IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Progress toward Global Energy Transitions: U.S. Launch of IEA’s Hydrogen and Nuclear ReportsDave Turk, Head of Strategic Initiatives Office, International Energy AgencyCSIS, 16 July 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
2018 – a remarkable year for energy
Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices
Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mtoe
CoalOil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
World energy efficiency improvements are slowing
2018 saw a worrying slowdown in efficiency, despite IEA analysis showing huge untapped potential in all sectors
Average annual change in primary energy intensity, 2010-18
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2018
The need to accelerate clean energy transitions is underscored by CO2 emissions reaching a record high in 2018
Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions
- 200
0
200
400
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MtCO2
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Where do we need to go? And how do we get there?
There is no single solution to our energy challenges: while efficiency & renewables account for the bulk of abatement, a host of other technologies including nuclear, CCUS, hydrogen & storage are also required
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2020 2030 2040
Gt C
O2-
eq
Efficiency
Renewables
NuclearCCUSFuel-SwitchingOther
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2019
Power Renewable power
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Hydropower
Bioenergy
Geothermal
CSP
Ocean
Nuclear power
Gas-fired power
Coal-fired power
CCUS in power
Fuel supply Methane emissions from oil and gas
Flaring emissions
Industry Chemicals Iron and steel Cement Pulp and paper Aluminium CCUS in industry & transformation
Transport Electric vehicles Fuel economy Trucks & buses Transport biofuels Aviation Shipping Rail
Buildings Building envelopes Heating Heat pumps Cooling Lighting Appliances & equipment Data centres and networks
Energy storage Hydrogen
Smart grids Demand response
Energy integration
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
PV and bioenergy: only renewables fully “on track”
Despite PV’s stalling capacity expansion, prospects are optimistic for continuous growth;bioenergy’s tracking status is improved due to positive policy developments in China and India
Renewable electricity generation by technology
0
2 000
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16 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
Ocean
CSP
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Hydropower
Historical Forecast SDS
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Overall renewables growth hinges on solar PV
The main reason behind the lack of acceleration in PV’s growth was China’s policy change to control the pace of expansion, tackle subsidy cost and curtailment challenges and ultimately achieve a more sustainable PV growth
Global net renewable capacity additions
0
25
50
75
100
125
Solar PV Wind Hydro Bioenergy
GW
2015 2016 2017 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
A significant scale-up of CCUS efforts will be required globally
With only 2 large scale projects operating today, CCUS remains well off track to reach SDS level of 350 MtCO2 per year
CCUS in power
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Mt C
O2
Existing capacity Current developments SDS
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030
mill
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cars Others
United StatesEuropeChina
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mill
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cars Others
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SDS
2018 was another record-breaking year for global electric car sales
The global electric car stock surpassed 5 million in 2018, of which nearly two-thirds are battery electric vehicles
Global electric car stock
BEV = battery electric vehiclePHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
Electric vehicles
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Energy storage is again on track with the transition – but depends heavily on policy support
New markets have emerged quickly (SE Asia, South Africa) when policy became more favourable; continued growth in behind-the-meter storage depends on market frameworks
Annual battery storage installations
0
1
2
3
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Stor
age
capa
city
(GW
)
Other
China
Japan
Korea
US 0
1
2
3
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Behindthe Meter
Grid-scale
Energy storage
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Global public R&D investment in clean energy needs to rise further
Public R&D in clean energy increased to USD 22 billion, but amounts to just 0.1% of total government spending
Total public spending on low-carbon energy R&D
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USD
(201
8) b
illio
n
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USD
(201
8) b
illio
n
Rest of World
Canada
China
Japan
Europe
US
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
A record year for venture capital investment in clean energy
Early-stage VC investment in energy tech start-ups reached USD 6.9 billion, mostly focused on low-carbon (especially transport)
Global venture capital investment in energy technology companies
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Avg.2007-11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USD
(201
8) b
illio
n Other energy
Other clean energy
Energy efficiency
Other renewables
Bioenergy
Solar
Transport
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The new geography of energy…
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed
Energy demand
2000
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Mtoe
2001
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Mtoe
2002
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
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India
Southeast Asia
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2003
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
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India
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2004
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
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China
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2005
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European Union
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India
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2006
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1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
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India
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2008
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
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India
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2009
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
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India
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2010
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
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Africa
Middle East
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2011
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2012
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
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Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2013
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2014
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2015
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2016
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2017
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2018
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2019
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2020
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2021
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2022
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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2023
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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2024
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2025
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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2026
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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Mtoe
2027
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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2028
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
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2029
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
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European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
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2030
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2031
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2032
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2033
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2034
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2035
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2036
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2037
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2038
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2039
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
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2040
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
Africa
European Union
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2040
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
Africa
European Union
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Low-carbon electricity generation worldwide by source, 2018Low-carbon electricity generation in advanced economies by source, 2018
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Nuclear Hydro Wind Bioenergy Solar PV
TWh
Nuclear is a leading source of clean electricity today
Nuclear power provided 10% of electricity supply worldwide in 2018, while in advanced economies, it has been the largest clean source of electricity for over 30 years
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Nuclear power has avoided CO2 emissions for 50 years
Without nuclear power, CO2 emissions from electricity generation would have been almost 20% higher over the period
Cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by nuclear power worldwide, 1971-2018
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Gt C
O2 Developing economies
Other advanced economiesCanadaKoreaJapanUnited StatesEuropean Union
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Share of non-fossil electricity is same now as it was 20 years ago…
The decline in nuclear power's share in electricity generation has entirely offset the growth in share of renewables since late 1990s
Share of energy sources in global electricity generation
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1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018
Others
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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
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rage
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(yea
rs)
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The nuclear fleet is ageing
Many nuclear power plants in advanced economies are facing retirement as they approach the end of their original 40-year design lifetime.
Age profile of nuclear power capacity in selected regions
United States Canada European Union Japan India Korea China
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Nuclear could face a steep decline in advanced economies
Without additional lifetime extensions or new projects, nuclear capacity in advanced economies would decline by two-thirds by 2040.
Nuclear power capacity (operational) in advanced economies in the Nuclear Fade Case, 2018-2040
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2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW
Other advanced economies
Japan
Canada
United States
European Union
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Lower nuclear raises CO2 emissions and supply costs
Lower nuclear raises fossil fuel use and power sector CO2 emissions by 5% to 2040,raising investment needs by close to $600 billion to 2040 and supply costs to consumers
Change in key indicator in advanced economies in the Nuclear Fade Case under current policies, 2019-2040
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T&D
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Billio
n US
D (2
017)
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Total electricity supply costs
Billio
n US
D p
er y
ear (
2017
)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Nuclear lifetime extensions provide cheap clean electricity
Nuclear lifetime extensions are cost-competitive with new solar and wind, and provide a dispatchable source of clean electricity
Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in the United States by technology in 2018
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Solar PV Windonshore
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Coal supercritical
Gas combined
cycleNuclear Renewables Fossil fuels
USD
per
MW
h
Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in the European Union by technology in 2018Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in Japan by technology in 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Policy recommendations for countries pursuing nuclear power
Ensure a sound framework for lifetime extensions:
• Value the clean nature of nuclear power and contributions to electricity security
• Clarify safety requirements for longer life and more flexible operations
Support new construction:
• Establish appropriate frameworks to reduce financial risks
• Maintain technical competencies related to nuclear power
• Pursue research & development of new technologies (e.g. small modular reactors)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The Future of Hydrogen
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Hydrogen – A common element of our energy future ?
• Momentum currently behind hydrogen is unprecedented, with more and more policies, projects and plans by governments & companies in all parts of the world
• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges
Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options & tapping their full potential
Decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors – steel, chemicals, trucks, ships & planes
Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing flexibility to balance grids
• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructure needs to be developed; cleaner hydrogen is needed; and regulatory barriers persist
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Hydrogen is already part of the energy mix
Dedicated hydrogen production is concentrated in very few sectors today, and virtually all of it is produced using fossil fuels, as a result of favourable economics
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Coal Renewables
USD
/kg
Hydrogen production costs, 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Hydrogen production with CO2 capture is coming online
Low-carbon hydrogen from fossil fuels is produced at commercial scale today, with more plants planned. It is an opportunity to reduce emissions from refining and industry
OperationalPlanned
Facilities with hydrogen production and CCUS
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Global electrolyser capacity additions and average unit size
Electrolyser capacity additions and their average sizes have been growing rapidly in recent years, providing cost reductions from economies of scale and learning effects
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ize (M
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Average project size(right axis)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Renewables hydrogen costs are set to decline
The declining costs of solar PV and wind could make them a low-cost source for hydrogen production in regions with favourable resource conditions
USD/kgH2Long-term hydrogen production costs from solar & wind systems
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The challenge to 2030: expand hydrogen beyond existing applications
Dependable demand from current industrial applications can boost clean hydrogen production; policies & industry targets suggest increasing use in other sectors, but ambition needs to increase
Growth in hydrogen use based on announced policies, 2018-2030
New uses
BuildingsTrucksCarsOther
Growth to 2030, 24 Mt
Chemicals
Refining
Steel
New uses
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Four key opportunities for scaling up hydrogen to 2030
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.