20/08/98
Protection of the Ozone Layer -
Montreal Protocol:
Themes for 1998
A Presentation Kit
UNEPOzone Secretariat
20/08/98 2
The Montreal Protocol is Working
Scientific assessment shows that the abundance of ozone-depleting chemicals in the lower atmosphere is declining.
However, abundance of Halons is increasing due to releases from banks.
Production of CFCS and Halons has declined by 86 % in the last ten years.
The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.
20/08/98 3
World CFC Production 1950-96
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Thousand Tons
Source: DuPont, Worldwatch estimates
Montreal Protocol Signed (1987)
First Ozone depletion theory published (1974)
20/08/98 4
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
1996
0.00
200,000.00
400,000.00
600,000.00
800,000.00
1,000,000.00
1,200,000.00
OD
P T
on
ne
s
Year
Production of CFCs( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)
Developing Countries
CEIT Countries
Industrialised Countries
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
1996
0.0
200,000.0
400,000.0
600,000.0
800,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,200,000.0
OD
P T
on
ne
s
Year
Consumption of CFCs( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)
Developing Countries
CEIT Countries
Industrialised Countries
CFCs Production and Consumption Trends
20/08/98 5
Halons Production and Consumption Trends
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
1996
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
OD
P T
on
ne
s
Year
Production of Halons( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)
Developing Countries
CEIT Countries
Industrialized Countries
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
1996
0.0
50,000.0
100,000.0
150,000.0
200,000.0
250,000.0
OD
P T
on
ne
s
Year
Consumption of Halons( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)
Developing Countries
CEIT Countries
Industrialized Countries
20/08/98 6
Atmospheric Concentrations of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, Carbon Tetrachloride, Methyl Chloroform and Total Gaseous Chlorine
(Source: World Resource 1998-1999, WRI)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year
Ga
s A
bu
nd
an
ce
in P
PT
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
To
tal G
as
eo
us
Ch
lori
ne
in
PP
T
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-113
Carbon Tetrachloride
Methyl Chloroform
Total Gaseous Chlorine
20/08/98 7
Halons in the Atmosphere
Measured Atmospheric Concentrations of Halon-1211 at Cape Grim, Tasmania
(Source: Stratopheric Ozone 1996)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Year
H-1
21
1 M
ixin
g R
ati
o (
pp
tv)
Measured Atmospheric Concentrations of Halon-1301 at Cape Grim, Tasmania
(Source: Stratopheric Ozone 1996)
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998Year
H-1
30
1 M
ixin
g R
ati
o (
pp
tv)
20/08/98 8
Developing Countries
Ten years ago, the share of the developing countries and the Russian Federation (then USSR) in the total production of CFCs was 15%. In 1996, it is 80%. For Halons it was 7% ten years ago and 100% now.
20/08/98 9
CFCs and Halons Production by Developing Countries
20/08/98 10
Ozone Depletion
The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.
Given full Implementation of the Montreal Protocol by all countries, the Ozone Layer will recover by the middle of the 21st century.
20/08/98 11
The Multilateral Fund
The Multilateral Fund of the Protocol has been very successful. It has so far disbursed over $ 768 million to more than 100 developing countries to phase out more than half of their CFC consumption. It will continue assistance till the phase out is completed.
20/08/98 12
Multilateral Ozone Fund CumulativeFunds Approved and CFC Tonnes Phased Out
( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year
OD
P T
on
ne
s o
f C
FC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
US
$ M
illio
n
Cumulative ODP Tonnes
Cumulative Funds Approved
The Multilateral Ozone Fund
20/08/98 13
CEIT Countries
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is assisting the Russian Federation and other Eastern and Central Europe countries to implement the Montreal Protocol.
It has so far sanctioned US$ 111 million to 11 countries. The countries that have been assisted: Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine.
Consumption of CFCs in these countries has decreased from 150,000 tonnes in 1986 to about 20,000 tonnes in 1996. It is hoped that with the support from GEF, these countries will complete their phase-out by the year 2000.
20/08/98 14
If there were no Protocol, .....
The ozone depletion by the year 2050 would have been at least 50% in the mid latitudes in the northern half of the earth, 70% in the mid latitudes of the south, about 10 times larger than today. The UV-B radiation would have doubled in the north and quadrupled in the south in the same places. The ozone depleting chemicals in the atmosphere would have been 5 times larger.
The implications of this increase would have been horrendous - 19 million more cases of non- melanoma cancer, 1.5 million cases of melanoma cancer, 130 million more cases of eye cataracts
20/08/98 15
Without Montreal Protocol ...
Larger Ozone Losses AvoidedOzone-Damaging Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Year
Ab
un
da
nc
e (
pa
rts
pe
r tr
illio
n)
No Protocol
MontrealProtocol
Copenhagen Amendments
Annual Deaths from Melanoma and Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Averted Due to Montreal Protocols (Mean Estimate)
(Source: Global Benefits abd Costs of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
De
ath
s A
ve
rte
d
Non-Melanoma Deaths
Melanoma Deaths
Total
20/08/98 16
Challenges
There are many challenges to be overcome before we celebrate.
Many parties are yet to ratify the Amendments to the Protocol, which included controls on more chemicals. 166 parties ratified the Protocol. Only 123 ratified London Amendment and 80 the Copenhagen Amendment.
20/08/98 17
Ozone Protocol and Amendments Ratification Status(Information provided by the Depositary, the UN Office of Legal Affairs, New York, as of August 4th,1998)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Number of Countries
Vienna Convention (167)
Montreal Protcol (166)
London Amendment (123)
Copenhagen Amendment (80)
Montreal Amendment (2)
20/08/98 18
Ratification Status of the Montreal Protocol
Countries that have NOT Ratified the Montreal Protocol (24 Countries)
Sierra LeoneSomaliaEquatorial GuineaAlbaniaArmeniaAfghanistanBhutanCambodiaIraqKazakhstanKyrgyzstanLao (PDR)OmanPalauHaitiAndorraSan Marino
AngolaCape VerdeDjiboutiEritreaGuinea-BissauRwandaSao Tome & Principe
20/08/98 19
Challenges (continued)
Russian Federation and other countries of former USSR are yet to implement their obligations. They promised to do so by the year 2000.
Illegal flow of CFCs to the industrialised countries is of concern. Potential for spread of Methyl Bromide to more countries and more
applications is of concern. Now it is used only in some countries for a small number of crops.
The developing countries, some of whom have increased their consumption so far, as allowed by the Protocol, have to begin their phase out with a freeze from 1 July 1999.
20/08/98 20
Challenges (continued)
Developing countries are concerned about increasing flow of CFC products, for example, refrigerators, to their countries from countries who have adopted Ozone safe products. This will increase their demand for CFCs for maintenance of these products.
Global warming could increase ozone depletion. Also, HFCs, now used as alternatives for CFCs in some applications, have global warming potential and are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. The interconnections need to be studied.
20/08/98 21
Global Warming Potential of some Ozone Depleting Substances and Alternatives
0.022
0.055
0.065
0.1
0.11
0.6
0.6
0.8
1
1
1
1.1
3
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
HFC-134a
HFC-32
HCFC-124
HCFC-22
HCFC-142b
Methyl Chloroform
HCFC-141b
Methyl Bromide
CFC-115
CFC-113
CFC-11
CFC-114
CFC-12
Carbon Tetrachloride
Halon-1211
Halon-1301
Ozone Depletion Potential (CFC-11 = 1)(Source: The Montreal Protocol)
20/08/98 22
Worldwide Production of CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs(Production as reported by AFEAS member companies)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year
103 M
etr
ic T
on
ne
s
CFCs (11,12,113,114,115)
HCFCs (22,141b,142b)
HFC (134a)
20/08/98 23
Lessons of the Montreal Protocol
Precautionary principle, signals to industries, integration of science with policy, recognition of the special situation of the developing countries, common but differentiated responsibility, flexibility to take into account scientific and technological developments over time.
20/08/98 24
Countries that have Not Ratified the Montreal Protocol
Albania Armenia Angola Cape Verde Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Guinea-Bissau Rwanda Sao Tome & Principe Sierra Leone Somalia
Haiti Andorra San Marino Afghanistan Bhutan Cambodia Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao (PDR) Oman Palau