Resilience Thinking and the Sustainability of Agricultural Systems
Christo Fabricius & Brian Walker
Structure of our presentation
1. Our numbers and global Co2
“We can no longer assume that our collective actions will not trigger tipping points as environmental thresholds are breached, risking irreversible damage to both ecosystems and human communities”. Ban Ki-moon High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability
400 ppm?
219 000 new people every day
2. Uneven distribution of per capita food production
Changes in per capita food production, 1960-2010. From Pretty et al 2011 International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 9
The crisis of African food security
Changes in net per capita agricultural production in Africa (1960 = 100%) From Pretty et al 2011 International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 9
6. Population growth
Sub-Saharan Africa
Global Harvest Initiative 2012
Per capita GDP
Per capita GDP
Foo
d c
on
sum
pti
on
Fo
od
exp
end
itu
re s
har
e
The relation between GDP and a) food consumption and (b) food as a share of total expenditure
a
b
3. Uneven income distribution: a driver of food consumption and affordability
From Cirera & Masset 2010 Phil Trans Royal Soc 365
4. Global demand for meat & fuel
Foley 2013 in litt
* People are moving ‘up the food chain’ * Tug of war between car owners, meat eaters and the world’s poor
Biofuels: the big unknown
Herve et al. 2011 in Economic Effects of Biofuel Production. Intech
Land and water availability
From Rulli et al in press, PNAS
• Ground water and soil depletion in many ‘grabbing’ countries • Cheap land in Africa; failed states, weak land rights
• 66 countries are not self-sufficient - land or water constraints
From Fader et al. 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8
% of popln dependent on
imported food
“available [land] per capita has shrunk from 13.5 ha/person in 1950 to 3.2 ha/person in 2005, and is projected to diminish to 1.5 ha/person in 2050” United Nations Population Fund 2007
But evidence of bans on exports (Earth Policy Institute)
Extent and modification of hydrological flows have increased over the past centuries
Gordon et al. 2008
Identified regime shifts related to agriculture and the hydrological cycle
EVAPORATION & LEAF AREA
Wet savanna -> dry savanna
Cloud forests -> Woodland
Forest -> savanna
Monsoons -> No monsoon
Gordon, et al. 2008
RUN-OFF QUANT, QUAL
Eutrophication
Hypoxic zones
River channel change
INFILTRATION, MOISTURE
Salinisation
Vegetation patterns
Soil structure
Atmosphere
Aquatic
Soil
CO
NSU
MP
TIO
N -
me
at &
fu
el
(ric
h o
ld m
illio
ns)
FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY (poor young billions)
High
High
Low
A safe operating space for the world’s food systems?
“the capacity to absorb disturbance and re-organise so as to retain essentially the same function, structure and feedbacks – to have the same identity”
involves three, intertwined concepts: 1. Thresholds (specified resilience) 2. Adaptability (general resilience) 3. Transformability (capacity to become a different system)
Resilience
resilience, per se, is neither ‘good’ nor ‘bad’ undesirable states of systems can be very resilient (dictatorships, saline landscapes) a system state that once was desirable can become ‘undesirable’ through changes in external conditions (context)
• most losses in resilience are unintended consequences of processes beyond the scale of focus
• in particular, failure to recognise cross-scale and cross-domain feedbacks
The shape and size of the basin can change – thresholds move, and so resilience changes
Alternate stable states of a rangeland in western NSW
Grassy state Shrubby state
critical feedback loop amount of shrubs amount of grass (fuel load) intensity of fire shrub mortality
Thresholds & tipping points
COSTS (Chemicals; fuel; labour; ecosystem services management)
YIEL
D p
er H
ecta
re
Droughts Fuel price
Overgrazing Infrequent fires
Meat demand
Thresholds & tipping points
COSTS (Chemicals; fuel; labour; ecosystem services management)
YIEL
D p
er H
ecta
re
Droughts
Cheap imports
Over-investment Ecosystem mismanagement
Demand for dairy products
Recession
Over-pumping
Transformability
• preparedness to change • getting beyond the state of denial
• options for change
• new ‘trajectories’ - emerge from support for experiments, novelty, continual learning
• capacity to change
• levels of capitals (including ‘social capital’), higher-scale support - governance
Capacity to make use of ‘windows of opportunity’
Folke et al. 2009 In: Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Springer
Just LOOKING at the problem will not solve it
Social-ecological systems framework
Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Plan, Australia http://www.gbcma.vic.gov.au
With participation and empowerment at every level and in every sphere
Innovation: no holy cows anymore
Global Harvest Initiative 2012
Investing in APPROPRIATE research & extension services
Global Harvest Initiative 2012
Returns to investment in research, and extension, respectively is 43% and 49% (Alston 2000; Global Harvest Initiative 2012)
Innovation
• The promise of cooperatives
– Milk production: Indian National Dairy Development Corporation
– Agri-cooperatives
• BUT require
– Governance
– Trust
– Leadership
The Fort Hare Agri-park, South Africa
Over time a range of economic activities and developments will occur, towards expanded and holistic enhancement of local livelihoods, led in the longer term by organized, capacitated, self-representing and flourishing communities
FEEDER PLOT co-owned by community members in collective/ cooperative structure
Independent local producers
AGRO-PROCESSING
FACILITY co-owned with community members-workers
NURSERY - Co-operatively owned supplying planting material to local producers
Public Sector
Markets
- Schools (SNP) - Hospitals & Clinics
- Other public establishments
Private
Sector
Markets
domestic and international
R&D, capacity-building and other development support by university, departments and other institutions
Depot
Depot
Courtesy of Prof Jan Raats
Working with farmers to incorporate local knowledge Is the perception that it is getting drier true?
Enfors and Gordon, 2007
Not for seasonal rainfall..
…but dryspells are increasing
What promotes resilience thinking and practice?
1. foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems
2. maintain diversity and redundancy
3. manage connectivity
4. manage slow variables and feedbacks
5. encourage learning and experimentation
6. broaden participation
7. promote distributed systems for decision making at multiple levels
Biggs et al. 2012. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 37
Social transformation
• From only productivity-focused to using a resilience lens
• Diversification
• Looking across scales and knowledge systems. From policy reform to local use of technology
• Linking ecosystems, society, economic systems and governance
• “Novel social infrastructure” built on trust
• “Collaborative resilience”: private sector, governments, farmers
• Empowerment of women
– Farming is an excellent entry point
Resilience resources:
-www.resalliance.org -information and news - workbooks (free, downloadable)
-Ecology and Society -www.ecologyandsociety.org
-Twitter: @christofab @resilienceSci
http://islandpress.org/ip/books/book/islandpress/R/bo8070201.html
Island Press