RETAILING IN INDIARETAILING IN INDIAPresentation by Shahnas ASyama K SSobymol DevasiaSabitha Z.B
RetailingAccording to Philip Kotler retailing includes all the activities involved in selling goods or Services directly to final consumers for personal , Non business use.Every sale of Goods and Services to final consumer Food products, apparel, movie tickets; services from hair cutting to e-ticketing.
A retailer or retail store is any business enterprise whose sale volume comes primarily from retailing.A retailer may be defined, as a dealer or trader who sells goods in small quantities.Any Organization Selling to final consumer is retailing , whether they areA ManufacturerA WholesalerA Retailer
It does not matter how they sell or serve ( By)PersonMailTelephoneVending Machine orInternetOrWhere these are soldA storeA streetConsumers House
Retailing may be understood as the final step in the distribution of merchandise, for consumption by the end consumers.Retailers attempt to satisfy consumer needs by having the right merchandise, at the right price, at the right place, when the consumer wants it.Retailers are the final business in a distribution channel that links manufacturers to consumersIndian retail industry is the second largest employer in the country with almost 12million retail stores in India.
Characteristics of retailingIt offers direct interaction Sale volume is comparatively large in quantitiesCustomer serviceSales promotions are offered at this point onlyDifferent formsLocation and layout are critical factorsMore employment opportunities
Retailers TypesDepartment storesSpecialty storesConvenience storeDiscount storeOff-price retailerSuper store
Functions of RetailingSortingBreaking BulkHolding stockCommunicationsAssist small suppliersCustomer service
INDIAN RETAIL-BRIEF OVERVIEWThe Indian retail sector is highly fragmented with more than 90 per cent of its business being carried out by traditional family run small stores. This provides immense opportunity for large scale retailers to set-up their operations a slew of organized retail formats like departmental stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets and specialty stores are swiftly replacing the traditional formats dramatically altering the retailing landscape in India.
India is the third-most attractive retail market for global retailers among the 30 largest emerging markets, according to US consulting group AT Kearneys report published in June 2010
RETAIL-MARKET SIZEThe total retail sales in India will grow from US$ 395.96 billion in 2011 to US$ 785.12 billion by 2015Indian retail sector accounts for 22 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and contributes to 8 per cent of the total employment.
Weekly MarketsVillage FairsMelas
Convenience StoresMom and Pop/KiranasPDS OutletsKhadi StoresCooperativesExclusive Brand OutletsHyper/Super MarketsDepartment StoresShopping MallsTraditional/Pervasive Reach Government SupportedHistoric/Rural ReachModern Formats/ InternationalEvolution of Indian retailSource of EntertainmentNeighborhood Stores/ConvenienceAvailability/ Low Costs / DistributionShopping Experience/Efficiency
REASONS FOR THE GROWTHRobust economic growthHigh disposable income with the end-consumerRapid construction of organized retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth. Expansion in middle and upper class consumer baseGrowth potential in Indias tier-II and tier-III cities as well. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 12.2 per cent.
Indian Retail Buoyed by high GDP growthProjections of 8% sustainable real GDP growth rate till 2020 promise high growth potential for Indian RetailReal Growth RateSource :Central Statistical Organization (CS0)
India Experiencing Rapid Economic Growth 9.4% growth rate makes India the second fastest growing economy in the worldGDP (US$ bn) Real Growth Rate
GDP no's
26300.107
9160.094
9790.067
10680.037
23740.028
43670.023
132450.02
GDP
Growth rate
Per Capita Income1
2232003
2460.1031390135
2700.0975609756
3020.1185185185
3480.1523178808
in bn
Growth rate
Forex Growth
27.67906976742001-02
38.5767441860.2824933687
57.81395348840.3327433628
72.13953488370.1985815603
77.25581395350.0662251656
103.86046511630.2561576355
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Growth Rate %
Services Growth
0.130.14
0.0630.211
0.0770.374
0.2150.411
0.5571.072
2005-06
2006-07
Womens employment
0.151
0.152
0.155
0.159
0.166
Women's Employment-Urban
Credit Cards
10.12.04
14.12.97
17.33.9
224.7
(in Mn)
Transaction (In bn)
Sheet1
GDPGrowth ratePrivate ConsumptionRetailRetail1313722.15590.85
China2,63010.70%70.00%418.847303.303
India9169.40%55.00%503.80412.20302.28201.52
Russia9796.70%40.00%136.03198.952325
Brazil1,0683.70%65.30%166.25219.894675
UK2,3742.80%58.10%35.40%
Japan4,3672.30%48.90%161.7
US13,2452.00%65.00%
Working Age Group
India
China
Brazil607.1368839855
Russia
US795.0293336552
UK
Japan
High Income Opportunities
Sector wise Employment
Self Employment
Working Women(in bn)
2001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07
Foreign Exchange Reserves27.738.657.872.177.3103.9
28%33%20%7%26%
Service SectorGrowth Rate %2005-062006-072005-062006-07
Tourist Arrivals13%14%3.91 Mn4.43 Mn
Passenger Cars Sales6.30%21.10%
Commercial Vehicle Sales7.70%37.40%
Domestic Air Passengers21.50%41.10%
New Cell Phone Connections55.70%107.20%
India
Percentage urban (%)
1995-2015
UrbanRural
199526.673.4
200027.772.3
200528.771.3
201030.369.7
201532.267.8
Women's Employment-Urban
1983-8415.10%
1987-8815.20%
1993-9415.50%
1999-0015.90%
2005-0616.60%400804.6604651163
Credit Cards(in Mn)Transaction (In bn)7.44.543255814
200410.12.04
2005142.97
2006173.9
2007224.7
Per Capita Income Growth
in bnGrowth rate
200322320032004200520062007
200424610%223246270302348
200527010%10%10%12%15%
200630212%
200734815%
Sheet1
1995
Working Population
0
0
2000
Share of Wallet
GDP
Sheet2
0.49495064360.51306690310.5284556653
0.58816552820.60294026250.5954064559
0.54009773540.54961252780.5493172989
0.64194035340.61483915110.5984832943
0.55315395240.54722569120.536677882
0.51282549210.50654396020.5212929082
2005
2010
2015
Sheet3
% of PFCE
Category2002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07
Food, Beverages & Groceries43%42%40%39%39%
Personal Care & Other Goods5%5%5%6%6%
Clothing & Footwear5%5%5%5%5%
Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,3%3%4%4%4%
Recreation & Cultural Services2%2%2%2%2%
Education2%2%2%2%2%
Rent, Fuel & Power13%13%12%12%11%
Medical Care & Health Services6%6%6%7%7%
Transport14%15%15%17%18%
Telecommunication1%2%2%2%2%
Other Misc Services5%6%7%6%5%
100%100%100%100%100%
GDP476
Share of PFCE58.10%
PFCE277
Food, Beverages & Groceries108
Personal Care & Other Goods15
Clothing & Footwear13
Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,10
Recreation & Cultural Services5
Education5
Rent, Fuel & Power32
Medical Care & Health Services19
Transport50
Telecommunication6
Other Misc Services14
277
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2002-03
Sheet4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006-07
-241046125455350060
25-29940674899045078
30-34829784319239786
35-39734003819935201
40-44651963391931277
45-49570402963927400
50-54487772522623550
55-5935403
YearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemale
20000-41272926636160931
9-May1237156474958967
14-Oct1150115999255019
15-191058215515550666
20-24955534981245741
25-29845544413540419
30-34749563919235764
35-39667853497431811
40-44587933080527988
45-49509062660624300
50-54377171934018377
55-59310491572415324
60-64262081294413264
65-6919976975410223
70-741367666906986
75-79815139444208
80-84409219542138
85-891484710774
90-94410200209
95-99753937
100+1165
727398
20050-41268946613660758
9-May1244946511859376
14-Oct1227556426758488
15-191141265955454572
20-241046125455350060
25-29940674899045078
30-34829784319239786
35-39734003819935201
40-44651963391931277
45-49570402963927400
50-54487772522623550
55-59354031791317490
60-64282061402014186
65-69226891092111768
70-741608776008487
75-79985846635195
80-84504223772665
85-8920659781087
90-94579283296
95-991186157
100+1697
20100-41265566590960647
9-May1245526507659476
14-Oct1237016471158990
15-191219866387258114
20-241130715901054061
25-291032345376849466
30-34924594800844451
35-39813394213239206
40-44717313707834653
45-49633663268730679
50-54548242818426640
55-59460112347922532
60-64324141609616318
65-69246741195412720
70-741853586329903
75-791184053986442
80-84625928783381
85-89261312181395
90-94824397427
95-991688682
100+251411
20150-41248766498359893
9-May1246246501059614
14-Oct1238866472359163
15-191230506436558686
20-241210706338157689
25-291118535829953553
30-341017485285148897
35-39908704697943891
40-44797014103438667
45-49699343586834065
50-54611563123029925
55-59520002638725613
60-64424332126421169
65-69286551387814777
70-7420420958010840
75-791389462397655
80-84769934024297
85-89332315051817
90-941066502564
95-99242121121
100+351916
India
Working Population Break Up
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemaleIndiaChinaBrazilRussiaUSUK
20000-41272926636160931127292127292200549%59%54%64%55%51%
5-91237156474958967123715123715201051%60%55%61%55%51%
10-141151159992551911511115011201553%60%55%60%54%52%
15-191058215515550666105821105821
20-249555349812457419555395553
25-298455444135404198455484554
30-347495639192357647495674956
35-396678534974318116678566785
40-445879330805279885879358793
45-495090626606243005090650906
50-543771719340183773771737717
55-5931491572415324314931049
60-642620812944132642620826208
65-69199769754102231997619976
70-7413676669069861367613676
75-7981513944420881518151
80-84492195421384924092
85-89148471077414841484
90-94410200209410200410
95-99753937753975
100+116511611
1046235
50031348%
20050-41268946613660758126894126894
9-May1244946511859376124494124494
14-Oct1227556426758488122755122755
15-191141265955454572114126114126
20-24104612545535060104612104612
25-299467489904578946794067
30-348297843192397868297882978
35-397340038199352017340073400
40-446519633919312776519665196
45-4957402963927400574057040
50-544877725226235504877748777
55-593540317913174903540335403
60-64282061420141862820628206
65-692268910921117682268922689
70-74168776008487168716087
75-7998584663519598589858
80-84542237726655425042
85-892659781872652065
90-94579283296579283579
95-99118615711861118
100+169716916
1134402
56147349%
20100-41265566590960647126556126556
9-May124552657659476124552124552
14-Oct1237016471158990123701123701
15-191219866387258114121986121986
20-24113715910546111371113071
25-291032345376849466103234103234
30-3492459488444519245992459
35-398133942132392068133981339
40-44717313778346537173171731
45-496336632687306796336663366
50-545482428184266405482454824
55-5946112347922532461146011
60-64324141696163183241432414
65-692467411954127202467424674
70-7418535863299031853518535
75-7911840539864421184011840
80-8462592878338162596259
85-8926131218139526132613
90-94824397427824397824
95-99168868216886168
100+251411251425
1220182
62603551%
20150-41248766498359893124876124876
9-May124624651059614124624124624
14-Oct1238866472359163123886123886
15-1912350643655868612350123050
20-2412170633815768912170121070
25-291118535829953553111853111853
30-341017485285148897101748101748
35-399087046979438919087090870
40-44797014134386677970179701
45-49699343586834656993469934
50-546115631230299256115661156
55-59520263872561352052000
60-644243321264211694243342433
65-692865513878147772865528655
70-74204209580108402042020420
75-7913894623976551389413894
80-8476993402429776997699
85-8933231505181733233323
90-941665025641661066
95-99242121121242121242
100+351916351935
1302535
68833253%
China
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-48528745859394288528785287
9-May9550650900446069550695506
14-Oct1029795432848651102979102979
15-19117961330556791179110079
20-241003745247547899100374100374
25-299573049205465259573095730
30-341201176163058487120117120117
35-3912580642316084912580125080
40-4410347528565019210347103047
45-498177242132396408177281772
50-548284842212406368284882848
55-595920530455287505920559205
60-64435612246321984356143561
65-6937431886918175374337043
70-742921414333148812921429214
75-7918803873610671880318803
80-84105542485807105510055
85-89448151425344484048
90-941873497381871087
95-991954914619549195
100+1941519419
1306049
76817359%
20100-4855456803932685585005
9-May8482945614392148482984829
14-Oct9525650747445099525695256
15-191026445412048524102644102644
20-241163306089755433116330116330
25-299951851930475889951899518
30-349483848639462009483894838
35-3911937609235811511937119037
40-441236576328460374123657123657
45-491014385180549633101438101438
50-547997940993389877997979979
55-5980844049739587808480084
60-645595528452275045595555955
65-69395832031195523958339583
70-743147715557159203147731477
75-792240510512118932240522405
80-8412240533869031224012240
85-895248245320352485248
90-94163456017416341634
95-993169322331693316
100+3993039939
1351512
81488160%
20150-48777347126406478777387773
9-May8458745455391328458784587
14-Oct8463345495391398463384633
15-199496650566443999496694966
20-2410261537514831010261102061
25-291154696035255118115469115469
30-349867851397472819867898678
35-3994104810345907941094010
40-44117785609757688117785117785
45-491218996214159757121899121899
50-549940550520488859940599405
55-59774753942638507747577475
60-647595837967379917595875958
65-695116125530256315116151161
70-743398416689172953398433984
75-792449711576129212449724497
80-8414927656383651492714927
85-8965902631395965906590
90-942189771141821892189
95-99489151338489151489
100+651748651765
1388601
82678260%
Brazil
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-4184392048839184318043
9-May17343883285111734317343
14-Oct16609844381661660916609
15-1917394881885771739417394
20-241795495788971795417954
25-291626287681861626216262
30-341433073872921433014330
35-3913351653168201335113351
40-4412734619465401273412734
45-4910677515455231067710677
50-5487954213458287958795
55-5968043224358068046804
60-64575236727085755075
65-6941481893225541484148
70-7429481308163929482948
75-792148923122521482148
80-84124751972812471247
85-89630254376630254630
90-942519915125199251
95-99722844722872
100+166916616
186831
10090754%
20100-41809186881418018000
9-May17958915588021795817958
14-Oct17306881184951730617306
15-1916521838481361652116521
20-2417216869185251721617216
25-2917741890188401774117741
30-34165079248126165016050
35-3914118689172271411814118
40-4413105636767381310513105
45-4912422599364291242212422
50-5410323493453891032310323
55-5983883966442283888388
60-6463602962339863606360
65-6946092102250746094609
70-74360215942836023602
75-792392120137323922392
80-84158565093515851585
85-89808320488808320808
90-94343131211343131343
95-99108416710841108
100+271116271127
198982
10936355%
20150-417437890085361743717437
9-May17924914287821792417924
14-Oct17923913587881792317923
15-1917226875784691722617226
20-241636982778931636916369
25-29173385578476173317033
30-3417535875187831753517535
35-391583677758611583615836
40-4413880673271481388013880
45-4912810617666331281012810
50-54124057546286124012040
55-5998804663521698809880
60-6478773663421578777877
65-6958122648316458125812
70-74438178522524384038
75-7929601257170429602960
80-84179272716517921792
85-891444056391441044
90-94444166279444166444
95-99148549514854148
100+401525401540
210048
11538355%
Russia
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-4765362934367657065
9-May65073333317365076507
14-Oct81734176399681738173
15-1912926152594112921292
20-2412438628161571243812438
25-29111455025512111411014
30-3410300512951711030010300
35-3995054691481495059505
40-4411421552558971142111421
45-49123056636367123012030
50-5410621483857831062110621
55-5981463571457581468146
60-6447991936286347994799
65-6975922844474875927592
70-7448101651315948104810
75-7944341297313644344434
80-841998420157819981998
85-89682126556682126682
90-942804423628044280
95-994153641541
100+303303
133151
8547564%
20100-474663835363174667466
9-May748361734307487048
14-Oct64993327317264996499
15-19817141694281718171
20-2412256855941122512025
25-2912288614561431228812288
30-3410824533954851082410824
35-39106149325129106110061
40-4491974443475491979197
45-4910896511657801089610896
50-541126358761761126311263
55-5997194193552697199719
60-6472412950429072417241
65-69494149625984944094
70-746862194686866086
75-793490139245134903490
80-84273768824927372737
85-89946168778946168946
90-942123318021233212
95-995174451751
100+414414
140318
8627361%
20150-471813689349271817181
9-May74473822362574477447
14-Oct741361234297417041
15-1965073326318165076507
20-248155414141481558155
25-2911875595459211187511875
30-3412405944697124012040
35-3910540511154291054010540
40-449718465856097189718
45-4987784115466387788778
50-5410223460756161022310223
55-5910352443359191035210352
60-6486933490520386938693
65-6962352311392362356235
70-743321177224433213321
75-7944861288319844864486
80-842204562164122042204
85-89132728214513271327
90-943114526531145311
95-994153641541
100+515515
136480
8168160%
US
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-4205941055310412059420594
9-May202541037798772025420254
14-Oct215691146105232156921569
15-192171811129105892171821718
20-2421411074710294214121041
25-29201311021599162013120131
30-34203511026610842035120351
35-392118010606105742118021180
40-442298211426115562298222982
45-492268611174115122268622686
50-54202499924103252024920249
55-5917241835088921724117241
60-64139962446855139913099
65-6910157473754201015710157
70-7485243832469285248524
75-7974443167427874447444
80-8456022174342856025602
85-893199182211631993199
90-94135336498913531353
95-993947731739477394
100+781068781078
299846
16586155%
20100-42145810996104622145821458
9-May2090310712101912090320903
14-Oct2091610716102002091620916
15-192251611542109742251622516
20-24226211157011512262122621
25-292192311140107822192321923
30-342081410517102972081420814
35-392062610365102612062620626
40-442120110574106272120121201
45-492283111309115232283122831
50-542240110980114212240122401
55-59197909621101691979019790
60-6416544791286331654416544
65-6912252572365291225212252
70-74913741335491379137
75-797194389410571947194
80-8456562235342056565656
85-8936401257238336403640
90-941659465119416591659
95-99508102405508102508
100+101138810113101
314691
17220755%
20150-42199511271107242199521995
9-May2174311142106012174321743
14-Oct215161126104902151621516
15-192179611177106192179621796
20-242335211950114022335223352
25-292343311930115032343323433
30-342254411412111312254422544
35-3921601060310457216021060
40-442064310334103092064320643
45-4921731047110602217321073
50-542255511119114362255522555
55-592191410659112552191421914
60-64193391459888193319033
65-6915528728882401552815528
70-741187534653118711087
75-7977823371441177827782
80-8455342214332055345534
85-8937341319241437343734
90-941924553137119241924
95-99635134501635134635
100+1321811413218132
329013
17657454%
UK
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-434461765168134463446
9-May35491819173035493549
14-Oct38311967186438313831
15-193970236193539703970
20-2438711965190638713871
25-2937171858185837173717
30-34416627229441664166
35-3946392297234246394639
40-4446342293234146344634
45-494271992235427427
50-5436761819185736763676
55-5939191931198839193919
60-6431161524159231163116
65-6927161306141127162716
70-742332182125023322332
75-791951838111219511951
80-84147756391414771477
85-89759242517759759
90-9434487257344344
95-999217759292
100+132111313
56645
2904951%
20100-436241857176736243624
9-May34481766168234483448
14-Oct35761836174135763576
15-193920216190439203920
20-24411521072741154115
25-294152331982415415
30-3438151904191138153815
35-394203290211342034203
40-4446292292233746294629
45-4946012273232846014601
50-543972196021239723972
55-5935871765182235873587
60-6437721840193237723772
65-6929321412152129322932
70-7424531148130424532453
75-79196287019219621962
80-84146758588114671467
85-89926315612926926
90-9436799268367367
95-991142392114114
100+182161818
57916
2933751%
20150-436841887179736843684
9-May36271858176936273627
14-Oct34761783169234763476
15-1936661885178136663666
20-244662881977466466
25-294260217528442604260
30-34411427923541144114
35-3938541924193138543854
40-444197287211041974197
45-4945992274232545994599
50-5445442240230445444544
55-5938831906197738833883
60-6434611687177434613461
65-6935631712185135633563
70-7426641250141326642664
75-792839341149283283
80-84149661887814961496
85-89940336604940940
90-94462133328462462
95-9912727100127127
100+243202424
57390
2991752%
Purnendu Kumar:
Led by Growth in Services Sector% Increase in growth over the previous year Services sector adding to GDP in a significant manner
GDP no's
1361.44186046510.107
476.74418604650.092
438.9767441860.067
435.90697674420.037
1199.25581395350.028
2236.32558139540.023
6986.79069767440.02
GDP
Growth rate
Per Capita Income1
223
246
270
302
348
in bn
Forex Growth
27.6790697674
38.576744186
57.8139534884
72.1395348837
77.2558139535
103.8604651163
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Services Growth
0.130.14
0.0630.211
0.0770.374
0.2150.411
0.5571.072
2005-06
2006-07
55%
21%
7%
6%
21%
37%
41%
107%
Womens employment
0.151
0.152
0.155
0.159
0.166
Women's Employment-Urban
Credit Cards
10.12.04
14.12.97
17.33.9
224.7
(in Mn)
Transaction (In bn)
Sheet1
GDPGrowth ratePrivate ConsumptionRetailRetail1313722.15590.85
China1,36110.70%70.00%418.847303.303
India4779.20%55.00%262.21214.53157.33104.88
Russia4396.70%40.00%70.80198.952325
Brazil4363.70%65.30%86.53219.894675
UK1,1992.80%58.10%35.40%
Japan2,2362.30%48.90%161.7
US6,9872.00%65.00%
Working Age Group
India
China
Brazil607.1368839855
Russia
US795.0293336552
UK
Japan
High Income Opportunities
Sector wise Employment
Self Employment
Working Women(in bn)
2001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07
Foreign Exchange Reserves27.738.657.872.177.3103.9
28%33%20%7%26%
Service SectorGrowth Rate %2005-062006-072005-062006-07
Tourist Arrivals13%14%3.91 Mn4.43 Mn
Passenger Cars Sales6.30%21.10%
Commercial Vehicle Sales7.70%37.40%
Domestic Air Passengers21.50%41.10%
New Cell Phone Connections55.70%107.20%
India
Percentage urban (%)
1995-2015
UrbanRural
199526.673.4
200027.772.3
200528.771.3
201030.369.7
201532.267.8
Women's Employment-Urban
1983-8415.10%
1987-8815.20%
1993-9415.50%
1999-0015.90%
2005-0616.60%400804.6604651163
Credit Cards(in Mn)Transaction (In bn)7.44.543255814
200410.12.04
2005142.97
2006173.9
2007224.7
Per Capita Income Growth
in bnGrowth rate
2002-0322320032004200520062007
2003-0424610%223246270302348
2004-0527010%10%10%12%15%
2005-0630212%
2006-0734815%
Sheet1
0
0
1995
Working Population
0
0
2000
Share of Wallet
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP
Sheet2
0.49495064360.51306690310.5284556653
0.58816552820.60294026250.5954064559
0.54009773540.54961252780.5493172989
0.64194035340.61483915110.5984832943
0.55315395240.54722569120.536677882
0.51282549210.50654396020.5212929082
2005
2010
2015
Sheet3
% of PFCE
Category2002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07
Food, Beverages & Groceries43%42%40%39%39%
Personal Care & Other Goods5%5%5%6%6%
Clothing & Footwear5%5%5%5%5%
Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,3%3%4%4%4%
Recreation & Cultural Services2%2%2%2%2%
Education2%2%2%2%2%
Rent, Fuel & Power13%13%12%12%11%
Medical Care & Health Services6%6%6%7%7%
Transport14%15%15%17%18%
Telecommunication1%2%2%2%2%
Other Misc Services5%6%7%6%5%
100%100%100%100%100%
GDP476
Share of PFCE58.10%
PFCE277
Food, Beverages & Groceries108
Personal Care & Other Goods15
Clothing & Footwear13
Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,10
Recreation & Cultural Services5
Education5
Rent, Fuel & Power32
Medical Care & Health Services19
Transport50
Telecommunication6
Other Misc Services14
277
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2002-03
Sheet4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006-07
-241046125455350060
25-29940674899045078
30-34829784319239786
35-39734003819935201
40-44651963391931277
45-49570402963927400
50-54487772522623550
55-5935403
YearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemale
20000-41272926636160931
9-May1237156474958967
14-Oct1150115999255019
15-191058215515550666
20-24955534981245741
25-29845544413540419
30-34749563919235764
35-39667853497431811
40-44587933080527988
45-49509062660624300
50-54377171934018377
55-59310491572415324
60-64262081294413264
65-6919976975410223
70-741367666906986
75-79815139444208
80-84409219542138
85-891484710774
90-94410200209
95-99753937
100+1165
727398
20050-41268946613660758
9-May1244946511859376
14-Oct1227556426758488
15-191141265955454572
20-241046125455350060
25-29940674899045078
30-34829784319239786
35-39734003819935201
40-44651963391931277
45-49570402963927400
50-54487772522623550
55-59354031791317490
60-64282061402014186
65-69226891092111768
70-741608776008487
75-79985846635195
80-84504223772665
85-8920659781087
90-94579283296
95-991186157
100+1697
20100-41265566590960647
9-May1245526507659476
14-Oct1237016471158990
15-191219866387258114
20-241130715901054061
25-291032345376849466
30-34924594800844451
35-39813394213239206
40-44717313707834653
45-49633663268730679
50-54548242818426640
55-59460112347922532
60-64324141609616318
65-69246741195412720
70-741853586329903
75-791184053986442
80-84625928783381
85-89261312181395
90-94824397427
95-991688682
100+251411
20150-41248766498359893
9-May1246246501059614
14-Oct1238866472359163
15-191230506436558686
20-241210706338157689
25-291118535829953553
30-341017485285148897
35-39908704697943891
40-44797014103438667
45-49699343586834065
50-54611563123029925
55-59520002638725613
60-64424332126421169
65-69286551387814777
70-7420420958010840
75-791389462397655
80-84769934024297
85-89332315051817
90-941066502564
95-99242121121
100+351916
India
Working Population Break Up
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemaleIndiaChinaBrazilRussiaUSUK
20000-41272926636160931127292127292200549%59%54%64%55%51%
5-91237156474958967123715123715201051%60%55%61%55%51%
10-141151159992551911511115011201553%60%55%60%54%52%
15-191058215515550666105821105821
20-249555349812457419555395553
25-298455444135404198455484554
30-347495639192357647495674956
35-396678534974318116678566785
40-445879330805279885879358793
45-495090626606243005090650906
50-543771719340183773771737717
55-5931491572415324314931049
60-642620812944132642620826208
65-69199769754102231997619976
70-7413676669069861367613676
75-7981513944420881518151
80-84492195421384924092
85-89148471077414841484
90-94410200209410200410
95-99753937753975
100+116511611
1046235
50031348%
20050-41268946613660758126894126894
9-May1244946511859376124494124494
14-Oct1227556426758488122755122755
15-191141265955454572114126114126
20-24104612545535060104612104612
25-299467489904578946794067
30-348297843192397868297882978
35-397340038199352017340073400
40-446519633919312776519665196
45-4957402963927400574057040
50-544877725226235504877748777
55-593540317913174903540335403
60-64282061420141862820628206
65-692268910921117682268922689
70-74168776008487168716087
75-7998584663519598589858
80-84542237726655425042
85-892659781872652065
90-94579283296579283579
95-99118615711861118
100+169716916
1134402
56147349%
20100-41265566590960647126556126556
9-May124552657659476124552124552
14-Oct1237016471158990123701123701
15-191219866387258114121986121986
20-24113715910546111371113071
25-291032345376849466103234103234
30-3492459488444519245992459
35-398133942132392068133981339
40-44717313778346537173171731
45-496336632687306796336663366
50-545482428184266405482454824
55-5946112347922532461146011
60-64324141696163183241432414
65-692467411954127202467424674
70-7418535863299031853518535
75-7911840539864421184011840
80-8462592878338162596259
85-8926131218139526132613
90-94824397427824397824
95-99168868216886168
100+251411251425
1220182
62603551%
20150-41248766498359893124876124876
9-May124624651059614124624124624
14-Oct1238866472359163123886123886
15-1912350643655868612350123050
20-2412170633815768912170121070
25-291118535829953553111853111853
30-341017485285148897101748101748
35-399087046979438919087090870
40-44797014134386677970179701
45-49699343586834656993469934
50-546115631230299256115661156
55-59520263872561352052000
60-644243321264211694243342433
65-692865513878147772865528655
70-74204209580108402042020420
75-7913894623976551389413894
80-8476993402429776997699
85-8933231505181733233323
90-941665025641661066
95-99242121121242121242
100+351916351935
1302535
68833253%
China
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-48528745859394288528785287
9-May9550650900446069550695506
14-Oct1029795432848651102979102979
15-19117961330556791179110079
20-241003745247547899100374100374
25-299573049205465259573095730
30-341201176163058487120117120117
35-3912580642316084912580125080
40-4410347528565019210347103047
45-498177242132396408177281772
50-548284842212406368284882848
55-595920530455287505920559205
60-64435612246321984356143561
65-6937431886918175374337043
70-742921414333148812921429214
75-7918803873610671880318803
80-84105542485807105510055
85-89448151425344484048
90-941873497381871087
95-991954914619549195
100+1941519419
1306049
76817359%
20100-4855456803932685585005
9-May8482945614392148482984829
14-Oct9525650747445099525695256
15-191026445412048524102644102644
20-241163306089755433116330116330
25-299951851930475889951899518
30-349483848639462009483894838
35-3911937609235811511937119037
40-441236576328460374123657123657
45-491014385180549633101438101438
50-547997940993389877997979979
55-5980844049739587808480084
60-645595528452275045595555955
65-69395832031195523958339583
70-743147715557159203147731477
75-792240510512118932240522405
80-8412240533869031224012240
85-895248245320352485248
90-94163456017416341634
95-993169322331693316
100+3993039939
1351512
81488160%
20150-48777347126406478777387773
9-May8458745455391328458784587
14-Oct8463345495391398463384633
15-199496650566443999496694966
20-2410261537514831010261102061
25-291154696035255118115469115469
30-349867851397472819867898678
35-3994104810345907941094010
40-44117785609757688117785117785
45-491218996214159757121899121899
50-549940550520488859940599405
55-59774753942638507747577475
60-647595837967379917595875958
65-695116125530256315116151161
70-743398416689172953398433984
75-792449711576129212449724497
80-8414927656383651492714927
85-8965902631395965906590
90-942189771141821892189
95-99489151338489151489
100+651748651765
1388601
82678260%
Brazil
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-4184392048839184318043
9-May17343883285111734317343
14-Oct16609844381661660916609
15-1917394881885771739417394
20-241795495788971795417954
25-291626287681861626216262
30-341433073872921433014330
35-3913351653168201335113351
40-4412734619465401273412734
45-4910677515455231067710677
50-5487954213458287958795
55-5968043224358068046804
60-64575236727085755075
65-6941481893225541484148
70-7429481308163929482948
75-792148923122521482148
80-84124751972812471247
85-89630254376630254630
90-942519915125199251
95-99722844722872
100+166916616
186831
10090754%
20100-41809186881418018000
9-May17958915588021795817958
14-Oct17306881184951730617306
15-1916521838481361652116521
20-2417216869185251721617216
25-2917741890188401774117741
30-34165079248126165016050
35-3914118689172271411814118
40-4413105636767381310513105
45-4912422599364291242212422
50-5410323493453891032310323
55-5983883966442283888388
60-6463602962339863606360
65-6946092102250746094609
70-74360215942836023602
75-792392120137323922392
80-84158565093515851585
85-89808320488808320808
90-94343131211343131343
95-99108416710841108
100+271116271127
198982
10936355%
20150-417437890085361743717437
9-May17924914287821792417924
14-Oct17923913587881792317923
15-1917226875784691722617226
20-241636982778931636916369
25-29173385578476173317033
30-3417535875187831753517535
35-391583677758611583615836
40-4413880673271481388013880
45-4912810617666331281012810
50-54124057546286124012040
55-5998804663521698809880
60-6478773663421578777877
65-6958122648316458125812
70-74438178522524384038
75-7929601257170429602960
80-84179272716517921792
85-891444056391441044
90-94444166279444166444
95-99148549514854148
100+401525401540
210048
11538355%
Russia
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-4765362934367657065
9-May65073333317365076507
14-Oct81734176399681738173
15-1912926152594112921292
20-2412438628161571243812438
25-29111455025512111411014
30-3410300512951711030010300
35-3995054691481495059505
40-4411421552558971142111421
45-49123056636367123012030
50-5410621483857831062110621
55-5981463571457581468146
60-6447991936286347994799
65-6975922844474875927592
70-7448101651315948104810
75-7944341297313644344434
80-841998420157819981998
85-89682126556682126682
90-942804423628044280
95-994153641541
100+303303
133151
8547564%
20100-474663835363174667466
9-May748361734307487048
14-Oct64993327317264996499
15-19817141694281718171
20-2412256855941122512025
25-2912288614561431228812288
30-3410824533954851082410824
35-39106149325129106110061
40-4491974443475491979197
45-4910896511657801089610896
50-541126358761761126311263
55-5997194193552697199719
60-6472412950429072417241
65-69494149625984944094
70-746862194686866086
75-793490139245134903490
80-84273768824927372737
85-89946168778946168946
90-942123318021233212
95-995174451751
100+414414
140318
8627361%
20150-471813689349271817181
9-May74473822362574477447
14-Oct741361234297417041
15-1965073326318165076507
20-248155414141481558155
25-2911875595459211187511875
30-3412405944697124012040
35-3910540511154291054010540
40-449718465856097189718
45-4987784115466387788778
50-5410223460756161022310223
55-5910352443359191035210352
60-6486933490520386938693
65-6962352311392362356235
70-743321177224433213321
75-7944861288319844864486
80-842204562164122042204
85-89132728214513271327
90-943114526531145311
95-994153641541
100+515515
136480
8168160%
US
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-4205941055310412059420594
9-May202541037798772025420254
14-Oct215691146105232156921569
15-192171811129105892171821718
20-2421411074710294214121041
25-29201311021599162013120131
30-34203511026610842035120351
35-392118010606105742118021180
40-442298211426115562298222982
45-492268611174115122268622686
50-54202499924103252024920249
55-5917241835088921724117241
60-64139962446855139913099
65-6910157473754201015710157
70-7485243832469285248524
75-7974443167427874447444
80-8456022174342856025602
85-893199182211631993199
90-94135336498913531353
95-993947731739477394
100+781068781078
299846
16586155%
20100-42145810996104622145821458
9-May2090310712101912090320903
14-Oct2091610716102002091620916
15-192251611542109742251622516
20-24226211157011512262122621
25-292192311140107822192321923
30-342081410517102972081420814
35-392062610365102612062620626
40-442120110574106272120121201
45-492283111309115232283122831
50-542240110980114212240122401
55-59197909621101691979019790
60-6416544791286331654416544
65-6912252572365291225212252
70-74913741335491379137
75-797194389410571947194
80-8456562235342056565656
85-8936401257238336403640
90-941659465119416591659
95-99508102405508102508
100+101138810113101
314691
17220755%
20150-42199511271107242199521995
9-May2174311142106012174321743
14-Oct215161126104902151621516
15-192179611177106192179621796
20-242335211950114022335223352
25-292343311930115032343323433
30-342254411412111312254422544
35-3921601060310457216021060
40-442064310334103092064320643
45-4921731047110602217321073
50-542255511119114362255522555
55-592191410659112552191421914
60-64193391459888193319033
65-6915528728882401552815528
70-741187534653118711087
75-7977823371441177827782
80-8455342214332055345534
85-8937341319241437343734
90-941924553137119241924
95-99635134501635134635
100+1321811413218132
329013
17657454%
UK
YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale
20050-434461765168134463446
9-May35491819173035493549
14-Oct38311967186438313831
15-193970236193539703970
20-2438711965190638713871
25-2937171858185837173717
30-34416627229441664166
35-3946392297234246394639
40-4446342293234146344634
45-494271992235427427
50-5436761819185736763676
55-5939191931198839193919
60-6431161524159231163116
65-6927161306141127162716
70-742332182125023322332
75-791951838111219511951
80-84147756391414771477
85-89759242517759759
90-9434487257344344
95-999217759292
100+132111313
56645
2904951%
20100-436241857176736243624
9-May34481766168234483448
14-Oct35761836174135763576
15-193920216190439203920
20-24411521072741154115
25-294152331982415415
30-3438151904191138153815
35-394203290211342034203
40-4446292292233746294629
45-4946012273232846014601
50-543972196021239723972
55-5935871765182235873587
60-6437721840193237723772
65-6929321412152129322932
70-7424531148130424532453
75-79196287019219621962
80-84146758588114671467
85-89926315612926926
90-9436799268367367
95-991142392114114
100+182161818
57916
2933751%
20150-436841887179736843684
9-May36271858176936273627
14-Oct34761783169234763476
15-1936661885178136663666
20-244662881977466466
25-294260217528442604260
30-34411427923541144114
35-3938541924193138543854
40-444197287211041974197
45-4945992274232545994599
50-5445442240230445444544
55-5938831906197738833883
60-6434611687177434613461
65-6935631712185135633563
70-7426641250141326642664
75-792839341149283283
80-84149661887814961496
85-89940336604940940
90-94462133328462462
95-9912727100127127
100+243202424
57390
2991752%
Purnendu Kumar:
Driven from Consumption Throughout the 1.1 Billion Population5-7 millionSuper Rich70 80 millionAfford Cars, Private Healthcare & Foreign travel250 - 300 million
Afford goods like Refrigerators , Scooters & Colour TVs600-700 million (Generally Rural)Afford simple industrial products e.g. bicycles , radios , textilesPoverty Line = income less than $ 1/day Source: McKinsey, 60 % of Indias population are under 24 years
With High Private ConsumptionGDP US$ 935 billionPrivate ConsumptionUS$ 580 Billion(62%)Public Spending and Capital FormationUS$ 355 Billion (38%)Retail US$ 342 Billion(59%)Non RetailUS$ 238 Billion(41%)Urban (5,100 towns) US$ 154 Billion(45%)Rural (6,27,000 villages)US$ 188 Billion(55%)Modern retail US$ 12 billion 8% of urban retail spendsModern retail NegligibleFoodApparelBeveragesFootwearConsumer durablesAppliancesStationeryKitchen utensilsFurnitureFurnishingsSports goodsHealth & BeautyPersonal CareJewelleryTimingTransport CommunicationRecreationCultural ServicesEducationRentUtilitiesOther ServicesSource: Central Statistical Organization (CS0) and Technopak Analysis Conversion rate: 1 US$ = 40.86 Rs.
About US $530 Billion Retail Market by 2012GDP* US$ 1,450 billionPrivate ConsumptionUS$ 870 Billion(60%)Public Spending and Capital FormationUS$ 580 Billion (40%)RetailUS$ 530 Billion(61%)Non RetailUS$ 340 Billion(39%)UrbanUS$ 252 Billion(47.5%)RuralUS$ 278 Billion(52.5%)Modern retail US$ 78 billion 31% of urban retail spendsModern retail US$ 9 billion 3% of rural retail spendsSource: Technopak Analysis *All figures are in nominal terms after taking into account inflation
*
Which Makes Indian Retail an Attractive MarketIndia tops the Global Retail Development Index
ORGANISED v/s UNORGANISEDThe Indian retail market, over the last decade, has been increasingly leaning towards organized retailing formats. The pattern in domestic retailing is altering in the favor of organized modern retailing, a big change from the traditional plethora of unorganized family-owned businesses. Rapid urbanization, changes in shopping pattern, demographic dividend and pro-active measures by the Government are abetting the growth of the retail sector in India.
Organised retail in India is expected to increase from 5 per cent of the total market in 2008 to 14 - 18 per cent of the total retail market and reach US$ 450 billion by 2015
According to a report titled 'India Organised Retail Market 2010', published by Knight Frank India, during 2010-12 around 55 million square feet (sq ft) of retail space will be ready in Mumbai, national capital region (NCR), Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad and Pune. Besides, between 2010 and 2012, the organised retail real estate stock will grow from the existing 41 million sq ft to 95 million sq ft.Driven by the growth of organised retail coupled with changing consumer habits, food retail sector in India is set to be more than double to US$ 150 billion by 2025.
Organized Retailing in India (2006)
Organized retailINR 28,000 croreClothing, Textiles &Fashion accessories39%Footwear9%Jewellery & Watches7%Mobile handsets & accessories3%Health & Beauty (including services)2%Food & Grocery18%Durables13%Books, Music & Gifts3%Home3%
*
Modern Retail Organized ChannelsThe share of organized retail is less than 3% of the total retail market The size of modern retail is about US$ 8 Billion and has grown by 35% CAGR in last five years
*
.. but Rapid Transformation is AnticipatedAnd may reach a share of 25% by 2017
Chart2
34212
373.46417.832
407.82268826.498352
445.34237529639.376551072
486.313873823258.513554893
53087
800200
Total Retail
Organized Retail
US$ Billion
Current Size & Future Projections for Indian Retail Market
Investments-New
to be updated - 16 Jan 2007
Retail Investment Scenario
Note:Investment to include Debt + Equity
US$ 145Rs
US$ 1 Million4.5Rs / Crores
Serial #NameFormatLevelSize of Investment by 2011BasisForeign
1Reliance6,00027,0000%0
2Kumar Birla3,00013,5000%0
3Bharti - Walmart7,00031,50050%3500
4ITC2,0009,0000
5TescoF&GL11,0004,500100%1000
6CarrefourF&GL11,0004,500100%1000
7MetroF&GL11,0004,500021,000
8Future Group5002,2500
9IkeaSpL15002,250100%500
10Oil Majors (Reliance, HP, IOC etc)2,0009,0000
11Ratan Tata + Partners1,5006,7500
12DS Group2501,1250
13Godrej - Aadhar + NB2501,1250
14M&M2501,1250
15Shoppers Stop2501,1250
16Spencers / RPG2501,1250
17WatsonsSpL22501,125100%250
18Essar2009000
19Trent2009000
20Apollo Pharmacy1004500
21Heritage1004500
22Landmark - Lifestyle1004500
23Nilgiri's1004500
24ShopriteF&GL31004500
25Subhiksha1004500
26Trinethra - Fabmall1004500
27Vishal Megamart1004500
28Arvind Brands502250
29Macdonald'sF&BL1502250
30Madura Garments502250
31Planet Sports (Various formats)502250
32Raymond502250
33VLCC502250
34Yum!F&BL1502250
35Barista251130
36Benetton251130
37Caf Coffee Day251130
38CostaF&BL2251130
39Dollar StoreF&GL3251130
40eBay251130
41Fabindia251130
42Globus251130
43Guardian251130
44Lifeken251130
45Marico (Kaya)251130
46Medicine Shoppe251130
47Next251130
48Nike251130
49Reebok - Adidas251130
50SparF&GL3251130
51Titan / Tanishq251130
52Viveks251130
53Others2,0009,0000
54Jumbo502250
55
56
57
58
59
60
Total31,050139,7256,250
Assuming investments by global retailers40%12,420
13000
Invest
Investment pattern
% Of Players following a particulr investment patternYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8
45%10%20%25%15%10%10%10%100%
35%15%25%20%15%10%10%5%100%
20%15%25%25%20%10%5%100%
100%
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8
5%9%11%7%5%5%5%0%
0%5%9%7%5%4%4%2%
0%0%3%5%5%4%2%1%
Overall Investment Pattern5%14%23%19%15%12%10%3%
75%25%
USD Bn investments31,05023,3657,685
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6
Birla Investment Pattern7%20%34%23%9%7%100%
146.2447.1742.5515.5198.3165.82215.4
RelianceYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 11
Rs. Cr.30,465101.3993.45836.67806.53593.51165.4813.93062.14185.81997.0486.8422.6
USD Mn6,770Cum.1094.77279006996931.3633087414737.876164891618331.379197844519496.73933710220310.667495419823372.79192760227558.637452498529555.651779880430042.443577558130465.0029154612
100%3%19%26%12%4%3%10%14%7%2%1%
66%33%
Projections
20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
1Likely Roll Out of Investments5%14%23%19%15%12%10%3%
10.0450.14250.230.18750.14750.120.10.0275
2Sales Multiple In 4th year of operations4.5
Five Year's Average3.2
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
2.32.93.444.65.35.96.67.48.5
3Growth rate % year on year20%15%15%15%15%12%12%12%15%
25%18%18%
AInvestments likely to be made by all players (domestic + foreign)US $ b31.051.44.47.15.84.63.73.10.9
2nd Wave of Investments1.13.65.84.73.73.02.5
81%25.0
BLikely Revenue for the above investmentsUS $ b3.214.334.054.775.898.0121.3142.0161.9183.4
From 2nd wave of investments2.611.527.444.161.0
TOTAL REVENUES3.214.334.054.775.8100.6132.8169.4205.9244.4
growth342%139%61%39%33%32%28%22%19%
CExisting Modern Retail SizeUS $ b1213.415.116.918.921.123.726.529.733.337.3
(growing @ 12%)12.0%12.0%12%
1531711912142400%
DTotal Modern Retail Market SizeUS $ b121729517497124.2159.4199.1239.2281.7
CAGR till 201152%1828426497
CAGR till 201539.3%16.723.332.445.262.987.7122.1170.1237.0330.1
CAGR till 202031.3%543
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172020
ETotal Retail Market (US $ b)Total Retail34237340844548653059065873381680089199311061232
Organized Retail121826395987124159199239200167140117547
Growth49%49%49%49%49%43%28%25%20%-16%18%
11.9%11.4%11.4%
F% Share of Total Retail4%4%7%11%15%18%21%24%27%29%35%44%
4Investments likely to be made by top 5 playersUS $ b19.00.92.74.43.62.82.31.90.50.00.0
61%
5Likely Revenue for the above investmentsUS $ b2.08.720.833.546.459.974.386.999.0112.2
45%53%41%
9%12%
6Cumulative RevenueUS $ b2.010.731.565.0111.4171.4245.6332.5431.5543.8
4Investments likely to be made by the foreign playersUS $ b12.40.61.82.92.31.81.51.20.30.00.0
40%
5Likely Revenue for the above investmentsUS $ b1.35.713.621.930.334.939.143.849.056.4
31%
6Cumulative RevenueUS $ b1.37.020.642.572.8107.7146.8190.5239.5295.9
7Cumulative COGS (% Of Revenue)75%1.05.215.531.954.680.8110.1142.9179.6221.9
8Cumulative Local Sourcing (% COGS)50%0.52.67.715.927.340.455.071.489.8111.0
9Calculation for Valuation
Ratio of Sales to Market Cap139.0643.7549.0056.35
Debt :Equity50%19.521.924.528.2
Proposed % Of Equity Dilution30%5.866.567.358.45
Share of FII out of this equity70%4.104.595.155.92
10Employment Creation
10a.Retail
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
Sales per sqft (From AVB)Rs per sqft10000
Space Requiredm sqft136157176197221254
Conversion of US $ to Rs45
Front end employeeSpace per employee4000.30.40.40.50.60.6
Back end employees( Branch/Warehouse)30%0.10.10.10.10.20.2
Totalmillion0.40.50.60.60.70.8
Total - Modern Retail1.41.82.32.93.54.1
Check
Employees Cost as % of sales4%1.21.41.61.82.02.3
Cost per employee per annum Rs
Sales70%146315
Regional office and Branch10%445673
Warehouse/ Logistics20%129102
172808
Validated from AVB Business Plan (Rs. 15,000 per month per employee)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
Employees required0.320.360.410.460.510.59
10b.Employment because of incremental Export
Export Value per yearUS $ b1.04.310.216.422.726.229.332.836.842.3
Employee Cost as % of Sales15%0.10.61.52.53.43.94.44.95.56.3
Cost per employee155,4780.991.141.271.421.601.83
Assuming high Attrition rate
11Cess CalculationYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
Total Retail marketUS $ b300426650
Total Investments in RetailUS $ b31
Revenue for modern formatsUS $ b3.214.334.054.775.887.297.7109.4122.5140.9
% Share of modern format1%18%22%
Assuming Share which qualifies for cess85%2.712.128.946.564.474.183.093.0104.1119.7
Proposed Cess Charged1%0.030.120.290.470.640.740.830.931.041.20
CumulativeUS $ b0.00.10.40.91.52.33.14.05.16.3
Projections
1
Incremental Export Potential - Cumulative (US $ Bn)
Graphs
Share of modern retail4%16%28%
Anil Rajpal:Based on Ratio of Store staff to Sales Manager and other senior members
Anil Rajpal:Based on Ratio of Store staff to Sales Manager and other senior members
Total Retail
Organized Retail
Years (2011, 2015, 2020)
US$ Bn
Indian Retail Projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Graphs
33612
375.98416.670442
420.72609629.3205855
470.79250142450.90810025
526.816809093573.61406732
589.508009375696.9689399484
1011.3830344046281.7169527488
Total Retail
Organized Retail
US$ Billion
Current Size & Future Projections for Indian Retail Market
DataSheet
27th December 2006Total Investments25Bn $60-65% will go to F&G
Domestic1560-65%
Emp. Elasticity for Retail Industry0.8Foreign10
Overall CAGR13%11.9%31%No. of retail players40
Cum OrgYearGDPRetailCAGR - Org RetailOrg Ret% RetailCAGR - ManpowerManpowerRetailOrganizedForeignShareF&G Retail
12200693033052%124%42%200630016555%
3020071051369185%0.3620073.46819%
5820081188413287%0.51200810.11536%
10020091342462429%0.72200921.57351%
164201015165176412%1.02201042729.52846%
262201117135799717%1.4520117535.99137%337,500
3832012193664525%12219%20%1.74201241.3896534%
5352013218871915221%2.08201346.35640830%3375
7262014247280019024%2.50201450.992048827%
9632015279489218%23827%3.00201563756.0912536824%
12442016315799328028%3.60201661.70037904822%
157520173567110733130%4.32201741%% retail40%
196520184031123339132%5.19201812601681.3
242620194555137346134%6.222019GDP growth7.50%8%9.30%9.50%
297020205147153054436%7.472020CHINA PWC
11.4%30%Rmb billion20002001200220032004
Total Retail34153760420345845395
Exchange9.70%10.10%11.80%9.10%17.70%13.20%
55967.633589888Growth rates8.047USD424467522570670
Anil's estimates2006330124%Organized12%20%
include20115319418%50.9258108612134.0872374798
inflation201568819528%CAGR27%132
2020101134434%
RealNominal
RetailGrowthGDPgrowth% retailGDP nomgrowth% retail% retailNew RetailOrganizedPenetrationPenetrationTARGET
200633093035%93035%35%326124%4%4%
201157911.9%13668.0%42%171313%34%35%6009416%16%20%116
201589211.4%18598.0%48%279413%32%35%97817918%20%30%268
2020153011.4%27328.0%56%514713%30%35%180234419%22%36%551
5%inflation
OrganizedPenetration
Anil's2006330124%
estimates201155611.0%9417%
201581410.0%17922%
202012539%34427%
SCENARIOS
Retail-India-LATEST-V3
PROJECTIONS (INDIA):80411331721
300427637
Current prices, USD Bn
200620112015
GDP93017132794
CAGR:13.00%13.00%
Retail330579892
% of GDP35%34%32%
CAGR:11.90%11.40%
USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities
2006330149182111
Share:45%55%
2015892446446334
Share:50%50%
Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market8%2006201020152020
930126518592732
CALCULATIONS:
(USD Bn)2006
330(Total Retail Sales)
111(Top 150 cities retail sales)
Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market
2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices
6%14956%44219%
7%15653%46318%
8%16451%48517%
9%17149%50816%
10%17946%53116%
11%18844%55615%
12%19642%58214%
13%20541%60814%
14%21439%63513%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)
15%22437%66413%Year 2011ShareUSD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)
16%23436%69312%Share of top 528%49219,265
17%24434%72412%Share of next 4520%35155,5543618Rs. Cr. per player
18%25533%75511%Share of top 5049%83374,819
19%26631%78711%
20%27730%82110%Total for 150 cities171788276
Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)
Top 50 PlayersTop 5 PlayersTotalTop 50Top 5
Investment30.019
Urban share of investment96%96%
Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%
Investment in Top 150 cities2214
Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5
Additional Turnover - Top 5075.647.9
Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55
Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85
2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)8349
Curret market share of top 50
in top 150 cities:4%
Retail-India-LATEST-V3
000
000
000
GDP
Retail
US$ Billion
GDP and Retail Projections for India
CRISIL
2005-62006-72010-11
284.0222222222307.3111111111419.6222222222
8.40%8.30%8.40%
11.777777777815.044444444439.9333333333
SharePenetration
F&B951074%9318%1%
Clothing11909%19537%16%
CD6225%10620%17%
Home3883%346%9%
Jewelrt5494%346%6%
Beauty2812%102%4%
Footwear1341%448%33%
Books1071%143%13%
12781530
Private Label SizeAAAAAAB+BCDAAAAAAB+
Total size12Bn $2010
Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)
Category shareSizePrivate LabelRs. Crore%
Food & Grocery25%3.0179%1065937.533.7533.753021.616.210.832.72.72.4194.425%
Consumer Durables22%2.6230%35414036363211.28.45.60000169.222%
FMCG& Personal Care & Beauty3%0.3135%4944.54.054.053.61.080.810.540.450.4050.4050.3620.253%
Apparel and Accessories9%1.1375%38141816.216.214.43.62.71.8000072.99%
Home Furnishing + Dcor4%0.4975%165787.27.26.41.280.960.64000031.684%
Pharmacy0%0.0620%500.80.720.720.640.320.240.1600003.60%
Footwear3%0.3075%10174.54.054.053.61.441.080.72000019.443%
Furniture13%1.5190%61032421.621.619.24.83.62.4000097.213%
43.63.63.20.640.480.320.20.180.180.1616.562%
43.63.63.20.640.480.32000015.842%
1513.513.5120000000547%
10.90.90.80.40.30.200004.51%
1.21.081.080.960.240.180.120.150.1350.1350.125.41%
54.54.541.61.20.80.50.450.450.423.43%
21.81.81.60.80.60.4000091%
Comparison of Private Label with Branded Players65.45.44.81.61.20.8000025.23%
Private LabelBranded Market Leader2.42.162.161.921.280.960.64000011.521%
F&G10659growth rate177.9160.11160.11142.3252.5239.3926.264.33.873.873.44774.09100%
Consumer Durables3541800010%11713LG2006
FMCG & Personal Care494100011%1870Nirma/Colgate2004
Apparel & Accessories381420020%415Levis2004
Home Furnishing & Dcor1657112025%3418bombay dyeing2005
Pharmacy5036012%634apollo
Footwear10177345%937bata2005
Furniture610380025%1953godrej2006
2010 Market Size
Brand LeaderOwn Label
Consumer Durables120003500
FMCG & Personal Care1800500
Apparel & Accessories4004000
Home Furnishings35001500
Pharmacy65050
Footwear9001000
Furniture20006000
CRISIL
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Brand Leader
Own Label
Estimated Turnover (Rs. Crore)
Comparison of Own Label Leader with Brand Leader - 2010
China
ParameterChinaIndiaChina
199620032005199620032006CAGR
Per capita GDP (USD)6751,109710225400400.9512.32962248.6%
Size of retail market (USD billion)2254002157.50%17%20%
Share of organised trade (per cent)7-8~17< 416.8756868102.522%
102.8
Table 2New CAGR20%
CountryShare of organised trade (per cent) (2003)Rmb billion20002001200220032004PWC
India4Total Retail34153760420345845395
China17Exchange9.70%10.10%11.80%9.10%17.70%13.20%
Poland208.047USD424467522570670
Indonesia30Organized12%20%
Russia3350.9258108612134.0872374798
Brazil35CAGR27%132
Thailand40
Malaysia55E&Y20042005e
USA85Rmb bn54006000
USD bn628
199520012005e
Rmb bn199436004608
USD bn435
80.50%28%
CAGR12.80%
Access AsiaForecasts
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Rmb bn1986.62395.52644.82827.53023.13318.93586.83832.44089.84347.14604.5
growth27%20%10.40%6.90%6.90%9.80%8.10%6.80%6.70%6.30%5.90%
USD bn246.9297.7328.7351.4375.7412.4445.7476.3508.2540.2572.2
5%20%
12.3CAGR25.0%114.4
115.0
Access AsiaPWCForecast
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Rmb bn1986.62395.52644.82827.53023.1341537604203458453956042.4
growth27%20%10.40%6.90%6.90%9.70%10.10%11.80%9.10%17.70%12%
USD bn246.9297.7328.7351.4375.7424467522570670751
5%20%
12.3CAGR28.5%150.2
151.5
Thailand200220032004
THB bn233.5259.8263.4
Total539475776060528
Groc318503387735267
Mod Groc219582404126423
69%71%75%
Retail-India-V2
PROJECTIONS (INDIA):80411331721
300427637
Current prices, USD Bn
200620102015
GDP93013101974
CAGR:8.95%8.72%
Retail330470701
% of GDP35%36%36%
CAGR:9.23%8.33%
USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities
2006330149182111
Share:45%55%
2015701350350263
Share:50%50%
Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market8%2006201020152020
930126518592732
CALCULATIONS:
(USD Bn)2006
330(Total Retail Sales)
111(Top 150 cities retail sales)
Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market
2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices
6%14956%44219%
7%15653%46318%
8%16451%48517%
9%17149%50816%
10%17946%53116%
11%18844%55615%
12%19642%58214%
13%20541%60814%
14%21439%63513%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)
15%22437%66413%Year 2011ShareUSD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)
16%23436%69312%Share of top 528%49219,265
17%24434%72412%Share of next 4520%35155,5543618Rs. Cr. per player
18%25533%75511%Share of top 5049%83374,819
19%26631%78711%
20%27730%82110%Total for 150 cities171788276
Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)
Top 50 PlayersTop 5 PlayersTotalTop 50Top 5
Investment30.019
Urban share of investment96%96%
Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%
Investment in Top 150 cities2214
Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5
Additional Turnover - Top 5075.647.9
Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55
Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85
2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)8349
Curret market share of top 50
in top 150 cities:4%
Retail-India-V2
000
000
000
GDP
Retail
US$ Billion
GDP and Retail Projections for India
Retail-India-V1
PROJECTIONS (INDIA):80411331721
300427637
Current prices, USD Bn
200620102015
GDP93013101974
CAGR:8.95%8.72%
Retail330442640
% of GDP35%34%32%
CAGR:7.60%7.60%
USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities
2006330149182111
Share:45%55%
2015640320320240
Share:50%50%
Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market
CALCULATIONS:
(USD Bn)2006
330(Total Retail Sales)
111(Top 150 cities retail sales)
Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market
2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices
6%14956%44219%
7%15653%46318%
8%16451%48517%
9%17149%50816%
10%17946%53116%
11%18844%55615%
12%19642%58214%
13%20541%60814%
14%21439%63513%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)
15%22437%66413%Year 2011ShareUSD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)
16%23436%69312%Share of top 528%49219,265
17%24434%72412%Share of next 4520%35155,5543618Rs. Cr. per player
18%25533%75511%Share of top 5049%83374,819
19%26631%78711%
20%27730%82110%Total for 150 cities171788276
Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)
Top 50 PlayersTop 5 PlayersTotalTop 50Top 5
Investment30.019
Urban share of investment96%96%
Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%
Investment in Top 150 cities2214
Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5
Additional Turnover - Top 5075.647.9
Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55
Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85
2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)8349
Curret market share of top 50
in top 150 cities:4%
Retail-India-V1
000
000
000
GDP
Retail
US$ Billion
GDP and Retail Projections for India
Investment-Players
30th July 2006
Retail Investment Scenario
Note:Investment to include Debt + Equity
US$ 145Rs
US$ 1 Million4.5Rs / Crores
Serial #NameBusinessSize of Investment by 2011CumulativeCurrent Turnover
(US$ Million)(Rs / Crores)(US$ Million)(Rs / Crores)
1Reliance6,00027,000--
2Bharti - Tesco2,0009,000--
3ITC2,0009,0004502023
4Wal-Mart2,0009,000--
5Carrefour1,0004,50013,000--
6Kumar Birla1,0004,500--
7Metro1,0004,50015,000100450
8Future Group5002,250549.55555555562473
9Ikea5002,250-100-450
10Oil Majors (Reliance, HP, IOC etc)5002,250Top 54502023
11Ratan Tata + Partners5002,250
12DS Group2501,125
13Godrej - Aadhar + NB2501,125
14M&M2501,125
15Shoppers Stop2501,125
16Spencers / RPG2501,125
17Watsons2501,125
18Essar200900
19Trent200900
20Apollo Pharmacy100450
21Heritage100450
22Landmark - Lifestyle100450
23Nilgiri's100450
24Shoprite100450
25Subhiksha100450
26Trinethra - Fabmall100450
27Vishal Megamart100450
28Arvind Brands50225
29Macdonald's50225
30Madura Garments50225
31Planet Sports (Various formats)50225
32Raymond50225
33VLCC50225
34Yum!50225
35Barista25113
36Benetton25113
37Caf Coffee Day25113
38Costa25113
39Dollar Store25113
40eBay25113
41Fabindia25113
42Globus25113
43Guardian25113
44Lifeken25113
45Marico (Kaya)25113
46Medicine Shoppe25113
47Next25113
48Nike25113
49Reebok - Adidas25113
50Spar25113
51Titan / Tanishq2511320,450
52Viveks25113
53Others3,00013,500
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Total23,500105,750
Rs. Cr.USD Mn
20052005
ITC Turnover169023,756
ITC - FMCG - Others1014.00225
ITC Lifestyle Retail27060
E-Choupal1753390
Total Retailing2023450
Wills LS150stores
Avg Store Size2000
sales/sq.ft.9000
Sales270
Retail-India
PROJECTIONS (INDIA):
Current prices, USD Bn
200620102015
GDP80411331721
CAGR:8.95%8.72%
Retail300427637300427637
% of GDP37%38%37%9.23%8.33%
CAGR:9.23%8.33%
USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities
2006300135165101.25
Share:45%55%
2015637318.5318.5238.9
Share:50%50%
Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market
CALCULATIONS:
(USD Bn)2006
300(Total Retail Sales)
101.3(Top 150 cities retail sales)
Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market
2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices
6%13542%40114%
7%14240%42114%
8%14938%44113%
9%15637%46212%
10%16335%48312%
11%17134%50611%
12%17832%52911%
13%18731%55310%
14%19529%57810%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)
15%20428%6039%Year 2011USD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)
16%21327%6309%Share of top 521%32.1144,390
17%22226%6589%Share of next 4516%25.1113,0132628Rs. Cr. per player
18%23225%6868%Share of top 5037%57.2257,403
19%24224%7168%
20%25223%7468%Total for 150 cities156716614
Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)
Top 50 PlayersTop 5 Players
Investment20.513
Urban share of investment92%92%
Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%
Investment in Top 150 cities14.19.0
Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5
Additional Turnover - Top 5049.531.4
Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.45
Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.69
2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)57.232.1
Curret market share of top 50
in top 150 cities:5%
Retail-India (2)
PROJECTIONS (INDIA):
Current prices, USD Bn
200620102015
GDP80411331721
CAGR:8.95%8.72%
Retail300427637
% of GDP37%38%37%
CAGR:9.23%8.33%
USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities
2006300135165101.25
Share:45%55%
2015637318.5318.5238.9
Share:50%50%
Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market
CALCULATIONS:
(USD Bn)2006
300(Total Retail Sales)
101.3(Top 150 cities retail sales)
Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market
2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices
6%13542%40114%
7%14240%42114%
8%14938%44113%
9%15637%46212%
10%16335%48312%
11%17134%50611%
12%17832%52911%
13%18731%55310%
14%19529%57810%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)
15%20428%6039%Year 2011USD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)
16%21327%6309%Share of top 724%37.1166,818
17%22226%6589%Share of next 4313%20.190,5852107Rs. Cr. per player
18%23225%6868%Share of top 5037%57.2257,403
19%24224%7168%
20%25223%7468%Total for 150 cities156716614
Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)
Top 50 PlayersTop 7 Players
Investment20.515
Urban share of investment92%92%
Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%
Investment in Top 150 cities14.110.4
Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5
Additional Turnover - Top 5049.536.2
Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55
Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85
2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)57.237.1
Curret market share of top 50
in top 150 cities:5%
India-Graphs
PROJECTIONS (INDIA):
Current prices, USD Bn
200620102015
GDP80411331721
Retail300427637
Current prices, USD Bn
RetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities
2006300135165101.25
2015637318.5318.5238.9
Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market
India-Graphs
00
00
00
GDP
Retail
USD Bn
India - GDP & Retail (current prices)
Retail-China
0000
0000
Retail
Urban
Rural
Top 150 cities
USD Bn
Break-up of Retail Sector - India (current prices)
Urban-Rural China
CHINA (GRDI 2005 - A T Kearney)Gross fixedGFI real
(USD Bn) (Figures from 2005 to 2010 are estimates)Nom GDPreal growthnom growthinvestment% yoy
YEARRetail sales NomGrowth in RetailNom GDPGrowth in GDP11998.40%32.90%9.50%
2001454117613258.30%9.5%33.60%12.40%
20024948.8%12718.1%14549.10%8.9%34.80%13.60%
20035368.5%141211.1%164110%11.4%37.70%19.80%
200462817.2%165317.1%193210.10%15.1%39%15.10%
20056706.7%17858.0%22289.90%13.3%43.40%14%Forecasts
200675412.5%19288.0%25859.40%13.8%42%13%
200784812.5%20828.0%29178.50%11.4%42.50%14%
200895512.6%22498.0%(% GDP)
2009107412.5%24298.0%
2010120912.6%26238.0%
CAGR9.20%10.20%
(Source: Worldbank, IMFWorld Economic Outook Database, Access Asia,Nominal Growth in RetailNominal Growth in GDP
China Statistics Bureau and A. T. Kearney analysis)20029%8%
20039%11%
CHINA (PWC Report on Retail - From Beijing to Budapest 2005/2006)200417%17%
(RMB Bn)20057%8%
YEARRetail Sales -NomGrowth - NominalGrowth-Real200613%8%
200034159.7%200712%8%
2001376010.1%200813%8%
2002420311.8%200912%8%
200345849.1%201013%8%
2004539517.7%10.20%1079
(Source: Ministry of Commerce, China)
CHINA - TOP 30 (E&Y presentation)
A highly segmented market
Top 30 retailers in China generated RMB384.6 billion in 2004 (up 33% from 2003)
These retailers:
Comprise 7.1% of total retail sales in China
Operate 13,801 outlets (23.8% increase from 2004)
Include eight foreign retailers that represented more than 22% of sales and 25% of the top 30 total outlets
E&Y PRESENTATION
Source: Xinhua News, 8 Feb 2005
Note: 1USD = RMB 8.28
2004 Sales - In Billions
USD
RMB
2.0
16.2
5. Carrefour (China)
2.7
22.1
4. Suning Appliances
2.8
23.1
3. DalianDashang Group
2.9
23.9
2. Beijing Gome
8.2
67.6
1. Bailian Group
Urban-Rural China
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Nominal Growth in Retail
Nominal Growth in GDP
Sheet1
CHINA - RETAIL SALES BY HABITATION 1995-2001
RMB billion, current prices
1995199619971998199920002001
Urban1072.21290.21475.91610.31736.71928.92033.1
% growth38.020.314.49.17.811.15.4
Rural914.51105.31168.81217.21286.41389.91553.7
% growth16.220.95.74.15.78.011.8
Total1986.72395.52644.72827.53023.13318.83586.8
% growth20.610.46.96.99.88.1
As % of Total Retail Sales
Urban54.053.955.857.057.458.156.7
Rural46.046.144.243.042.641.943.3
Base Year 1999-2000New EstimatesExisting estimates at TechnopakROUGHRevised Estimates
2005-062005-06US$ Bn% share2005-062005-06
FBT63139275%FBT76923163.2%76923163%212FBT65%FBT76923161%FBT76923165%
Clothing579367%Apparel939457.7%939458%26Apparel7%Clothing939458%Apparel939458%
Footwear83561%Footwear104610.9%104611%3Footwear2%Footwear104611%Footwear104611%
repairsFur, Furn16480.2%Furnishings16210.1%4050.03%0.11Furnishings1%FF, CDIT599985%Furnishings30000.3%
Furniture0.0%12160.10%0.34Furniture3%Furniture90001%
CD & IT310514%CDIT583774.8%583775%16CDIT5%CDIT479984%
servicesMedical care & health services27412.53%Medical Care & Health Services13548311.1%13548311%37Medical Care & Health Services3%Medical67741.55%Medical Care & Health Services677426%
Recreation & cultural services18510.2%Recreation22970.2%22970.2%1Recreation0.60%Recreation376123%Recreation36650.3%
Personal care375884%Personal Care593674.9%593675%16Personal Care5%Personal carePersonal Care822157%
Jewellery & Watches260013%Jewellery & Watches518834.3%518834%14Jewellery & Watches5%Jewellery & Watches568715%
Others171472%Others353152.9%353153%10Others4%Others21350617%Others339473%
84038312179801217980100%336101%1252494.5100%1178074.82081792
Total PFCE12662942072079207207920720792072079
%66%59%59%%60%57%
GDP1792292
PFCE%71%
2006-0740.86
Rs. Crore$Bn9%30
GDP374347291613%44
PFCE232733157062%45%55%22%74
Retail1373125.2933659%UrbanRural27%91
Non-Retail95420623441%15118531%104
33%111
2005-06Rs. Crore35%118
GDP3250932
PFCE206463863.51%
@ Provisional Estimates
1999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-05@2005-06** Quick Estimates
GDP1786525192541521001872265304254941828559333250932
PFCE1257541134641814663531545126171345018737292072079
%70.39%69.93%69.82%68.21%67.21%65.61%63.74%
Market size US$ billion 2006% Share 2006Growth rate (2006-11)Market size US$ billion 2011% Share 2011Growth rate (2011-16)Market size US$ billion 2016% Share 2016
Food, Beverages & Tobacco21263%10%34258%8%51251%
Personal Care165%14%325%12%565%
Apparel268%15%529%12%929%
Footwear31%11%51%12%91%
Furniture & Furnishings0.40.1%16%0.90%16%20%
CDIT165%17%356%16%747%
Jewellery & Watches144%14%285%13%515%
Medical Care & Health Services3711%13%6912%16%14514%
Recreation10.2%13%10.2%24%30.3%
Others103%19%234%24%687%
TOTAL336100%11.9%590100%11.4%1012100%
AgricultureIndustryServices
2003-0422.20%26.80%51%
2004-0538.80%19.50%41.70%
AgricultureIndustryServices
2005-0618.327.654.1
2004-0518.827.553.7
2003-0420.926.153
2002-0320.926.552.6
2004-05@
*
RECENT TRENDS
*
*
Recent TrendsExperimentation with formats: Retailing in India is still evolving and the sector is witnessing a series of experiments across the country with new formats being tested out. Ex. Quasi-mall, sub-urban discount stores, Cash and carry etc.
Store design : Biggest challenge for organized retailing to create a customer-pull environment that increases the amount of impulse shopping. Research shows that the chances of senses dictating sales are upto 10-15%. Retail chains like MusicWorld, Baristas, Piramyd and Globus are laying major emphasis & investing heavily in store design.
Emergence of discount stores: They are expected to spearhead the organized retailing revolution. Stores trying to emulate the model of Wal-Mart. Ex. Big Bazaar, Bombay Bazaar, RPGs.
Unorganized retailing is getting organized: To meet the challenges of organized retailing such as large Cineplex's, and malls, which are backed by the corporate house such as 'Ansals' and 'PVR the unorganized sector is getting organized. 25 stores in Delhi under the banner of Provision mart are joining hands to combine monthly buying. Bombay Bazaar and Efoodmart formed which are aggregations of Kiranas.Recent changes:
Unorganized : Vast majority of the twelve million stores are small "father and son" outlets
Fragmented : Mostly small individually owned businesses, average size of outlet equals 50 s.q. ft. Though India has the highest number of retail outlets per capita in the world, the retail space per capita at 2 s.q. ft per person is amongst the lowest. Rural bias: Nearly two thirds of the stores are located in rural areas. Rural retail industry has typically two forms: "Haats" and Melas". Haats are the weekly markets : serve groups of 10-50 villages and sell day-to-day necessities. Melas are larger in size and more sophisticated in terms of the goods sold (like TVs)
Traditionally three factors have plagued the retail industry:
*
Retail Market not limited to metros but widely across IndiaThe classic skimming strategy in the metros is not longer sufficient100 cities strategyOver 250 large size shopping malls are currently under constructionLeading cities 2030 are forecasted to beMumbaiNew DelhiChandigarh
AADHARFuture Group and Godrej Agrovet's joint venture (JV) in rural retailing, 'Aadhar', is all set for a revamp. The alliance operates stores in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana and Punjab and mainly sells wheat and paddy apart from daily need products. The company also provides farmers with solutions to problems regarding their agricultural output, which includes what kind of crop can they plant and when, along with techno-commercial suggestions to help them give a better output.
RURAL RETAILING
Champion Agro LtdRajkot based Champion Agro Ltd is planning to come up with single window shopping facility for farmers. The company already has 35 agri-retailing outlets in the Saurashtra region, and is expected to open around 400 outlets at a taluka level across Gujarat by 2016. It will open 50 new outlets by the end of 2011with an investment of US$ 3.3 million. The overall investment planned is between US$ 66.7 US$ 88.94 million.
ACIL Cotton Industries Vadodara based ACIL Cotton Industries is all set to come up with around 40 outlets of 'ACIL Krishi Store' in Gujarat. Of these, four outlets got operational in April - May 2011. As for 2011, ACIL has decided to focus on the Gujarat market. ACIL stores will sell all types of seeds, fungicides, fertilisers, micronutrients.
OTHER VENTURESMarico is using mobile technology innovatively to arm its field representatives in their procurement process. The IT team at Marico developed a mobile-based application for Nokia 5235 series handsets. The company gave these GPS-enabled phones to 120 of its field representatives, with mapped routes.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) is experimenting with tablet PCs in its attempt to increase its rural reach. It has been able to reach to 500,000 outlets in a years time. According to Nitin Paranjape, managing director, HUL, We put all the villages on an IT map. The name of the village, its total strength, nearest distributors available, whether it has a school, a hospital, a primary health centre, all of this was mapped. We used this information to determine the opportunity the village presented to us.
Global Heavyweights in Indian Retailing
Joint VenturesProduct RangeRetail FormatsBharti-Walmart (with $2.5 Billion investment by Bharti)Food & grocery, electronics & appliances, clothing & footwear, furniture & furnishing, household articles. Hypermarkets, Supermarkets and ConvenienceCarrefour-LandmarkFood and groceries, FMCG, apparel and electronics HypermarketsHome Retail Group plc - Shopper's Stop Ltd and Hypercity Retail India Private Ltd Franchising the Argos concept under the terms of the arrangement, Argos will be providing its brand, catalogue and multi-channel expertise and IT support Multi Channel propositionsTata-WoolworthsSourcing agreement for Consumer durables and Foods under brand name CROMAMulti brand retail chainStaples Inc Pantaloon RetailGlobal Sourcing of Office equipments across various businessesCash and carryRelianceFood & grocery, electronics & appliances, clothing & footwear, furniture & furnishing, household articles.Multi format and Multi CategoryBirlaFood & grocery, electronics & appliances, clothing & footwear, furniture & furnishing, household articles.Convenience and Supermarket
FDI in RetailAt present, the government allows 51% foreign direct investment in a single-brand retail venture while 100% is permitted in wholesale cash-and-carry. Under single-brand retailing a store can stock goods that have the same brand. In the wholesale cash-and-carry route, which most foreign retailers use, there is restriction on sale to individuals. These stores are only permitted to sell to outfits such as restaurants and kirana stores
FDI in RetailForeign direct investment (FDI) inflows between April 2000 and December 2010, in single-brand retail trading, stood at US$ 66.69 million, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).
FDI in Multi Brand RetailingIndia's multi-brand retail sector, is estimated to be worth $28 billion (Rs 125,000 crore) according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study.The government is likely to permit foreign direct investment (FDI) in the multi-brand retail sector from April 2012.
The government prepared a draft in July 2011, which says 49 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail will be allowed in a phased manner which will be effective from the next financial year i.e. April 2012.The Committee of Secretaries (CoS) headed by Cabinet secretary Ajit Kumar Seth met on July 22 to finalise the blueprint of the proposal for political clearance. One of the major outcome of the discussion is raising 49% to 51%.
According to the the economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Kaushik Basu , the government will allow FDI in three phases. In the first phase, foreign multi-brand retail chains will be allowed in the metros Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai. In the second phase other metros like Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune will be included. The draft has laid out strict norms such as earmarking 40 per cent investment for backend infrastructure, such as cold storage, soil testing labs and seed farming, for prospective entrants.
The move has paved the much-required way for international retailer like Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Paris-based Carrefour SA to open their retail stores through strategic partnerships. According to Business Monitor Intern