Beyond  Mobility Planning  for  the  Bigger  Picture  

Eric  Engstrom,  AICP  City  of  Portland,  OR  Rail~Volu>on  2014  

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

Expected Growth by 2035:

•  122,000 more households

•  140,000 projected new jobs

Comprehensive Plan

Comparing  Different  Growth  Pa:erns

Default Growth Scenario Corridor Growth Scenario Hubs Growth Scenario

Comparing  Different  Growth  Pa:erns

What  makes  a  city  healthy?

Safety

Basic Public Services

Social Connections Businesses & Amenities

Active Transportation Quality Housing

Healthy Food Parks & Nature

Watershed Health

Performance  Measures Complete Neighborhoods Tree Canopy

Access to Frequent Transit Access to Family Friendly

Bike Network Watershed Health

Housing Mix Vehicle Miles Traveled Housing Affordability Mode Split Risk of Displacement/

Gentrification Carbon/GHG Emissions

Parks Access

City  Shaping  Tool

City  Shaping  Tool

Distribu>on  of  New  Housing  (2010-­‐2035)    

Comp  Plan  Context  –  Form

Growth  Strategy

What  is  the  streetcar  predic-ve  model?  

An  analy>cal  tool  to  predict  real  estate  development  that  would  be  s>mulated  by  streetcar  and  related  investments.      

What  the  model  tells  us…  1.  Magnitude  of  new  development  

s>mulated  by  public  investment    2.  How  local  regula>ons  affect  

development  feasibility            3.  Es>mated  fiscal  and  economic  

benefits  of  development  

About  the  PredicHve  Model

• Considers  ownership  paSerns,  zoning  paSerns  and  codes,  property  values,  local  market  data,  and  applica>on  of  suppor>ve  public  policy.  • Models  individual  pro-­‐forma  decisions  that  developers  make  •  Spreadsheet-­‐based  • Developed  by  Johnson  Economics  • Peer  reviewed    • Requires  economic  exper>se  to  run  

About  the  PredicHve  Model

LIKELIHOOD  OF  DEVELOPMENT  MODULE  

PREDICTED  MAGNITUDE  AND  FORM  OF  DEVELPOMENT  

SUPPORTABLE  VALUE  

CURRENT  VALUE  

PRICING  

COST  

RETURN     ZONING  

PREDICTED  DEVELOPMENT/  REDEVELOPMENT  

RESIDUAL  PROPERTY  VALUE  MODULE  

Research  on  cause  and  effect  is  limited  

User  inputs…  

User  inputs…  

10  Study  Areas

9.5%  

2.2%  

1.0%  0.8%  

0.6%   0.4%   0.3%   0.2%  

0.0%  

1.0%  

2.0%  

3.0%  

4.0%  

5.0%  

6.0%  

7.0%  

8.0%  

9.0%  

10.0%  

Macadam   Foster   Sandy   MLK   Gateway   Belmont     82nd   Broadway  

Average  Change  in  RMV  w.  Streetcar  Rela>ve  to  Baseline    (Change  as  a  %  of  present  RMV)