NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND ENTIRELY SHAREABLEPurpose+, Amstel 95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Technology
Visual 59: Technology will shape the 21st century in new ways
Source: Richard Lipsey, Kenneth Carlaw, Clifford Bekhar; Fit for The Future, PwC, (2014), Purpose+ team, Gareth Morgan (Images of Organisations, 1986)
16th & 17th century 18th century 19th century 20th century 21st century
?
Printing Steam engine
Factories
Internal combustion
Iron steamship
Electricity
Railway
Biotechnology
Internet
Lean production
Computer
Mass production
Aeroplane
Automobile
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
3D printing
Interconnectivity
Neural implants
Artifical IQ
Health tech
Critical inventions over time, including the 21st century
Visual 60: China is leading the dance when it comes to robotization
46,000
6,000
25,000
46,000
160,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
United States India Germany South Korea China
Estim
ated
ann
ual s
hipm
ents
of m
ultip
urpo
se in
dust
rial r
obot
s
2014 2015 2016 2019F
Sources: International Federation of Robotics (2016)
Visual 61: GDP per capita and household incomes have de-coupled
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.019
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2015
-01-
01
Rel
ativ
e in
crea
se o
ver t
ime,
198
4 =
100
Real GDP per capita, 1984 = 100 Real median household income, 1984 = 100
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, dataset August 2017
Visual 62: Corporate profits are on the rise
0.0
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1000.0
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1600.0
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2000.019
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12-0
3-01
2014
-02-
0120
16-0
1-01
Qua
rterly
pro
fits,
in b
illion
s of
USD
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, dataset August 2017 Note: U.S. data
Visual 63: More recent recessions see a slower recovery of jobs
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, author analysis, based on work by www.calculatedriskblog.com
-10000
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-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Job
loss
es/g
ains
, non
-farm
jobs
, per
mon
th, U
.S.
Time in months
1945 recession, 1944 = 0 1953-1954 recession, 1953 = 0 1957-1958 recession, 1957 = 0
1981-1982 recession, 1981 = 0 2001 recession, 2001 = 0 2007-2009 recession, 2007 = 0
* X = 0 means December of previous year is set to 0, e.g. December 1943 for 1944
Visual 64: The smile represents the new ‘high value’ areas
Source: original ‘smile curve’ from Stan Shih (Founder of Acer)
Value add
Value chain
‘Inputs’R&D, Design, Branding
‘Markets’Sales, Advertising, After-sales service
Industrial era
Today
‘Manufacturing’
Sources: OECD Insights – Economic Globalisation: Origins and Consequences; McKinsey, No Ordinary Disruption; The Zero Marginal Cost Society (Jeremy Rifkin, 2014); Rise of the Robots (Martin Ford, 2015)
Visual 65: Time to reach 50M users has dramatically shortened
38
13
43
1 0.750
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Radio TV Ipod Internet Facebook Twitter
Tim
e in
yea
rs
Visual 66: ‘Winner takes all’ models increasingly influence markets
77%
23% Google & FacebookAll others
43%
56%
Amazon
All others
75%
25%Uber
Lyft
Online advertising, U.S.
Online B2C sales, U.S.
Ride-sharing, U.S.
72%
28% Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent
All others
Online advertising, China
Online B2C sales, China
Ride-sharing, China
57%
43% Alibaba
All others
99%
1%
Didi
Others
Sources: Statista, Business Insider, South China Morning Post
Visual 67: Cryptocurrencies are becoming accepted payments
$269,953
$541,722,554
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
1/3/09 0:00 1/3/10 0:00 1/3/11 0:00 1/3/12 0:00 1/3/13 0:00 1/3/14 0:00 1/3/15 0:00 1/3/16 0:00 1/3/17 0:00
USD
per
day
Total value in USD of trading volume on major bitcoin exchanges, per day
Sources: www.blockchain.info
Visual 68: The value of cryptocurrency coins has yet to stabilize
$13.40$176.50
$4,219.04
0
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Valu
e in
USD
Average market price per bitcoin across major bitcoin exchanges
Sources: www.blockchain.info
Visual 69: Artificial intelligence represents major business opportunity
1,378.19 2,420.364,065.99
6,629.4410,529
16,241.52
24,161.77
34,381.76
46,519.61
59,748.54
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Expe
cted
reve
nues
in A
I mar
ket,
USD
, in
milli
ons
Sources: forecast by Tractica, Statista
Visual 70: AI will grow to outsmart humans on every dimension
Source: Superintelligence, Nick Bostrom (2014); Whole Brain Emulation, Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)
Speed of computing elements
Speed of communication
Number of computational
elements
Storage capacity
Reliability
Human level intelligence... ...computing power today...
Today’s processors operate at over ~3GHz, already seven orders of magnitude larger. Parallel ’neural network’ computation is on the rise.
Computers can theoretically send signals through photons – reaching the speed of light: 300.000.000m/sec.
Computer hardware is indefinitely scalable. Supercomputers can be warehouse-sized, and are already linked to each other through internet.
Computer RAM can theoretically expand indefinitely, as well as the long term storage capacity.
Biological neurons operate at a peak speed of only ~200Hz; but is compensated by massive parallelizationand energy efficiency of operations.
Biological axons can achieve speeds of 120m/sec through pathways in the human body.
Humans brains are limited by cranial volume and have ~100 billion neurons. But: humans could theoretically be linked to each other.
Human beings can hold no more than 4-5 chunks of information in their working memory. Size of long term memory is estimated to be 10^15 bits*.
Biological neurons are not very reliable when tired. Brains decay after a few decades. Restoring brain tissue is notoriously hard, or even impossible.
Transistors are more reliable than neurons, can be replaced easily and reverse engineered with similar content as previous transistors when damaged.
* Based on a study by Landauer (1986); assumption is ~1 bit per synapse in the brain. Note that the total storage capacity calculated is less than is currently stored on a smartphone. ** For the long term. Short-term, human brains are still superior to computers in at least some aspects.
...and expected winner**
Visual 71: The 21st century may see the rise of ‘superintelligence’
-10
0
10
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30
40
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Estim
ated
com
putin
g po
wer
, cal
cula
tions
per
sec
ond
per
1000
USD
One human brain
All human brains
Mouse brain
Insect brain
Computing power
Source: Ray Kurzweill, www.kurzweilai.net, The Singularity is Near (2005)
For more information
• Rens ter Weijde• Mail: [email protected]• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/rensterweijde