Ministry of Finance
INVESTOR PRESENTATION JUNE 2017
REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
1. Republic of Serbia – Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Serbia at a Glance
Key Facts
Resilient economy on the path to full integration with Europe
Form of Government: Parliamentary Republic
Territory: 88,361 sq. km
Capital: Belgrade
Population: 7.1 million(1,2)
GDP per capita: EUR 4.971(1,2)
Nominal GDP: EUR 35.3bn(1,2)
Credit ratings: BB-/BB-/Ba3
Currency: Serbian Dinar (RSD)
Current exchange rate: EUR/RSD = 122.3165 (3)
USD/RSD = 108.6003 (3)
Vilnius
EU Non-EU
SERBIA
Nis
Kragujevac
Novi Sad
Belgrade
1 National Statistics Office as of 2017, Minstry of finance as of 2017, 2 Excluding Kosovo and Metohija, 3 NBS as of 5 June 2017
Recent Milestones and Progress to EU accession
EU membership
application
Responses to
the European
Commission’s
Questionnaire
20082006 2009 20112009 2011 2012
EU candidate status
awarded
EC agrees to start
Serbia’s EU accession
negotiations in January
2014
2013
3
Jan
2014
Serbia started EU
accession
negotiations
April
2014
Formation of new
Government
Nov
2014
Serbia reached
IMF agreement
Dec
2015
Serbia opened
chapters 32 and
35 in the process
of EU accession
July
2016
Serbia opened
chapters 23 and 24
in the process of
EU accession
Aug
2016
Formation of
new
Government
Dec
2016
Serbia opened
chapters 5 and 25
in the process of
EU accession
May-17 May-16 Change May-17 May-16 Change May-17 Change
Serbia BB- BB- no change BB- B+ Ba3
Bulgaria BB+ BB+ no change BBB- BBB- no change Baa2 no change
Croatia BB BB no change BB BB no change Ba2 no change
Hungary BBB- BB+ BBB- BB+ Baa3 no change
Romania BBB- BBB- no change BBB- BBB- no change Baa3 no change
Latvia A- A- no change A- A- no change A3 no change
Lithuania A- A- no change A- A- no change A3 no change
Serbia’s Rating In Comparative Perspective
Credit Rating History
Standard and Poor's – In December 2016, the S&P affirmed Serbia’s credit rating at BB-, while outlook revised to positive from stable. Main factors
which contributed to revision are Serbia`s improved fiscal performance and the prospects for further gains. The improved result comes from better
collections of VAT and excise taxes revenues and higher non-tax revenues. This credit rating agency emphasizes improvement of Serbia`s CAD, and it
is expected that the FDI net inflows will fully finance the CAD. The Serbian economy saw a continued recovery throughout 2016, with real GDP expected
to grow by 2.7%.
Fitch Ratings – In December 2016, the Fitch ratings affirmed the Republic of Serbia credit rating at level 'BB-'. The outlook is stable. The affirmation of
credit rating reflects the view that Serbia will continue to implement fiscal consolidation and structural reform program, as well as to continue EU
accession negotiations and implement further the IMF reform program. The government of the Republic of Serbia continues resolving structural issues in
conditions of economic growth based mainly on investments, public enterprises restructuring and FDI attraction. Fitch Ratings also emphasizes that the
Serbia`s CAD has been fully covered by FDI inflows since 2015, leading to a gradual decline in net external debt.
Moody's – In March 2017, Moody’s rating agency has upgraded Serbia’s credit rating to Ba3. The outlook has been revised to stable. Moody’s decision
to raise Serbia’s credit rating reflects primarily the successful implementation of the fiscal consolidation program and structural reforms, as well as
improved economic growth prospects, recovery in exports, the price stability and further opening of EU accession chapters.
4
1. Republic of Serbia – Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Exports Have Been A Major Driver Of Economic Growth
Source: National Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance
*Projected
Source: Eurostat
Real GDP Growth (Y-o-Y)
Real GDP Growth 2011 – 2016 (Y-o-Y)
• In 2016 the Republic of Serbia marked 2.8% growth, while estimated growth
for 2017 and 2018 is revised up to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
• In Q1 2016, GDP grew by 3.5% primarily on the basis of better construction
and industrial performance, while real economic growth in Q2, Q3 and Q4
2016 was 2.0%, 2.5% and 2.5%, respectively.
• The GDP growth in 2016 was dominantly based on investments in fixed
assets 6.4% (Y-o-Y).
• In the first four months of 2017 exports of goods increased by 11.8% in
value terms over the corresponding 2016 period, while imports of goods
increased by 13.0%, mainly due to energy imports (in EUR terms).
• Exports of machinery and equipment in 2017 had the leading 14.8% share
followed by basic metals with 5.2% share and electrical equipment 5.0%
share in total exports (in EUR terms).
• In the four months of 2017 the export-import ratio was on the level of 77.8%,
while in 2016 was 78.6%.
Source: National Statistics Office, National Bank of Serbia
Exports of Goods – Nominal Growth (Y-o-Y)
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Serbia
Romania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Hungary
*Preliminary Data
3,8%
26,0%
1,4%
7,8%
11,5% 11,80%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
33,4
31,7
34,3
33,3 32,9
34,135,3
1,4%
-1,0%
2,6%
-1,8%
0,7%
2,8%
3,0%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
GDP, EUR bn GDP growth rate
External Position
Exchange Rate USD/RSD (May 2016 – May 2017)Exchange rate EUR/RSD (May 2016 – May 2017)
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of SerbiaSource: National Bank of Serbia
• At the end of April 2017 Serbia had a level of FX reserves at EUR
9.4bn (about 6 months of imports coverage) and net reserves at EUR
7.7bn which provide a good cushion for the Serbian external position
• At the end of December 2016 external debt stood at EUR 26.2bn,
including private sector external debt of EUR 10.5bn
• During 2015 and 2016 EUR/RSD exchange rate showed limited
volatility. In 2015 and 2016 the average exchange rate EUR/RSD was
120.7 and 123.1 respectively
Foreign Exchange Reserves (mln EUR)
7
10,9
11,2
9,9
10,4
9,4
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,5
11,0
11,5
2012 2013 2014 2015 Apr-17
110,0
112,0
114,0
116,0
118,0
120,0
122,0
124,0
126,0
85,0
90,0
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
120,0
125,0
Trade Balance
Balance of Payments (% of GDP)
Source: National Statistics Office, National Bank of SerbiaSource: National Statistics Office
Trade Deficit (% of GDP)
Source: National Statistics Office, National Bank of Serbia;* forecast
External Trade as (% of GDP)
• Current account deficit in 2016 reached historical minimum level of
4.0% of GDP, while estimated CAD in 2017 and 2018 is established at
level of 3.9% and 3.7% of GDP, respectively
• In 2016 CAD was about 13.1% less compared to 2015 mainly due to
significant improvement in trade balance
• The significant growth rates in 2017 were recorded in export of basic
metals (+52%), paper and paper products (+23%), crop and animal
production (+23%) and machinery and equipment (+20%) comparing
to last year
• Strong FDI inflows in export-oriented sectors, will stay more than
sufficient to cover the CAD
8
5,9
4,54,3
4,4
4,0
1,4
18,8%
13,0% 13,0%
13,3%
11,6%
11,6%
5,0%
7,0%
9,0%
11,0%
13,0%
15,0%
17,0%
19,0%
21,0%
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
Trade deficit (EUR bn) Trade deficit (% of GDP)
-6,1%-6,0% -4,7% -4,0%
-3,9%
2,2% 1,4%
-1,8%
3,8%3,7% 5,4% 5,5% 4,5%
-8,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Net FDI Financial Account ex. FDI Current Account
27,6%32,1% 33,6%
36,6%39,4% 40,4%
46,5% 45,1% 46,8%49,8% 51,0% 52,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
Export Import
Serbia’s Exports and Imports in Jan-Apr 2017
Import of Goods
Import of GoodsExport of Goods
Source: National Statistics OfficeSource: National Statistics Office
Export of Goods
Source: National Statistics Office Source: National Statistics Office
9
68%
7%
15%
10%EU
CIS
MEDA
Other
62%11%
7%
20%
EU
CIS
MEDA
Other
16%
13%
8%
5%
6%4%
49%
Italy
Germany
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Romania
Russian Federation
Montenegro
Others
10%
12%
9%
8%
5%4%
52%
Italy
Germany
Russian Federation
China
Hungary
Poland
Others
…And By Types Of Products
Source: National Statistics Office
Export Jan-Apr 2017 (FOB) Import Jan-Apr 2017 (CIF)
Source: National Statistics Office
External Trade as % GDP
• Serbia’s exports are reasonably diversified, covering the full range of
products from intermediate inputs, to consumer and capital goods
• This confirms that Serbia is already being integrated into the
European trade system and is able to export goods to multinational
companies operating in the global supply chain
• Intermediate and capital goods have been the fastest growing export
product categories in period 2011-2016, one of the positive results of
the direct foreign investment that Serbia has attracted in recent years
due to the Government of Serbia subsidy program
• The automobile industry as the main Serbian’a export sector
continues to grow. Export of steel products are growing by 92.8% yoy
Source: National Statistics Office
10
2%
37%
25%
5%
22%
9%
Energy
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Durable consumer goods
Non durable consumer goods
Unclassified by MIG destination
11%
34%
20%
2%
14%
19%Energy
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Durable consumer goods
Non durable consumer goods
Unclassified by MIG destination
27,6%32,1% 33,6%
36,6%39,4% 40,4%
46,5% 45,1% 46,8%49,8% 51,0% 52,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
Export Import
Foreign Direct Investments
Net FDI Diversification by Geography (2016)
Net FDI Diversification by Sector (2016)Net Foreign Direct Investment (EUR mln)
• NFDI’s in 2016 reached the level of EUR 1.9bn. The FDI/CAD
coverage for 2016 stood at 135.8%. The biggest FDIs were in
manufacturing sector (rubber production, motor vehicles, food
production), financial sector, construction, retail trade sector,
telecommunication and IT sector
• Estimated level of NFDI’s for 2017 stands at EUR 1.6bn. In the first
three months of 2017, net FDI inflow stood at EUR 370 mln
• FDI projection for the coming years also envisages full coverage of
CAD
• Air Serbia improved performance of the Belgrade Airport Nikola
Tesla which became very attractive to potential investors
• Serbia improved the position on the World Bank’s Doing Business
List 2017 and ranked at the 47th position in comparison to previous
54th in 2016 (one of the ten most-improved countries)
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Statistics Office; National Bank of SerbiaSource: National Statistics Office, National Bank of Serbia
*2012 data affected by Telekom Srbija’s buyback of its Treasury shares from OTE (EUR 380m)
11
13,6%12,7%
11,5%10,7%
8,2%
6,0% 5,6%4,2% 4,0% 4,0%
0,0%2,0%4,0%6,0%8,0%
10,0%12,0%14,0%16,0%
34,2%
9,0%12,5%
9,0%
20,3%
3,5%4,6%
6,8%
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
Construction
Real estate activities
Financial intermediation
Transport and storage
Information andcommunication
Other
3.320
753
1.298 1.236
1.804 1.861
370
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mar-17
Inflation in the Target Band in the first half of 2017
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
• Inflation has been moving below the target tolerance band since March
2014 mainly due to movements in food and oil prices
• According to the NBS estimate, y-o-y inflation is expected to rise
moderately and to enter the target tolerance band in the first half of
2017
• During 2015, the NBS gradually reduced its key policy rate (KPR) by
350 bps and at the end of December 2015 KPR was at the level of
4.50%, meanwhile in 2016 NBS reduced KPR for additional 50 bps to
the level of 4.00% in July 2016
• NBS reduced inflation target to the level of 3.00%±1.50% (starting from
January 2017)
Y-o-Y Inflation eop Key Policy Rate and Money Supply
Contribution of CPI Components to Y-o-Y Inflation (%)
12
7,0%
12,2%
2,2% 1,7% 1,5% 1,6%
4,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
Services Energy
Industrial goods excluding food and energy Processed food
Unprocessed Food
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0% Key Policy Rate (left axis) M2 (YoY) (right axis)
1. Republic of Serbia - Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Banking Sector Overview
Source: National Bank of Serbia
*latest available comparable data
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Asset Structure
Liabilities and Capital Structure
Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking Sector
14
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
*latest available comparable data
55%
16%
13%
8%2%
6%
Loans and receivablesfrom clients
Financial assets availablefor sale
Currency and depositswith the central bank
Loans and receivablesfrom banks and otherfinancial organisationsFixed assets
9%
67%
1%
13%
6%
3%
1%
Deposits to banks, OFO and thecentral bank
Deposits to other customers
Subordinated liabilities
Share capital and other capital
Reserves and unrealised losses
Profit
Other
Assets 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
I. Foreign Assets 35.7% 36.2% 35.2% 34.1% 33.1% 31.5%
Of which NBS 31.4% 32.8% 28.9% 29.3% 27.8% 26.3%
II. Domestic credit 56.6% 56.% 56.9% 58.1% 58.5% 60.0%
of which Government 7.3% 8.6% 10.9% 12.4% 14.0% 14.4%
of which Companies 28.1% 25.7% 23.2% 22.9% 22.1% 22.2%
of which Households 16.4% 17.1% 17.3% 17.5% 18.4% 19.5%
Others 4.8% 4.6% 5.5% 5.3% 4.0% 3.9%
III. Other Assets 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 8.4% 8.5%
Total Assets (EUR bn) 35.0 34.4 34.6 35.7 37.2 36.2
Liabilities 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
I. Foreign Liabilities 18.8% 14.7% 10.5% 9.1% 7.8% 7.5%
II. Government depostis 4.9% 7.3% 8.0% 7.3% 6.6% 6.0%
III. Currency in circulation 2.8% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4%
IV. RSD deposits 9.3% 10.8% 11.6% 13.0% 14.2% 13.6%
V. FX deposits 29.2% 29.7% 29.9% 29.9% 30.4% 31.7%
VI. Other Liabilities 35.0% 34.4% 37.0% 37.5% 37.5% 37.8%
Total Liabilities (EUR bn) 35.0 34.4 34.6 35.7 37.2 36.2
A Strong Capital Cushion Offsets Relatively High NPLs
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Credit Growth Y-o-Y
Capital Adequacy Ratio and NPL’s (%)
Banking Sector Ownership by Assets (Q3, 2016)
15
• At the end of December 2016 CAR stands at high level of 21.8%,
mainly due to recapitalization, higher reserves from capital and lower
capital requirements for credit risk
• NPLs are fully covered by balance sheet loan loss reserves. IFRS
provision (68.5% in December 2016) cover more than half of NPLs.
Among others, NBS regulatory measures allow the sale of NPLs to
non financial entities and better tax treatment on restructured debt
• The share of NPLs has a downward trend - at March 2017 it stood at
16.8%, 4.1 pp lower compared to March 2016
• Liquidity ratio of the banking system is higher than the regulatory limit
(2.2 in March 2017) and liquid assets represent 36.0% of total assets
at the end of March 2017
• The loan to deposit ratio for the banking sector remains on a
conservative low level 0.91 in March 2017
15,1%
26,6%
12,5%10,1%
11,7%
23,9% Austria
Italy
Greece
France
Other foreign banks
Domesticaly owned banks
18,6%
21,4% 21,5% 21,6%
17,0% 16,8%
19,9%
20,9%
20,0%
20,9%
21,8%22,3%
15,0%
16,0%
17,0%
18,0%
19,0%
20,0%
21,0%
22,0%
23,0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mar-17
NPL's CAR
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%Loans to households
Loans to enterprises
Total loans
1. Republic of Serbia - Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Fiscal Policy Measures – New IMF Agreement
Fiscal consolidation measures and structural changes for 2017:
– Reform of tax administration and public revenue system
– Reform of public enterprises
– Public administration reform and rightsizing
– Improvement of capital expenditure planning and realization
– Business environment improvement
• Central Government budget surplus 0.1% GDP and General
Government budget deficit 1.3% GDP in 2016
• Six successful IMF program reviews during 2015 and 2016
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
* projected
Source: Ministry of Finance
Consolidated Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Budget (RSD bn)Tax Revenues (as % of GDP)
17
-1,5%-1,9%
-2,6%
-4,4%-4,6% -4,8%
-6,8%
-5,5%
-6,6%
-3,7%
-1,3%
1,5%
-8,0%
-7,0%
-6,0%
-5,0%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr-17
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other tax revenues Duties Profit tax Personal income tax Excises VAT
788 812881
9481042
1093
980 986
11281063 1037
1162
-192 -174-247
-115
5
-69
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Revenues Expenses Balance
The IMF completed the first review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on 26 June 2015
– The economy has stabilized, inflationary pressures remained subdued, the external position has strenghtened and credit growth remained slow
The IMF completed the second review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on 23 October 2015
– The economic growth has remained positive despite the significant fiscal tightening, the current account deficit has narrowed to a sustainable level,
confidence has improved and gradual easing of monetary policy by the NBS has been appropriate in view of still low inflation
The IMF completed the third review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on 18 December 2015
– The economy has continued to recover on the back of efforts to strengthen public finances, address structural weaknesses and improve the business
climate
The IMF completed the fourth and fifth reviews of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on 31 August 2016
– Serbia’s economic recovery has exceeded expectations, supported by efforts to strengthen public finances, advance structural reforms and boost
investment confidence, while authorities indicated their intention to continue treating the arrangement as precautionary
The IMF completed the sixth review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on 16 December 2016
– Serbia’s economy continues to strengthen, supported by the efforts to improve public finances and address structural weaknesses. Employment is
rising, inflation remains firmly under control, and public debt has started to decline. Significant progress has been made on fiscal consolidation, on
account of strong revenue and on-going expenditure control
Serbia Reiterates the Importance of Cooperation with the IMF
18
Completed first review of
Serbia’s Stand-By Arrangement
Completed second review of
Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
20082006 2009 2011June 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015
Completed third review of
Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Completed fourth and fifth
reviews of Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Aug 2016 Dec 2016Completed sixth review
of Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Active Debt Management Has Produced Stable Funding Base
Total foreign debt
62%
Total domestic debt
38%
Other
14%
IMF, 2%
IDA, 2%
Paris Club, 5%
IBRD, 8%
Other
3%
T-bills and
T-bonds
33%
Frozen
FX bonds
2%
Guaranteed external debt
7%
Eurobond, 20%
EIB, 4%
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
(RSD bn)
Source: Ministry of Finance
*In accordance with the Fiscal Strategy for 2017 with projections for 2018 and 2019
Public Debt
Public Debt Service (RSD bn)
Description of the Debt Structure(As of 31 May 2017)
Development of the Currency Structure
19
125 128,0 134,0 132,5
501537,2
686,4 608,0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2015 2016* 2017* 2018*
Principal Interest
1547,52014,8
2309,02753,2
3018,63064,6
2951,1
45,4%
56,2%59,6%
70,4%
76,0%72,9% 67,1%
25,0%
35,0%
45,0%
55,0%
65,0%
75,0%
85,0%
0,0
500,0
1000,0
1500,0
2000,0
2500,0
3000,0
3500,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 May-17
Public debt (in RSD bn)
Public debt (% of GDP)
18,3% 20,3% 21,4% 22,2% 20,9% 21,7%
51,0% 45,9% 41,7% 39,8% 39,7% 40,1%
23,1% 27,7% 31,5% 32,9% 33,9% 32,8%
5,7% 4,6% 4,2% 3,9% 3,7% 3,5%
1,9% 1,5% 1,2% 1,2% 2,0% 1,9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 May-17
Other SDR USD EUR RSD
Debt Mix and Currency Structure
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2017 Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2017
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2017
*Internal Debt – All currencies Debt on the Domestic market
** External Debt – All currencies Debt on the International market
0,5% 1,3%
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2017
*Internal vs **External Debt
Interest Rate Mix
Currency Breakdown
Public Debt Residual Maturity Structure
20
61,8%
38,2%Total foreign debt
Total domestic debt
79,7%
20,3%
Fixed interest rate
Variable interest rate
21,7%
40,2%
32,8%
3,5%
RSD
EUR
USD
CHF
SDR
Others
8,9%
10,7%
13,6%
24,3%5,7%
10,8%
11,1%
5,9%
9,0%
Up to 6 months
Between 6 months and 1 year
Between 1 and 2 years
Between 2 and 5 years
Between 5 and 7 years
Between 7 and 10 years
Between 10 and 15 years
Between 15 and 20 years
Over 20 years
Government Financing Needs 2017
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
• The improvement in fiscal position of the Government decreased the
level of gross financing needs in 2016
• Total financing needs in 2017 are EUR 6.8bn of which EUR 1.6bn for
buy-back operations while in 2016 were EUR 4.0bn, due to significantly
lower budget deficit than initially planned
• Financing plan for 2017:
√ EUR 4.7bn government securities domestic market, of which:
* EUR 3.1bn denominated in dinars
* EUR 1.6bn denominated in euros
√ EUR 1.0bn Eurobond
√ EUR 0.4bn IBRD
√ EUR 0.4bn Abu Dhabi Emirate concessional loan
√ EUR 0.3bn other sources
• February and July 2016, 3Y RSD and 7Y RSD 110bn benchmark
bonds issued, as well as 3Y RSD 110bn benchmark in April 2017
• Improved secondary market trading of government dinar securities due
to benchmark size issues in February and July 2016, 3Y RSD and 7Y
RSD 110bn
• New dinar benchmark RSD bond issues planned in 2017
• In the first four months of 2017 Government recorded budget surplus
10.7bn RSD and General Government budget surplus 21.5bn RSD
Maturity Distribution of Local Currency Government Securities (As of 31 May 2017)
Maturity Distribution of EUR Denominated Government Securities (As of 31 May 2017)
21
5%
18%
40%
7%
28%
2%
6M
53W
2Y
3Y
5Y
7Y
10Y
9%
20%
28%
22%
14%
7%
53W
2Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
15Y
Government Securities – Domestic Market
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
22
RSD securities-domestic market (Jan-May 2017)
EUR securities-domestic market (Jan-May 2017) ATM of Government securities
RSD weighted average accepted rate on primary auctions
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
9,52% 9,38%10,10%
10,71%11,02%
12,15%12,49%
7,35% 7,54%8,49%
9,21%10,16%
10,93%11,99%
12,99%
4,96%4,42%
5,94%
7,06%
8,62%6,50%
11,99%
2,78% 3,13%3,93%
4,78%5,38% 5,68% 5,83%
2,64%3,48%
4,74%5,00% 5,32%
5,64%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
14,00%
3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y
RS
D B
illio
ns
Redemptions
New Issuance
-
50
100
150
200
250
53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
EU
R M
illio
ns
Redemptions
New Issuance
2,4
3,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
In y
ears
ATM RSD Securities
ATM EUR Securities