Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Processes:Deliberation, Intuition, and Expertise
CHAPTER 1:
Layout of the Book
• Part 1: overview of problem solving/decision making
• Part 2. Empiricism. Light on stats, more on JDM
• Part 3. Decision making• Part 4. Influence and group
decision making
Terminology
• Problem–Problem solving
• Decision–Decision making
• Judgment
The Problem Space
Navigating The Problem Space
Deliberative Method• State, or “frame,” the problem to be solved;• Identify and prioritize the relevant values, interests and
objectives;• Identify and resolve major uncertainties concerning the
cause of the problem;• Generate a range of plausible solutions or alternative
courses of action;• Predict the consequences of the courses of action and
assess their impact on the relevant interests or objectives.
• Select the course of action that optimizes the interests or objectives to be served (i.e., make a decision);
• Implement, observe and learn from the outcome of the decision.
Evers v. Newport Records
• Anna Wilkins, associate. Luis Trujillo partner• Represent Clyde Evers in breach of contract case• Evers sold custom accounting software to
Newport Records for $600,000. • Newport refuses to pay, saying that the software
does not do what Evers said it would do. • Evers upset that nothing had happened since the
case was filed. Asks Anna to hasten its resolution.
Wilkins: • Contract disclaims any warranty of performance.
-> Proposes summary judgment.
Evers v. Newport Records (con’d)
Trujillo • Judge skeptical about summary judgment. • Evers may have made extravagant oral representations. Even if not
formally binding, they may bias the judge further against summary judgment.
• Written disclaimer is not in the particular typeface required by law. Judge may have the jury determine whether or not the Newport’s president actually read and understood the disclaimer.
• Newport may have a claim against Evers for breach of warranty. The statute of limitations on Newport’s claim—which is shorter than that governing Evers’ claim—is about to run out. Evers’ motion may lead Newport’s lawyer to wake up and file a claim.
• Cost of litigating the motion for summary judgment. – If the motion is denied, Evers’ costs will be increased. – If the motion is granted, Newport Records will likely appeal, with
attendant costs and the possibility of still having to go to trial.
Divergent and Convergent Aspect of Deliberative
Problem Solving
What’s Unusual About This Hand?
System 1 (intuitive) System 2 (reflective)Process Characteristics
Automatic ControlledEffortless EffortfulAssociative DeductiveRapid, parallel Slow, serialProcess opaque Self-awareSkilled action Rule application
Content on which Processes ActAffective NeutralCausal properties StatisticsConcrete, specific AbstractPrototypes Sets
The two-systems model of information processing
Bat and Ball
• Together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10
• The bat costs a dollar more than the ball
How much does the ball cost?
Bat and Ball• Together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10• The bat costs a dollar more than the
ball• How much does the ball cost?• $1.05 (bat) + $0.05 (ball) = $1.10
• We know how to calculate the right answer, but sometimes the answer that “jumps to mind” slips out.
Heuristics
• Mental shortcuts used in judgment and decision making
• Fast and efficient• Serve us well most of the
time… but not always