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Data for building regression:
Factors GDP Agriculture and Allied sect
Year At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore
1970-71 209842.98
1971-72 205903.46
1972-73 195570.241973-74 209655.02
1974-75 206461.23
1975-76 233073.63
1976-77 219606.21
1977-78 241646.45
1978-79 247210.37
1979-80 215630.01
1980-81 243420.90
1981-82 254622.33
1982-83 253907.261983-84 279605.15
1984-85 284037.15
1985-86 284929.80
1986-87 283763.06
1987-88 279257.48
1988-89 322932.36
1989-90 326772.53
1990-91 339892.76
1991-92 333256.39
1992-93 355421.301993-94 367230.91
1994-95 384549.44
1995-96 381875.38
1996-97 419758.56
Data for forecasting ! regression:
1997-98 409039.06
1998-99 434892.19
1999-00 446515.30
2000-01 445402.59
2001-02 473248.49
2002-03 438966.26
2003-04 482676.52
2004-05 482910.17
2005-06 511113.98
2006-07 531315.45
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AGR%C&'"&R ! A''%D #C")R %nstitutional Rural Credit
GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%)*(+000 ,ectares 'ong "er$ (in billlion Rs
33880 5.22
33675 6.38
34465 7.9235318 9.85
36689 11.50
38538 17.72
38847 21.60
40562 25.20
42489 29.08
43053 35.68
42932 42.89
43934 48.43
44453 59.9546249 71.85
46262 86.70
46128 103.77
47723 116.45
46826 137.42
50808 152.39
51313 181.60
52134 193.13
53432 207.23
54744 225.7656135 240.37
58035 263.78
58062 282.27
61409 309.11
62271 329.50
65341 338.86
66247 497.24
64183 373.02
66109 452.34
61722 542.24
65176 704.54
66298 862.59
67968 1079.88
70493 1324.77
"ractors #ales "i$e- #eries
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Rainfall "ractors
Annual ($$ #ales
92.6 1./0
127.8 1/.
120.9 1151.2 19.
124.4 2/.
148.0 2./
95.6 .
167.4 9//.
117.8 12
142.4 02.
92.4 /0.
86.6 01
111.5 /.1119.7 .2
92.0 02/
161.4 .22
152.7 ..9
160.7 9010
87.7 10/20
89.4 11.00
165.3 1.12
106.8 1/00
112.0 1/..0134.9 190.2
130.9 1/0.
123.9 191200
130.9 22/12
167.0 22./
157.0 2/
141.0 2/0./2
66.4 2.19
125.8 2100
77.6 1/.02
120.5 191/..
119.2 2.1
136.4 290/
100.8 2.1
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C,ec3 for Collinearit4:
GDP Agriculture and Allied sect
GDP Agriculture and Allied sector 1
GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%)*%nstitutional Rural Credit
Annual Rainfall
Fro$ t,e abo5e collinearit4 table6 7e get to 3no7 t,at factors- GDP6correlated to eac, ot,er8 ",erefore6 7e can run regression 7it,
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GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%) %nstitutional Rural Credi Annual Rainfall
0.9784348241 0.9825617815 0.0197360004
1 0.9648101376 0.01117886431 0.0503492988
1
ross area under irrigaton ! %nstitutional rural credit are ,ig,l4nl4 one factor a$ong t,ese t,ree and t,e annual rainfall8
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#&ARY )&"P&"
Regression Statistics Regression uMultiple R 0.9761805924
R Square 0.9529285489
Adjusted R Square 0.949005928Standard Errr 12896.01952731
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df SS MS
Re&ressin 2 80802604135.1 40401302068
Residual 24 3991375671.57 166307319.65
'tal 26 84793979806.7
Coecients Standard Error t Stat
(nter)ept 39960.49672733 12548.3060018 3.184533173%nstitutional Rural Credi572.0504063365 25.9534372783 22.041412095
Annual Rainfall -127.903507655 97.7961991988 -1.307857654
RES(*+A, !+'+'
Observation Predicted Sales Residuals
1 31102.73503954 -15342.7350395
2 27264.11004143 -10689.11004143 29027.60187001 -10673.60187
4 26256.18287229 -6381.18287229
5 30627.8800479 -4049.8800479
6 31167.51079465 1597.48920535
7 40089.21017237 -6616.21017237
8 32965.11978554 6701.88021446
9 41528.68934182 9899.31065818
10 42157.79573533 15869.2042647
11 52677.45454777 15409.5454522
12 56588.45414327 26712.5458567
13 59993.67748366 3720.3225163414 65752.26855629 8485.73144371
15 77790.14425243 2472.85574757
16 78678.54125733 -446.54125733
17 87044.90092628 -9155.90092628
18 98017.56988591 -7507.56988591
19 115918.1205276 -9668.12052759
20 132410.2769337 -15110.2769337
21 129298.1418877 7824.8581123
'on
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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22 144846.4078149 1953.59218513
23 154781.4036045 -8011.40360448
24 160210.0697158 -21138.0697158
25 174113.3837587 -10038.3837587
26 185585.9203255 5614.07967454
27 200044.4286779 28567.5713221
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sing factors- %nstitutional Rural Credit and Annual Rainfall8
F Signicance F
242.93159287 1.183290E-016
P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%! "##er 9$%!
0.003987124 14062.066019 65858.927435 14062.066019 65858.9274351.95188E-017 518.48514447 625.6156682 518.48514447 625.6156682
0.2033111226 -329.74494251 73.937927204 -329.74494251 73.937927204
"er$ (in billlion Rs Residual Plot
nnual ($$ Residual Plot
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8/19/2019 Regression Final
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#&ARY )&"P&"
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9741572254
R Square 0.9489822999
Adjusted R Square 0.9447308249Standard Errr 13425.71201356
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df
Re&ressin 2
Residual 24
'tal 26
Coecients
(nter)ept -228432.660146GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%)*(+000 ,ectare 6.9613727891
Rainall Annual / -43.3900890989
RES(*+A, !+'+'
Observation Predicted Sales
1 3400.727698316
2 446.31514026943 6245.191258445
4 10868.52254786
5 21575.41902957
6 33422.99121389
7 37847.6960745
8 46671.04201052
9 62237.75579443
10 65096.57385565
11 66423.75220311
12 73650.71025457
13 76183.2495135514 88330.07631218
15 89622.47962647
16 85678.38348927
17 97159.26686305
18 90567.79475844
19 121455.4577089
20 124897.1878159
21 127319.1671132
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22 138893.3492057
23 147801.0418417
24 156490.678351
25 169890.8470067
26 170382.5346957
27 193379.7886173
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Regression using factors- Gross Area under irrigati
SS MS F Signicance F
80467985973 40233992986 223.21248453 3.109213E-016
4325993833.71 180249743.07
84793979806.7
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9!
19738.0270946 -11.573226597 2.63511E-011 -269169.94588 -187695.374420.3294870183 21.127912186 5.13857E-017 6.281345006 7.6414005723
101.690312291 -0.42668852240.6734093896 -253.26857837 166.48840017
Residuals
12359.2723017
16128.684859712108.8087416
9006.47745214
5002.58097043
-657.99121389
-4374.6960745
-7004.04201052
-10809.7557944
-7069.57385565
1663.24779689
9650.28974543
-12469.2495136-14092.0763122
-9359.47962647
-7446.38348927
-19270.2668631
-57.7947584358
-15205.4577089
-7597.1878159
9803.83288685
GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%)*(+000 ,ectares Resi
Annual ($$ Residual Pl
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7906.65079431
-1031.04184168
-17418.678351
-5815.84700666
20817.4653043
35232.2113827
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on and Annual Rainfall8
Lower 9$%! "##er 9$%!
-269169.94588 -187695.374426.281345006 7.6414005723
-253.26857837 166.48840017
ual Plot
t
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#&ARY )&"P&"
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9741635832
R Square 0.9489946869
Adjusted R Square 0.9447442441Standard Errr 13424.08204459
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df SS
Re&ressin 2 80469036316.9
Residual 24 4324943489.76
'tal 26 84793979806.7
Coecients Standard Error
(nter)ept -149598.605552 17080.4388752GDP- Agricultural ! Allied acti5iti 0.8643826045 0.0409066459
Rainall Annual / -61.7810175675 101.691419857
RES(*+A, !+'+'
Observation Predicted Sales Residuals
1 26065.09456053 -10305.0945605
2 20485.14818062 -3910.148180623 11979.57865059 6374.42134941
4 22282.25745432 -2407.25745432
5 21177.32851039 5400.67148961
6 42722.59680192 -9957.59680192
7 34318.9180686 -845.918068602
8 48934.23826911 -9267.23826911
9 56807.93743036 -5379.93743036
10 27990.61052359 30036.3894764
11 55101.61641988 12985.3835801
12 65142.27134222 18158.7286578
13 62985.8312696 728.16873039914 84692.03443062 -10454.0344306
15 90234.31222529 -9971.31222529
16 86718.30319528 -8486.30319528
17 86247.28549306 -8358.28549306
18 81858.49220113 8651.50779887
19 124120.317606 -17870.317606
20 127334.6621579 -10034.6621579
21 133986.381632 3136.61836805
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22 131864.2116978 14935.7883022
23 150701.9090472 -3931.90904724
24 159495.1432923 -20423.1432923
25 174712.109169 -10637.109169
26 172833.1578698 18366.8421302
27 205146.2525009 23465.7474991
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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Regression using factors- GDP ! Annual Rainfall8
MS F Signicance F
40234518158 223.26960759 3.100166E-016
180205978.74
t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%!
-8.7584755079 6.12280E-009 -184850.89878 -114346.31233 -184850.8987821.130615482 5.12359E-017 0.7799554369 0.9488097721 0.7799554369
-0.60753422120.5492022802 -271.66179274 148.09975761 -271.66179274
At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore Residual
Annual ($$ Residual Plot
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"##er 9$%!
-114346.312330.9488097721
148.09975761
Plot
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#&ARY )&"P&"
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9744607451
R Square 0.9495737438
Adjusted R Square 0.9475566935Standard Errr 13077.98601013
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df SS MS
Re&ressin 1 80518136854.6 80518136855
Residual 25 4275842952.03 171033718.08
'tal 26 84793979806.7
Coecients Standard Error t Stat
%nterce=t 24288.80750722 3777.4018228 6.430030123%nstitutional Rural Credi570.3413798686 26.286265612721.697314798
RES(*+A, !+'+'
Observation Predicted Sales Residuals
1 27265.98951014 -11505.9895101
2 27927.58551079 -11352.5855108
3 28805.91123578 -10451.91123584 29906.67009893 -10031.6700989
5 30847.73337571 -4269.73337571
6 34395.2567585 -1630.2567585
7 36608.18131239 -3135.18131239
8 38661.41027991 1005.58972009
9 40874.3348338 10553.6651662
10 44638.58794094 13388.4120591
11 48750.74928979 19336.2507102
12 51910.44053426 31390.5594657
13 58480.77323035 5233.22676965
14 65267.83565079 8970.1643492115 73737.40514184 6525.59485816
16 83473.13249619 -5241.13249619
17 90705.06119293 -12816.0611929
18 102665.1199288 -12155.1199288
19 111203.1303854 -4953.13038541
20 127862.8020914 -10562.8020914
21 134438.8382013 2684.16179875
22 142480.6516574 4319.3483426
%n all t,e t,rrunning singl
'ong
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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23 153049.0774264 -6279.07742637
24 161381.7649863 -22309.7649862
25 174733.456689 -10658.456689
26 185279.0688027 5920.93119725
27 200587.0314384 28024.9685616
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"ractor #ales 2281 ; .08< %nstitutional Rural Credit
F Signicance F
470.77346945 9.822514E-018
P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%! "##er 9$%!
9.85544E-007 16509.102824 32068.512191 16509.102824 32068.5121919.82251E-018 516.20380243 624.47895731 516.20380243 624.47895731
e 'R6 =-5alue for Annual Rainfall factor is $ore t,an 0806 ,ence re>ected8e factor linear regression:
"er$ (in billlion Rs Residual Plot
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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n
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"ractor #ales 2281
Year %nstitutional Rural Credit
1970-71 5.22 157601971-72 6.38 16575
1972-73 7.92 18354
1973-74 9.85 19875
1974-75 11.50 26578
1975-76 17.72 32765
1976-77 21.60 33473
1977-78 25.20 39667
1978-79 29.08 51428
1979-80 35.68 58027
1980-81 42.89 68087
1981-82 48.43 83301
1982-83 59.95 63714
1983-84 71.85 74238
1984-85 86.70 80263
1985-86 103.77 78232
1986-87 116.45 77889
1987-88 137.42 90510
1988-89 152.39 106250
1989-90 181.60 117300
1990-91 193.13 137123
1991-92 207.23 1468001992-93 225.76 146770
1993-94 240.37 139072
1994-95 263.78 164075
1995-96 282.27 191200
1996-97 309.11 228612
199.-9 329.50 22./
199-99 338.86 2/
1999-00 497.24 2/0./2
2000-01 373.02 2.19
2001-02 452.34 2100
2002-0 542.24 1/.02
200-0 704.54 191/..
200-0 862.59 2.1
200-0/ 1079.88 290/
200/-0. 1324.77 2.1
"ractors Actual#ales
Forecast Calculations:
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.08< %nstitutional Rural Credit
"ractors Forcasted #ales
2726627928
28806
29907
30848
34395
36608
38662
40875
44639
48751
51911
58481
65268
73738
83474
90706
102666
111204
127864
134441
142482153051
161384
174736
185282
200590
rror
?-A @@ @@A AP
212219 41057 41057 0.162103 /82
21. 39000 39000 0.152014
0.90 -47128 47128 0.18073
2.01 148 148 0.000625
2221 -67276 67276 0.312904
-167853 167853 1.012984
2/12 -234446 234446 1.223132
1/2/. -268736 268736 1.085666
/019 -349652 349652 1.203432
..9.1 -427090 427090 1.210639
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#&ARY )&"P&"
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9739585625
R Square 0.9485952815
Adjusted R Square 0.9465390928Standard Errr 13204.257889
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df
Re&ressin 1
Residual 25
'tal 26
Coecients
(nter)ept -233739.19632GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%)*(+000 ,ectare 6.9598011713
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"ractor #ales -2.982 ; /89
SS MS F Signicance F
80435169146.8 80435169147 461.33667773 1.249561E-017
4358810659.84 174352426.39
84793979806.7
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9!
15074.3395837 -15.505766937 2.47372E-014 -264785.37985 -202693.012790.3240319549 21.478749445 1.24956E-017 6.2924448678 7.6271574747
%n all t,e t,ree 'R6 =-5alue for Annual Rainfall factor isingle factor linear regression:
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"ractor #ales -2.982
Year GR)## ARA &*DR %RR%GA"%)
1970-71 33880 157601971-72 33675 16575
1972-73 34465 18354
1973-74 35318 19875
1974-75 36689 26578
1975-76 38538 32765
1976-77 38847 33473
1977-78 40562 39667
1978-79 42489 51428
1979-80 43053 58027
1980-81 42932 680871981-82 43934 83301
1982-83 44453 63714
1983-84 46249 74238
1984-85 46262 80263
1985-86 46128 78232
1986-87 47723 77889
1987-88 46826 90510
1988-89 50808 106250
1989-90 51313 117300
1990-91 52134 137123
1991-92 53432 146800
1992-93 54744 146770
1993-94 56135 139072
1994-95 58035 164075
1995-96 58062 191200
1996-97 61409 228612
199.-9 62271 22./
199-99 65341 2/
1999-00 66247 2/0./2
2000-01 64183 2.19
2001-02 66109 2100
2002-0 61722 1/.02
200-0 65176 191/..
200-0 66298 2.1
200-0/ 67968 290/
"ractors Actual#ales
Forecast Calculations:
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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200/-0. 70493 2.1
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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/89/< Area under %rrigation
"ractors Forcasted #ales
2066639
6137
12074
21616
34485
36636
48572
61984
65910
6506872041
75654
88154
88244
87312
98413
92170
119884
123399
129113
138148
147279
156960
170184
170372
193669
rror
?-A @@ @@A AP
199// 53608 53608 0.211658 1890/.
22102 35526 35526 0.138472
22.1 33421 33421 0.128169
2129.2 24217 24217 0.102101
22/1 -11376 11376 0.052912
19 -30143 30143 0.181909
219/ -28209 28209 0.147171
22./9. 19834 19834 0.080129
291 51228 51228 0.176317
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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2/91 95890 95890 0.271811
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#&ARY )&"P&"
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9737608907
R Square 0.9482102723
Adjusted R Square 0.9461386832 Standard Errr 13253.614036
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df SS MS
Re&ressin 1 80402522681.2 80402522681
Residual 25 4391457125.45 175658285
'tal 26 84793979806.7
Coecients Standard Error t Stat
%nterce=t -157119.23927 11619.2855258 -13.5222806GDP 0.8638921217 0.0403793194 21.394420056
%n all t,e t,rsingle factor
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"ractor #ales -1.119 ; 08/< GDP(Agricultural ! Allied Acti5ities
F Signicance F
457.72120952 1.371977E-017
P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%! "##er 9$%!
5.32846E-013 -181049.60577 -133188.87278 -181049.60577 -133188.872781.37198E-017 0.7807293566 0.9470548869 0.7807293566 0.9470548869
e 'R6 =-5alue for Annual Rainfall factor is $ore t,an 0806 ,ence re>ected8 )linear regression:
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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running
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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"ractor #ales -1.119 ; 08/<
Year GDP Agriculture and Allied sect
1970-71 209842.98 157601971-72 205903.46 16575
1972-73 195570.24 18354
1973-74 209655.02 19875
1974-75 206461.23 26578
1975-76 233073.63 32765
1976-77 219606.21 33473
1977-78 241646.45 39667
1978-79 247210.37 51428
1979-80 215630.01 58027
1980-81 243420.90 680871981-82 254622.33 83301
1982-83 253907.26 63714
1983-84 279605.15 74238
1984-85 284037.15 80263
1985-86 284929.80 78232
1986-87 283763.06 77889
1987-88 279257.48 90510
1988-89 322932.36 106250
1989-90 326772.53 117300
1990-91 339892.76 137123
1991-92 333256.39 146800
1992-93 355421.30 146770
1993-94 367230.91 139072
1994-95 384549.44 164075
1995-96 381875.38 191200
1996-97 419758.56 228612
199.-9 409039.06 22./
199-99 434892.19 2/
1999-00 446515.30 2/0./2
2000-01 445402.59 2.19
2001-02 473248.49 2100
2002-0 438966.26 1/.02
200-0 482676.52 191/..
200-0 482910.17 2.1
200-0/ 511113.98 290/
"ractors Actual#ales
Forecast Calculations:
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200/-0. 531315.45 2.1
8/19/2019 Regression Final
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DP(Agricultural ! Allied Acti5ities
"ractors Forcasted #ales
2418520782
11854
24023
21263
44257
32621
51664
56471
29185
5319762875
62257
84460
88289
89060
88052
84159
121895
125212
136548
130815
149965
160169
175132
172821
205552
rror
?-A @@ @@A AP
19/291 56985 56985 0.224993 1/819
21/2 37930 37930 0.147842
22/.0 32092 32092 0.123069
22..09 9480 9480 0.039969
21./ -36763 36763 0.170985
2221 -56446 56446 0.340647
2991 -68237 68237 0.355997
2/011 -12584 12584 0.05084
2 6063 6063 0.020866
8/19/2019 Regression Final
53/55
019 50843 50843 0.144122
8/19/2019 Regression Final
54/55
8/19/2019 Regression Final
55/55