2003 10:07:35eNote:
• Text:Cumulative Profit for Round 8 - Mean - $ 125,355,000 Top Ten Active Teams Professor School/Course Simid Team Value 1 natalie marsh Strayer UniversityBusiness Policy & Strategic Planning C4779 Baldwin $ 459,411,986 2 John Hall University of FloridaGlobal Strategic Management I2MBA 2002 C4923 Baldwin $ 386,472,583 3 natalie marsh Strayer UniversitySenior Seminar - Business Administration C4778 Erie $ 382,697,422 4 Peter Stanwick Auburn UniversityStrategic Management C5095 Chester $ 353,185,127 5 John Pearce Villanova UniversityPolicy Administration C5033 Ferris $ 348,535,130 6 Gavin Fox Georgia Southern UniversityBUSINESS SIMULATION C5041 Digby $ 343,761,703 7 Shirley Schooley Birmingham-Southern CollegeStrategic Management Senior Project Course Sec B C5356 Digby $ 341,865,002 8 natalie marsh Strayer UniversitySenior Seminar - Business Administration C4778 Ferris $ 339,568,171
99 Edward Forrest University of AlaskaUniversity of AlaskaMarketing Management C4806 Chester $ 333,620,198Marketing Management C4806 Chester $ 333,620,198 10 Donald Kreps Kutztown Universitymba capstone C4797 Digby $ 327,188,363
9th
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T. Fall13 UAA-CBPP students —out of 1,089 teams competing #4 in & # 10 in profit #5 in Stock Price #6 in ROE #3 & #7 in ROA #8 in Asset Turnover
Your Industry C58880 was ranked: · with 1089 Capstone teams· completing round 8· by Nov 22, 2013.
Profit for Round 8 - Mean - $ 20,919,310
Top Ten Active Teams
Professor School/Course Simid Team Value
1 Robert WoodwardCapsim Management Simulations - MainEthics C58086 Andrews $ 508,976,902
2 LaKami BakerAuburn University - MainStrategic Management C59204 Digby $ 158,606,060
3 William WorthingtonBaylor University - MainStrategic Management C58893 Ferris $ 139,469,157
4 Edward ForrestUniversity of Alaska - MainMarketing Management C58879 Erie $ 134,385,883
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T. Your Industry C65757 was ranked:with 1057 Capstone teams
completing round 8 - by Nov 21, 2014
Your Industry C65757 was ranked: with 1057 Capstone teams completing round 8 by Nov 21, 2014.
ROE for Round 8 - Mean - - 3.63%
Top Ten Active Teams
Professor School/Course Simid Team Value
1 Peter HosieCurtin Business School - MainBentley (Sem 2-2014) C64703 Baldwin 268.30%
2 Edward Forrest
University of Alaska- Anchorage - MainMarketing Management C65757 Ferris 252.05%
3 James BelohlavDePaul University - MainManagement Strategy--Evening C65729
Andrews 160.99%
4 Anne WoolstenhulmeBrigham Young University - MainStrategic Management - 002 C67336 Baldwin 156.23%
5 Craig Citron
Southern Connecticut State University - MainMG450 C66602 Erie 153.28%
6 Jason HarkinsUniversity of Maine - MainStrategic Management C66183 Baldwin 133.31%
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
#1 Fall 2014
Cumulative Profit for Round 8 - Mean - $ 57,143,445
Top Ten Active Teams
Professor School/Course Simid Team Value
1 Edward ForrestUniversity of Alaska-Anchorage - MainManagement Simulation C65883 Chester $ 423,479,998
2 Montchai PinitjitsamutKasetsart University - MainAgStrategy1 C63414 Erie $ 379,323,878
3 Erin NelsonDePaul University - MainGSB 599 C66845 Erie $ 369,501,687
4 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- C C65322 Chester $ 332,453,310
5 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- A C65316 Baldwin $ 317,334,112
6 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- C C65324 Chester $ 309,297,102
7 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- A C65318 Chester $ 290,130,349
8 Veer MehtaSCMHRD ExEd - MainSCMHRD ExEd C67080 Baldwin $ 287,625,419
9 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- A C65316 Ferris $ 269,713,684
10 David BrokawUIndy - CarmelMBA 690 - Strategic Analysis - Wednesday C66529 Digby $ 265,975,495
13 Edward ForrestUniversity of Alaska-Anchorage - MainManagement Simulation C65883 Digby $ 253,412,984
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
#1 Fall 2014Profit for Round 8 - Mean - $ 16,856,185
Top Ten Active Teams
Professor School/Course Simid Team Value
1 Edward ForrestUniversity of Alaska-Anchorage - MainManagement Simulation C65883 Chester $ 179,894,270
2 Montchai PinitjitsamutKasetsart University - MainAgStrategy1 C63414 Erie $ 150,718,034
3 Erin NelsonDePaul University - MainGSB 599 C66845 Erie $ 117,376,727
4 Veer MehtaGreat Lakes PGPM - MainGreat Lakes PGPM C66539 Chester $ 102,062,415
5 Michael StoicaWashburn University - MainStrategic Analysis C66272 Baldwin $ 100,603,573
6 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- C C65322 Chester $ 99,817,375
7 Igor GvozdanovicZagreb School of Economics and Management - MainMaximizing and Measuring Corporate Value_CAPSTONE C67613 Andrews $ 97,578,131
8 Veer MehtaIIM Shillong - MainIIM Shillong C61259 Chester $ 97,216,158
9 Erin NelsonDePaul University - MainGSB 599 C66845 Chester $ 96,520,602
10 Dharam PalBIMTECH India - MainBIMTECH India C65546 Chester $ 95,719,172
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
#1 Fall 2014Stock Price for Round8 - Mean - $ 105.49
Top Ten Active Teams
Professor School/Course Simid Team Value
1 Edward ForrestUniversity of Alaska-Anchorage - MainManagement Simulation C65883 Chester $ 407.95
2 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- C C65322 Chester $ 372.73
3 Al LovvornThe Citadel - mainBADM 740: Fall 2014 C65655 Andrews $ 320.94
4 Montchai PinitjitsamutKasetsart University - MainAgStrategy1 C63413 Andrews $ 317.55
5 Jeffrey McGeeUniversity of Texas - MainStrategic Management Fall 2014 C66078 Baldwin $ 307.51
6 Veer MehtaGreat Lakes PGPM - MainGreat Lakes PGPM C66540 Chester $ 307.47
7 Montchai PinitjitsamutKasetsart University - MainAgStrategy1 C63413 Chester $ 303.80
8 Robyn RodierMelbourne Business School - MainIntegrative Business Capstone - FT August 2014 C66127 Baldwin $ 297.36
9 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- C C65324 Chester $ 295.82
10 Vasant SivaramanS.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research - MainDecision Analysis (Business Simulation)- A C65318 Chester $ 291.90
13 Edward ForrestUniversity of Alaska-Anchorage - MainManagement Simulation C65883 Digby $ 280.96
S I M U L A T I O N
M A N A G E M E N T You are now the Captain…
Today- we will begin analysis of “your situation…”11stst-Step back & -Step back &
take a look at take a look at the “Big the “Big Picture” Picture”
The Big Picture
•CCompanyompany
•CConsumersonsumers
•CCompetitorsompetitors
•CConditionsonditions• PESTPEST
Growth &Growth & Competitive Competitive StrategiesStrategies
FinanceFinance
HRHR
ProductionProduction
R&DR&D
MarketingMarketing
Functional Functional IntegrationIntegration
Profits Mrkt Share ROA ROS ROE Asset T/O Stock Mrkt Cap
Situation/SWOT Situation/SWOT AnalysisAnalysis
Strategic Strategic PlanningPlanning
Functional Functional IntegrationIntegration
Performance Performance AssessmentAssessment
BUSINESS PLAN GUIDELINE
Page 1: Mission & Vision Statements –
SECTION I : SITUATION ANALYSIS1.1: External Environment - Opportunities & Threats: MARKET STRUCTURE MARKET SEGMENT SIZE & GROWTH MARKET SEGMENT VALUE MARKET SEGMENT DYNAMICS 1.2: Internal Environment- Analysis & Evaluation of Company's Strengths & Weaknesses Marketing Management Production & HR Management Financial Management
1.3: Situational Analysis Results: SWOT Analysis
SECTION II: STRATEGY, OBJECTIVES & TACTICS2.1: Select one of the Six Basic Strategies delineated in your Online Guide – Describe your Company's Growth & Competitive Strategy; be specific regarding any plans for new product development (What products? Which segments? What years?)
2.2: Functional Domains- Objectives & TacticsMarketing + R&D- Production & HRFinancial-
BUSINESS PLAN Answers 3 Critical Q’s:
1.Where are 1.Where are we now? we now?
2.Where do we 2.Where do we want to gowant to go
3.How do we 3.How do we get there?get there?
= Situation Analysis
2. Where do we want to go?
– Market positions to stake out?
– Consumer needs & segments serve?
– Outcomes to achieve?
Final Question answered by Strategic Planning:
1.Where are we now? 2.Where do we want
to go?
3.How do we get there?
*Growth, Competitive & Functional Strategies
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
Consumer
Company
Competitors
Conditions
Begin Situation-Analysis
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTOpportunities & Threats
INTERNAL ENVIRONMENTYour Company's
FinancialStrengths & Weaknesses:
Ascertain:
Market Structure
Consumer Demand
Ascertain:
Market Structure
Consumer Demand
YOUR 1st ASSIGNMENT
Opportunities & Threats:
S I M U L A T I O N
M A R K E T I N G M G T.
Consumer
Company
Competitors
Conditions
Begin Situation-Analysis
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTOpportunities & Threats
INTERNAL ENVIRONMENTYour Company's
FinancialStrengths & Weaknesses:
M A N A G E M E N T
S I M U L A T I O N
Ascertain Financial
Health of Your Company
M A N A G E M E N T
S I M U L A T I O N
Various Measures of Your
PROFITABILITY Profitability Ratios: ROS--- Profit/ Sales ROA— Profit/ Assets ROE– Profit/ Equity
Net Profits
Cum Profits
M A N A G E M E N T
S I M U L A T I O N
NET PROFITS $$NET PROFITS $$
•Year 1 $6 million
•Year 2 $8 million
•Year 3 $10 million
•Year 4 $12 million
•Year 5 $16 million
•Year 6 $21 million
•Year 7 $27 million
•Year 8 $35 million
NET PROFITS $$NET PROFITS $$
•Year 1 $6 million
•Year 2 $8 million
•Year 3 $10 million
•Year 4 $12 million
•Year 5 $16 million
•Year 6 $21 million
•Year 7 $27 million
•Year 8 $35 million
CUM PROFITCUM PROFITGeneral Range:
$20 to $100 M
CUM PROFITCUM PROFITGeneral Range:
$20 to $100 M
““ROS indicates percentage of each ROS indicates percentage of each sales dollar that results in net income.”sales dollar that results in net income.”
Main ratio of ProfitabilityReturn on Sales
Return on Sales =Return on Sales =net profitnet profit
net salesnet sales
Return on Assets
Return on Assets = = net profit
assets
net profit
assets
““ROA measures company’s ability to use its assets to generate earnings.”
Return on EquityReturn on Equity = =net profitnet profit
equityequity
Profitability * Asset Mgt * Leverage
ROE
Encompasses the 3 main levers used by mgt to generate return on investors equity
Du Pont Formula
Return on Equity =Return on Equity =net profitnet profit
equityequity
net profitnet profit
salessales
salessales
assetsassets
assetsassets
equityequityxxxx xxxx
Value Chain
Du Pont Formula
Return on Equity =Return on Equity =net profitnet profit
equityequity
net profitnet profit
salessales
salessales
assetsassets
assetsassets
equityequityxxxx xxxx
Value Chain
net profitnet profit
salessales
salessales
assetsassets
assetsassets
equityequityxxxx xxxx
Value Chain
Profitability * Asset Mgt * Leverage
Improve ROE by:Improve ROE by:
Increase sales &/or reduce &/or eff. work assets
Improving Margins
Increasing Leverage
“Generically, profits are driven by the company’s
asset base and by its efficiency
working those assets”
How effective/aggressive R-U in building your Co’s asset base…
It takes $$ to Make $$
&-why not make it using somebody else's…. To help you make even
more…
Assets/Equity – simulation takes owner's perspective.
A Leverage of 3.0 says, "For every $3 of Assets there is $1 of Equity & $2 of Debt”…
Leverage Assets Debt Equity
1.0 $1 $0 $1
2.0 $2 $1 $1
3.0 $3 $2 $1
4.0 $4 $3 $1
LEVERAGE:
1.8 to 2.8
OptimalOptimal
Corp assets fin.w/ debt
Key Demand Consideration: Overall market
growing @ ~ 14%/yr
“Average” company should/could double - sales in 6 years
Key Capacity Consideration:Key Capacity
Consideration:
How effective will you be in building your Co’s asset base?
At outset should be spending ~$10-25M / round on plant improvement
By end should expand asset base to min $140M to $160M+
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
AAA/AA/A/BBB/… BB & beyond is Junk… B/CCC /CC/C/D = default
AAA/AA/A/BBB/… BB & beyond is Junk… B/CCC /CC/C/D = default
•As your debt-to-assets ratio increases… Your short term interest rate increases…
•For each additional .5% increase in interest -You drop one category
The More Assets you have the better your Bond Ratings
“Generically, profits are driven by the company’s
asset base and by its efficiency
working those assets”
Asset TurnoverReveals how effective assets are at generating sales revenue.
The higher the better = more efficient use of assets
Asset Turnover = sales
assets
sales
assets
Currently you are generating $1.05 in sales for every $1 assets
…………. . below 30%,below 30%, Problem = Marketing (customers hate
your products) Production (your labor &
material costs too high), &or Pricing (you cut price too
much).
IF: Contribution Contribution Margin Margin
(Sales- variable costs) / sales
Contribution Margin is Contribution Margin is above 30%…above 30%… but Net but Net Margin is below 20% Margin is below 20% ……Net Margin = Sales - (Variable Costs + Period (Fixed) Costs) / Sales
Problem= heavy expenditures on Depreciation (perhaps you have idle plant)
& or heavy expenditures on SGA (perhaps you’re pushing into diminishing returns on Promo & Sales Budgets).
IF:
Net Margin above 20%,Net Margin above 20%, but ROS (net profit) below 5%.. ROS (net profit) below 5%.. ----
you either experienced some extraordinary "Other" expense like a write-off on plant you sold
or you are paying too much Interest (…you may also have spent heavily on TQM
initiatives).
IF:
STOCK PRICE Function of:
1. Earnings per Share
Net Profit / # Shares
2. Book Value Equity / # Shares
3. Dividend Policy Good Dividend Policy