Reducing Vulnerability to Drought through Mitigation
and PreparednessReport to the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction
Sixth Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 24-25 October 2002
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, DirectorNational Drought Mitigation Center
International Drought Information CenterUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln
U.S.A.
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1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Percent Area of the United States in Severe and Extreme Drought
January 1895–July 2002
%
Based on data from the National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
Drought differs from other natural hazards
Slow-onset, creeping phenomena (early warning systems, impact assessment, response)Absence of universal definition (leads to confusion and inaction)Severity is best described through multiple indicators and indicesImpacts are non-structural and spread over large areas (makes assessment and response difficult; mitigation actions less obvious)RESULT, progress on drought preparedness has been slow
Common Types of Drought Impacts
Economic
Social
Environmental
Trends in Drought Impacts
Impacts are increasing in response to growing vulnerability resulting from increased pressure on limited water resources, increasing population and many other factors.
Post-impact response increases vulnerability.
Impacts differ within and between countries, reflecting who and what is at risk and why.
Trends in Drought Impacts
Impacts are escalating in developed and developing countries, but the types of impacts differ.
More humid, less drought-prone regions often illustrate greater vulnerability.
Developed countries have more resources to respond, but may be no better prepared to deal with drought in a proactive manner.
The problem of definition
No universal definition
Impact/sector specific; region specific
Drought typesMeteorological
Agricultural
Hydrological
Socio-economic
Drought types can occur separately or simultaneously
Spatial Extent
Key Drought Indicators
Climate variables (e.g., precip., temp.)
Reservoir and lake levels
Soil moisture
Ground water
Snow pack
Stream flow
Vegetation
Forecasts
Common Drought Indices
Percent of NormalDecilesPalmer Drought Index
PDSI, PHDI, CMI
Surface Water Supply IndexStandardized Precipitation IndexVegetation indices (NDVI, VCI, SVI)U.S. Drought Monitor
Composite index approach
Shortcomings of DEWSData networksData sharingEarly warning system productsDrought forecastsDrought monitoring toolsIntegrated drought/climate/water supply monitoringImpact assessment methodologiesDelivery systemsGlobal early warning systems
Components of Drought for Risk Management
(social factors)(natural event)
Climatology, Probabilities, Forecasts
Population growth and shiftsUrbanizationTechnologyLand use practicesEnvironment degradationWater use trendsGovernment policiesEnvironmental awareness
Drought—a vision of the future
Increased frequency and severity of meteorological droughts
Increased impacts associated with increased vulnerability
Combination of the two—increasing risk because of greater frequency of meteorological drought and increased vulnerability and greater impacts
Critical Issues for ISDR
Improve collection, processing, and availability of meteorological and hydrological data
Improve predictive capacities and use of forecasts in decision making
Improve understanding of drought causes at regional and national scales
Critical Issues for ISDR
Improve understanding of drought climatology and drought patterns
Inventory climate and water resource indicators and indices
Develop indicators, indices, and products for hazard assessment
Develop decision support models for end users and encourage feedback of impact assessment products
Critical Issues for ISDR
Develop and disseminate risk and vulnerability assessment tools
Disseminate drought planning methodologies
Integrate local or indigenous coping mechanisms as a part of drought risk reduction
Create drought impact reduction strategies as an integral part of drought preparedness plans
Develop drought policies at the regional and national level
Critical Issues for ISDR
Assess availability of skilled human resources needed for drought preparedness planning
Educate policy makers and the public on the need for improved drought preparedness as an integral part of water resources management
Critical Issues for ISDR
Support creation of regional drought preparedness networks to enhance regional capacity in sharing lessons learned
Enhance regional and international collaboration
Recognize the role of WMO, ISDR, NMHSs, and regional/national institutions in drought early warning and preparedness
Global Drought Preparedness Network
GOAL:
To help nations build greater institutional capacity to cope with drought by promoting risk management and sharing lessons learned on drought monitoring, mitigation, and preparedness.
Building Regional and Global Partnerships
Individually, many nations will be unable to improve drought coping capacity.
Collectively, through global, regional, and national partnerships, we can share information and experiences to reduce the impacts of drought.
Global Drought Preparedness Network
Regional Network Objectives
exchange of information
the use of common indices or indicators for early warning
data availability
scientific collaboration
drought policy development
drought planning methods and mitigation programs and actions
Must be region specific—possible objectives are to promote
http://drought.unl.edu
Regional Drought Preparedness Networks
GDPN
(NDMC)
SSA
Med
Europe
SAm
CAm
SAsiaEAsia
NAm
Next Steps: Regional Networks
Select one or more regions as demonstration projectsIdentify potential sources of financial support for each regional networkOrganize a launching workshop for each region involving key institutionsIdentify scope, objectives, and activities for each regional networkDevelop strategies for coordinating network development—what is the role of the NDMC?
Regional networks can facilitate development of drought early
warning systems, preparedness plans, and policies aimed at
vulnerability reduction.
Thanks for your attention!
Visit the NDMChttp://drought.unl.edu