Presentiment The retro-causality debate
Experimental approachesAnd
Theory
Dick Bierman, University of AmsterdamTowards a science of Consciousness, Stockholm, May 3-7, 2011
Synopsis of this talk• The experimental precursor ‘Presentiment’
– Method & Results• Bems approach
– Method & Results, example retroactive facilitation of recall– Criticism
• Statistical• Ontological
• CIRTS– Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry
• New experiments– Necker Cube: retroactive interference – Retroactive recognition
Bem, D. (2011). Feeling the future, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 407-425.
9 experiments suggesting retrocausal effects.
Presentiment
a feeling about an event in the
future …
Emotion Study (1999)Emotion Study (1999)
Ski
n Conductance
time
6850 msec150 msec
Globisch, J., Hamm, A.O., Estevez, F., and Ehman, A. (1999). Psychophysiology, 36, pp. 66-75.
Fixation stimulus
7 sec
anticipation
response
Published ResultsPublished Results
Baseline had been set at stimulus-onsetAll signals are clamped to 0 there.
Results re-analysis raw dataResults re-analysis raw data
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Samplenumber (0.1sec)
calmeroticanimals
STIMULUS
Animal FearStudyALL DATAPOOLED:N = 38
Baseline set at -7 seconds
Presentiment
• Anticipatory physiology triggered by ‘future’?• Simple stimulus response paradigm• Comparing physiology within subjects
between conditions
e.g. anticipation of picture, random emotional or neutral
Presentiment variables
• Dependent Variables– Skin Conductance – HR– EEG, CNV– BOLD– Blinks, pupil dilation, eye movement
• Independent Variables– Pictures, sounds, shocks, slotmachine
Presentiment Meta-analysis
• 37 studies, 15 different main authors• Mean effect size: 0.29• Combined p <10^-9• Filedrawer fail safe: 670• Gambler’s fallacy
• Mossbridge et al (2011). In press.
Bem’s approach
• Behavioral measures– No physiology because of global replication
• Reversed standard Psychological Paradigms– Manipulation after the measurement
• Decision making• Habituation• Affective Priming• Retroactive memory facilitation
To which category belongs
CarpenterCarpenter
3. Practice exercise
To which category belongs
…........................…........................
2.Surprise Free Recall
Procedure retroactive facilitation of recall
CarpenterCarpenter
1.Visualize words
Random subsample of words
Results Bem studies
• Hypothesis Retroactive Facilitation of Memory– Improved recall performance on words that got
later extra exercise.
• Results Retroactive Facilitation of Memory– (N=150) mean effect size: 0.30 (p<0.01)
• Results all 9 studies– All Bem studies mean effect size: 0.22 (p<10^-10)
Criticism
• Statistical– Using Bayesian stats the null hypothesis is still to
be preferred (Wagenmakers et al, 2011)…..– Over-analyses are not corrected for….– Combination of experimental results is not
allowed….
• Theoretical– Temporal Causality violation is not allowed……
CIRTS• Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry
• Symmetries in physics
• In EM theory–Retarded and Advanced Solution– Initial & Boundary conditions
»Conscious information processing as boundary condition restores time symmetry
• Coherence to account for individual differences
CarpenterHammerTrousers
….
CarpenterHammerTrousers
….
4. Extra exercise
Learn these words
CarpenterCarpenter
Did you see this word before?
3. Recognition Test
..
2.Filler task
Procedure retroactive facilitation of recognition
CarpenterCarpenter
1. Attention task
Random subsample of words
Retro-recognition results
Necker Cube study:retroactive interference
The Necker Cube experiment
time
First button press
Top view is experienced
Secondbutton presswhen experience switches
Change randomly into opaque
Top or Bottom view
Top view duration
19
interference
Retroactive interference Results
(difference = 129, p<0.03)
Effectsize = 0.17
Followed by:
N=153
Results split for experiment
The paradoxes
• Formally RetroCausality equivalent with bw time travel.
• Formally Time Symmetry predicted• But ……. philosophical ‘grandfather like’
paradoxes– Synchronicity protection postulate (Hawkins)
• Never allow time travel near grandfather• Never allow psi to become useable.
Conclusion
• Retrocausality is physically not impossible – See also Helmut Schmidt in Foundations of Physics
• Empirical evidence needs independent replication.– But replication runs against the ‘Synchronicity
Protection’ • Experiments have to be set up to avoid
paradoxes (can’t use the information from the future)
Thanks
• The Amsterdam & Groningen Universities
• Bial Foundation
• Eva Lobach, Stephen Whitmarsh, Jacob Jolij, Victor Lamme and many students