PUTIN IN PERSPECTIVE
PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA
University of Strathclyde
www.cspp.strath.ac.uk
www.RussiaVotes.org
SCOTTISH RUSSIA FORUM
Edinburgh 22 March 2012
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FINAL RESULT OF THE DUMA ELECTION, 4 DECEMBER 2011 2011 2007 Electorate 109,237,780 % 109,145,517 % Valid Votes 64,623,062 59.2 68,777,136 63.0 Invalid Votes 1,033,464 0.9 759,929 0.7 Total Votes 65,656,526 60.1 69,537,065 63.7
LIST VOTE 1 SEATS 2011 2007 2011 2007
Parties (leaders) on ballot N % % N % N % United Russia (Medvedev) 32,379,135 49.3 64.3 238 52.9 315 70.0 Communists (Zyuganov-Komoedov-Afonin) 12,599,507 19.2 11.6 92 20.4 57 12.7 Fair Russia (Mironov-Goryacheva) 8,695,522 13.2 7.7 64 14.2 38 8.4 Liberal Democrats (Zhirinovsky-Ostrovsky- Lebedev) 7,664,570 11.7 8.1 56 12.4 40 8.9 Yabloko (Yavlinsky-Mitrokhin-Yablokov) 2,252,403 3.4 1.6 0 0 0 0 Patriots of Russia (Semigin-Makhovikov- Korneeva) 639,119 1.0 0.9 0 0 0 0 Right Cause (Dunaev-Bogdanov- Chakvetadze)2 392,806 0.6 n.a. 0 0 n.a. n.a. Agrarians (Plotnikov-Brusnikov-Shandybin) n.a. n.a. 2.3 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Civic Strength (Barshchevsky-Ryavkin- Pokhmelkin) n.a. n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Party of Social Fairness (Podberezkin- Leskov-Vorotnikov)3 n.a. n.a. 0.2 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Democratic Party of Russia (Bogdanov- Smirnov-Gimazov) n.a. n.a. 0.1 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Notes: n.a.: The party did not stand in the 2011 election.
1 In 2011 and 2007 all 450 seats were assigned by the largest remainder method to lists of parties winning a minimum of 7.0 percent of the national vote. 2 Created in 2008 on the basis of three liberal parties Civic Strength, Democratic Party of Russia and Union of Right Forces.3 Part of a bloc with Party of Pensioners.Source: Central Electoral Commission, http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru, accessed 22.02.12
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PRELIMINARY RESULT OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 4TH MARCH 2012
Votes % Electorate
Electorate 109,860,331
Invalid votes 836,691 0.8
Valid votes 70,864,974 64.5
Total votes 71,701,665 65.3
% Total Vote
Vladimir Putin, United Russia 45,602,075 63.60
Gennady Zyuganov, KPRF 12,318,353 17.18
Mikhail Prokhorov, Ind. 5,722,508 7.98
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR 4,458,103 6.22
Sergei Mironov, Fair Russia 2,763,935 3.85
Source: Central Electoral Commission, 2012. "Dannie o predvarytelnyh itogah golosovania."http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru, accessed 13 March.
4
5
14
57
64 65
53
69
77
84
7470
74
49 4854
46 47 48 48
25 25
1610
1922
26 283739
47
36 3538 36
3237
45
31
23
0
20
40
60
80
100
92 93 94 95 96a 96b 98 00a 00b 01 03a 03b 04 05 07a 07b 08 09 11
EVALUATION OF CURRENT REGIME
3b. Here is a scale ranking how well our system of government works. The top, plus 100, is the best and the bottom, minus 100, is the worst. Where on this scale would you put our current system of government?
Positive
Negative
Percent responding%
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WHAT MATTERS FOR REGIME SUPPORT: FOUR HYPOTHESES
Differences in regime support depend on
♦1. Socialization: What individuals have learned from their roles in society.
♦2. Politics: How individuals evaluate the performance of political institutions.
♦3. Economics: How individuals evaluate household and national economic conditions.
♦4. Time: When individuals make evaluations and how long the new regime has been in place.
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EVALUATION OF CURRENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM
1b. Here is a scale ranking how well an economy works. The top, plus 100, is the best and the bottom, minus 100, is the worst. Where on this scale would you put our current economic system?
Percent respondingPositive
Negative
%
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WHAT'S CHANGED?
♦ Not the economy: GDP growth in 2011: 4.2%
♦ Not corruption. Russia still low by Transparency International standards
♦ New middle class?
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HOW TYPICAL ARE THE DEMONSTRATORS?
Demonstrators Moscovites Russians% % %
Age under 35 50% 34%
University education 83% 46% 39%
Income good 72% 52% 23%
Duma vote Yabloko 37% 7% 3%
United R <1% 18% 49%
Source: Levada Centre surveys, December, 2011
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HOW MUCH SYMPATHY FOR THE DEMONSTRATORS
18-29 30-59 60+ Total % % % %
60. Generally speaking, do you support street protests against violations in the conduct of the election and fraud in results? Definitely support 12 15 14 14 Mostly support 28 30 27 29 Mostly oppose 28 25 30 27 Entirely oppose 15 14 15 15 [Don’t read] Hard to say 15 14 15 15
66a. If new mass protests were held in your city or district against violations and fraud, would you be prepared to participate? Definitely yes 7 4 1 4 Probably yes 10 11 18 12 Probably no 27 31 22 28 Definitely no 46 45 47 46 [Don’t read] Hard to say 9 9 12 10
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HOW MUCH SYMPATHY FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN?
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HOW PRACTICAL ARE THE DEMANDS OF DEMONSTRATORS?
Annul elections ?
Get rid of corruption ?