Report of the Facts & Figures Committee
Tore ForsmoChairman
Committee Members Paul BUYL (Belgium) Cédric CHARPENTIER (France) Jim CRAIG (USA) Andrea CUPIDO (Italy) Tore FORSMO (Norway) (Chairman) Pamela FROOD (UK/IUA) Patrizia KERN (Switzerland) Jens SCHILDKNECHT (Germany) Astrid SELTMANN (Norway) (Secretary) Simon STONEHOUSE (UK/Lloyd’s)
Global Shipping MarketGlobal Shipping Market Trends TrendsFacts & Figures CommitteeFacts & Figures Committee
Tore ForsmoManaging Director
The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway
Thanks also to F&F Committee Members Cédric Charpentier and Simon Stonehouse
World Merchant Fleet by type of ship of 300gt and over
As at January 1st 2007 – number of ships in share of the World Reported Fleet, growth rate 2002-2007 (%) and average age
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Special Ships 3.1%(+17.7%)
Ore/Bulk/Oil 0.2% (-46.2%)
Ro-Ro cargo 3.0% (+12.5%)
Reefer ships 2.6% (-12.2%)
Chemical tankers 3.2% (+7.3%)
Liquefied gas 2.9% (+11.8%)
Bulk carriers 15.8% (+14.8%)
Passengers 9.6% (+7.9%)
Container ships 9.1% (+42.4%)
Oil Tankers 19.1% (+12.1%)
General cargo 31.4% (-6.3%)
23.3
17.1
15.8
22.8 10.8
16.3 18.7
19.2
19
.7
22.1
WORLD REPORTED FLEET Total number : 42,872 shipsincreased by + 9.6 % on the
period Average age : 19.1 years
World Merchant Reported Fleet by type of ships 300gt and over
As at January 1st, 2007 – Deadweight and growth rate 2001-2007
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
374,454
10,008 26,857 6,062
74,133
6,585 6,952 12,652
1,009,523
128,174
6,078
357,568
-59.6%
29.6%29.8%
-4.9%-9.8%
-0.9%
13.7%
86.5%
35.9%
45.8%
15.2%
24.7%
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Oil Tankers Chemical tankers Liquefied gas Bulk carriers Ore/Bulk/Oil Container ships Passengers General cargo Reefer ships Ro-Ro cargo Special Ships Total-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1,000dwt in 2007 Growth rate 2001/ 2007
World Merchant Fleet of ships of 300gt and over
Evolution of the growth rates (GT, DWT, and Number of ships) between 1995 and 2007
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
39,008 ships (+ 7.6%)
42,872 ships (+ 18.3%)
685,738 mGT
(+ 56.4%)
520,913 mGT
(+ 18.8%)778,758 mDWT
(+ 14.2%)
1,009,524 mDWT
(+ 48.1%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
World Merchant Fleet by main types of ship of 300gt and overEvolution of the number of ships in shares (%) of the world fleet 97–07, Growth rate in 2006 as at 1st January 2007
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
- 0.1% (- 0.2 %)
+ 0.8% (- 1.2 %)
+ 0.1% (+ 1.9 %)
+ 5.9% (+ 6.0 %)
- 2.3% (- 1.8 %)
- 0.3% (- 0.9 %)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -
Oil Tankers Liquefied gas Bulk carriers Container ships Passengers General cargo
Share of World Fleet Growth rate in 2006 (in 2005)
World Merchant Reported Fleet by National and Foreign Flag
As at January 1st, 2007 – thousand DWT and number of ships
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
13,039 12,70712,46212,64612,91612,905
17,058 15,668
14,48013,840
13,30513,342
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1,000dwt
Foreign Flag (dwt)
National Flag (dwt)
Ships > 1,000 GT
Total Units in the :
Reported Fleet
Not Reported Fleet
Total World Fleet
26,247
3,686
26,221
4,174
26,486
4,117
26,942
3,909
28,375
3,567
30,097
3,228
29,933 30,395 30,603 30,851 31,942 33,325
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Fleet – Top 10 Countries
DWT-rank 2007 (2006) Country of Management
Total fleet - 1,000DWT
2007
% share on the Total
World Fleet Reported in
2007
Growth rate 2006/2007
Growth rate 1997/2007
1 (1) GREECE 170,260 17.8% 6.8% 48.1%2 (2) JAPAN 146,956 15.4% 12.2% 68.6%3 (3) GERMANY 85,330 8.9% 21.4% 396.8%4 (4) CHINA, PR of 69,070 7.2% 7.6% 96.3%5 (7) NORWAY 47,970 5.0% 10.8% 1.2%6 (5) USA 45,397 4.8% -3.2% -5.1%7 (6) HONG-KONG 45,155 4.7% 4.1% 38.0%8 (8) KOREA, Rep of 31,712 3.3% 7.8% 39.3%9 (11) UK 24,973 2.6% 17.1% 24.0%10 (10) SINGAPORE 24,936 2.6% 12.0% 73.7%
691,759 72.4% 9.0% 57.3%Others countries 263,659 27.6% 4.9% 12.9%
955,418 7.9% 41.9%
1,001,118
WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES OF MANAGEMENT As at January 1st, 2007 – Rank in 2007 (in 2006) and thousand of DWT (Ships of 1,000gt and over )
3,228 ships for 45.7 million dwt not reported
Total Top Ten Countries of Management
Total World Merchant Fleet by Country of Management
Total World Merchant Fleet (including fleets for which the Country of Management is unknown)
World Merchant Fleet – Top 10 Countries by National (NF) and Foreign Flags (FF)As at January 1st, 2007
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
GREECEJAPAN
GERMANY
CHINA, PR of
NORWAY USA
HONG-KONG
KOREA, Rep of UK
SINGAPORE
1,000 DWT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Years
1,000 DWT NF 1,000 DWT FF Average Age NF Average Age FF
Top Ten Countries Fleet Average Age : 15.5 years
Ships > 1,000 GT
Average Age FF : 13.2 years
Average Age NF : 17.2 years
Orderbook Evolution by type of ship
in million DWT
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
112.3 115.6
176.7
220.0
241.8
Tankers 146.3
Bulk Carriers 97.7
LNG/LPG 17.2
Container 58.1
Others 5.5
General cargo 9.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Tankers >=1,000dwt Bulk Carriers >=10,000dwt LNG/LPG Carriers Container Vessels >=5,000dwt Others (of which Passenger Vessels >=1,000grt) General cargo (>= 300gt)
334.0
World Shipbuilding – Shares of Deliveries
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
% C
GT
Del
iver
ies
Japan
Europe
Korea
China
Others
Vessels on order by Country of Build@ August 2007 (Numbers)
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
China30%
Europe/Scandinavia15%
Far East9%
FSU1%
Japan17%
Other3%
South Korea23%
USA / Americas2%
Total No 8,414 (2006- 5,653)
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Vessels on order by Country of Build@ August 2007 (DWT)
China31 %
FSU0 %
Japan23 %
Other1 % Far East
4 %
USA/Americas1%
Europe/Scandinavia
4 %
South Korea36 %
Total 436.8 million DWT (2006 – 275.6m)
Top Contracting Countries by Number of Vessels on Order (Aug 07)
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Top Contracting Countries by DWT of Vessels on Order (Aug 07)
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
GDP 2006 and GDP Growth Rate 02-06
+ 0.6%+ 0.9%
+ 1.5%+ 1.8%
+ 2.5%+ 2.7%+ 2.9%+ 3.3%
+ 6.1%
+ 6.8%
+ 9.5%
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
China (1) India (1) RussianFederation (1)
Spain USA Canada UK Japan France Germany Italy-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %GDP 2006 (billion USD)
Actual % GDP Growth (2002 - 2006)
(1) % GDP growth for 2001-2005
World Seaborne Trade Volume
Development 1996-2006 (in million tonnes) - Growth rate in 2006
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
estimates
+ 2 %
+ 7 %
+ 6 %
+ 5 %
900
1,400
1,900
2,400
2,900
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (*)
Major trades
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Total World Trade
Crude oil and oil products
The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)
Other Cargoes
Total World Trade
(*)
World Trade Values Development 1996-2006 (in million USD) – Growth rate in 2006
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
+ 27.1 %
+ 14.5 %
+ 15.7 %
+ 16.9 %
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (*)
Oil & Dry Bulk
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Total World Trade & Other cargoes
Crude oil and oil products
The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)
Other Cargoes
Total World Trade
(*)
World Market Price Indices for Selected Commodities Annual Average (1993-2006) – Average in 2007 as at end of May (*)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
301.6
202.1 213.1
152.2
278.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(*)
Iron ore, scrap metals Coal
Crude oil Agricultural raw material
Non ferrous metal
Index 2000 = 100
FREIGHT MARKET (indices) – YEARS 1995 to 2007 (January to May 2007)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures, Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels and Maritime Research Inc., New Jersey for Freight Market indices.
758.6
504.4
529.8
448.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)General Freight IndexGrain Freight Index Miscellaneous Freight Index
Index 1972 = 100