Download pdf - Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration

The Public Opinion Landscape – Inauguration Edition

January 18, 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1

1. A Look Back at 2012……………………………………………………….…...2

2. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future…………………………………………………………………………….….10

3. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………16

4. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....27

Slide

Year in Review: 2012 Year in Review: 2012

PUBLIC’S TOP STORIES OF 2012: ECONOMY NEVER FAR FROM THE TOP

3

Story % Followed Very Closely

2012 election (Nov 8-11)* 60%

Newtown, CT shooting (Dec 16) 57% Hurricane Sandy (Nov 1-4)* 53% Price of gas (Mar 15-18)* 52%

Aurora, CO shooting (Jul 19-22)* 48% Health care decision (Jun 28-Jul 1) 45% US Economy (Oct 25-28)* 44%

US Embassy Attacks (Sep 13-16)* 43%

Story % Followed Very Closely

Fiscal Cliff negotiations (Nov 30-Dec 2)* 40%

Obama on gay marriage (May 10-13) 37%

Trayvon Martin killing (Mar 22-25)* 35%

Deadly Midwest storms (Mar 1-4) 33%

Summer Olympics (Aug 6-12) 31%

Hurricane Isaac (Aug 31- Sep 3) 31%

Libya investigation (Oct 18-21)* 31%

Source: Pew Research Center News Interest Index

As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. First, The Economy….

The election was the most closely followed story for most of 2012

Note: Dates show field period of the survey in which interest was measured. * Interest in these stories was tracked over multiple weeks; highest weekly interest is shown here.

VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS WERE MIXED THROUGHOUT THE YEAR

19%

64%

56%

68% 65%

55%

68%

53% 60%

50%

30%

39%

60% 62% 60% 55%

62% 59%

80%

31%

41%

27% 30%

39%

24%

38%

33% 35%

67%

61%

48%

36%

24% 30%

41%

28% 32%

1% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4%

7% 7% 6% 2%

2% 3% 9% 11% 6% 10%

6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Dec-

08Fe

b-09

Apr-

09Ju

n-09

Aug-

09O

ct-0

9De

c-09

Feb-

10Ap

r-10

Jun-

10Au

g-10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10Fe

b-11

Apr-

11Ju

n-11

Aug-

11O

ct-1

1De

c-11

Feb-

12Ap

r-12

Jun-

12Au

g-12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12

A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News

4

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 3-6, 2013

Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a mix of both good and bad news?

Mix of good and bad news

Mostly bad news

Mostly good news

2012: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET

5

Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com

61.5

71.6 69.5 68.7 64.4 62.7

65.4 61.3

68.4 73.1 71.5

65.1

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

US Consumer Confidence

Dow Jones

THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS

6

INDICATOR THEN January 2012

NOW December 2012

Unemployment Rate 8.3% 7.8%

Inflation Rate 2.9% 1.7%

Stock Market (DJIA) 12,359.92 13,104.14

Consumer Confidence Index 61.5 65.1

U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%

U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate 1 78.83 79.67

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/ . http://www.fxstreet.com/

1 The US Dollar Index is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar measuring the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies which includes: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK.

THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY

61% 53%

23% 23%

79% 69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad*

7

End of 2012

Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll

Beginning of 2012

Compared with other years, do you think that 2011 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?

One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst

2% 7% 27% 43% 21%

THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA

48%

53%

45%

49%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy

8

Beginning of 2012 End of 2012

Source: NBC/WSJ survey

DISSATISFACTION WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

9

Source: Gallup Poll, January 10, 2013

10

Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

OPTIMISM THAT WE SAW TOWARD END OF 2012 MAY BE LEVELING OFF

11

Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 16, 2013

Election Optimism?

The trend shows a sharp increase in

optimism between July 2012 and

November 2012. It has since leveled off.

RIGHT DIRECTION 35.7%

WRONG TRACK 54.6%

AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY HAVE STAGNATED AS WE BEGIN THE NEW YEAR

Source: CBS News Poll, December 12-16, 2012

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

32% 30%

23% 22% 24% 28%

30% 30%

28% 28% 23%

50% 45%

49% 43% 44%

38% 45% 43%

39%

35%

43%

18% 24%

28% 34%

30% 33%

24% 25%

32% 36% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Staying the Same

Getting worse

Getting better

12

DEBT, GOVERNMENT DYSFUNCTION RISE TO TOP OF AMERICANS’ ISSUE LIST

13

Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

26%

30%

26% 25% 22%

25% 28%

23%

32%

26%

20% 17%

16%

31% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31% 29%

31%

29%

37% 30%

23% 21%

15% 16% 13% 12%

14% 12% 13%

15% 12%

9%

15% 14% 18%

8% 8% 9% 11%

9% 11%

7% 7% 10%

12%

11% 13%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Jan2012

Feb2012

Mar2012

Apr2012

May2012

June2012

July2012

Aug2012

Sept2012

Oct2012

Nov2012

Dec2012

Jan2013

Unemployment Economy Dissatisfaction with gov't Federal Budget Deficit

Unemployment

Economy

Dissatisfaction with gov’t

Deficit

JOB SITUATION REMAINS GLOOMY

14

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 5 - December 9, 2012

Thinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of jobs available in your community or are jobs difficult to find?

22%

68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jobs are difficult to find

Plenty of jobs are available

MANY PREDICT 2013 WILL BE A YEAR OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTY

15

Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, December 14-17, 2012

16

Perceptions of Obama & Congress

73%

62% 58%

54% 52% 51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Eisenhower(1957)

Reagan(1985)

Clinton(1997)

Obama(2013)

G.W. Bush(2005)

Nixon(1973)

17

OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL COMPARABLE TO PAST PRESIDENTS AT START OF 2nd TERM

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of First Year of 2nd Term

Weekly Approval Rating Average

Jan 7 - 13

OBAMA WALKS INTO SECOND TERM STRONGER THAN BUSH

58%

44% 48%

55%

Bush (2004) Obama (2012)

January Approval Rating December Approval Rating

18

• President Bush’s approval rating dropped 10 points the year he was re-elected.

• President Obama’s has increased 11 points.

Source: Pew Research Center, December 5-9, 2012

+11 -10

PERCEPTION OF OBAMA ADMIN. BIGGEST ACCOMPLISHMENTS & FAILURES

19

Which ONE of these would you say is the most positive accomplishment of the Obama Administration?

Most Positive Accomplishment

Bringing troops home (Iraq) 22%

Killing Osama bin Laden 21% Holding the line on Middle Class & raising taxes on wealthy 15%

Preventing another depression 12%

Passing Obamacare 12%

Saving the Auto industry 7%

None of these 9%

Biggest Failure

Unable to improve economy 21%

Increased Govt. spending 21%

Kept troops in Afghanistan 16%

Passing Obamacare 14%

Raising taxes on the wealthy 6%

Didn't provide strong leadership 5%

Too much business regulation 5%

None of these 8%

Which ONE of these would you say is the biggest failure of the Obama Administration?

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15

EXPECTATIONS FOR OBAMA HIGHER THAN CLINTON’S IN 1996

39%

46%

14%

46%

31%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Better About the same Worse

Clinton Obama

20

Note: “No Opinion” not shown

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, December 17-18, 2012

Looking ahead to the next four years, do you expect [Bill Clinton/Barack Obama] to do a better job as president, about the same, or a worse job as president than he did in his first term?

U.S. PRESIDENTS TYPICALLY LESS POPULAR IN SECOND TERM

21

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Presidential Approval Averages, by Terms First-term average approval

rating

Second-term

approval rating

Net change, second

minus first term

Harry Truman 56% 36% -20

Dwight Eisenhower 70% 60% -10

Lyndon Johnson 74% 50% -24

Richard Nixon 56% 34% -22

Ronald Reagan 50% 55% +5

Bill Clinton 50% 61% +11

George W. Bush 62% 37% -25

Barack Obama 49% ? ?

Reagan and Clinton Only Ones Who Scored Better During Second Term

BIDEN’S CURRENT RATING IS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN HIS PREDECESSOR

22


Vice Presidents at Start of Second Term

Gore Jan 1997

Cheney Mar 2005

Biden Jan 2013

% % % Favorable 65 48 42 Unfavorable 29 42 42 Don’t Know 6 10 16

AMERICANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THEIR SITUATION, PESSIMISTIC ABOUT WASHINGTON

66%

55%

48% 46% 46%

30%

41%

49% 51% 51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Family's financialsituation

Policies Obamawill pursue insecond term

Economy The way thingsare going in the

country

Chances Obamaand GOP will work

together

Optimistic Pessimistic

23

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 24, 2012

REPUBLICANS BLAMED MOST FOR GRIDLOCK

47%

24% 21%

Congressional GOP Obama & Democrats Both equally*0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

24

* “Both equally” was not offered as a response, but was recorded when mentioned

Note: “Don’t know” and non applicable answers not shown

Source: CBS News Poll, December 18, 2012

Who do you blame more for the difficulties in reaching agreements and passing legislation in Congress?

CONGRESS BEGINS 2013 WITH 14% APPROVAL

25

Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013

Annual average for 2012, 15%, was lowest in Gallup history

NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE

26

Do approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job?

Do approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are doing their job?

Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 10-13, 2013

Approve 37%

Disapprove 59%

No opinion 3%

Approve 24%

Disapprove 71%

No opinion 4%

27

Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward

TOP PRIORITIES FOR 2013-2014: EMPHASIZING EDUCATION AND AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE

7%

12%

16%

23%

30%

33%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Greater Equality & Opportunities for Women

Corporate Oversight

Addressing & Reducing Violence

Improved Morals/Values

More Personal Freedom/Less Gov.

Access to Affordable Healthcare

Education Emphasis

What kinds of things would you like to see leaders in Washington deal with over the next few years?

28

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15

YET, ECONOMIC RECOVERY STILL TOP CONCERN

29

95 88

79 73 73 72

70 62

50 47

37 29

4 10

14 17 17 20 23

24 23

24 33

29

1 2

7 8 9 6 5

14 25

28 29

38

Repair economy

Stabilize SS and Medicare

Prevent Iran from a nuclear weapon

Reduce US dependence on oil

Make college affordable

Cut federal spending

Lower taxes, eliminate deductions and loopholes

Stop illegal immigration

Global warming

Increase taxes on income >$250K

Create paths to citizenship

Cut defense

How important is it that President Obama accomplish each of the following during his second term as president?

Extremely /Very Somewhat Not too much/at all

Source: Gallup Poll, November 9-12, 2012

TAX REVENUE TOPS OPTIONS TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT; EDUCATION CUTS MOST OPPOSED

Approve Disapprove

Raise income tax on income >$250K 69% 28%

Limit number of deductions 54% 40%

Raise investment taxes 52% 43%

Reduce Medicare benefits for high income seniors 51% 46%

Reduce SS benefits for high income seniors 51% 46%

Reduce defense spending 43% 55%

Raise SS retirement age 42% 56%

Raise Medicare eligibility age 41% 56%

Limit mortgage interested deduction 41% 52%

30

In order to reduce the deficit and national debt…

Approve Disapprove

To help lower-income Americans 38% 58%

For roads and transportation 30% 67%

For education 21% 77%

Reduce federal funding…

A majority of Americans see tax reform as the best way to reducing the deficit and debt.

Source: Pew Research Center, December 5-9, 2012

MAJORITY OF AMERICANS SAY DEBT CEILING SHOULD BE HANDLED SEPARATELY FROM DEBATE ON SPENDING CUTS

31

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 10-13, 2013

If Congress does not raise its borrowing limit in February, the federal government will have to default on its loans and/or shut down some of its operations. Some people say the borrowing limit should be raised only if spending cuts also are put in place. Others say the two issues should be kept separate. Do you think raising the borrowing limit should be tied to spending cuts, or should these be kept as separate issues?

58%

36%

Keep the issues separate Raise debt limit only with spending cuts

MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVOR STRICTER GUN LAWS

32

More strict 56%

Less strict 7%

Kept as they are 35%

Unsure 2%

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, January 12-15, 2013

In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?

AMERICANS OPPOSE ARMING TEACHERS BUT OPEN TO MANY OTHER REFORMS

33

Favor % Oppose % Don’t know %

Ban on semi-automatics 58 39 3 Ban online ammunition sale 53 44 3

Putting armed guards/police in schools 64 32 4 Laws to prevent people with mental illness

from purchasing guns 80 16 4 Making private gun sales and sales at gun

shows subject to background checks 85 12 3

Ban on assault style weapons 55 40 5 Ban on high-capacity ammunition clips that

hold more than 10 bullets 54 42 4 More teachers/school officials having guns

in schools 40 57 3 Creating a federal government database to

track all gun sales

67 30 3

Source: Pew Research Center, January 9-13. 2013

AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ALLOWING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WITH JOBS TO APPLY FOR CITIZENSHIP

34

As you may know, there is a proposal to allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States to apply for legal status. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this proposal?

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15, 2013

Favor 52%

Oppose 46%

Depends / Not Sure, 2%

MOST EXPECT MORE PARTISAN BICKERING IN 2013

35


This coming year, do you think Republicans and Democrats in Washington will work together more to solve problems OR do you think they will bicker and oppose one another more than usual?

41%

53%

30%

50%

30% 23%

50%

39%

59%

39%

63% 66%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Jan2001

Jan2002

Jan2005

Jan2009

Jan2011

Jan2013

Work together more to solveproblems

Bicker & oppose one anothermore than usual

No difference/DK

36

GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])