Recent Applications of Agricultural Water Models
Duncan MacEwan
ERA Economics
California Water and Environmental Modeling ForumTechnical Workshop
Economic Modeling of Agricultural Water Use and Production
January 31, 2014
Some important points Integration with other models
Evaluate simultaneous (and inter-related) policy changes Linkage to I/O models
Motivating the analysis Key question and client needs Political sensitivity Important innovations
Data requirements Time consuming and difficult
Examples Yolo Bypass Water Markets Other recent applications
Yolo Bypass – Motivation Policy application
› Client: Yolo County and now Reclamation› Evaluate economic impacts of changes in the
frequency and duration of bypass inundation Data requirements
› What is grown in the bypass, and where?› Crop budgets› Flood inundation footprint
Key considerations› Spatial scale › Grower planting decisions
Yolo Bypass – Application Model framework
› Bypass Production Model Regional agricultural economic model
› HEC-RAS Other models
› DayCent Crop growth model
› IMPLAN Multiplier effects – jobs, taxes, value added
Data DAYCENT Model BPM IMPLAN Results
CM2 February 15 March 24 April 10 April 30 May 150
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Value Added Losses with 3,000 cfs (in thousands)
Direct Indirect+Induced
CM2 February 15 March 24 April 10 April 30 May 150
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
Value Added Losses with 6,000 cfs (in thousands)
Direct Indirect+Induced
Yolo Bypass – Summary Key results
› Linkage: Flood – Crop Growth – Economics› Coordination with bypass landowners› Comprehensive data collection
Engage stakeholders for project approval
Water Markets – Motivation Policy application
› Use the SWAP and CALVIN models to evaluate South-of-Delta drought water markets
› Using 2009 drought as an example Data requirements
› Standard SWAP data requirements› Linkage to CALVIN› Transfer capacities and constraints
Key considerations› Evaluate the economic and hydrologic gradient
of water transfers› Water in California varies greatly by space and
time
Water Markets – Application Model framework
› SWAP Agricultural economics
› CALVIN Transfer capacities and system linkage
Calibrate against standard SWAP data Policy evaluation
› 2009 drought› Groundwater replacement› Local supplies
South of the Delta Water Trade Analysis Export Regions
Import
Regions
(V11)Stanislaus
River (V12)
Turlock(V13)
Merced(V14B)
SW Kings County
(V15A)Tulare
(V17)Kings River
(V21A)Kern Total Imports (AF)
(V10)SJR Exchg Contractors 17,587 53,186 22,109 0 0 0 0 92,882
(V14A)Westlands 0 0 0 13,665 70,000 0 0 83,665
(V15B)Castaic Lake Area 0 0 0 0 16,270 0 0 16,270
(V19A)Kern 0 0 0 0 0 0 68,121 68,121
(V20)Kern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(V21B)Kern 0 0 0 0 0 0 15,747 15,747
(V21C)Kern 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,513 6,513
Total Exports 17,587 53,186 22,109 13,665 86,270 0 90,381 283,197
No market adjustment› Revenue loss $512 million
Local market effects› Water traded 283 K Ac ft› Net revenue gain $109.5 million
Water Markets – Summary Key results
› New market links require new market institutions
› Important to let economic gradient inform water transfers
Linkage between SWAP and CALVIN
Other Applications I Santa Clara Valley Water District
› Economic impacts of changes in the agricultural groundwater charge
Solano County› Economic impacts of BDCP Conservation
Measure 4 Solano County and Cache Slough ROA
Diageo Wine Supply and Demand› Model of wine supply chain management
and response to market shocks
Other Applications II Salinas Valley Model
› Genes to Growers USDA project› Integrate agronomic information into
Salinas Valley model to evaluate changes in nitrogen and water use efficiency
SWAP – Groundwater Dynamics› Project under way to link SWAP and C2VSim
CVP - Integrated Resource Plan› SWAP model linkage to:
Water, climate, costs, demands, and urban growth
Other Applications III North of the Delta Offstream Storage
Investigation› SWAP model update and application to federal
feasibility analysis› National Economic Development (NED) Benefits
Summary Workbook Pre-processing adjustments
Consistent interest rates Disaggregate input cost data Power costs
Post-processing adjustments Input costs Fallow land costs Management charge Federal discount rate Normalized crop prices
Summary Example applications highlight:
› Integrated modeling capabilities› Project-specific motivating factors› Data requirements
Applications in progress:› Remote sensing, calibration methods,
dynamics Richard Howitt @ 4pm