Presented by
Yium TavarolitYium Tavarolit
Chief Secretary and EconomistChief Secretary and Economist
International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo)International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo)
Sheraton Towers, Singapore31 October 2007
Rubber Markets 2007Rubber Markets 2007
Domestic Prices Influencing the Export SectorDomestic Prices Influencing the Export Sector
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The scenario of Thailand’s rubber production The scenario of Thailand’s rubber production due to external factors in today’s context due to external factors in today’s context (what could possibly happen at present?)(what could possibly happen at present?)
Introduction
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Northern Part
2 Chiang Mai
3 Chiang Rai
12 Phitsanulok
Northeastern Part
21 Nong Khai
20 Udon Thani
41 Burirum
Central Part
29 Kanchana Buri
45 Ratcha Buri
Eastern Part
58 Rayong
59 Chantha Buri
Southern Part (East Coast)
65 Surat Thani
69 Nakhornsi Thammarat
73 Songkhla
Southern Part (West Coast)
67 Krabi
70 Trang
The Map of Thailand with Locations of Rubber Plantation
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Year
Planted Area ('000 ha)Production
(tons)Yield
(kg/ha/yr)Mature Immature Total
2000 1,523,899 463,331 1,987,230 2,377,789 1.563
2001 1,523,407 466,867 1,990,274 2,561,120 1.681
2002 1,553,214 450,462 2,003,676 2,631,605 1.694
2003 1,601,353 416,854 2,018,207 2,860,966 1.788
2004 1,656,686 417,244 2,073,930 3,005,091 1.813
2005 1,691,588 488,129 2,179,717 2,974,832 1.756
Table 1. Planted area, production of natural rubber in Thailand, 2000 – 2005
Source: 4th ITRC Stat. Committee
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Introduction (cont.)
Earnings of natural rubber accounted for 346.72 billion baht (US$ 10.2 billion) in 2006
Value creation of agricultural products is one of conceptual development framework for the 10th National Economic and Social Development Plan
(10th NESDP: 2007 - 2011)
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National Policy on Natural Rubber
Recognizing the importance of the rubber products industry as a one of potential industry and support the development of rubber products
industry in five areas as follows:-
Natural rubber becomes one of the most important cash crops of Thailand
Continuingly increase in supply and demand for world natural rubber in response to expanding demand for world’s
transportation and rising oil prices
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National Policy on Natural Rubber (cont.)Constructing the well - established and strong rubber products
industry and business and aiming for the Asia’s largest rubber producer by giving more emphasis on strengthening of
technology, especially by providing incentives fro import of new and more efficient machinery and technology, transfer of
technology to Thai personnel and establishment of R&D programs
Encouraging and providing budget for R&D in productivity from upstream to downstream to the universities and research
institutes
Speeding up technology licensing and transfer from aboard
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National Strategic Development of Rubber Products National Strategic Development of Rubber Products Industry and Business for Medium and Long - TermIndustry and Business for Medium and Long - Term
1st: Increasing Sufficient Quality Supply of Natural Rubber Raw Materials
Productivity improvement of raw materials
Creating pioneer farming zones to maximize productivity and efficient supply to the rubber industry
Transferring necessary agricultural knowledge and technology to rubber smallholders, and
Providing suitable agricultural inputs, and managing supply of raw materials in sufficient quantities to meet industrial
demand
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2nd: Development of Science and Technology
Supporting research on modifying and improving existing technology in SMEs
Supporting knowledge transfer to the private sector to create skilled knowledge
Promoting public and private latex Bio – tech R&D investment
Building strong research community
Enhancing the capacity of private and public research institutes and university to support SMEs
Creating intellectual property with value in the commercial market
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3rd: Competitiveness and Capacity Enhancement
Enhancing efficiency in existing agencies concerned to coordinate networks
Adjusting production processes and methods to make them more efficient and higher quality
Enhancing efficiency in output distribution by improving marketing system at all levels and promoting e – commerce
Developing product quality standard systems to meet international standards
Promoting sustainable rubber production process
Supporting establishment of The Rubber Board of Thailand
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4th: Establishment of Supportive Infrastructure
Reviewing and revising laws and regulations, which are barriers to the private sector for stimulating the upgrading of
their production technology.
Promoting and stimulating demand for made-in-Thailand rubber products by government procurement agencies and so
on
Accelerating logistics system development master plan
Establishing rubber products standards and test centers
Promoting the use of regional economic and technical cooperation bodies to expand rubber markets
Sources: NESDB, Thailand and IRCo, September 2007
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Table 2. Natural Rubber Production, Exports, Domestic Consumption, Table 2. Natural Rubber Production, Exports, Domestic Consumption, Stocks, and Imports of Thailand, 1996 - 2006Stocks, and Imports of Thailand, 1996 - 2006
Year
Production Exports Domestic
ConsumptionStocks Imports
'000 tons
% (+/-)'000 tons
% (+/-)'000 tons
% (+/-)'000 tons
% (+/-)'000 tons
% (+/-)
1996 1,970 - 1,763 - 174 - 148 - 1 -
1997 2,033 3.17 1,837 4.21 182 4.81 159 7.93 - -
1998 2,076 2.13 1,839 0.12 186 2.39 210 31.48 - -
1999 2,155 3.79 1,886 2.55 227 21.75 251 19.71 - -
2000 2,346 8.91 2,166 14.83 243 6.89 189 -24.80 - -
2001 2,320 -1.15 2,042 -5.73 253 4.35 213 12.92 - -
2002 2,615 12.74 2,354 15.30 278 9.98 197 -7.66 1 -
2003 2,876 9.98 2,573 9.30 299 7.31 202 2.83 2 26.50
2004 2,984 3.77 2,637 2.47 319 6.68 233 14.99 2 3.99
2005 2,937 -1.58 2,632 -0.18 335 5.02 204 -12.17 2 -10.55
2006 3,137 6.80 2,772 5.29 321 -4.11 250 22.34 1 -24.04
Average Annual Growth
4.86 4.82 6.51 6.76
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 3. Natural Rubber Production of Thailand Table 3. Natural Rubber Production of Thailand by Types, 1996 - 2006by Types, 1996 - 2006
Year RSS STR Conc.
Latex *Crepe Others Total
1999 1,154 623 300 3 73 2,155
2000 1,124 827 292 9 94 2,346
2001 928 858 464 12 58 2,320
2002 1,100 967 471 13 64 2,615
2003 1,237 1,035 489 9 106 2,876
2004 1,283 1,074 507 9 110 2,984
2005 1,028 1,233 602 9 65 2,937
2006 1,035 1,192 722 3 185 3,137
Proportion(%)
41.59 36.56 18.00 0.31 3.54 100
Source: RRIT, Thailand
Unit: '000 tons
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Table 4. Natural Rubber Exports of Thailand by Types, Table 4. Natural Rubber Exports of Thailand by Types, 1996 - 20061996 - 2006
Year RSS STR Conc.
Latex *Others Total
1996 1,180 324 203 56 1,763
1997 1,095 456 225 60 1,837
1998 1,047 480 246 66 1,839
1999 1,071 541 217 57 1,886
2000 1,006 808 285 67 2,166
2001 870 763 348 61 2,042
2002 1,050 829 382 93 2,354
2003 1,150 913 409 102 2,573
2004 1,003 998 493 143 2,637
2005 921 1,109 489 113 2,632
2006 939 1,069 556 207 2,772
Proportion (%) 46.25 33.84 15.72 4.18 100
Source: RRIT, Thailand
Note: * Dry Rubber Content
Unit: '000 tons
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Table 5. Exports of RSS of Thailand by Grades, Table 5. Exports of RSS of Thailand by Grades, 1996 - 20061996 - 2006
YearRSS's Grades
Total1X 1 2 3 4 5
1996 - 14 4 973 172 17 1,180
1997 - 12 2 907 158 16 1,095
1998 - 15 9 833 180 11 1,047
1999 - 27 4 831 182 28 1,071
2000 - 19 2 805 165 15 1,006
2001 - 19 1 723 118 10 870
2002 - 16 0 855 169 10 1,050
2003 - 29 4 939 171 7 1,150
2004 1 29 2 796 173 3 1,003
2005 1 23 2 726 165 5 921
2006 1 14 2 769 150 3 939
Proportion (%) 0.03 1.91 0.28 80.78 15.90 1.10 100
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 6. Exports of TSR of Thailand by Grades, Table 6. Exports of TSR of Thailand by Grades, 1996 - 20061996 - 2006
Year
STRUn-specified
BlockTotal
XL 5L 5 10 20 CV
1996 - 4 1 8 246 - 65 324
1997 - 9 0 12 334 - 10 456
1998 - 7 0 16 309 1 148 480
1999 1 5 0 29 415 1 89 541
2000 2 7 0 86 559 5 149 808
2001 1 4 0 86 536 7 130 763
2002 1 3 1 86 595 11 131 829
2003 1 4 0 79 637 13 178 913
2004 1 4 0 74 703 14 202 998
2005 1 6 0 60 774 19 249 1,109
2006 1 6 8 70 719 14 252 1,069
Proportion (%) 0.08 0.73 0.14 7.32 70.29 1.02 20.40 100
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 7. Exports of Other Types of Natural Rubber Table 7. Exports of Other Types of Natural Rubber of Thailand, 1996 - 2006of Thailand, 1996 - 2006
YearAir Dried
SheetCrepe Skim USS Others Total
1996 18 1 20 6 11 56
1997 14 1 24 9 15 60
1998 11 1 27 10 17 66
1999 10 1 32 2 13 57
2000 10 2 40 1 14 67
2001 7 4 33 2 14 61
2002 9 6 41 1 36 93
2003 11 5 38 1 47 102
2004 11 4 44 0 84 143
2005 11 4 57 0 41 113
2006 13 3 50 0 140 207
Proportion (%)
12.14 3.17 39.70 3.24 42.04 100
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 8. Imports of Thai Natural Rubber by Countries, Table 8. Imports of Thai Natural Rubber by Countries, 1996 - 20061996 - 2006
Year China Japan U.S. MalaysiaS.Kore
aEU Others Total
1996 530 383 174 111 102 212 251 1,763
1997 563 300 240 132 122 210 270 1,837
1998 500 238 280 179 123 226 294 1,839
1999 410 243 236 155 157 241 344 1,886
2000 505 418 330 244 136 231 303 2,166
2001 435 368 302 297 139 233 267 2,042
2002 499 437 382 364 139 266 322 2,354
2003 543 651 279 365 166 294 275 2,573
2004 526 620 249 384 172 292 395 2,637
2005 540 573 238 404 185 281 411 2,632
2006 493 747 211 443 173 262 443 2,772
Proportion(%)
23.03 20.31 11.92 12.56 6.59 11.22 14.59 100
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 9. Exports of Thai Natural Rubber Table 9. Exports of Thai Natural Rubber by Ports/Customs Houses, 1996 - 2006by Ports/Customs Houses, 1996 - 2006
Year
Ports Customs Houses
Others TotalBKK Songkhla
Laem-chabang
PhuketChiang
SaenPadang Besar
Sadao Betong
1996 540 472 18 96 0 473 78 31 55 1,763
1997 519 370 28 139 0 572 93 39 77 1,837
1998 509 367 41 116 0 538 152 34 83 1,839
1999 484 326 60 102 0 684 133 27 69 1,886
2000 273 446 142 247 0 740 203 32 82 2,166
2001 166 429 64 222 0 710 252 28 171 2,042
2002 430 408 60 199 0 771 303 35 148 2,354
2003 454 509 69 158 3 852 338 38 152 2,573
2004 340 387 145 114 26 946 359 41 278 2,637
2005 321 317 138 98 39 935 475 35 274 2,632
2006 335 307 164 90 24 1,027 450 39 337 2,772
Proportion (%)
18 18 4 6 0 34 12 2 7 100
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 10. Value of Natural Rubber Exports of Thailand Table 10. Value of Natural Rubber Exports of Thailand by Types, 1996 - 2006by Types, 1996 - 2006
Year RSS STRConc.Latex
Others Total
1996 41,658 11,639 7,875 129 61,301
1997 32,993 14,615 7,742 201 55,551
1998 30,931 15,096 8,775 214 55,015
1999 24,760 12,507 6,299 525 44,092
2000 25,130 20,885 7,067 123 53,205
2001 23,585 22,276 12,658 182 58,700
2002 29,818 26,824 17,433 531 74,606
2003 43,265 45,264 26,857 441 115,827
2004 49,050 53,403 34,652 500 137,604
2005 47,902 63,937 36,536 494 148,868
2006 68,620 83,870 52,358 513 205,361
Proportion (%) 41.35 36.66 21.61 0.38 100
Unit: Million Baht
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 11. Natural Rubber Consumption of Thailand Table 11. Natural Rubber Consumption of Thailand by Types, 1996 - 2006by Types, 1996 - 2006
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
Year STRConc. Latex
RSS ADS Others Crepe Total
1996 63 39 49 7 7 9 174
1997 66 41 50 7 10 9 182
1998 67 52 43 7 11 7 186
1999 78 71 61 11 4 2 227
2000 88 81 55 7 10 1 243
2001 96 75 61 11 7 3 253
2002 107 78 69 11 10 3 278
2003 115 83 74 12 11 4 299
2004 123 88 79 13 13 3 319
2005 129 93 82 14 13 3 335
2006 104 132 70 8 5 1 321
Proportion (%)
36.78 29.59 24.56 3.85 3.58 1.63 100
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Table 12. Natural Rubber Consumption of Thailand Table 12. Natural Rubber Consumption of Thailand by Types of Products, 2003 - 2006by Types of Products, 2003 - 2006
Types of Products 2003 2004 2005 20061. Tires 124 130 140 137
2. Elastic 27 40 44 68
3. Glove 55 57 58 52
4. Tire and Tube for motorcycles 22 20 25 22
5. Rubber band 26 27 25 16
6. Canvas shoes & Foam Candle 11 11 11 5
7. Others 12 12 10 4
8. Shoe Layer 3 3 3 4
9. Glue 1 1 2 2
10. Belt 2 2 3 1
11. Accessories part for motor vehicle 5 6 4 1
12. Hose 1 1 1 1
13. Scientific instruments 2 1 1 1
14. Foam Products 0 1 0 0
15. Retreading 6 7 8 6
16. Ballon 0 0 1 0
Total 298 319 335 321
Unit: '000 tons
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Table 13. Export Value of Natural Rubber Products Table 13. Export Value of Natural Rubber Products of Thailand, 2004 - 2006of Thailand, 2004 - 2006
Types of Products 2004 2005 2006Tire & Tube for Motorcars 25,722 34,575 43,583
Glove 23,916 26,078 27,288
Others 7,324 10,474 11,293
Compound Rubber 4,473 4,203 12,927
Elastic 4,096 4,630 6,866
Gasket / Seal 2,113 2,324 2,743
Hose 3,385 3,496 4,060
Rubber Band 1,841 1,912 2,468
Piping and Tubing Tires 1,542 1,661 1,901
Condom 1,493 1,844 1,796
Belts 1,000 1,256 1,057
Floor Tiles 967 457 484
Apparel Clothing 381 563 573
Nipple 217 211 184
Vulcanised Rubber 112 611 293
Rubber Eraser 33 32 28
Total 78,628 94,351 117,577
Unit: Million Baht
Source: RRIT, Thailand
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Natural Rubber Prices in Thailand, 1996 – 2007Natural Rubber Prices in Thailand, 1996 – 2007
The Fall: 1996 – 2001
The global economic slowdown
Less bargaining power of NR producing countries despite firm global economy in some years
Low prices of synthetic rubber
Asian economic crisis in mid-1997 The overhang of Thai government stockpile
The demise of INRO in 1999
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The Rise: 2002 – 2007
The global economy has rebounded steadily to the present
Higher demand for rubber from China, India, and the emerging economies
Higher prices of synthetic rubber due to rising oil prices
Erratic weather and more natural disasters due to the global climate change
Establishment of Tripartite rubber cooperation among Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia (ITRC and IRCo)
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Table 13. Natural Rubber Prices of Thailand, 1997 - 2007*Table 13. Natural Rubber Prices of Thailand, 1997 - 2007*
YearConc. Latex USS3 STR20 RSS3
Baht US Cents % (+/-) Baht US Cents % (+/-) Baht US Cents % (+/-) Baht US Cents % (+/-)
1997 24.23 77.23 - 27.25 86.86 - 29.87 95.21 - 30.18 96.20 -
1998 25.30 61.15 -0.21 25.68 62.07 -0.29 27.86 67.34 -0.21 29.44 71.16 -0.26
1999 19.88 52.54 -0.14 19.85 52.46 -0.15 22.65 59.86 -0.14 23.51 62.13 -0.13
2000 22.98 57.22 0.09 23.43 58.34 0.11 25.70 63.99 0.09 26.84 66.83 0.08
2001 20.84 46.90 -0.18 22.55 50.75 -0.13 23.94 53.88 -0.18 25.34 57.03 -0.15
2002 25.73 59.89 0.28 29.15 67.85 0.34 32.39 75.40 0.28 32.69 76.09 0.33
2003 35.60 85.81 0.43 40.17 96.83 0.43 41.97 101.17 0.43 44.45 107.15 0.41
2004 39.96 99.35 0.16 46.66 116.00 0.20 49.26 122.47 0.16 51.72 128.58 0.20
2005 44.85 111.51 0.12 55.19 137.22 0.18 56.51 140.50 0.12 60.16 149.58 0.16
2006 57.12 150.78 0.35 72.12 190.38 0.39 75.63 199.65 0.35 79.79 210.63 0.41
2007* 52.91 152.10 0.01 70.85 203.64 0.07 73.46 211.19 0.04 77.20 221.88 0.05
% Change (1997-2006)
1.18 0.97 1.60 1.34 1.46 1.22 1.56 1.31
Source: RRIT, Thailand
Note: * * Average of Jan - Sep 2007
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Figure 1. Natural Rubber Prices of Thailand, 1997 - 2007*Figure 1. Natural Rubber Prices of Thailand, 1997 - 2007*
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07*
US Cents/kg
Conc. Latex USS3 STR20 RSS3
-11.01%
17.10%-11.46%
21.03%
Note: * Average of Jan - Sep 2007
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Table 14. Tokyo and Singapore Rubber Futures MarketsTable 14. Tokyo and Singapore Rubber Futures Markets
YearTokyo Singapore
Yen/kg % (+/-) US$/kg % (+/-)
1995 153.92 0.30 158.13 0.39
1996 147.59 -0.04 138.99 -0.12
1997 118.40 -0.20 99.80 -0.28
1998 92.82 -0.22 70.31 -0.30
1999 72.26 -0.22 61.38 -0.13
2000 74.95 0.04 66.03 0.08
2001 66.62 -0.11 56.95 -0.14
2002 99.12 0.49 75.87 0.33
2003 128.92 0.30 107.28 0.41
2004 140.53 0.09 127.94 0.19
2005 166.12 0.18 149.25 0.17
2006 244.16 0.47 208.07 0.39
2007* 263.76 0.08 220.68 0.06
% Change (1994-2006) 71.00 40.00
Source: RRIT, Thailand
Note: * * Average of Jan - Sep 2007
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Figure 2. Tokyo and Singapore Rubber Futures MarketsFigure 2. Tokyo and Singapore Rubber Futures Markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07*
Yen/kg
0
50
100
150
200
250US Cent/kg
Tokyo Singapore
-6.46%
21.42%-7.11%
20.32%
Note: * Average of Jan - Sep 2007
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The Future: ?????
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Conclusion
The balance of supply and demand for natural and synthetic rubber will lead to a sustainable development of the rubber industry, and the
physical rubber market should be strengthened in order to lower rubber prices’ volatility.
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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention