Roger Nelson [email protected]
Mind Matter and MachinesTools for Anomalies ResearchPEAR Laboratory, Princeton University
We have used many machinesAll based on Random Sources
Dual Thermistor
Linedar Pendulum
Electronic REG/RNG
Chaotic Fountain
Random Drumbeat
Designing a flawless experiment is extremely difficult, and carrying one out is probably impossible.
- - Jessica Utts, Seeing Through Statistics
The beginning of a viable Experiment is good design And careful implementation
The technology has been developing Over the last four decades
Reliable, calibrated REG/RNG devices
Increasing sophistication of design
Computer recording and analysis
Controlled explorations
Theoretical questions
Robust analyses
New generations of Random SourcesPEAR B-Box: Thermal Johnson Noise
Mindsong: Field Effect Transistor
Replications and Extensions
Palmtop Portability
How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source
Each trial is the sum of 200 bits
The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with
Theoretical normal distribution
expected
What happens to the data over time?Plot cumulative deviation from expectation
A General Case GCP Standard Analysis
Should be a Random Walk (a “drunkard’s walk”)
The REG technology is basicExperimental questions can vary
Feedback and perspective change outcome
Feedback mode can be simple numbersOr plots of cumulative deviations
Is one of these better?
Laboratory Experiments, PEAR:Intention to change the REG behavior
High and Low both depart from expectation
HI
LO
BL
522 REG Experiments: The Difference Between High and Low
Intention is Small, but is a Significant Shift
Other Experiments with Random Physical Systems
Fabry Perot Interferometer
Crookes Tube
Dual Thermistor
Degraded Shift Register
Random Mechanical Cascade
Linear Pendulum
Linear to Turbulent Flow (Fountain)
…
An Onboard REG controls the pathof a Robot (with a Frog passenger)
Poisson distributed rotation and distance
Random Mechanical Cascade (RMC)
The Pinball Machine
Murphy
9000 ¾ inch balls19 collecting bins10’ high 6’ wide
A Linear PendulumSwinging in Air
Increase or
Decrease Damping
Knife edge breaks An LED beamTiming by a 50
Nanosecond clock
A Random Event Generator (REG or RNG)
Mindsong REG
Orion RNG
Broader Applications: A continuous running REG in the lab, with software to mark eventsIn November, 1995, Rabin was Assassinated
Field REG Experiments: Take portable REG With Palmtop Computer into the Field
Resonant vs Mundane Situations
In FieldREG there are no Assigned Intentions
We simply collect data in the situationWe find departures from expectation
Queens Chamber
GrandGallery
KingsChamber
Departures from expectation correlate with Coherent or Resonant group consciousness
Deeply engaging ideas and emotions
Going Global: A prototype collaborationColleagues in Europe and the US
Collected 12 independent data streams
Global Consciousness Project Combined data
For a whole day, from 48 eggs
We can see better what’s happening by Plotting the cumulative deviations
Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
Maybe a trend in the cumulative Deviation is Meaningful?
Examples of the range ofPotential Global Events:
Natural disastersTerrible accidents
The beginning of warThe Pope’s pilgrimage
Grand celebrations Political excitement
Astrological hot spotsWorld-wide meditations
Tearing the Social Fabric:
Terrorists Attack Civilians and Diplomats
Nato Bombs Kosovo to End Ethnic Cleansing
Taliban Destroy Ancient Buddhist Treasure
September 11 Enters History of the Earth
Major disasters that engage us powerfullyOften correlate with big deviations
An exploration of context: Six hours of dataAround the beginning of bombing in Kosovo
Sept 11 prediction: Inter-egg Variance will fluctuate
Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
Repairing the Social Fabric:
Healing MeditationsPrayer VigilsCeremonies
Holidays
A Substantial Agreement on Getting Our Ecological Act Together
Voices For Peace -- World-Wide Conscience -- Global Consciousness
And Yet -- A Preemptive Attack The March to War is No Random Walk
The Lighter Side
Celebrations: What better example than
New Years?
An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations
Across all (37) time zones
Three of five are classic examples
Prediction: New YearsReduction of Variance
Among the Eggs
Three of five are classic
confirmations
Questions outnumber answers
Deep engagement is powerful Great numbers contribute
butDoes distance from the focus matter?How about relevance to local people?Is human consciousness necessary?
Are “experimenter effects” the source? What kinds of events are “strongest”?Is the effect repeatable and reliable?
Effect vs Dist, Stouffer Z, Full Day, Sept 11
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
USEastern
US Middle
USWestern
England,Scandin
WesternEurope
Israel,India,Brazil
Africa,Austral,
New ZealIncreasing Distance from NYC
Effe
ct S
ize
(r)
Does the distance of the eggsFrom the event make a difference?
GCP Effect Size by Event Category
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
Cel
ebra
tion
Spiri
tual
Eve
nt
Terr
or A
ttack
War
Act
s
Cra
sh A
ccid
ent
Mis
c N
atur
al
Spor
t Eve
nt
Mis
c H
uman
Med
itatio
n
Nat
ural
Dis
aste
r
Polit
ical
Eve
nt
Com
posi
te E
ffect
Category
Effe
ct S
ize
(r)
Categories: What seems to touch the EGG Network? Four and a Half Years, 132 Formal Predictions
The Bottom Line:132 global events over 4.5 years
Odds: About 100,000 to 1