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Effects of Collective Attention
Patterns Where There Should Be None
A Glimpse of Global Consciousness?
Invited Presentation for the Internationaal Jubileumcongres
75 Jaar Wetenschappelijke Parapsychologie, Utrecht, 3 mei 2003
Yellow dots are nodes in the network. More than 50 hosts, Alaska to Fiji
Roger Nelson, http://noosphere.princeton.edu
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Historical Seeds of a Global Network
1980 Conceptual design: Continuous REG monitor
Then a decade of Intentional Mind/Machine experiments
1993 Adapt laboratory REG experiment as ContREG1994 Laptop version, “Field” studies at ICRL, Esalen
FieldREG paradigm, Nelson & PEAR; Radin; Bierman
1995 Assassination of Itzakh Rabin – Global Effect1996 O. J. Simpson verdict, Radin – 5 REGs
1997 January Gaiamind Global Meditation – 14 REGs
1997 September Princess Diana funeral ceremonies1997 November Freiburg Physiology and Psi conference
1998 Gathering friends, resources, programming
1998 August, Network is running, Embassy Bombings
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When you put a thing in order,and give it a name, and you areall in accord, it becomes.
- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950
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The technology is only now availableElectronics, Computers, Networking
High quality, micro- REG/RNG devices
Synchronized computers and software
Internet transfer of data to central server
Automatic archiving, public access
Formal analyses and explorations
Background, methods, poetic history
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A Random Event Generator
(REG or RNG)Mindsong REG
Orion RNG
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The binomial distribution of 1000
200-bit trials, compared withTheoretical normal distribution
expected
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What happens to the data over time?
Plot cumulative deviation from expectation
A General Case GCP Standard Analysis
Should be a Random Walk (a “drunkard’s walk”)
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Here we see the raw trial data
For a whole day, from 48 eggsThis is “Noise” – Is there a Signal?
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We can see better what’s happening byPlotting the cumulative deviations
Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
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Making a Summary StatisticCombining Data Across the Network
Meanshift (eggs show trend over time)
Stouffer Z-Score = Sum of Z’s divided by root N of eggsSquare the Z and compose as 2 over the period of interest
Variance (eggs spread or compress)Inter-Egg Variance ¡ Sum of Z2 across Eggs
Compose with df over the period of interest
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When we make a composite across eggs,
the cumulative deviation may show a trend
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Maybe a trend in the cumulative
Deviation is Meaningful?
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Examples of the range of Potential Global Events:
Natural disastersTerrible accidents
The beginning of war The Pope’s pilgrimage
Grand celebrations
Political excitementAstrological hot spots
World-wide meditations
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The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east
An occasion of hope for resolution of differences
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Political events, even big ones, are not
necessarily of interest to the EGG
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Tearing the Social Fabric:
Terrorists Attack Civilians and Diplomats
Nato Bombs Kosovo to End Ethnic Cleansing
Taliban Destroy Ancient Buddhist Treasure
September 11 Enters History of the Earth
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Major disasters that engage us powerfully
Often correlate with big deviations
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An exploration of context: Six hours of data
Around the beginning of bombing in Kosovo
Formal Test
One Hour
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The Buddhas of BamiyanAfter
Before March 12 2001
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The destruction of a world treasure
Approximate time, noon in Afghanistan
noon
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The WorldTrade Center
Fall, 2001
Carol M. HighsmithAl Dove
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The WorldTrade Center
September 11
2001
Tamara Beckwith
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On September 11 2001, early in the morning, a network of physical random event generators(called “eggs”) took on a striking trend. By 8:45 the non-random behavior was unmistakable.It peaked at about 10:30 with odds against chance of more than a thousand to one.
On 9/11 the data contained
unique sequential structure
Creative Collective Attention
Correlated Patterns in DataProfound Engagement
Shared Focus, Compassion, Emotion
On 9/11 the data showed
extraordinary moments
On 9/11 deviations began
that persisted for 2 days
The jagged red line shows three days of a measure(squared cumulative deviation of variance) thatrepresents the composite randomness of 37 eggs.
On September 11, the data show clear structurewhere there should be none. The eggs becamelinked across distance and time in some subtle waythat we do not yet know how to explain.
am
am
am
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….…………………. Normal range of variation
This is not a physical or electromagnetic effect. It’s notdue to extreme mobile phone use, or saturation TV.
It appears to be related to our profound engagement.
The destruction of the World Trade Towers
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The destruction of the World Trade TowersSept 11 2001
A 50-hour trend followed the attacksContextual Exploration
Formal Test
Sept 11 Radin prediction:
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Sept 11 Radin prediction:Inter-egg Variance will fluctuate
Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
A t l ti S t 11
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Autocorrelation on Sept 11
Structure where there should be noneCalculations: Peter Bancel
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What is there to say?
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Repairing the Social Fabric:
Healing
MeditationsPrayer VigilsCeremonies
Holidays
Chi M t f Sil
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Chicago, Moment of Silence
September 14 2001
Three Min tes of Silence
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Three Minutes of Silence
September 14 2001
Focused Siddhi Meditations
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Focused Siddhi MeditationsPost September 11, 2001
Context, Five Days
Peak Day,Threshold Exceeded
A Substantial Agreement on Getting
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A Substantial Agreement on Getting
Our Ecological Act Together
Voices For Peace -- World-Wide
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Voices For Peace -- World-Wide
Conscience -- Global Consciousness
And Yet -- A Preemptive Attack
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And Yet A Preemptive Attack
The March to War is No Random Walk
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The Lighter Side
Celebrations:
What better example than
New Years?
An obvious prediction:
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pNew Years celebrations
Across all (37) time zones
Three of fiveare classic
examples
New Years, another look:
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Reduction of Variance
Among the Eggs
Three of fiveare classic
examples
Note: These figures differ from those in the composite
figure, next, which had an error in timezone calculation.
Global Attention: Sharing New Year’s Eve
All over the world, people celebrate the change to a NewYear. Since 1998, we have recorded data from a network
And again for last year. The pattern
is replicated for the third time.
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,of physical random event generators (called “eggs”). Herewe look at what happens at midnight around the world.
The scientific prediction is that there will be a pattern of
increased correlation among the eggs. We test for trendsaway from the expected “random walk”. We have learnedto expect reductions in the variation across the eggs.
The figures on this page almost speak for themselves.They are pictures of our engagement with each other.
Variance Drop, Midnight, 1999-2000
Then, for the infamous
Y2K transition, we lookedat a measure of the
variability among the eggs
and predicted it would
decrease as we all focused
on midnight.
We predicted the same pattern
for the following year.
More at http://noosphere.princeton.edu
Broughton
Radin
In the first year, 1998-1999, we
looked for a change in the average
deviation, and compared Maxi- and
Mini-celebration time zones.
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What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go with it?
Four and a half years of data
More than 130 formal studiesAbout 65% positive outcome
About 15% individually significant
Many questions to ask
Q ti t b
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Questions outnumber answers
Deep engagement is essential
Great numbers most likely contributebut
Does distance from the focus matter?How about relevance to local people?Is human consciousness necessary?
Are “experimenter effects” the source?What kinds of events are “strongest”?Is the effect repeatable and reliable?
Does the distance of the eggs
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Does the distance of the eggs
From the event make a difference?Effect vs Dist, Stouffer Z, Full Day, Sept 11
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
US
Eastern
US
Middle
US
Western
England,
Scandin
Western
Europe
Israel,
India,
Brazil
Africa,
Austral,
New Zeal
Increasing Distance from NYC
E f f e c t S i z e
( r )
Categories: What seems to touch the EGG Network?
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g
Four and a Half Years, 132 Formal PredictionsGCP Effect Size by Event Category
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
C e l e b r a t i o n
S p i r i t u a l E v e n t
T e r r o r A t t a c k
W a r A c t s
C r a s h A c c i d e n t
M i s c N a t u r a l
S p o r t E v e n t
M i s c H u m a n
M e d i t a t i o n
N a t u r a l D i s a s t e r
P o l i t i c a l E v e n t
C o m p o s i t e E f f e c t
Category
E f f e c t S i z e
( r )
The Bottom Line:
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132 global events over 4.5 years
Odds: More than 10,000 to 1
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Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?
Sharpen and focus our questionsAim for theoretical understanding
Capture insight about creative mind
Consider evidence that we are one
Contribute to better future for culture
W thi k th ld t Wh t ld it b
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We think the world apart. What would it be
like to think the world together?-- Parker Palmer, educator
http://noosphere.princeton.edu