1
PWI Seminar
“Future proofing our railway against climate change”
Robert AmpomahChief Technology Officer,
Network Rail
2
CAREER JOURNEY
Briti
sh R
ail
3
▪ Buckles/derailments▪ Equipment failures▪ Embankment desiccation▪ Damage from storms▪ Damage from
flooding/heavy rain▪ Speed restrictions
Weather impact on our Infrastructure:
Damaged wheel
Fallen trees on the track
Damaged wheel
Speed Restrictions
Points failures
Electrical Component FailuresDesiccation of earthworksDerailment due to buckle
at LangworthFallen trees on the
track
Flooding and land slips
Carmontderailment
4
Weather related failures on other assets impacts TrackHeavy and convective rainfall and sea level rises will affect earthworks, structures and drainage systems
Dawlish 2007
Dawlish 2014
5
Climate Emergency?
6
Weather related impact on the railway are rising with the increased frequency of events.
For Track assets the Cost of heat related delays in the long hot summer of 2018 estimated at £20mill (in Sch.8)
Worse than hot summers of 2006 and 2003 (estimated at £2.2mill and £12mill resp.)
Cost of Weather related failures
7
Vulnerable Track Assets will become more prone to buckling
8
36oC
38oC
38oC
41oC
38oC
41oC
41oC
37oC
35oC
42oC
39oC
39oC
41oC
42oC
44oC
41oC
44oC
44oC
40oC
37oC
45oC
41oC
Fig 1: Projected max temps - 2050 Fig 2: Projected max temps - 2070
By 2050 peak temperatures• Scotland peak temps of 35 deg C
• South East peak temps of 42 deg C
By 2070 peak temperatures• Scotland Peak temps of 39 deg C
• SE Peak temps of 45 deg C
Track condition
Apply Watchman
Impose 30/60mph
speed restriction
Impose 20mph speed
restriction
Good condition SFT + 32 SFT + 37 SFT + 42
Ballast shortage SFT + 15 SFT + 18 SFT + 20
In general CWR Track is resilient to the rail temperature values above (with SFT of 27oC)
(Equivalent to air temps of approx. 40oC)
9
Impact of hot weather on infrastructureStandard deviation trend calc. in delays due to hot weather
As the temperature rises incident count and passenger train delays increase.
10
What other impact is climate change projected to have? • Very Cold winters will become less frequent (but may still be very
cold)
• Likelihood of earthwork failures from shrink-swell effect of drought and convective rainfall
• Major floods and coastal storms could become five times more frequent by 2070
• Wind speeds, lightning and humidity may increase
• High risk of sea level rise and severe coastal erosion
All of which will affect how our network performs
11
Government and rail industry demand improvements in system resilience to cope with our changing climate.Six aspects of resilience have been outlined in the National Infrastructure Commission report in May 2020 for the UK government
Extreme weather vs. railways
“A railway that is safe and more resilient to
the effects of weather, now and in
the future”
The Future Railway therefore needs to have:▪ High reliability▪ More capacity▪ Better value for money▪ A 'predict and prevent' ethos
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Projected S&C Construction Type - Base Case
UIC-60 113lb FB Other FB Bullhead Other (inc unknown) 12
• Based on current policy and projected renewal volumes
o Plainline - 62% installed to modern standard by 2050
o S&C - 33% installed to modern variant (UIC60) by 2050 (but includes all mainline and secondary line connections)
We also need to implement:• Enhanced, risk based and targeted
summer and seasonal prep activities including shared best practice
• Development of track ‘predict and prevent’ tools and embedded measurement technology
Track policy delivery:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Projected Plain Line Construction Type - Base Case
F40 and later Older concrete Timber Steel Other (inc unknown)
Weather Resilience & Climate Change
Adaptation
Structures
PT&RSS&C
Buildings Mining and Tunnels
Lineside(Vegetation
Management)
Drainage
Track
Earthworks
CERDs
Scour
Maintenance
Control, Command and Signalling
Electrical and Plant
CERDs – Coastal, Estuarine and River DefencesPT&RS – Plant, Traction and Rolling StockS&C – Switches and Crossings
13
Network Rail’s Weather Resilience and Climate Change policy defines how we will plan and manage weather impacts and how we consider climate change into our asset adaptation plans.
➢Each asset will have this policy embedded into individual asset policies and will need to incorporate these into Route asset management strategies.
➢Our plans will drive us to:• Anticipate effects of weather• Develop ways to Resist weather impacts• Absorb the risks through improved design
thresholds• Implement robust recovery plans through incident
response • And Adapt to the threat of adverse and extreme
weather
What Actions are we taking?Network Rail’s Climate change policy
NR WRCCA PolicyConsider how climate change might amplify risk
Adapt at construction and at asset renewal Replace like for better rather than like for like
14
What Actions are we taking?Developing vulnerability ‘hotspots’ GIS maps
NR are undertaking:• Vulnerability risk assessment of
weather and climate impacts• Determining the economic impact
of rail disruption on UK • The assessment will feed into a
system-wide vulnerability tool • Creation of better tools to provide
better knowledge (decision support tools)
15
• Network Rail’s Climate Change guidance supporting risk assessment and adaptation across all assets.
• Network Rail Routes produce and deliver Weather Resilience strategies
• Activities focussed on increasing resilience on existing assets (example at CowleyBridge – Wales)
• Measuring local and national economic impact and effect
What does adaptation look like?Adaptation pathways – for managing flooding! Define preparation and preparedness strategies and restore operation after damage has occurred/ to minimise disruption
16
Looking ahead (Track)• Research and Development of dynamic lateral resistance
models to determine vulnerability risk and Act early• Vulnerability mapping for all assets – using GIS tools • Apply wider Systems thinking• Further research and detailed analysis into Stress Free
Temperature range for UK (Regionalised SFT?)
• Predict and Prevent decision support tools• Improve and adapt construction and maintenance
practices, new skills and competences• Alterations to track tolerances in NR standards and Asset
policies (improved alignment, track geometry and track bed/ballast)
17
18
▪ Climate change is happening and we need to adapt▪ Extreme high temperatures will increase incidence of rail buckles and a
significant rise in train delays from speed restrictions▪ Collaboration across industry, with Universities, other external agencies and
the supply chain is necessary
To conclude:
Our Ability to make intelligent decisions thanks to the availability of data and having the right technology available to prevent problems, will allow the railways to adapt from our Victorian past, to the green,
sustainable transport option of the future and to cope with the challenges presented by a changing climate
Thank you!
There’s got to be a
better way!